53 Comments - Arsenal - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 1:40 pm: How does Andersson’s theory work given that Rauner just came right out and said he’ll veto, and it appears he’ll do so as soon as it reaches his desk? - Try-4-Truth - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 1:43 pm: Does good government ever equal good politics? Was it always a lie we told ourselves? I suspect so. - AC - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 1:43 pm: If this analysis is correct, perhaps it wasn’t a revolt that led to 15 house Republican votes for the tax increase. - Macbeth - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 1:43 pm: — How does Andersson’s theory work given that Rauner just came right out and said he’ll veto, and it appears he’ll do so as soon as it reaches his desk? — Well, if the override fails, then Rauner is, indeed, Governor Junk. And that’d be a hard thing to run on. (Especially since the URL domains are already bought and paid for — and, I’d wager, just waiting to be put into action.) - Anonymous - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 1:44 pm: If the bill passes the Senate it’s hard to see an override failing. Everyone that voted for it the first time already has “he/she voted to raise taxes” out there as a campaign issue that could be used against them. - ILPundit - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 1:44 pm: Governor asks for another term on the basis that he’s too ineffective to keep his own party in line to stop a tax increase? Sounds like a winner - Captain Ed Smith - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 1:44 pm: Governor Junk and the Superstars do not know how to take a victory lap. Actually, multiple victory laps. - Honeybear - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 1:45 pm: He won’t be overridden. Those no DEM votes tell me so. They know it’s not going to be overridden and that they are stuck till the election. Neither Gods nor Jotun survive Ragnarok. - Anonymous - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 1:45 pm: Come on folks, he has proven time after time, he simply does not know when to take a win. This time will be no different. He will moan, complain, and blame everyone. At the end of the day he is the causal factor in all this trouble. - Arsenal - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 1:47 pm: ==Well, if the override fails, then Rauner is, indeed, Governor Junk. And that’d be a hard thing to run on.== Right, but I mean the “keep working with Rauner” thing. Andersson says Dems will do so because they need his signature on the budget. But once he vetoes it, that ship has sailed, so why would they give him anything else he wants? I rather imagine that if they do successfully override the veto, they’ll spend the next 18 months passing Feel Good bills for Rauner to veto. - Gruntled University Employee - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 1:50 pm: Saying he’ll veto this as soon as it hits his desk tells me that he wants to see an override before we go to junk status. Madigan, on the other hand, may be more than willing to wait. - Texas Red - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 1:53 pm: Rauner will walk away from this with clean hands and the rest of us poor souls will have a huge tax increase on ours. MJM will righty be held cupapble. His inability to deliver anything but a massive tax hike , along with his failure to bargain a property tax cap or WC compromise will be election fodder. No one wins hear but the public unions and that may not bode well at the ballot box. - Union thug - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 1:54 pm: Sad to say i would like to see madigan at least wait on an over ride. - Honeybear - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 1:55 pm: The great benefit of veto no override is the “destruction of the administrative state”. It’s the Bannon fantasy. Ripe for privatization. I believe it to be the usurpation of democratic systems For corporate gain and rule - cdog - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 1:55 pm: Does any one know what is going on with the property tax freeze? - Ed Higher - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 1:56 pm: Heaven forbid BR should lose leverage as the state tumbles from disaster down to catastrophe. - Try-4-Truth - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 1:57 pm: =====- Texas Red - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 1:53 pm: Rauner will walk away from this with clean hands and the rest of us poor souls will have a huge tax increase on ours. MJM will righty be held cupapble. His inability to deliver anything but a massive tax hike , along with his failure to bargain a property tax cap or WC compromise will be election fodder. No one wins hear but the public unions and that may not bode well at the ballot box.