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Six losses is not “OK”
Tuesday, Nov 8, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller * Sun-Times…
Just an “OK night”? C’mon, man. Madigan has a strong Democratic map with incumbents he mostly chose. That map is so well-drawn that Madigan did not lose a single single House seat during the huge 2014 Republican wave which gave us Gov. Rauner. And, no matter what happens nationally, this is a Democratic year in Illinois, unlike two years ago. Madigan has spent about as much as Rauner on his candidates and has benefited from a multi-million-dollar statewide advertising blitz trashing the governor. Money is not the issue most people think it is. Not to mention that Madigan has a far superior organization and ground game - two of the most important aspects of any campaign at this level. * If Madigan loses six net seats, then that means Rauner’s “Because… Madigan!” campaign worked as planned. And that means the Democrats are gonna have to totally rethink everything, including Madigan’s party leadership, ahead of 2018, which (barring a Donald Trump victory today) will not be a favorable year like this year. Because if the message works this year, it will sure as heck work again in two years. …Adding… From comments…
It’ll be tougher to get those other seats because they’re stronger districts. But the commenter isn’t wrong. Six net losses would be very bad news for Madigan. * Related…
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- Big Muddy - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:13 am:
Six seats is a landslide for the GOP. LAND. SLIDE.
If Dem’s lose six seats Madigan would be pushed back onto his heels and 2018 would most certainly spell doom for the man as that cycle will not be nearly as favorable. Would any Dem’s move to the middle or flat-out quit instead of facing that 2018 onslaught? Mussman, Moylan, Kifowit, Willis, Martwick?? Rauner picking up six would be a world-class game changer.
Doubt it happens however.
- lake county democrat - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:14 am:
In Madigan’s slight defense (gag) were that (4-6 seat loss) to happen: it’s also a bit of an anti-establishment election, the Democrats couldn’t expect to do so much random tax hiking (city, county, pushing for state) and not expect to take any hits, Madigan successfully stopped democracy (i.e., protected gerrymandering) and goodness knows how many favors he’s pocketed over the years (plus knowledge of various skeletons) - can’t see him losing the party leadership unless somehow he wanted to (Lisa?)
- Whatever - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:17 am:
Redfield strikes again. Why is he the go-to “analyst” for so many lazy reporters?
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:17 am:
===it’s also a bit of an anti-establishment election===
So was 2014. Didja forget the governor’s race?
- Magic carpet ride - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:18 am:
Maybe if rauners “Because Madigan” is so successful madigan can now start his “Because Rauner.”
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:18 am:
===Madigan successfully stopped democracy===
I’d disagree with that because it’s far too tronc-y. But, either way, that’s on Madigan and his leadership. Those were all his choices.
- Downstate GOP Faithless - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:19 am:
I’m saying net loss of 1 for Madigan. Not equally as important, but still pretty important as the Rauner holds the seats where he essentially handpicked appointments.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:20 am:
The utter lunacy of those who appear to “know” enough to be finally seen as knowing nothing at all
If Rauner wins 6 seats, the “Fire Madigan” premise will finally be proven to be true.
If Rauner wins 6 seats that also nearly a 13% increase in seats for Raunerites with Clinton probably, and Duckworth possibly winning the macro.
Rich rightly points out, the micro that is the Raunerite game right now had a poor (I’m being very polite) record in 2014. Rauner won the macro by peeling IN the baked micro but never “striving” to actually win the micro as a true goal. Otherwise the ground games in 2014 would have been micro centric, not macro runoff of Rauner (which led to nothing)
The benchmark for me is “66″ including Drury’s continued denial of his party, Franks seat lost, but Dunkin’s seat “regained”. That’s 3 seats, and that attainable, and huge. Then throw in the “Munger Must”. Rauner can NOT have Munger lose. Can’t. Can’t happen.
So now the utter ridiculousness of “6″ being “ok”?
Maybe realizing truths not what appears to be real is a better way to go about understanding what’s happening.
Anything less than +3 and the Munger Must is a fail.
Anything above +3 and Munger winning is well beyond “Ok”, it’s spectacular. It would rewrite the playbook and Raunerism would finally end Republicans in Illinois.
- Grand Avenue - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:22 am:
6 seats is halfway to majority - they have 47, the want to get to 60, so if they got halfway there in a Presidential year, I don’t see how they don’t finish the deal in 2018, unless Madigan retires, because he will have been proven toxic.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:26 am:
On the flip side, if Jiminez/Bourne/Munger lose, how will the Raunerites respond between now and 2018? Will a few break ranks?
