Capitol - Your Illinois News Radar » *** UPDATED x1 *** Watch out for these bad polls
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
*** UPDATED x1 *** Watch out for these bad polls

Tuesday, Aug 2, 2016

* From a July 6-10, 2016 Anzalone Liszt Grove Research poll of 606 likely Illinois voters when asked about their cell phone usage…

* Every responsible pollster has already taken note of this trend and adjusted accordingly. So, this move is no surprise

As more Americans have made a mobile phone their main phone, polls that contact only landline phones look increasingly behind the times. HuffPost Pollster has decided we need to evolve.

By the end of last year, 48 percent of American adults didn’t have a landline phone. Another 16 percent had a landline but relied mostly on their mobile phone to make and receive calls.

That’s 64 percent of Americans who are only or primarily reachable via mobile phone. The numbers go even higher for those under age 45 and for minorities. Sixty percent of Hispanic adults don’t have a landline at all, and more than two-thirds of Americans between ages 25 and 34 rely solely on a mobile phone.

HuffPost Pollster has always sought to base our charts on as many sound polls as possible. As long as a pollster makes a good-faith professional effort to obtain a representative sample of the population, we include the survey’s results. In our opinion, polls that call only landlines with no attempt to sample the other half of the population no longer fit that description. So from now on, we will no longer include the results from landline-only telephone polls in our charts.

* So, consumer beware. If you see a published poll and it doesn’t include the percentage of mobile phone respondents, you can safely assume that there are no mobile phone respondents, particularly if it’s a robopoll. And media outlets that publish telephone poll results from surveys which don’t include mobile phone users are either clueless or living in the past.

Demand better.

*** UPDATE ***  And right on cue…

A recent poll commissioned by The Illinois Observer shows Governor Bruce Rauner losing in a hypothetical re-election matchup by nine points.

Illinois Working Together Campaign Director Jake Lewis released the following statement regarding Governor Bruce Rauner’s sagging poll numbers:

“It’s no surprise that the vast majority of Illinoisans would not re-elect Governor Rauner. After all, it was Bruce Rauner’s reckless pursuit of his radical, anti-worker agenda that created a crippling and unnecessary budget impasse, devastating the state’s social safety net. Governor Rauner’s term in office has been a total failure since Day One, and the harm that he has inflicted on the people of Illinois may take years to heal. Illinoisans are sick of the governor’s divisive brand of politics that has achieved nothing except causing widespread damage to Illinois’ seniors, families, and economy.

“Though the 2018 election is still some time away, it is clear that Illinoisans have already rejected the extreme Rauner agenda. It is now up to the governor to listen to the people and drop his demands once and for all.”

The “poll” is problematic for numerous reasons. First and foremost, the pollster’s identity isn’t disclosed, which is highly unusual. Second, there is no disclosure of the type of polling that was done, live calls or robocalls. And third, no stats were disclosed on mobile phone users, if any.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Dave Fako - Tuesday, Aug 2, 16 @ 10:35 am:

    This is a very important aspect of public opinion research and Rich is dead on. Any poll you see, is reported on or commissioned by you or your organization should be making a methodologically reliable and sincere effort to secure a representative sample of interviews conducted via cell phone. The percentage and number of cell phone interviews will vary based on where the interviews are conducted and other factors, but not disclosing that cell interviews were conducted or vaguely saying “cell phone interviews were included” without a definitive percentage and number of interviews is a red flag. Its also important to note that IVR (Robo) polls cannot legally call cell phones (significant FCC fines). They must have prior permission, or supplement using interviewers or other techniques to interview cell phone only (CPO) homes. We recognized this trend back in 2002 when our firm first began actively conducting interviews via cell phone (one of the first firms in the country to do so).

    Dave Fako

  2. - Precinct Captain - Tuesday, Aug 2, 16 @ 11:11 am:

    Great information!

  3. - @MisterJayEm - Tuesday, Aug 2, 16 @ 11:16 am:

    “media outlets that publish telephone poll results from surveys which don’t include mobile phone users are either clueless or living in the past.”

    Or they know that the accuracy of a poll has no bearing on its value as click-bait.

    – MrJM

  4. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Aug 2, 16 @ 11:36 am:

    So it’s good news for Durbin that a biased poll, taken before Rauners resources have dug into him, while Rauner is in the middle of a heated standoff, only shows him at 43%?

  5. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Aug 2, 16 @ 11:57 am:

    ===a biased poll===

    It’s not a biased poll as far as I know. It is, however, highly suspect.

  6. - Teddy K - Tuesday, Aug 2, 16 @ 11:57 am:

    Anon @ 11:36

    Not sure if it’s a biased poll because, as Rich points out, we know nothing about it. But, be warned, land line-only polls (if this is one) usually lean Republican.

  7. - Anonish - Tuesday, Aug 2, 16 @ 12:35 pm:

    We can demand better, but given that you need bodies to run cell phone polls and their increasing costs because they have to manually dial the numbers it drives up the cost into prohibitive ranges for many organizations.
    The Pollsters podcast has been discussing a lot of these issues and the growing reliability of online polls.