====== Your joking, right? (PS, I know it’s you’re. I’m seeing if Mr. Miller is paying attention). - Rod - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 1:59 pm: I think Rich your political calculation relating to an override of a veto aaaumes, the Governor does not really believe in his turn around agenda. Everything I have seen from him is that he is a believer that lower taxation, less regulation, and privatization of state functions will result in an increase in business activity with a resulting increase in the tax base. Governor Rauner wants to win because he believes things will be better for every one once he does, all I see is what happened in Kanas. It’s not because he wants to be reelected, the Governor really and deeply believes in this stuff. - RNUG - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:01 pm: If it truly is a GOP revolt, all they need are 10 GOP Representatives and 5 GOP Senators to sign on to a recall with an equivalent number of D’s. I suspect the citizens signatures wouldn’t be that hard to get. But do we really want the LG in charge? - lake county democrat - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:02 pm: Won’t the ensuing tangible effects of a lack of a budget overwhelm the political benefit to Rauner? If the GOP House had held firm and no budget had passed, maybe he could have shifted some of the ownership to Madigan. But vetoing a bipartisan spending bill? Presuming at least that the Dems have the competence to be already getting their counter-Rauner and get that message out, I don’t see the state turning on Madigan for not seeking an override. The open question to me is how Machiavelian Madigan is - would he really not seek an override? - Ole' Nelson - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:03 pm: -”Governor Rauner wants to win because he believes things will be better for every one” This is where you lost me on your argument. Do you truly believe that the governor is interested in everyone? If by everyone, you mean everyone that’s in his wine club, then maybe. - say what - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:04 pm: He can’t have it both ways Illinois is smarter than that, no one is considering the outrage the ordinary people will feel against him. Schools close, interest goes up, hospitals fold, business leave, it will pale compared to the tax rate and longterm effect. He vetos,he loses and we all have to pay for it. Even the most vulnerable in this state have a vote, I have no doubt the next election will have a turnout unseen in decades he will lose but by then so will all of us who remain. - Ole' Nelson - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:09 pm: I agree that he is a “true believer”, but to make the argument that he is even slightly concerned with those outside his income bracket seems ridiculous given the way he hss used the poor as pawns for the entirety of his term. - Curl of the Burl - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:09 pm: Nelson - to solidify Rod’s point he is echoing what Rich has stated many times over the last 3+ years. Bruce Rauner firmly believes in what he is doing. Right or wrong he believes it and is obviously acting out what he envisions. That is his impetus and driving force. Go back and check out some of Rich’s writings/musings on the topic. - NorthsideNoMore - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:10 pm: U thug…. if the override voteis delayed to long all the trades working on any state projects will get completely shut down for the season. That hurts a Lot of people and families and the public too. All this so two guys can continue to measure it up on the playground formerly known as the Great State of Illinois. Any wonder why we are basement dwellers in almost every category (or on our way there)that’s is meaningful to citizens. - Cassandra - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:12 pm: I agree that Rauner believes in his agenda and not because he is inherently evil as so many here appear to believe. Scores of wealthy and successful individuals across our great land believe the same thing. Are they all evil. Of course not. Among other things, they were probably lucky though, even if few would acknowledge that. Still, Rauner, if he runs for another term, needs money to run the state. He also needs to figure out what to do with Republicans who voted for the increase. Forgive and forget? I dunno. In the meantime, he and his wealthy fellow citizens can be happy knowing that far too little of what is reaped from this tax increase will be coming from them. - Jim O - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:14 pm: Rod @ 1:59 you are spot on. Rauner (and GOP local and national) is the ideology of Milton’s free market and capitalism with its the associated ‘trickle down’ mythology. As Rich identified many months ago, all for the GOP magic beans result in nothing short term and little of nothing (1.4%) for long term. - DeseDemDose - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:14 pm: For the good of Illinois there was no other choice but to pass a budget with tax revenue.There are Democrats and Republicans that support revenue reality.Rauner will Veto.No surprises so far. Only time will tell how many will have to suffer before an override and taxes go back to where they were before Governor Junk and his dark money bought Illinois. - Curl of the Burl - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:16 pm: Cassandra - good observation on Rauner “forgiving and forgetting”. Finding a primary challenger to face Sam McCann is one thing. Finding a primary challenger for 10+ HGOP members who voted for the tax increase and however many SGOP members may vote for the tax increase would be much different - especially with Rauner running for reelection next year and needing a ton to stave off whoever wins the Dem primary. - Curl of the Burl - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:18 pm: DDD - what dark money are you referencing? Rauner’s