Democratic House candidate John Bartman was appointed to the ballot in July when Rep. Jack Franks (D-Marengo) dropped out of the race to run for McHenry County Board chairman. Bartman is not getting help from the House Democrats, who appear to have all but conceded.
Rep. Franks’ district is solidly Republican. President Barack Obama lost it by 8 points four years ago. Franks has been able to win it because, well, he’s Jack Franks. He talks a good Republican line back home and takes some high-profile votes against his own party. Bartman is no Jack Franks.
Even so, the Republicans say they want to “drown” any possible chance that Bartman may have, particularly in a year like this. So, they’ve launched a negative cable TV blitz, with similar ads on radio and in the mail. As of October 21, Republican candidate Steven Reick had reported $187,000 in contributions since October 1st, which is about $65,000 more than he and the Republicans spent in this district during the entire third quarter.
“You can always judge a person by who their friends are,” the spot begins. “Take John Bartman, a hand-picked 2003 IDOT patronage hire of disgraced Gov. Rod Blagojevich, and chosen political tool of Mike Madigan. Under Speaker Madigan’s watchful eye, Barman will be forced to raise your property taxes to fuel more wasteful government spending for his political boss. You pay more and Bartman will side with his boss.”
As we’ve discussed before, the Republicans truly believe they have found the magic elixir this year by constantly invoking the horribly unpopular Speaker Madigan’s name.
GOP Rep. Dwight Kay, for instance, was quoted in the Belleville News Democrat last week as saying: “The first thing we need to do to get the budget balanced is to see that Mike Madigan goes home.”
That’s a pretty tall order, but if it works electorally and the Republicans hold onto their incumbents like Kay and pick up some Democratic seats, they’ll undoubtedly say that Madigan has become so toxic to his own members that it’s time for him to go.
Some of the Republican ads I’ve seen this year mention Madigan’s name even when it’s not particularly relevant to the ads’ messaging. Perhaps the inclusion gives the attack added weight because Madigan is so unpopular. It’s also likely designed to keep the Republican “theme” going regardless of content. But I have also come to suspect it’s being done so they can claim that they used Madigan in almost all of their negative ads and that’s why they prevailed over the Democrats.
And, hey, if it doesn’t work, well, just look at Gov. Rauner’s comments throughout the summer and fall for a preview of what they’ll say the day after the election.
The governor has repeatedly pointed to Madigan’s “undemocratic” legislative district map, which he says has “rigged” the election against the Republicans. You gotta figure he’ll use that as his excuse if Madigan comes out on top, as well as infinite references to Donald Trump’s expected miserable performance.
But, wait. Aren’t quite a few pundits saying that Trump’s repeated refrain that the election will be rigged hurting him further by depressing his base of support?
They could be right, but Gov. Rauner has added a twist.
“We’ve got a system that is rigged,” Rauner told WAND TV’s Doug Wolfe in late August.
But then he did something that Trump isn’t doing. He talked about a solution.
“We’ve got gerrymandered districts that are shaped like spaghetti noodles in many cases designed to protect incumbents.” So, Rauner said, to fix this, Illinoisans need to support reforms, like redistricting and term limits.
And whenever Rauner says this, he adds that the best way to get those reforms is to elect more people who will work with him, mainly Republicans. And the worst thing to do is to vote for anyone associated with his arch enemy Speaker Madigan.
So, what Rauner is doing is quite clever. He uses Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric without all that “nasty” Trump baggage.
Of course, if Trump does unintentionally depress his own base, that would be really bad news for Rauner, who is counting on that base to turn out and vote his way—which is one reason why he won’t say anything that directly criticizes Trump.
What’s that old saying about the best-laid plans?
Jack Franks the Democrat was able to avoid defeat for 18 years in a Republican district, which makes Rauner’s argument about redistricting reform look just a little silly. The point is, though, strange things happen in politics. Stay tuned.
And the “strange things” admonition is exactly why the Republicans are spending money on what should be a surefire winning district in McHenry County.
- Anonymous - Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 6:57 am:
Gerrymandered or not, the Republicans have not always had the best campaign committee either: Daniels managed one term as Speaker under a GOP drawn map.