  8. - Annonin' - Tuesday, Aug 2, 16 @ 1:55 pm:

    Rather than the constant demand polling how about media covering news?

  9. - Come on man! - Tuesday, Aug 2, 16 @ 1:59 pm:

    Not to lead to another tangent but the podcast, The Axe Files with David Axelrod has had a few guests over the last few months dealing with this issue. Reporters and the Press no longer have people in the field talking to people and rely on the laziness of polling.

  10. - JoeMaddon - Tuesday, Aug 2, 16 @ 2:27 pm:

    **drives up the cost into prohibitive ranges for many organizations.**

    Don’t disagree. But polls that don’t include cell phones are pretty worthless at this point.

  11. - Anon - Tuesday, Aug 2, 16 @ 3:13 pm:

    ===It’s not a biased poll as far as I know. It is, however, highly suspect.===

    I think a lot of folks misunderstand the concept of bias vs. validity. One can construct a completely honest and straight forward poll that lacks validity with no attempt for bias.

    What Rich is saying is if your poll is only calling land lines the poll results lack validity.

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

* I don't quite get it
* Revisionist history from the WSJ, but it could've been worse
* Today's quotable
* What's the holdup on AVR?
* Bed-and-breakfast which refused service loses another round in court
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Is Preckwinkle toast?
* "Who’s ‘bailing out’ whom?"
* Where are the other GOP candidates?
* Rauner spokesperson says Madigan claim "absolutely false"
* Republican Party calls White's decision to run again "a gift to Madigan"
* Moody's issues warning on school funding impasse
* Biss again calls on opponents to release tax returns
* Rauner feeling heat on his right flank
* US Rep. Kelly endorses Biss
* If at first you don't succeed...
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Water is wet and Jesse White is running again
* Governor's Day roundup
* Cartoon removed, racism denied
* *** LIVE *** Democrat Day coverage
* Rep. Andersson to retire
* Yesterday's stories

Visit our advertisers...





* On Dem Day, candidates stand united against Tru.....
* Democratic governor candidates say Rauner too l.....
* Feds, State to Conduct Illinois Flood Damage As.....
* Gov hopeful Daniel Biss: Faith that fuels divis.....
* House soundly rejects Rauner's school-aid chang.....
* Rauner spokesperson says Madigan claim “absolut.....

* Officers revive man overdosing at Illinois county court
* State senator suffering from cancer won't seek another term
* Feds, state to conduct Illinois flood damage assessments
* Correction: Illinois School Funding story
* Correction: Civil Unions-Religious Battle story
* Sentence next for Chicago activist with US immigration crime
* Ford to pay up to $10.1M to settle harassment allegations
* EXCHANGE: Workshop plants seed for college, careers
* 2nd co-defendant convicted in 2015 Indiana shooting deaths
* Illinois Democrats gather in Springfield, but not at fair

* Jesse White to seek sixth term as Illinois secretary of state
* Rauner: Trump's comments on Charlottesville 'damage America '
* Rauner's school funding changes fail in House
* Illinois House condemns white supremacists
* House vote on Rauner school veto defeated
* Republicans say school talks scheduled Friday in Chicago
* Rauner blasts 'special deals' for Chicago
* Regulators seek more details on state's first fracking permit
* House won't vote on education bill veto override Wednesday
* Political days bound to be raucous and eventful during Illinois State Fair

* Midlife career change? It's mission, possible
* This new restaurant's gig: Fresh pasta
* Kalamazoo Outdoor Grill is not for sale at any price
* Ford to pay up to $10.1 million to settle EEOC Chicago allegations
* Out with nursing homes, in with home health care

* LETTERS: As Trump falters on environment, some in Congress step up
* Sheriff: Prisoner threw handgun in trash can at Cook County Jail
* US men’s basketball enters a new world — without its stars
* Mitch Trubisky or Mike Glennon? Oddsmakers weigh in on Bears QB issue
* On Dem Day, candidates stand united against Trump, Rauner
* Cash family: Keep Johnny’s name away from ‘hateful ideology’
* Palatine house struck by lightning, catches fire
* Top-10 tastiest NFL stadium noms; 2 new items on Soldier Field’s menu
* Preseason is now a test of Bears QB Mike Glennon’s ‘inner confidence’
* Police: Man arrested after trying to rob Evanston CVS for second time

* Zarlengo's brings homemade Italian ice to the Southland
* Attacker drives van swerving into crowd in Barcelona; at least 13 dead, 1 arrest
* Lincolnshire under boil water advisory, forcing Stevenson to cancel classes
* White nationalists already lost
* Suspicious item at Route 59 Metra station turns out to be cooler bag
* The best way to drink whiskey, according to science
* Sources: Feds made recordings at Cinespace Chicago studios in probe of Teamsters boss
* If you still support Donald Trump
* Buncich denies wrongdoing in Day 9 of corruption trial