spending in 2014 and 2016 was pretty out in the open. - Demoralized - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:19 pm: ==No one wins hear but the public unions== I don’t know. I’m pretty sure the universities, social service providers and other’s providing services to and for the state come out winners. - Western IL - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:20 pm: Ole, steady on, now. We’re a lower income working family. Rauner is the only one standing up for our pocketbook. Why should WE do with less? We’ve earned our little bit and we want to hold onto it. This is why we supported and continue to support Rauner. Tax increases, without serious reform, hurt us directly. Seems to me he understands that simple concept. H - Anon221 - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:21 pm: I’m going to take Rauner at his word from yesterday. He’s going to veto. He will own that choice. That will be all his, not the House Republicans, not the Senate Republicans, only Rauner. If the veto is allowed to fester, then it is on both the House and the Senate. Votes need to be taken soon after the veto to maintain Rauner’s ownership. Otherwise he will really win momentum to start rolling over those GA members of both parties as 2018 approaches. If Rauner flips his veto and signs, then maybe ( I’d love to put that word in caps but will refrain) he can run as a conciliator. I don’t think he cares much about being labeled Governor Junk if he can win on the national level as a winner in a US Supreme Court case or two. - Fax Machine - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:23 pm: The interesting thing is that while Rauner /Proft style extreme free marketism is still the religion of the elites of the Republican Party, actual Republican voters have moved beyond it to Trumpian Populist nationalism. - RNUG - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:24 pm: Rauner believes what he believes with the furveor of a religious zealot. That’s really all you need to know to predict his actions … - Fax Machine - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:25 pm: Trump voters don’t strike me as the kind of people who believe their kids shouldn’t be able to go to school so Ken Griffin can save an extra 20 Million on his taxes. - Chicagonk - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:25 pm: Is the expectation that Rauner will veto as soon as it hits his desk? - Thoughts Matter - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:31 pm: I really wish the Gov would listen to the GOP reps quoted in the post done later than this one. He may relish a veto for campaign material… but he won’t be helping our state by vetoing. He needs to lead, not play games. Why take the chance that the veto won’t be overridden in time to hold off the credit downgrade? - Arsenal - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:33 pm: ==Won’t the ensuing tangible effects of a lack of a budget overwhelm the political benefit to Rauner?== Rich’s point assumes Veto + Override; basically, Rauner is counting on the legislature to be responsible in a way he isn’t willing to be (whooo wants odds?). If Rauner vetoes and there’s no override, and we hit junk status and road workers are laid off and schools don’t open and yadda yadda yadda, Rauner is in a lot of trouble. But if he vetoes and there is an override, he can rail against taxes while his crisis subsides. …the problem I’m seeing with that second idea is that he’s always been correct that the problems predated him and one year’s budget won’t really revive much of the IL economy. So in other words, things will still suck, and that’s usually a problem for incumbents. - Anon221 - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:34 pm: Chicagonk- Go to yesterday’s blog and read Rauner’s statement on what he plans to do to “Mike Madigan’s tax hike”. He was pretty clear about what he action he will take if the Senate approves as well. - Langhorne - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:37 pm: As we know, rauner is all message, all the time. Facts be damned. Damage and destruction mean nothing. They dont exist — just look at the alternative facts in his mailers and tv ads. Rauner likes the choices coming to him. Veto the tax increase and he can bash the GA. Override, he can spend the money, and bash the GA. Fail to override, he has protected taxpayers, and can bash the GA. As a plus, starve the beast continues at an accelerated pace. Crisis creates leverage. Keep moving the goal posts. Drive everyone crazy, so they cave in. Normally, anyone who voted yes, will assuredly do so again. But this is raunigan world. Rauner and madigan may both jockey w the roll calls. God help us. - Arsenal - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:37 pm: ==Why should WE do with less? == Why should the IDOT workers who are about to get laid off? Why should the college kids about to find themselves attending a school without accreditation? Why should the children whose school won’t open on time? At least this way, the misery is divided into smaller portions for everyone. Yours is the non-dystopian fiction version of screaming, “Do it to Julia!” - UICGuy - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:37 pm: So how likely is it that MM won’t call the override for a vote (or will make sure that it fails)? He has, after all, no reason to want to do anything that would help BR—unless we think he has the good of the state sincerely at heart. - ste_with_a_v_en - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:38 pm: As messed up as it sounds, an override seems like the most practical solution at this point. Minus the threat of junk status, an override seems to have some political advantages. 