Is the Bost district now in play?
Friday, Sep 9, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From Republican Congressman Mike Bost’s latest fundraising appeal…
Friend,
Since day one we suspected Nancy Pelosi and her liberal allies would be coming after us… And now it’s been unveiled that Nancy Pelosi’s House Majority PAC has placed $325,000 in television ads to spread lies and smear me before Election Day.
We’re concerned but know fortunately we have friends like you… and today I need your help.
Nancy Pelosi and her DC friends are going to run false and negative attacks in every living room in Southern Illinois, and if we don’t push back we don’t win.
Interesting.
A source close to CJ Baricevic’s campaign said today, “I think it’s a sign that national Democrats are coming around to what our polling says.”
The House Majority PAC could just be seeing if they can move some numbers, but stay tuned.
- Anon - Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:35 am:
DCCC can’t directly contribute to U.S. Senate campaigns.
Throwing money at a congressional race in a traditionally democratic district isn’t a surprise in of itself, but even if you’re not a fan of CJ or think the Baricevic’s campaign doesn’t have a chance, there’s still always the idea that helping the house candidate helps the state wide candidates.
Same logic behind hurting the incumbent congressman that may poll better than the state wide candidates and presidential candidates.
Either way it’s a +1 for CJ.
- A guy - Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:43 am:
It’s like Monopoly money, ain’t it? The pump the big dogs for money in a city/state that isn’t in play nationally. The local dough wants some of it spent in Illinois. They pick a race to drop a few crumbs. Bost’s turn in the barrel. It’ll likely help him raise more and chase more NRCC dollars to him.
It sure doesn’t look in play from here, and I’ve seen these fundraising emails daily from all over. I guess we’ll see.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:47 am:
It’s still early enough, I guess, if you run $325K worth of ads you can test the vulnerability.
I’m not yet sold Bost is on anyone’s radar, and Bost’s ad with his grandkids is another reminder to this district of a known commodity that is Mike Bost.
A second monetary move after the first yields “something” will make me rethink, but the $325K on its own doesn’t make me take pause.
- walker - Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:52 am:
A Guy sees this one clearly.
It’s a modest flier for the national Dems, to please the Illinois donors.
- The Captain - Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:53 am:
It’s a district that should be in play for the Democrats in a presidential year. Baricevic is spending on early TV to try to move the numbers so the DC folks will see good poll numbers and provide the late money. It’s smart, it’s what I would do.
- flea - Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:54 am:
the train has left the station…all Baricevic needs to do is win Metro east district to win
- illini - Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:57 am:
Third attempt -
I’ve said this here before - Bost, in spite of his foibles and warts, seems to have a way of winning elections.
And now he is the “victim” of the evil Nancy Pelosi and the House PAC! Precious.
At least he knows how Forby, Bradley and Phelps feel in their campaigns going up against the Rauner Millions.
I feel so sorry for for Mike.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:57 am:
===It’s a modest flier===
$325K for a week’s buy is not modest.
- Anonymous - Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 12:05 pm:
If DC GOP types ever make “Nancy Pelosi” a drinking game, they’ll all be working out of Betty Ford.
- walker - Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 12:32 pm:
Rich: You’re right, it’s not “modest” in terms of spending. I used the wrong word. What I meant to say was that it doesn’t yet signify an all-in commitment to this campaign.
I wonder whether it means they think they’ve already committed enough to other races, like Schneider.
- JMJ - Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 12:50 pm:
I think Bost is going to have a hard time in the Metro-east area, Rauner has galvanized labor in St Clair and Madison counties. These are not Bost voters and they are ready to not be asleep this time.
- A guy - Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 12:51 pm:
The D’s always explode out of the gate on Labor Day. Let’s see what’s happening on Oct 1 when the sustainable support comes. Modest or not, 325K is enough to please the Pritzker crowd, et al, who need some of their largess to be spent at the local Five and Dime.
Who in the heck knows how to define modest these days?
- Precinct Captain - Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 12:55 pm:
HMP’s model is to play wherever they can get a money match. The national donors give a huge sum and HMP plays if they can get $ from locals in order to double the money. They only play where they have have a match from local donors. It’s really a great model for outside money.
- Anon - Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 1:21 pm:
OW,
===I’m not yet sold Bost is on anyone’s radar===
I suspect it’s always on the radar. There’s only 435 districts and Bost is a freshman incumbent in a district that the Dem carried in 2012, and most of the region has been represented by a Dem in office for years.
I don’t think it was every off the radar — it may not have been as big of a priority as other districts, but Trump’s negatives have made a lot of safe districts even more safe and a lot of competitive districts stronger leaning Democrat.
It’s a very small playing field. Costello’s seat is difficult to overlook.
===$325K for a week’s buy is not modest.===
Rich, you’re forgetting the Rauner donations inflation effect. So many seven and eight digit numbers, that six digits just aren’t good enough.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 2:16 pm:
- Anon -
If all that is true…
Kinda late to drop $325K?
Maybe see what happens with the $325K
The rest of your comment, well said
- GA Watcher - Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 2:22 pm:
So Congressman Bost is following the big, bad House GOP national committee’s playbook to raise funds against the big, bad House Dem national committee. Oh, the irony.
- illini - Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 2:46 pm:
@GAWatcher - typical Bost. Surprise, Surprise, Surprise!!!
- A guy - Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 2:58 pm:
Funny nugget. Isn’t it amazing how quickly we’ve acclimated ourselves to calling this the “Bost District?”
That’s half the battle.
- LessAnon? - Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 3:07 pm:
The metro east is not the blue dog, union Democrat bastion it once was. St. Clair County and the Edwardsville, Glen Carbon parts of Madison County have brought parity to a lot of the political districts in the area. You can’t just prime the union pump and expect big wins anymore. Dwight Kay is probably the biggest illustration next to Bost.
- Anonymous - Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 3:30 pm:
It’s not in play. Trump is up 25 points in the district. I think its more of a coordinated effort to ensure that there is turnout to help Duckworth, Bradley, Phelps, and Forby.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 3:53 pm:
Odds are… the sitting congressman’s band is attached to the district.
That’s how it works, the power of incumbency. Nothing more.