» Three Takeaways From Springfield’s (In)Action On School Funding
» Struggling Gary Schools Open Under New Leadership — The State
» Illinois Issues: Cairo Faces Public Housing Crisis
» Rauner Outlines 2018 Campaign Themes: Madigan, Madigan, Madigan
» U.S. Attorney General Slams Chicago (Again) Over Sanctuary Policies
» Illinois House Vote On Rauner School Veto Defeated
» Illinois House Democrats Deal Rauner Symbolic Blow In School-Funding Fight
» Hastert Officially No Longer In Custody; Probation Begins
» Professor Turned Down White Nationalist’s Email Request To Speak At University Of Chicago
» Chicago Public Schools Sinks Further Into Debt

* Jesse White to seek sixth term as Illinois secretary of state
* Bernard Schoenburg: Pritzker to release tax info soon, touts Stratton's mediator skills
* Our View: Keep those consolidation efforts coming
* Rauner: Trump's comments on Charlottesville 'damage America '
* Rauner's school funding changes fail in House
* Illinois House condemns white supremacists
* House vote on Rauner school veto defeated
* Republicans say school talks scheduled Friday in Chicago
* Rauner blasts 'special deals' for Chicago
* Regulators seek more details on state's first fracking permit

* Oops — Edwardsville Library recalls eclipse glasses
* A guide to blockbuster eclipse moments that can't be missed
* Different kind of B&B coming to Bettendorf
* 14 college scholarships awarded By CSBG Advisory Council
* East St. Louis District 189 welcomes students back to school
* ‘Celestial Narratives’ to feature the cosmic works of Michiko Itatani
* Shiloh releases video of golf carts being stolen from Yorktown
* 08-17-17 Brian Barnhart with Donna Pittman of the Champaign Public Library
* PODCAST: Donna Pittman of the Champaign Public Library 8-17-17
* 08-17-17 Brian Barnhart with Kendra Albers and Kim McQueen @ALSChicago

* Trump decries Confederate monument removals, 'history ripped apart'
* Van mows into Barcelona crowd killing several in terror attack
* Free movie matinee Aug. 25 at Vernon Hills library
* Mount Prospect, Prospect Heights, River Trails enter agreement to offer resident rates
* Final Motors on Milwaukee car show to benefit charities

* Trump just gave the most insane press conf...
* Local Legislators Speak Out on Charlottesv...
* Illinois lawmakers blast President Trump's...
* Trump's 'Both Sides' Comments Draw Harsh L...
* Hultgren backs change to Voting Rights Act...
* Genevans respond to Charlottesville event ...
* Unicarriers President James J. Radous III ...
* Oswego Pastor Gives Prayer on US House Flo...
* Trump just gave the most insane press conf...
* Naperville's Lauren Underwood to run for R...

* Durbin: Trump 'sabotaging' ACA, bipartisan......
* Durbin: Trump 'sabotaging' ACA, bipartisan......

* Senator Tammy Duckworth: "What's Wrong wit......
* Duckworth: Keep crop insurance protections......

* Consulate liaisions work together on strategy
* Morris speaks about anniversary of Fair Housing Act
* Rauner: Trump’s Charlottesville comments “damage America,’ and other Chicago news
* What's That Sound? Probably Air Show Practice
* The National Education Association needs to do better in the fight against white supremacy.
* Justifying white supremacy? Their efforts to do so further taint the concept
* George Maher Sheridan Road Mansion Sells, To Be Rehabbed
* Black, Millennial, Female and… Conservative
* U.S. Supreme Court Upholds Religious Liberty in Church Playground Case
* Roskam: Trump's comments about Charlottesville "not acceptable"

* Illinois Awarded Funds to Offer Advanced Training on Detecting Impaired Driving
* Illinois EPA Announces Upcoming Household Hazardous Waste Collection Events
* IEMA Highlights Emergency Preparedness for People with Access and Functional Needs in May - Ready Illinois website offers preparedness tips for people, caregivers
* First Lady Launches Illinois Family Connects
* Governor and Lt. Governor Unveil 2016 Journal of Local Government Shared Service Best Practices

* ASUS ZenFone 4 line of devices unveiled
* Facebook downranks video clickbait and fake play buttons
* Essential Phone will get 2 years of updates, new wireless accessories every few months
* Sprint ‘clarifies’ BlackBerry KEYone bloatware situation, software update coming soon
* Nokia 8, Galaxy Note 8, accessibility rate | #PNWeekly 266 (LIVE at 3pm Eastern)
* Sprint’s ‘exclusive’ Essential Phone pre-orders are underway with Flex Lease discounts
* The Nokia 8 is a 2017 flagship being released only in Europe

* Lopez faces Rangers in second start for Sox
* Terrerobytes: Trials, errors for White Sox bullpen
* White Sox Minor League Update: Aug. 16, 2017
* White Sox hit 4 homers, but Dodgers walk off
* Delmonico adds 2-homer game to historic rise
* Sox homer on 1st pitch in 2nd straight game
* White Sox hit 4 homers, but Dodgers walk off

Main Menu
Pundit rankings
Subscriber Content
Blagojevich Trial
Updated Posts

August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005


RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0

Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller