* If you’re following national polling average sites like RCP, you know that the Los Angeles Times/USC poll has shown Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton when pretty much all other polls have shown Clinton ahead. Well it turns out that a single polling “panelist,” who is a 19 year-old Illinois African-American has been skewing the results (of a highly questionable methodology) because he is supporting Trump…
In some polls, he’s weighted as much as 30 times more than the average respondent, and as much as 300 times more than the least-weighted respondent.
Alone, he has been enough to put Mr. Trump in double digits of support among black voters. He can improve Mr. Trump’s margin by 1 point in the survey, even though he is one of around 3,000 panelists.
He is also the reason Mrs. Clinton took the lead in the U.S.C./LAT poll for the first time in a month on Wednesday. The poll includes only the last seven days of respondents, and he hasn’t taken the poll since Oct. 4. Mrs. Clinton surged once he was out of the sample for the first time in several weeks.
How has he made such a difference? And why has the poll been such an outlier? It’s because the U.S.C./LAT poll made a number of unusual decisions in designing and weighting its survey.
Kim Savage, a Democrat from the Chicago suburb of Darien, argues in a Federal Election Commission filing that the DuPage Policy Journal is not an independent newspaper, but controlled by businessman and radio talk-show host Dan Proft through his political action committee, Liberty Principles PAC, which got a $2.5 million contribution last June from Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner.
The paper is one of 14 co-owned by Proft that appeared last spring before the state’s primary elections.
The complaint, filed last week in Washington, maintains the DuPage Policy Journal is illegally coordinating with GOP congressional candidate Tonia Khouri and that its publication costs should be reported as political contributions in her race to unseat incumbent Democratic Rep. Bill Foster.
The PAC, Proft, Khouri for Congress and the Khouri campaign treasurer are named in the FEC document. It contends the DuPage paper is not entitled to a press exemption from campaign finance laws because it’s run by a political organization, is not published regularly, is sent to doorsteps or left in high traffic areas for free and includes “coordinated communications” with a candidate that the law bars for so-called independent expenditure committees.
Look, I do not want the federal government defining what is and is not a legit media company. Progress Illinois does good work, but it gets most of its money from SEIU. I don’t know who funds Illinois Review, but I’m fine with them, too. Stay the heck away.
* Meanwhile, the Proft papers came up in a recent story by David Giuliani at the Ottawa Times…
The chain was started in the winter by the Chicago-based Liberty Principles PAC, which receives much of its money from Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner. Over the summer, a private corporation, Local Government Information Services Inc., took possession of the papers, Proft said.
The company filed its corporate paperwork with the state in mid-August, a few weeks into its management of the papers.
The Times asked Proft how the company makes money with its newspapers.
“I’m certain you don’t understand how newspapers or businesses make money,” Proft said in an email to a reporter. “In addition to ads, have you ever heard of the concept of subscriptions as a revenue source for newspapers, for example? Are you familiar with the concept of seed capital used to launch and grow a business? I didn’t think so.”
Proft said the reporter could not be fair in reporting about his company’s newspapers, suggesting the reporter favors Long’s opponent, Rep. Andy Skoog, D-La Salle.
“That makes you an advocate not a journalist. So please make sure Andy Skoog reports your ’stories’ as in-kind contributions (in his campaign reports),” Proft said in an email.
We’re a more diverse state than many others, so that explains much of it, but not all of it.
…Adding…If you look at the crosstabs from the latest Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll, Clinton leads Trump among all whites 45-35, including leaners. Clinton leads among men 47-35. Men were slightly less than half the sample, but they don’t break results down by gender plus race, so it’s impossible to tell what the white male result is.
Future autonomous Mercedes vehicles will prioritise saving their own occupants in no-win traffic situations, its safety executives have told Auto Express.
The tricky moral question continues to be debated by lawmakers, ethicists and lawyers, but for Mercedes’s Manager of Driver Assistance Systems, Active Safety and Ratings, the answer couldn’t be clearer.
“If you know you can save at least one person, at least save that one. Save the one in the car,” Christoph von Hugo said in an interview at the recent Paris Motor Show.
“If all you know for sure is that one thing, one death, can be prevented then that’s your first priority.
So, go ahead and plow into a big crowd of pedestrians leaving a concert and crossing Michigan Ave. against the light to save the car’s occupant.
* Back to that Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll…
Most Illinois voters say the state budget stalemate is not having an impact on their lives, according to a new poll by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale. […]
The survey of 1000 registered voters was taken Sept. 27-Oct. 2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus three point one percentage points.
Of the total sample, 34 percent said they were personally affected by the crisis while 62 percent were unaffected. Those opinions have varied little during the past year.
Dr. Linda Baker, university professor at the Institute, said “Illinoisans are aware that the budget crisis is no longer an abstract question, but instead something that is growing in significance and having an effect on the state’s ability to attract and retain businesses and residents.”
“One hopeful finding is the increased percentage of Illinoisans who see the solution as a mix of both budget cuts and increasing revenues. Hopefully this can help spur policymakers on both sides of the aisle to consider a compromise that includes solutions offered by both parties,” she said.
David Yepsen, director of the Institute, said “I’m surprised more people aren’t feeling affected by this deadlock in Springfield. I thought the numbers of people impacted would be increasing as it wore on but it’s also true many people aren’t impacted by changes in government services.”
Among those who saw an impact on their own lives, the largest group - at 18 percent - saw the budget stalemate as the cause of their job loss or threat of loss. Another 15 percent saw it as the cause of cuts to general social services and 14 percent perceived it as the source of cuts to K-12 education funding.
* The actual question…
Have you or someone in your immediate family been affected by the Illinois budget stalemate?
Social Services 47.8%
Social services (generally) 14.7%
K-12 education 13.9%
Mental health care 6.5%
Child care costs/services 5.9%
Higher education (including MAP grants) 5.6%
Drug treatment costs/services 1.2%
Local economy 4.7%
City government cuts 2.4%
Highway and road construction/maintenance 2.1%
Facility closure 1.5%
Other 4.4%
Don’t know 6.2%
So, let’s count “you or someone in your immediate family” as households. There are 4.6 million households in Illinois, or about 39,000 in each of the 118 state House districts.
That means, with this particular interpretation (which isn’t quite accurate, but it’s close enough for our purposes here), over 13,000 households in each House district are impacted in some way or another by the impasse. You’d think that would cause a greater response from legislators. I mean, they get all freaked out when a much smaller fraction of that total are upset about something.
* Also, 7,000 households in each House district contained someone who either lost their job or has been threatened by job loss due to the impasse? That’s huge. It probably doesn’t line up with reality, but the perception is gigantic and legislators should beware.
And speaking of not lining up with reality, 14 percent think K-12 funding has been cut, which isn’t the case, but that’s what they think.
*** UPDATE *** Press release…
John Bouman, President of the Sargent Shriver National Center on Poverty Law and Chair of the Responsible Budget Coalition’s Executive Committee, today released the following statement regarding a new Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll measuring opinions on the state budget stalemate in Illinois:
“34 percent of respondents said they were personally affected by the budget crisis. The poll confirms what the Responsible Budget Coalition’s network of advocates and providers already know - over one million people have already been hurt by the loss of jobs and services because of Illinois’ failure to pass a fully funded, responsible budget. Millions more are threatened as the impasse continues.
In the wake of the stopgap budget Band-Aid, news stories about budget impasse have dropped from the front pages. That doesn’t cover the fact that real people and businesses continue to be negatively impacted by the direct and indirect costs of the collective failure to produce a real budget.
These numbers should get the attention of lawmakers who have turned their eyes away from Springfield in favor of a focus on elections. The effects of inaction are felt by voters in every legislative district. While the poll clearly shows that voters favor differing approaches to resolving the crisis, they all want it solved responsibly and quickly.”
Illinois Policy’s Diana Rickert said in a response to Illinois Playbook: “Rich’s comments are strange. The film crew is top notch, and was very forthcoming about the scope of the documentary and our involvement when asked who was funding the project. We’ve been critical of Speaker Madigan and his political machine for many years, so we’re certainly not shy about our work on this issue. It’s not like Rich was stopped on the sidewalk in Springfield and caught off-guard with a random guy filming with his iPhone; the interview was scheduled in advance, he signed a release form and he even went out for drinks with the film crew after they were done. Our research was used as the premise of many questions. Some of the other interviews for our documentary were even filmed in our Chicago office.”
Papola admitted he kept many of the subjects in the dark about Illinois Policy Institute’s involvement in the project. “I know there’s been some controversy in the local press … Because this was an independent project, because that was a condition of us coming on board, because we know Illinois Policy takes stances on issues, we treated this in much of the same way we handled our other projects … The partners or financiers of the film was really not something — that was kept close to the vest as far as myself and the head of production and the field team wasn’t really armed to talk about that.”
