46 Comments - Roman - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 9:46 am: Waiting to see if the purge moves to the campaign side. All the Kirk and JBT folks are getting launched…what’s Mike Z thinking right now? - Real - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 9:46 am: The media could not be further from the truth. Rauner is in the business of bankrupting companies and now states. New revenue was a loss for Rauner. - Fax Machine - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 9:47 am: During the 2014, when he promised to bring in Superstars from outside Government, he meant people who accomplished things in the business world. Instead the outsiders we get are pencilnecks that wouldn’t last a day in the for-profit sector, whose only experience in life is regurgitating Milton Friedman and Ayn Rand so some billionaire can write them a check because he thinks its 1% of the tax savings he’d get if their policies ever did get adopted. - Moe Berg - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 9:48 am: We’ve already seen an IPI-style tax cutting experiement “outside the simulator” in Kansas. It was a total disaster. And, IL echoed it last week when Republicans joined with Democrats to reject Rauner’s economic nihilism, same as in KS with Brownback. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 9:57 am: I find your lack of faith… disturbing. - The Captain - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 9:58 am: At some point in the next 12 months the center of gravity in Rauner-world is going to move from the government staff to the campaign staff. It’s always an odd dynamic no matter the party of the incumbent, this new governor’s office team is likely to have a short window of influence no matter what and I suspect that window will be too short to really get a sense of how effective they end up. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 9:59 am: ===I find your lack of faith=== Faith is for God and religion. - Huhwut - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 10:04 am: But the tax hike is a loss. A win would be no tax hike or a temporary hike with reforms like what Rauner advocated. As far as the campaign side, why would there be turnover there? This is purely a governmental side issue. The 2nd floor couldn’t line up the votes this time. Simple as that. - Pot calling kettle - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 10:04 am: ==Faith is for God and religion. == And Darth Vader…LOL - JPC - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 10:09 am: ==Instead the outsiders we get are pencilnecks that wouldn’t last a day in the for-profit sector, whose only experience in life is regurgitating Milton Friedman and Ayn Rand so some billionaire can write them a check because he thinks its 1% of the tax savings he’d get if their policies ever did get adopted.== Brutal. On the plus side, the IPI types have an easily identifiable and rigidly ideological perspective on government–they don’t want any. The budget crisis has shown, if anything, that people want a not-insignificant amount of it. Polls even show they want a lot of it. This thread with links, etc. is worth studying: https://twitter.com/BrianMackey/status/883028188070371329 On the down side, their social media operation plays well in an asymmetrically polarized media environment: http://news.wgbh.org/2017/03/15/politics-government/major-new-study-shows-political-polarization-mainly-right-wing That is to say, targeted, misleading, fake news. Example: the poll-tested property tax line. - Pot calling kettle - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 10:09 am: The firings will continue until morale improves. He’s doubling down on the wrong bet. This is why his agenda has failed so far. What he should have done was allow the temp tax increase to go permanent (by not saying anything in Dec 14), then focus on negotiating a budget with a slight surplus. After a couple of wins, he could start pushing his agenda to a more receptive audience. Instead, he’s backed into a corner and getting ready to push harder on what hasn’t worked. - Curl of the Burl - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 10:09 am: Rich - pretty sure 9:57 was referencing “Star Wars”. - jim - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 10:10 am: Madigan got the tax hikes he’s wanted for the last 2-plus years along with the GOP support he insisted on. Rauner got nothing. Madigan won. Rauner lost. It’s all spin from here on out. - don the legend - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 10:20 am: Captain, …At some point in the next 12 months the center of gravity in Rauner-world is going to move from the government staff to the campaign staff… All due respect. I don’t see that Rauner’s world ever had a government staff. It’s campaign staff mode then, now and will be through his (hoped for) defeat in 2018. - Fax Machine - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 10:24 am: Plus, electionwise, I don’t see what this shakeup or dithering on SB1 (once it’s sent to him) accomplishes. He’s in a decent spot to win re-election because we have a budget (even if he vetoed it) and he can run against Madigan and his tax increase after priming the anti-Madigan pump with all the 2016 ads. Letting