Before Gov. Bruce Rauner’s budget address last week, Senate Republican Leader Christine Radogno made a rare visit to the Senate Democratic caucus meeting.
Radogno assured the Democrats that she and her GOP caucus were working in good faith to achieve a bipartisan “grand bargain” in the chamber. Senate Democrats have been grumbling for weeks that the Republicans were playing Lucy with Charlie Brown’s football. Every time they think they’re getting close, they’re told the Republicans aren’t ready to vote. It was a much-needed speech.
And then Gov. Rauner gave his budget address.
The governor’s office had once again not followed protocol by providing its budget details to legislative staff the evening before, so legislators had no way of knowing during his speech that his budget included a projected $32.7 billion in revenues and $37.3 billion in spending. They also had no way of knowing that some of those projected revenues and perhaps hundreds of millions or even billions in projected savings weren’t actually real, adding to the plan’s self-admitted $4.6 billion hole.
But, whatever. It’s not like nobody expected this to happen. Rauner did the same thing last year when he proposed closing a $3.5 billion hole with magical words about “cooperation,” and two years ago when he promised illusory savings from pension reforms and cutting unspecified waste. It’s frustrating and it may not even be constitutional, but it is what it is.
Last week’s speech wasn’t really about the upcoming budget, however. Everybody was there to hear what he had to say about the Senate. As you already know, the two Senate leaders began talking after Gov. Rauner announced in December that he would no longer host leaders meetings because he said the Democrats were refusing to negotiate in good faith.
Rauner has been saying for a while now that he didn’t want to weigh in on the Senate’s plan for fear of messing up their progress. But then Senate President John Cullerton said it might be helpful if Rauner publicly supported the plan.
Fittingly, as soon as Rauner began discussing his preferred parameters, his teleprompter broke. Attorney General Lisa Madigan, whom the governor has been attacking for attempting to help her father create a crisis with a government shutdown, gamely offered the governor her paper copy. The print was too small, however, and he couldn’t read it. Rauner then quoted Speaker Madigan’s joke that the Russians must’ve caused the malfunction. For a couple of minutes, the obvious tension and hostility in the House chamber eased. Democrats had been derisively laughing at the governor, but were now laughing with him. That didn’t last.
Once the teleprompter issue was finally fixed, the governor laid out his demands. If the Senate was planning to pass a permanent tax hike, then, to win his support, it must also pass a permanent property tax freeze. The House had already passed such a freeze, mainly because it’s hugely popular and members figured the Senate wouldn’t ever touch it because of the damage it would do to schools and local governments. Rauner risked knocking the Senate’s progress off its tracks with that one. Some Democrats later alleged it was a deliberate poison pill. More evidence, they said, of Lucy yanking that football away from Charlie Brown.
Rauner did leave the door open just a tiny bit by saying that when the tax increase starts producing revenue surpluses, he wanted the tax hikes “stepped down” to dedicate the money to taxpayers.
So, could he be open to a temporary tax hike in exchange for a temporary property tax freeze? Republicans are saying that a couple of Senate Democrats have talked about possibly doing a “5 and 5″ plan, which would both raise taxes and cap property taxes for five years.
Rauner also demanded that the Senate abandon its plan to tax sales of food and medicine. He privately wants that replaced with a tax on sugary drinks, but the Senate leaders say they cannot round up enough votes to pass it.
The Democrats went back to derisively laughing at Rauner when he claimed “Term limits get job creators excited.” And while his demand that the Senate’s workers’ compensation reform match the Massachusetts model got little attention, Massachusetts is a “causation” state, which the Democrats have always said they will never agree to. That could be a big problem.
It’s too early to tell whether Rauner did irrevocable harm last week. The fact that the Republican leaders in the House and Senate didn’t rush to openly embrace his specific demands is a sign that people still want progress, however. Stay tuned.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Feb 21, 17 @ 9:06 am:
I don’t think Rauner’s specific comments necessarily did much harm to the Senate deal. Rather, I think it was his pretty vague position on it, coupled with Rodogno’s new deadline.
- Dee Lay - Tuesday, Feb 21, 17 @ 9:16 am:
For those keeping score at home, Rauner has yet to introduce a balanced budget.
But hey, $50 million says otherwise.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 21, 17 @ 9:27 am:
To the Post,
===Rauner did leave the door open just a tiny bit by saying that when the tax increase starts producing revenue surpluses, he wanted the tax hikes “stepped down” to dedicate the money to taxpayers.===
I always felt, way back to Gov-Elect Rauner days…
First year - Keep the tax rate at Quinn level.
Second year - reduce the income tax to “half”, where the rate was “currently” to where it was before “67%” income tax raise.
Third year, “petition year” - reduce the tax, rolling it back to pre-raise in the income tax.
Rauner would’ve had significant leverage these 3 years of “what and where” to cut, also allowing the gradual decline be a win. Never is a tax increase AFTER a reduction a “win”. This was ridiculously poor politics.
Also, that tax plan, “reducing taxes” allows cooperation for budgets and a long term budget plan (Helloooo Leslie Munger, LOL!) that plan for the cuts and/or allow for Democrats to make a play to “stop” the planned tax cuts.
The utter incompetency by the Rauner Crew to governing here is the biggest blot of proof where “Bruce Rauner failed”
“Why are you talking about this?”
Welp, what I’m describing here is actual “governmental” leverage that could’ve produced “Turnaround Agenda” wins.
It wouldn’t had put Leader Radogno in this mess. Leader Radogno would’ve been helping cobble 30 for a 3rd year budget with that final tax cut, allowing room for Rauner.
Rauner made two serious mistakes, in my opinion, and I’ve been consistent with these as these errors continue to make Rauner’s position untenable;
The Decatur PowerPoint, forcing all of Labor to see early Rauner’s distaste for organized Labor.
The demanding of the income tax to completely drop, never allowing a gradual and continual “win” with leverage every year with the drop.
All Rauner has now…
… is the pulling away the football, because of the disservice of the Rauner Crew towards Bruce Rauner.
The Rauner Crew? They think this is “great”. I know that.
How do I know? Ads that take credit for nothing Rauner is pursuing. Ads that run counter to the funding and messaging IPI and Proft project, and that projection is the true Rauner want.
So… pull that football.
Rauner was never skilled at governing. We now reap the two mistakes Rauner sowed.
- Roman - Tuesday, Feb 21, 17 @ 9:40 am:
If anyone is playing Lucy, it’s Rauner.
His schizophrenic conduct on the “Grand Bargain” is messing with both Senate caucuses. He makes high-profile general statements in support of the deal, but says he doesn’t want to get into specifics — only to later offer specific criticism and conditions. And all the while, his surrogates work to kill the entire package.
He wants to take credit for the deal if it succeeds, so he has something to run on in 2018. But if it fails legislatively or if the deal becomes a political liability by re-election time, he wants to distance himself from it.
A real leader would pick a lane.
- don the legend - Tuesday, Feb 21, 17 @ 9:47 am:
Most citizens still just see this huge failure at governing in the abstract. Their tax rate is only 3.75% and the highways are open, license plate stickers and drivers licenses are renewed, no state offices are shut down, no layoffs or missed paydays. That will soon all end but for now most (not all) folks haven’t felt any consequence to this failed governing.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Feb 21, 17 @ 9:49 am:
==He wants to take credit for the deal if it succeeds, so he has something to run on in 2018. But if it fails legislatively or if the deal becomes a political liability by re-election time, he wants to distance himself from it.==
And really, the second play only works if it dies in the House and you can blame Madigan. Even that might not be enough to excuse an entire term without a budget, but it helps.
- Texas Red - Tuesday, Feb 21, 17 @ 10:09 am:
Rauner has a certain set of beliefs in terms of how to fix Illinois economy- the much criticized turn around agenda. He strongly believes that term limits, workers comp reform, property tax freeze pension reform, and educational reforms will put the state on a path to prosperity. Now you do not have to share his belief – but please do not tell me this is a new thing or that his moves are somehow a surprise. This has been his stance more of less for two years; he said this is what he wants passed and surprise, he is actually trying to achieve that goal. So not sure that the Lucy role is applicable.