- DuPage Dave - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:26 am:
Here’s a ground game update. The people working for the Conroy and Cullerton have knocked on my door several times in the last month. I get mailers and robo calls from the Republican candidates but I’ve never seen one knocking on doors.
The last kid to stop by asked if I needed a ride to the polling place. Geez, do I look that old?
- Big Muddy - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:35 am:
=It would rewrite the playbook and Raunerism would finally end Republicans in Illinois.=
I’ll play. What would it do to Democrats in Illinois? If it proves Madigan toxic is Lang or Feigenholz any better? Speaker Currie an improvement?
So would the “new playbook” lead to governing, by both parties? Rauner would have broken the stalemate and have to prove he was correct in doing so, and, you know, govern? Dem’s would have to move to the middle or know they face certain consequences in an off year?
This is just too crazy. So crazy it just might work!
- facts are stubborn things - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:37 am:
6 seats — sure that would move the needle slightly. snark. I don’t think you will see much in the way of democratic seats loss in the Illinois house.
- Amalia - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:39 am:
Someday, somehow, I wish someone could put together an analysis of candidates that evaluates their everyday approach to life with political colleagues. are they pleasant, nice, helpful and collaborative? or are they snarky, phony, yelling at people just to earn points with one group of another? it’s inside baseball for those of us who know people, but if you know someone across the aisle who is a nice person, someone with whom you occasionally work, and you watch them getting destroyed by your own party in an election, it is really horrible.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:41 am:
===What would it do to Democrats in Illinois? If it proves Madigan toxic is Lang or Feigenholz any better? Speaker Currie an improvement?===
I’m not a Democrat so I don’t know what it would do to Democrats.
If Raunerism wins 6 seats, Republicans in Illinois will cease to exist and Diana Rauner, Bruce Rauner, Uihlein and Griffin will use their… not a Republican, it’s the 3 families,… win to gut the rest of what it means to be a Governing Republican and we will see far more destruction to Illinois with Raunerites eager to close Eastern or end Labor.
It’s difficult to see +6 here, but failing to get to +3 is a failure. It’s a failure to the micro. Again.
- Anon221 - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:42 am:
“Because if the message works this year, it will sure as heck work again in two years.”
Maybe. Maybe not. If Rauner does get those seats, “Because Madigan” will lose power. Rauner will have to start doing more actual work. He has “succeeded” with making significant cuts in Illinois simply by freezing contracts, not submitting balanced budgets and letting others take the heat for making what payments could be made (Munger). There are social service providers, students, schools, and businesses that are never coming back, and he considers that “savings” for Illinois. If he skates around the state, continuing his endless campaigin’, insisting on reforms first-governance second, and critical bills fail to pass the House (especially when supermajorities are needed) because Raunerites and/or Republicans refuse to cross the aisle for their constituents, then I see the switch to “Because Rauner”. LIFT is not going to let up. National coverage of what Walker and Brownback have done may pale in significance to the “Civil War” in Illinois. And, a retired POTUS (and First Lady) will also be part of this. Consent decrees are not going away. If the Labor War comes to pass, more long-term pain for little or no gain except for him personally. We passed the “TurnAround” traffic circle months ago, and all we got was dizzy. If the brakes still work on the “trash can van”, it’s time for the GA and the citizens of Illinois to stomp on them.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:43 am:
Re-read Grand Avenue’s comment. S/He isn’t wrong.
- Postbot 6000 - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:45 am:
“- DuPage Dave - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:26 am:
Here’s a ground game update. The people working for the Conroy and Cullerton have knocked on my door several times in the last month. I get mailers and robo calls from the Republican candidates but I’ve never seen one knocking on doors.
The last kid to stop by asked if I needed a ride to the polling place. Geez, do I look that old?”
My guess is they are targeting reliable democrat voters. Campaigns generally don’t waste a lot of resources on lost causes.
- lake county democrat - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:50 am:
Even the clocks at tronc are right two times a day
- Big Muddy - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:53 am:
=I’m not a Democrat so I don’t know what it would do to Democrats=
Funniest thing I’ve heard in a while. I mean, really! (then proceed’s to bash Republican Party…)
I get you don’t like where we are as a party but where we were was worse. Look how BLUE this state has become under the leadership of the Edgar’s and Cross’s.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:55 am:
My take?
If I believe a +6 is a spectacular victory for Raunerism against the alleged insurmountable headwinds of this strong Democratic year in Illinois, I have no idea what Democrats would do specifically, but with the Mid-Term elections with a Democrat in the White House, how can 2018 not, again, be huge in the Illinois political universe for Raunerites, given they “were” +6 just two years prior to 2018.