himself be tied to the hips with these anarchocapitalists only hurts his re-election chances. So would spending 60 days dithering on SB1 and letting schools not open - his best case scenario politically there might be to veto, let it be overridden (with 4 or 5 GOP reps) then run against Madigan’s tax hike and Chicago bailout. Rauner either must be thinking that he may only have 17 months left as Governor so he should finally be his true extreme right wing self, or be must be extremely confident that he’ll win re-election that he can expose his true self and still win in 2018. Very weird considering the election timing - Puddintaine - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 10:25 am: “Outside of government “. Considering governments track record this is bad, why? - Arsenal - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 10:27 am: There was something to the idea that Rauner was “secretly” happy with the budget. It was limited (he could only push the “fightin’ against Madigan’s taxes!” line so far before someone would point out that he LOST), but there was something to it. But indeed, his actions aren’t consistent with someone who is content with how things are going. That being said, I do agree that this is getting much more attention than a usual staff shuffle would. Part of that is the timing (including a couple of coincidental moves), but part of that is the Democratic comms shops have actually done a good job pushing the story for once. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 10:34 am: ===this is bad, why? === Stop looking for ways to be offended. I didn’t say it was bad. It’s just a fact. - Flapdoodle - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 10:35 am: PCK @ 10:09: He’s doubling down on the wrong bet. Yes! This is called “escalation of commitment” in management speak. When something goes wrong, leadership throws more resources at it or makes personnel changes, “doubling down” on policy goals without considering that it’s the goals that are the actual problems. All the more common when leadership is emotionally heavily invested in those goals. Rauner is providing a classic illustration of this process. - Smitty Irving - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 10:45 am: =Faith is for God and religion.= Rich, for many Friedman / Rand / IPI followers, their economic theory IS religion. - FormerDownstateHack - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 10:47 am: If they’re as strident in upcoming battles as they were after the budget vote, they will just alienate more GOP legislators that will lead to more frequent and much more embarrassing veto overrides than the last one. And, if he REALLY cares about fixing the mess, will only further damage that cause rather than help. He needs to be very careful on this fine political line he’s trying to walk. He might be able to whip up the hardcore base, but he has to seem reasonable to Independents - and more of them - since he’ll continue to lose moderates if he and his team come across as heartless and unable to administer government effectively. This is no red state like Kansas or even Wisconsin now. The Dems are polarized against him, and he’d be wise to keep building GOP numbers in the legislature rather than let those caucus organization burn like one could argue his new staff advocated for doing to the state during the budget fight. - SAP - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 10:47 am: Holy scorched earth Batman - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 10:55 am: Outside the dorm room debate club is more like it. The simulator analogy presumes some practical training in operations and management. - the Patriot - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 10:58 am: The Republicans rejected the Rauner “plan.” The IL GOP has about 30 days to ask Rauner not to run and draft Brady or some other reasonable person. If we learned anything last week it is that the GOP legislators deemed the price of the Rauner agenda too great. Backing Rauner at this point seems to either concede the mansion in 2018 or at best hope for 5 more years like the last 3. Not an option. - Liberty - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 11:05 am: Rauner seems to have plenty of faith. - Anon221 - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 11:06 am: It will be interesting to see what funds these IPIes will be paid from. And I’m still wondering who is influencing whom? Are these all Rauner’s calls, or is someone(s) else dictating the terms behind the scenes? There haven’t been any big campaign dollar dumps that I’ve seen lately. If the focus by hiring the IPIes is to work on those two US Supreme Court cases, they have the speed bump or crater of K-12 to work through first. I have a feeling that will really test their strength. Even if people may partake of IPI “sustenance”, they are not going to sacrifice their schools and their children at that altar. - Fax Machine - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 11:07 am: With the idea being the things he has to do to placate the right flank will hurt him in the General. - Jimmy H - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 11:18 am: Wasn’t Rauner from “outside the simulator”…and how is he doing? But