- Sideline Watcher - Tuesday, Feb 21, 17 @ 10:16 am:
This:
“His schizophrenic conduct on the “Grand Bargain” is messing with both Senate caucuses. He makes high-profile general statements in support of the deal, but says he doesn’t want to get into specifics — only to later offer specific criticism and conditions. And all the while, his surrogates work to kill the entire package.”
Add to that the forces on the left that also don’t want Rauner to get a win that are working overtime to kill it.
It will be an amazing feat if this thing gets out of the Senate. Truly amazing.
- RNUG - Tuesday, Feb 21, 17 @ 10:26 am:
== he said this is what he wants passed ==
Too bad he wasn’t that clear during the campaign.
- Texas Red - Tuesday, Feb 21, 17 @ 10:34 am:
===Too bad he wasn’t that clear during the campaign.
Well now Rauner’s agenda is abundantly clear; so go ‘em in 2018.
- Telly - Tuesday, Feb 21, 17 @ 10:36 am:
Willy, excellent analysis of how Rauner is paying the price for his early strategic missteps.
I would add to the mix his failure to recognize and exploit the traditional divisions in organized labor between the trades and public employee unions. He might have found some common ground with Madigan on this. Instead, he tried to split the Dems with Ken Dunkin. ‘Nuff said.
- Earnest - Tuesday, Feb 21, 17 @ 11:17 am:
>Senate Republican Leader Christine Radogno made a rare visit to the Senate Democratic caucus meeting
Awesome leadership and a beautiful thing to see.
If we can get something like this I’m going to make another wish: Madigan and Rauner issue a joint statement that they hate many parts of the Senate plan but will will do everything in their power to see it passed and signed into law for the good of the state. Doesn’t hurt to make a wish.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Feb 21, 17 @ 11:20 am:
== He strongly believes that term limits, workers comp reform, property tax freeze pension reform, and educational reforms will put the state on a path to prosperity.==
Good for him. The problem is, there’s a lot of variations on each of those elements, and he doesn’t have a majority in the legislature. So, compromise is necessary, but he doesn’t really communicate what sort of compromise he’ll accept, he just steps in at the last minute and blows up whatever he doesn’t like. It’s pretty rational to worry he’ll do it again.
- Walker - Tuesday, Feb 21, 17 @ 11:49 am:
Texas Red: You make a good general point, but …
As Rauner supporters keep reminding us, for the past 6 months at least, Rauner has said he will give up “some” “more than half” “all but two” or “three” specified elements of his Turnaround Agenda, to reach a grand bargain on a budget with reforms. His overall philosophy might not have changed, but he is continually shifting the goalposts. It is not evident he wants any agreement at this time.
- Earnest - Tuesday, Feb 21, 17 @ 11:58 am:
Another Charlie Brown image comes to mind here as well…Charlie Brown by the mailbox, waiting for his Valentine’s cards to arrive, getting none.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Feb 21, 17 @ 1:06 pm:
–He strongly believes that term limits, workers comp reform, property tax freeze pension reform, and educational reforms will put the state on a path to prosperity.–
Does he? Or is that just the snake oil, to make the personal, partisan agenda go down?
If he believes that he’s pushing an “economic agenda,” he should sell it with….. economics. Growth and fiscal projections that can be put to the test.
GOMB could do those in a New York minute.
If Rauner truly believes he’s peddling economic prosperity, he should shop it down in Hyde Park and get some of the Chicago School boys give it their seal-of-approval. They’re the gold standard among conservative economists.
Personally, I believe it’s all snake oil, and you have to be outside your mind to believe that the cat willfully causing all this economic and fiscal damage believes it’s the road to prosperity. Cleaning up the wreckage will take years, and a lot of those who succumbed to the Social Darwinism ain’t coming back.
It’s squeeze the beast, for its own sake.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Feb 21, 17 @ 1:09 pm:
“We now reap the two mistakes Rauner sowed. ”
OW, only 2 mistakes? Does the non-union contract not count as a mistake?
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 21, 17 @ 1:14 pm:
I asked of this Governor 3 things when he took the Oath…
FY2015 Fix - which led to the Good Friday Massacre
FY2016 Budget - never happened
Labor Peace - welp, where is that right now?
I see the 2 biggest mistakes as just that.
The “Af-Scammy” labor agreement is a plan, not a mistake. Sadly.