* The Institute was also far more involved with the content than Rickert initially admitted. The production company didn’t just use the Institute’s research, an Institute employee wrote the script…
Illinois Policy “gave us creative control over the project,” Papola said after the event. Then he explained that the film’s writer was Austin Berg, who works for the Policy Institute.
Creative content — After he was pressed, Papola said Berg: “was bringing lots of material to the table … Austin brought a wealth of knowledge to the table that would have been very difficult for us to produce from scratch.”
So they hired John Papola, an “award-winning documentary filmmaker” from Texas who hails from the East Coast and probably couldn’t find Springfield without Google Maps. Papola then made a movie channeling the exact narrative that Rauner and the Illinois Policy Institute embrace. […]
Berg assured me after Tuesday’s screening at the Siskel Center that the movie was financed by the organization’s “thousands of contributors,” not any particular billionaire.
But Papola swears he took a journalistic approach and had final creative control. As far as adopting the Policy Institute’s point of view of Madigan, Papola said he didn’t see how anyone could hold any other opinion after reviewing the facts — that were spoonfed to him by the Policy Institute.
* And then there’s weird stuff like this…
Odd portrayal of Blago impeachment — seems to suggest it's due to Madigan, doesn't mention um, federal case against him.
A little bit of naughty language at the end, so be careful at work, but it’s pretty darned funny…
From the same people who brought you fake newspapers, fake radio networks, and fake policy institutes comes the fake documentary Gov. Rauner (fake) says he didn’t pay for.
And then Sgt. Schultz makes an appearance. Whoever did that is brilliant.
Most Illinois voters say the state budget stalemate is not having an impact on their lives, according to a new poll by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.
Voters also remain divided over how to fix the state’s budget woes. There are 44 percent who favor cuts, 12 percent who favor tax increases and 33 percent who favor both.
Except respondents weren’t asked about actual “cuts.”
* The question…
The state of Illinois has a budget deficit of over 9 billion dollars. I’m going to read three statements that people have made about how to fix the deficit, and ask you which one comes closest to your views. If you haven’t though much about this issue, just tell me that.
· Illinois’ public programs and services have already been reduced significantly. We can only fix the problem by taking in more revenue, such as a tax increase. (12.1%)
· The state takes in plenty of money to pay for public services, but wastes it on unnecessary programs. We can only fix the problem by cutting waste and inefficiency in government. (43.9%)
· Illinois’ budget problem is so large it can only be solved by a combination of budget cuts and revenue increases. (33.1%)
Emphasis added because when you phrase a question like that, of course people are gonna choose cutting all that wasteful spending from that horrible state government. Give them a list of $9 billion in program cuts, however, and you’ll watch them run away screaming in panic like most legislators do.
Several suburban Republicans in Congress would not say Monday whether they are following House Speaker Paul Ryan in his decision not to defend or campaign for their party’s nominee for president. […]
U.S. Rep. Peter Roskam of Wheaton, previously the No. 4 member of the House who’s worked closely with Ryan, called Trump’s comments and the attitude that they reflect “disgusting and corrosive. They fly in the face of every lesson (my wife) Elizabeth and I taught our daughters and sons about how men and women should interact.”
Asked whether Roskam still intended to vote for Trump, Roskam spokesman Davis Pasch would not comment.
Roskam, in his statement, said of Trump: “He says he has changed and this is not who he is today. Political figures in the past have claimed to change, and some of them have been sincere. Donald Trump is the only person who can prove he means what he says now, and he’s got work to do.”
Just hours after saying U.S. Rep. Peter Roskam was planning to vote for Donald Trump, spokesman David Pasch on Tuesday rescinded the remark.
Instead, Pasch released a written statement saying Roskam is undecided on how he will vote Nov. 8.
“Hillary Clinton has already disqualified herself by her actions and deeds,” Pasch wrote in an email Tuesday afternoon. “Donald Trump has 28 days left to convince him (Roskam) that he’s the right person to fix our broken tax code, bring accountability to the federal government, and restore American leadership to the world stage.”
* The NRSC is airing an ad that is approved by the Mark Kirk campaign which attacks Tammy Duckworth again on the VA whistleblower issue…
I’m told the Kirk campaign has found no images of Duckworth with Speaker Madigan. Too bad. They’re about the only campaign in the state without a “Because… Madigan!” angle.