really, does Rauner or these new hires actually care about the success of the State or is it more about their own objectives? Rauner and his ilk will make money regardless. It is class warfare and the objective is more money by any method, including the destruction of a State… pure unabashed greed. - Anon - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 11:38 am: “Just days ago, the view was Rauner “won” the budget fight because he was handed new revenues to run his government as well as the popular political issue of opposing a tax increase.” And that’s why Rauner didn’t seem to mind the GOP “defections” even after it became clear that the House was voting to override his veto. There are too many indications that this was the part of the plan. He didn’t need to clean house to appear opposed to the revenue bill. Yet, not only did he send his old team out in a flash, he already had replacements for key positions on standby. Something doesn’t add up. Are the dark money men of IPI pulling Rauner’s strings here? - George - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 11:38 am: “Madigan got the tax hikes he’s wanted for the last 2-plus years along with the GOP support he insisted on.” Why do people assume Madigan “wanted” a tax increase? There is a difference between “wanting” something and realizing something has to happen. I’m pretty sure Madigan would have preferred any realistic alternative to raising taxes, since tax increases are generally considered politically toxic. However, as there were no realistic alternatives (as even the Governor at times seemed to recognize), taxes had to be increased. But that doesn’t mean Madigan “wanted” taxes increased. Saying Madigan “wanted” to raise taxes is really just a lazy narrative. This is a guy who has remained in power for a long time by maintaining a majority. Why would he “want” to risk that majority? If it was simply what Madigan “wanted” he would have sprinkled IPI fairy dust on the budget, made a couple cuts, and voila! Balanced budget and everyone is happy with incumbents. But since that’s not how the real world works, he had to cobble a majority together to raise the income tax in order to keep the state from a financial collapse. I’m sure it was the last thing he “wanted” to do. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 11:41 am: The idea that Rauner needed to protect his right flank seems nuts to me. - Ahoy! - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 11:44 am: I agree these folks folks are not wise in the way of the world, it’s why some people in academia can’t survive outside of it when it comes to implementation. Writing reports and coming up with theories is a whole lot different than running and managing complex organizations. Rauner is running like somebody who has lost his mind. Illinois is not an IPI kind of state and 2018 is not going to be a good year for the Republicans. At this point, he needs to resign himself to not run for reelection and let someone else run who will take it seriously. - jim - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 11:44 am: george, don’t you remember two years ago when Madigan passed his multi-billion dollar deficit budget and said he would work with rauner on raising the taxes needed to balance it. that’s what I mean. must have slipped your memory. - Anon - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 11:45 am: Among those let go were Rauner’s most loyal soldiers. Like him or not, Rauner is no fool. Like any successful political leader, he needs to be surrounded by loyalists. Look no further than Madigan. But how can he expect his new picks to be loyal when they saw the fate of their predecessors? Could it be that they know Rauner isn’t calling the shots now? You gotta wonder… - Langhorne - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 11:45 am: Do any of these superstars have actual experience running a large, complex organization, particularly a govt agency? Doing a “position paper” is not the same, no matter how many charts and footnotes you put in it. - Robert J Hironimus-Wendt - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 11:52 am: This may seem a little off track, but given Rauner’s apparent commitment to the Koch/ALEC/IPI/Brietbart/Scott Walker model of government, who will the Republicans primary against him? I have lived in Illinois for 22 years - 10 in Decatur, 12 in McDonough County (not in Macomb). Previous, I have lived in Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Louisiana. One thing I have learned about Republicans in Illinois is that there are clearly two prominent themes. One is the “Tea Party types” who see themselves as expert policy wonks, which in truth they are not. They simply re-present political dogma that they know will cause great harm, in an intentional race to the bottom, so to speak. The other republicans are found in rural communities (i.e., county folks). Most are actually quite progressive in terms of caring for the poor, and actually tend to help the poor in their communities. While they do not like paying taxes, they know that their schools and their roads and their clean water and their sheriffs need tax revenues. Why is there not a republican leader advocating for the latter - a compassionate, fisal conservative? Will