- DuPage Saint - Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 7:47 am:
A Cubs year and the Democrats run a guy named Bartman?
- Touré's Latte - Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 7:53 am:
“Fire Madigan” failed to work in the past, and it most likely will fail to work in the present.
- Anonymous - Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 8:25 am:
How many districts actually have contests? There seem to be many incumbents running without any opponents.
- Rabid - Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 8:29 am:
If you don’t like Madigan why don’t you switch parties and vote against him then you can switch back?
- Hey! - Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 9:14 am:
Shouldn’t Biss’s super PAC cut some commercials with both Trump and Rauner repeatedly using the word “rigged”?
- JS Mill - Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 9:48 am:
=“We’ve got gerrymandered districts that are shaped like spaghetti noodles in many cases designed to protect incumbents.”=
I guess when the GOP had their one chance to draw the map it was based on pure geometry?
It is the all around hypocrisy that is running me down. I am gonna vote, for sure, but it won’t be easy.
- disgusted - Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 9:50 am:
Why doesn’t Rauner do some work, instead of being in constant campaign mode! All I hear about is his huge investments in elections. Buy yourself another Republican, Mr. Rauner!
- Scamp640 - Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 9:57 am:
The whole system is rigged, but not the way Rauner is leading us to believe. This discussion of gerrymandered districts in Illinois misses the whole point of the national republican strategy. Republicans currently control 68 of 99 state legislatures. They managed to do this through a purposeful gerrymandering of their respective states as part of a national strategy. Madigan is doing his part to keep Illinois Democratic when a majority of states are Republican. Rauner talks about “fairness” but he is part of the national Republican strategy to turn every state red.
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/11/republicans-gerrymandering-house-representatives-election-chart
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/03/opinion/sunday/the-great-gerrymander-of-2012.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
- Honeybear - Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 10:15 am:
Of course Kay is going to talk about Madigan since he must distract from the devastation to SIUE and most damning the loss of the national geospatial center that as supposed to go to Scott Air Force base. 1000’s of jobs could have been created for the metro east and Kay totally bungled it. That NGA installation was ours to lose. Everyone thought for sure we would get it. Even the Missouri delegation. We totally blew it. Illinois is toxic because of the impasse caused by Rauner backed up by Kay all because they won’t negotiate a budget till Rauner gets his TA and destroys Labor.
- Annonin' - Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 10:23 am:
“Look a little silly” hUH. They have been workin’ the con and it has caught up.
Let’s be honest BigBrain has poured about $46 million in IL GOPie campaigns that benefit turnout and Trump. He is one of Trump’s biggest booster while tryin’ to claim he is not. The line of B* aint workin’ for the BigBrain or his rentals like Dwight or Avery or Long or Severin etc. Tick tock
- PublicServant - Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 10:32 am:
Exactly Scamp640…Rauner wants unilateral disarmament in illinois, when these issues should be handled at the national level. “Evening the playing field” only in states where the field is tilted towards the democrats is typical Republican hypocrisy. Then once the field is “even”, tilt it by purchasing your selected candidate and drowning him in campaign cash
- Stones - Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 10:43 am:
LOL! DuPage Saint beat me to the punch. No Cub fan is going to vote for a guy named Bartman.
- d.p.gumby - Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 10:52 am:
The only solution to the new sophisticated gerrymander is a national constitutional amendment. State by state will not work b/c it depends on the politics in each individual state. Whoever has the state map drawing power will not support…look at the Republican states!
- Last Bull Moose - Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 12:14 pm:
d.p.Gumby
You do realize that states must ratify Federal Amendments.
Not going to happen.
- anon - Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 2:20 pm:
So Republicans in Illinois want redistricting reform, while Republicans in most other states are opposed, since they benefited from GOP gerrymandering. I wonder if Rauner will join with Obama’s post-presidential campaign to reform redistricting nationwide? Why not, if it’s a matter of principle, not simply partisan advantage?
- Property of IDOC - Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 9:25 pm:
Hey @9:14am.
…and be sure to have babies crying in the background.
- gdubya - Tuesday, Oct 25, 16 @ 11:23 am:
I want to see Rauner call on every Republican local elected official across the state to step down after their term limit is up and see how that goes over.