The ad features two whistleblowers at suburban Edward Hines Jr. VA hospital who said they voiced concerns to Duckworth as a congresswoman and said she failed to act.
“I think the reaction Congresswoman Duckworth had was one of avoidance and denial,” said Dr. Lisa Nee, a cardiologist. Germaine Clarno, a union social worker, said of Duckworth, “Nothing happened. I’m yelling and screaming that our veterans are being harmed.”
A female narrator closes the ad by saying, “Tammy put political ambition before our veterans. That’s shameful.” […]
Duckworth’s campaign has said it raised $4.1 million from July through September and had $4.3 million left to start the month. Kirk’s camp had not revealed similar numbers that are due Saturday.
A super PAC created specifically to bolster Sen. Mark Kirk’s GOP re-election bid is a stark example of how mega-donors legally skirt federal caps on individual contributions.
Fueled by jumbo donations, the Independent Voice for Illinois super PAC has spent more than $1 million in negative television ads attacking Kirk’s Democratic opponent, Rep. Tammy Duckworth. […]
As of June 30, the latest FEC report, the largest donors to Independent Voice are two of the biggest Republican donors in the nation.
Chicago’s Ken Griffin, the founder of the Citadel financial services firm, pumped $350,000 into Independent Voice.
Paul Singer, the New York hedge fund mogul who in the last week made the Washington Post’s list of the 10 mega-donors of the 2016 cycle, sent $250,000 to the fund.
The GOP wing of the Cubs-owning Ricketts family sent $50,000 through one of their super PACs, too.
* Phillip O’Connor, a former Republican member of the Illinois State Board of Elections and former chairman of the Illinois Commerce Commission under Jim Thompson plans to vote for Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein in order to help Gov. Bruce Rauner…
If Stein receives 5 percent or more of the presidential vote in Illinois on Nov. 8, then the Green Party will qualify as an “established political party,” making it eligible to place a full slate of candidates on the 2018 statewide ballot. A Green Party candidate for governor in 2018 will attract several percentage points of the total vote — most of it coming at the expense of the Democratic nominee.
In 2014, Rauner defeated incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn by less than 5 percent of the vote. At the same time, the Libertarian gubernatorial candidate garnered more than 3 percent, much of it coming from voters who might otherwise have voted for Rauner.
The Libertarian presidential candidate, Gary Johnson, propelled by a thoughtful endorsement from the Chicago Tribune, will almost certainly exceed that 5 percent threshold in Illinois, guaranteeing a Libertarian gubernatorial candidate in 2018. […]
Illinois needs the sort of political tension that Rauner has brought as governor. Even those who do not agree with his positions ought to concede that Illinois should no longer go on as a one-party state. We should not return to the time when the only meaningful policy debates are within the Democratic Party, with one group of Democrats arguing for more taxes and spending while the other faction argues for even more taxes and spending. […]
So, I will make my vote count now for Gov. Rauner in 2018 by voting for the Green Party presidential candidate this year.
Back in 2006, Green Party gubernatorial candidate Rich Whitney got over 10 percent of the vote, but Democrat Rod Blagojevich still beat his GOP opponent by 10 points. That was a darned good year for Democrats, however.
* Comptroller Leslie Munger’s new TV ad throws Mike Madigan, career politician, double-dipping, unbalanced budgets, tax hikes and pension holidays at her Democratic opponent Susana Mendoza…
* Script…
Meet Susana Mendoza, Mike Madigan’s political sidekick.
Mendoza has taken “career politician” to a new level. She collected two public salaries at the same time, raking in almost $2 million in taxpayer money and building two pensions.
And how does she pay for her double-dipping? Mendoza voted for unbalanced budgets, tax increases and even pension holidays that forced Illinois into a fiscal crisis. She even voted for the largest tax hike in state history.
Mendoza-Madigan, putting politics above people and Illinois just can’t afford her.
* Response from the Mendoza campaign…
“Leslie Munger’s false, negative ads, including her lie about double dipping - previously debunked by documented proof - are almost entirely bankrolled by just two of Bruce Rauner’s billionaire friends. You can make up a lot of lies with that kind of money, but it doesn’t change that fact that Leslie Munger, Rauner’s self-described “wingman”, is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Governor Rauner, not the independent watchdog Illinois taxpayers desperately need.”
