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A look at the flipped districts
Wednesday, Nov 23, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller * Some of these districts were already “bad” for the Democrats, but their candidates managed to win in the past. Since then, of course, Rauner and his bigtime money and his go-for-the-juggular people arrived on the scene. Donald Trump also certainly helped the Republicans in Downstate districts, doing considerably better in some of these districts than Romney did four years ago (particularly Smiddy, Skoog, Cloonen)…
As I’ve said before, the object of the Republicans this year was to use their millions spent on the “Because… Madigan!” message to prevent legislative losses in the suburbs due to Trump, and keep Trump voters in the fold for Downstate legislative races. In the past, many of those same Downstaters who voted Republican for president would then vote Democratic at the legislative level. Not so much this time around.
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- Deft Wing - Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 2:07 pm:
The strategy worked. It will be further employed going forward too. Many House Dems will be attached to Mike Madigan, to their detriment as Madigan is the least popular politician in Illinois.
Rauner’s attacks on Madigan have really just begun.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 2:17 pm:
lol, they worked so well that Raunerites were so positive it worked they issued a press release that ONE seat taken in the House was a victory.
Hysterical.
Raunerites were as surprised as anyone.
To the Post,
Thanks to Mr. Kennedy, great stuff.
The breakdown of the overprrforming of Trump compared to Romney and the fractionalization seen in places like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania also happened here, but the Chicago, Cook, and Collar pluralities offset where Clinton and Duckworth will well above 13 points clear of Trump and Kirk, but those areas “stayed home” with Trump for Munger and the General Assembly, to the surprise even of Raunerites.
What might be occurring more and more is “Fire Madigan” evolved into “Stop Chicago” and regional animosity carrying the day that was led by Trump, carried by Munger, and swept I-80 corridor victories.
The surprise of the +4 is where they occurred, and married with Trump’s performance regionally, and that Collar Counties saving Democrats within the Trump-Clinton dynamic.
Kay and McAuliffe were outliers as the local won the day.
- Big Muddy - Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 2:18 pm:
If you are a democrat south of I 80 and west of 355 you best pay attention.
- Rogue Roni - Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 2:24 pm:
I can’t take these stories too seriously. A month ago everyone was saying the Republican Party was in serious trouble. The fact of the matter is Chicago is going to remain blue and downstate will remain red. The question is will people in two years will Chicago come out to vote or not? As usual, when voter turnout is low republicans win.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 2:27 pm:
=== is “Fire Madigan” evolved into “Stop Chicago”===
The opposite happened.
- Anon - Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 2:31 pm:
I agree 100% with Oswego Willy. This was Trump’s victory and not Rauner’s.
- Southern Guy - Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 2:31 pm:
There was nothing that Forby or Bradley could have done any different with Trump on the ballot and this being a Republican wave(especially in the southern part of the state). Rauner’s money clearly didn’t help, but being a Democrat south of Springfield is a tough road to get elected/reelected.
- The Captain - Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 2:38 pm:
There actually was a fair amount of ticket splitting. Look at Forby’s senate district, it went overwhelmingly for Trump and Forby lost it by about 10 or 11 yet in the two House districts that make up Forby’s Senate district Bradly lost by only about 6 and Phelps won by about 17. There were definitely a good amount of Trump - Bradley/Phelps - Fowler voters there.
Also look at Madison County. It will help to have the district by district numbers in a few weeks but you had Trump win the county 54-39 yet you also had the Dems defend Beiser and pickup Kay’s district while Bost and Baricevic tied in that congressional race in Madison 45-45 and the Democratic county board chairman lost the county. Hard to know for sure until we get more granular data but it looks likely there was a good amount of ticket splitting there, especially in the western part of the county where Beiser and Kay’s districts are.
Trump voters are hard to define, their behavior was kind of all over the place.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 2:42 pm:
===The opposite happened.===
Point taken.
My point is the regional victories, given the I-80 corridor victories and the Democratic holds is the continued fractionalizing of “Chicago” Blue and “Downstate” Red, at Trump found helpful in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Apologies.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 2:45 pm:
===Bradly lost by only about 6 and Phelps won by about 17===
Um, yeah. The difference? The Republicans spent a fortune against Bradley and a relative pittance against Phelps.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 2:48 pm:
…So thanks for helping prove my point.
- Amalia - Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 2:51 pm:
“Trump’s victory and not Rauner’s” except that in the case of McAuliffe, Clinton did well in the district. what worked there for Republicans? will the Dems try to run Marwig again, or for some other office? go after McAuliffe again?
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 2:51 pm:
The only thing that saved Phelps was a bad R candidate. He was basically given a 2 year reprieve.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 2:56 pm:
Downstate is getting more Republican and the suburbs are getting more Democratic. I suspect that will continue.
You can’t blame the map for either. The times they just-r-a-changing.
One of these days, Downstate voters — although not monolithic — will figure out they’re by far the biggest regional bloc in a state driven by regional interests.
- The Captain - Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 2:57 pm:
Williamson County: Trump won 68-27, Fowler beat Forby 59-41 and Severin only beat Bradley 52-48. So there’s likely a significant number of Trump-Bradley-Fowler voters (R-D-R).
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 3:00 pm:
==except that in the case of McAuliffe, Clinton did well in the district. what worked there for Republicans?==
And both sides were spending and campaigning in that district as heavy as any in the State. To say this wasn’t a Rauner win ignores a lot of things the Dems should instead be taking to heart and trying to learn from.
- J. Nolan - Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 3:09 pm:
The idea that Bradley couldn’t have done anything different is incorrect. He only lost by less than 3,000 votes.
-He got outworked. According to Severins fb, their team knocked 97,000 doors.
-He ran the most viciously negative and frankly disgusting campaign in the state that went so far as to have an ad where a guy was standing in front of Severins business saying he lures children in and isn’t safe for kids. It backfired.
-Even when down, they never demanded a debate.
-He ran not one ad telling people what he accomplished in 13 years. That’s what ppl want to know!
-Severin had 28 years worth of school board votes to comb through and they decided to run a campaign against the sex offender Severin hired.
I could go on…
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 3:11 pm:
Captain, Bradley is from Williamson and Marion Mayor endorsed him. Severin did better than Fowler in Franklin where he is from.
- cdog - Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 3:13 pm:
The Flipper or The Flipped…
Anyone downstate that wants to be the Flipper, and not be the Flipped needs to truly understand the sentiment of the non-suburban/urban fly-over folks.
We identify with the ball cap wearing #MAGA movement. We support Brexit. We don’t care if you speak perfectly if you will stand up to bullies that have bad motives. We don’t like the feeling of being taken advantage of by an out of control government that doesn’t have the citizens best interest as a primary principle. … you get it.
Dems need to be careful because lower property taxes, work comp causation, state payroll controls, etc., are sounding a lot better than the “protect middle class” mantra which is really code for more of the same broken practices.
- hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, Nov 23, 16 @ 3:38 pm:
@wordslinger - What are the cohesive regional interests of Downstate?
Southern Illinois and Central Illinois and Metro East and the Quad Cities have their own distinct prerogatives and political cultures.
And even within those subgroups you have a place like Champaign trending more Dem but a place like Decatur getting more Republican.