The Democrats would need to regroup, but what that regrouping could look like, with or without Madigan, and who slide in, I dunno, but that also means I believe the +6 premise.
I’m just not seeing +6, but that could be on me, and that’s possible, and likey probable too.
- DGD - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:56 am:
** I get you don’t like where we are as a party but where we were was worse. Look how BLUE this state has become under the leadership of the Edgar’s and Cross’s **
Well said. Why vote for a watered-down democrat when you can vote for the real thing ?
- titan - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:58 am:
+++ - Grand Avenue - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:22 am:
6 seats is halfway to majority - they have 47, the want to get to 60, so if they got halfway there in a Presidential year, I don’t see how they don’t finish the deal in 2018 +++
That would be tough to do with the current Map. Flipping purple to purple’ish seats is way different (i.e. harder) than flipping solid red or blue seats.
- Anon221 - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:58 am:
If the Republicans/Raunerites get the majority, then what? What is their plan to right the ship of Illinois? Tax increases are going to have to be part of that, and at least some Republicans are going to have to vote for these increases. The Raunerites will be a minority within the GOP, so they can safely sit out on those tough votes and not become targets of either the Democrats or Rauner and Co.. Dems and Repubs are going to have to work together and GoAround, or you might as well change the name of the Republican Party in Illinois to Raunercans.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 9:58 am:
===… leadership of the Edgar’s and Cross’s.===
Edgar had a Republican Senate… did ya forget that, or…
Did ya also forget Daniels won the gavel, but squandered it away ignoring the micro districts evolving.
Your rewriting history isn’t compelling.
Honest.
- illinois manufacturer - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 10:05 am:
If Rauner does that well he will run for President
- titan - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 10:14 am:
Opps - that should have been “(i.e. easier)” at 9:58
- Last Bull Moose - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 10:21 am:
The Rauner team ran on a strong anti-tax message. Madigan will raise your taxes! Madigan and taxes are bad.
With a gain of 1 seat the mirage of the supermajority vanishes. How does Rauner push through a tax increase? Will he even try?
- Anon221 - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 10:38 am:
From SJ-R July 8, 2015: “Speaker Madigan needs to make a decision: support reforms or support a tax hike,” Rauner said. “It’s one or the other.”
“Speaker Madigan controls the process,” Rauner said. “He controls a significant number of members of the General Assembly. What we’ve said to the Speaker is, ‘If you don’t want to discuss reforms in good faith, go ahead and get the revenue so we have a balance budget. Go ahead.’ ”
Rauner noted that Democrats hold enough seats in the House and Senate that they can approve a tax hike without Republican support.
http://www.sj-r.com/article/20150708/NEWS/150709600
If Rauner gets enough seats in the House, then what will his statements be on a tax hike?
- Ahoy! - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 10:40 am:
I’m not sure it will matter either way what happens, both parties operate in an echo chamber and will try to justify whatever happens. The Demococrats should be terrified if they loose 6 seats this year but will they just circle the wagons and hold firm in their faith of the map? Especially since there is no other leadership within the party.
If the Republican’s don’t pick up a seat or loose 1 or 2 they will most likely blame the map and acknowledge that this is a multi year plan.
If politics in Illinois has taught me anything it’s that just because something should move the needle or something should happen, doesn’t mean it actually happens.
- thechampaignlife - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 11:04 am:
All this talk about what +6 means. I am more interested in what something more likely, say +1 means for the next 2 years of budgeting.
- peets - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 11:36 am:
It’s not unprecedented for GOP to make legislative gains in presidential years. They did it in 2004. A different map, but still a democrat map.
- anon - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 11:52 am:
+1 doesn’t change much as far as the budget. Madigan didn’t have a working veto-proof majority before the election anyway.
But +1 was foreordained by Franks’ retirement. So +1 would indicate that the Blame Madigan campaign was an expensive flop.
- too obvious - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 2:15 pm:
Actually if GOP picks up any local seats at all, will all be thanks to Trump. No one is paying attention to Rauner’s small ball.
- Dr X - Tuesday, Nov 8, 16 @ 5:08 pm:
So lets say Rauner gets 3-6 seats. Legislation still has to pass to to get to Rauner. It’s already be proven that most vetoes can’t be overridden with the “supermajority”. So nothin’ meaningful gets sent to him. Sorry, but I’m too jaded to see a way out for IL besides a 2018 Rauner defeat.