Illinoisan Republicans find one so as to primary Rauner, or will they be defined by Rauner and his ilk? - Shore - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 11:59 am: The quote about the simulator is really really good and I think this move like Bannon joining the WH will long term be good for Republicans and especially moderates. A certain part of the conservative movement has always been able to claim total victory because as pundits they never had to make the kind of governing decisions team Rauners new folks will have to make now in the state and people like Cruz are having to make in DC. They can’t sit in offices outside government and call for tax cuts while urging support for veterans, cops ect. I think it’s a great move. It’s also great for the party to get some fresh blood in there. People with new energy, ideas, solutions. - hexagon - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 12:07 pm: I think some of the people who argue that getting revenue and vetoing the tax hike was a win are projecting their practical political logic onto Rauner. I see that it’s practically a win for him, in a limited sense. But, from these hires I think he’s obviously regarded it as a loss and the lesson he took was too harden his position. I agree then that his ideology is backed by religious faith, because the evidence suggests he should be more compromising. He’s lost already. He’ll only lose more. The question is what more damage will he inflict? - Beau Jest - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 12:13 pm: Try the parsimony; it’s very satisfying: The Governor has called in a relief column to reinforce the defensive position being established at Fort Zinderneuf. - George - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 12:18 pm: Jim, that doesn’t explain anything. The Governor proposed a budget that was out of balance and said he’d agree to raise taxes if the he got his whole agenda enacted. He didn’t get it, but he acknowledged taxes needed to be raised to balance his budget. So I guess was can start calling it “the tax increase Rauner wanted” too? - Deadbeat Conservative - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 12:40 pm: =Outside the dorm room debate club is more like it. The simulator analogy presumes some practical training in operations and management.= Could it be that is a thinly-veiled hire of state-paid campaign staff ? I ask because hiring staff to help perform the duties of executive administration of government operations would be a 180 degree turnaround for Rauner. He’s been in campaign / propagandist mode since his inauguration speech. - Honeybear - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 12:58 pm: Taking Cruelty Heartlessness Callousness To a whole new level. - Ahoy! - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 1:58 pm: I also forgot to mention that this extremist move to the right by team Rauner is just going to make it easier for rank and file to ignore him. Just like he pushed labor and rank and file democrats to Madigan, Rauner is now pushing moderates and non-crazy Republicans to Madigan and the Senate will probably soon follow to Cullerton. This is starting to look more and more like the Trump circus. - filanges - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 2:13 pm: Ahoy! makes a very good point. I have so far shrugged off all the Dem attempts to tie Rauner to Trump, but these latest moves (tantrum, IPI hires) and his apparent disconnect with the state’s fiscal reality are looking very Trumpian. The IPI outsiders have a view of government that is like Steve Bannon without all the neo-nazi racism. They hate government, don’t think it has any value - but they want to run the government . . . - ryan - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 2:36 pm: ==I think some of the people who argue that getting revenue and vetoing the tax hike was a win are projecting their practical political logic onto Rauner. I see that it’s practically a win for him, in a limited sense. But, from these hires I think he’s obviously regarded it as a loss and the lesson he took was too harden his position.== That’s an interesting angle I hadn’t considered. I saw the veto override as a win for BVR. The obvious being he gets the campaign material of his veto and pinning the tax hike on MJM, all while reaping the benefits of the additional revenue. All obvious political wins, right? But at the same time these are all dogmatic losses. He didn’t get his reforms. Taxes went up. That makes for a sad BVR at his very core. He could partially remedy this loss by not spending the additional tax dollars (what’s within his discretion). But then he owns the cuts and loses politically with all but the far right. Also, he would be shown to be hoarding the additional tax revenue while owning the cuts, which harms him with a greater spectrum. Or he could choose to just spend the money as appropriated. But then he’s a hypocrite and behaving just like a Democrat. And that hurts his soul. So I agree with hexagon. Superficially it’s a clear political win, but it offends his being, and the political win may not actually be a win in the end. - Team Warwick - Wednesday, Jul 12, 17 @ 3:15 pm: Flapdoodle said it Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.