1. Rauner can say he fought against tax increases. 2.Override occurs, Republican reps who needs funds for their districts get them, say they did what they had to do. 3. Madigan gets to say we passed a budget, while if Republicans help vote to override, he can’t protect target Dems in 2018. Of course, it should never have come to this, but it is what it is. - Taxes are Investments - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:39 pm: “Western IL” I really don’t think Rauner is standing up for you. He’s standing up for hedge fund managers who make billions off the labor of others and want to escape any responsibility whatsoever for contributing to society in the form of taxes that build roads, schools etc. He stands for a form of theft. As for your interests, the slight increase in taxes will support investments in roads, the University in your region WIU, and k to 12 schools, prisons, and medicaid. Even if you don’t use any of those things directly, they benefit people you do business with and promote the health of your community. So, you do win. - ste_with_a_v_en - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:39 pm: Sorry, Madigan can protect his targeted members. - wordslinger - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:40 pm: Based on his track record, I’m sure Rauner will attempt to continue the destruction of squeeze the beast. But if that fails, he’ll make the best of it. Denounce the tax increase, but take credit for the relative fiscal stability it provides. In other words, he’ll act like the run-of-the-mill politician that he is. - Chicagonk - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:48 pm: @Anon - My question was more about timing and when a veto override vote would be scheduled. - Honeybear - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:56 pm: Cassandra, as respectfully as I can. I’d like to ask this. Is the function of society, community and the government which administers it for profit or the common good? I would say the common good. I see all Rauners efforts being towards corporate profit. He goes after unions because they are, in the public sector, a tremendous hinderance to privatization. They also support Democrats (who can also be profit oriented btw). He says he does things for the “tax payer” but I consider that argument perfidious when you look at who it really benefits. Take any one of his initiatives and I can most likely tie it back to the capitalistic drive towards profit. What I feel is at play here is a fight for the very definition of what government is for. And yes I do feel the doing everything for profit is evil. Christian scripture supports my position. Thus the many times “see you in church” is leveled at Rauner supporters. I believe that Rauner is intentionally causing suffering. I do not feel that financial suffering from those who can actually pay fairly assessed tax should out way the needs of those who actually are suffering. Come to East St Louis in the 92 degree heat. Step inside our cooling center. Meet some of the elderly who got here early to keep cool. No I think there actually is a hierarchy of suffering. In my opinion “taxpayer” suffering and the suffering of the privileged is lower on the scale. I do not know your situation and none of my talks were meant in a personal way. But I think we have to have this discussion. - Anonymous - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 2:56 pm: Texas Red - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 1:53 pm It’s 1.2% Huuuge…. but not as huuuge as the coming federal cut. When net pay goes up, your low information victims will see their net pay increase. Meanwhile, your blank slate candidate has writing all over him. So click your red slippers together and say “there’s no place like Kansas… except Wisconsin and Indiana… and about nine other states. Like Texas! Most don’t have global cities like Chicago messing up their “redness”. Have you been to Chicago lately? There is new construction everywhere. There are upsides to having a global city if you look for them, but trying to turn it into a low income tax have is nuts. - Anon221 - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 3:02 pm: Chicagonk- I’d say he’ll veto as soon as it hits his desk. My hope would be immediate override. There just too much pressure on three fronts not to do otherwise: K-12 staying open through the fall semester; the recent Medicaid payments court order; and the bond houses downgrading the State to junk. - Tax this - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 4:05 pm: 15 Republicans are on record voting for the tax increase. Unfortunately Rauner will make their tuff but necessary vote be in vain. A veto is irrisponsibe at this stage. Pay now or pay double later. - Chicago 20 - Monday, Jul 3, 17 @ 7:54 pm: Stick a fork in Rauner, he’s done. The Republicans who broke Rauner’s ranks are on their own now. The more that defy Rauner the more costly it will be for Rauner politically and financially. I’ll bet it won’t be long until we here stories of Rauner’s strong arm tactics on his fellow Republicans. Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.