*** UPDATED x2 *** Is Preckwinkle toast?
Thursday, Aug 17, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Cook County registered voters poll by We Ask America…
In general, do you APPROVE, or DISAPPROVE of the job Cook County President Toni Preckwinkle is doing?
Do you AGREE, or DISAGREE with the following statement: “I will probably vote to re-elect Toni Preckwinkle as County Board President no matter who is running against her.”
Yes 16.18%
No 75.06%
Unsure 8.76%
Does that fact that Toni Preckwinkle cast the deciding vote that created the Cook County beverage tax make you MORE LIKELY or LESS LIKELY to vote to re-elect her?
More likely to re elect 10.00%
Less likely to re elect 84.49%
No difference 5.51%
Wow.
* Greg Hinz…
If the survey is right, Preckwinkle’s personal numbers are almost as bad as those for her penny-an-ounce tax on sweetened beverages. […]
“President Preckwinkle is solely focused on navigating the county through tough economic circumstances and leading on behalf of the people of Cook County,” Preckwinkle political aide Scott Kastrup said in a statement. “Her strong record of reforming county government, improving access to healthcare, protecting public safety services and standing up to special interests are why she has broad support across the county and why she’s in strong position to win-re-election next year.” […]
Crosstabs indicate there is little variation among racial and ethnic groups about Preckwinkle and her tax. For instance, disapproval of her job performance ranges from 65 percent among whites and 67 percent among African Americans to 81 percent among Latinos. […]
The only figure now known to be actively considering a race against Preckwinkle in next year’s elections is fellow commissioner Richard Boykin, a Democrat who represents the West Side and western suburbs including Oak Park.
You can’t beat somebody with nobody, so we’ll see if she gets an opponent. And maybe the furor will die down, or maybe it won’t. But these county numbers are worse than a recent statewide poll of Donald Trump’s and Bruce Rauner’s approval ratings.
* Methodology…
This poll was conducted from August 15 through August 16, 2017 using both automated (recorded) and live operator-initiated calls cell phones. In all, 902 registered voters completed all questions on the poll; 450 of the responses came from cell phones. The voters dialed were randomly selected from a proprietary registered-voter database of likely voters to assure the greatest chance of providing an accurate cross-section of opinion from the county-wide sample. No weighting formulas were applied to correct any over- and under-sampling.
MoE is ±3.26%. Crosstabs are here.
*** UPDATE 1 *** Tribune…
Cook County officials say they’ve solved a problem with the new sweetened beverage tax that put roughly $87 million in funding used to run the federal food stamp program in Illinois at risk of being withheld. […]
The county solved the issue by striking language permitting refunds from the regulation, which “will ensure ongoing access of SNAP benefits for eligible Illinois households,” county spokesman Frank Shuftan said in a statement Thursday.
The USDA confirmed that the county notified the agency that it had corrected the issue.
*** UPDATE 2 *** ILGOP…
Cook County is fed up with politics as usual from Toni Preckwinkle. A shocking poll out today finds that there is overwhelming opposition to Preckwinkle’s signature tax - nearly 7 in 10 registered Cook County voters oppose her soda tax.
But where does J.B. Pritzker stand? So far, all we’ve heard is silence from the normally talkative billionaire.
Could it be that Pritzker’s ties to the Cook County machine prevent him from speaking out?
Could it be that Pritzker is just so thankful for the Cook County Democratic Party’s endorsement that he refuses to take on their reckless members and stand up for taxpayers?
Or maybe running mate Juliana Stratton is stopping Pritzker from doing the right thing – since she’s a “member of Ms. Preckwinkle’s inner circle” and her “protégé”.
Either way, Pritzker’s silence says it all - he’s okay with massive tax hikes that threaten to take millions in federal funding away from those in need.
- Ghost - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:24 pm:
If its sweet toast is there an added tax?
- Ravenswood Right Winger - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:28 pm:
I hope so. Please run, Commissionner Boykin!
- Chicago Cynic - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:28 pm:
These numbers are devastating and consistent with the recent IMA poll. It’s not surprising. She was warned and ignored the warning. She needs a better opponent than Boykin but she’s clearly vulnerable. This tax is a disaster.
- Austinman - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:30 pm:
IF Boykin gets the resources she’s sweet toast
- Roman - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:31 pm:
“Wow” is right. These numbers will draw interest from pols well beyond just Richard Boykin.
- Almost the weekend - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:34 pm:
These numbers are asking for a primary. The judge blocking the tax was a blessing in disguise in hindsight.
- walker - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:36 pm:
Always thought the Cook Co President job would kill anyone’s political reputation after a couple of terms. A very tough fiscal challenge, with little public credit to be attained. Winning the primary is the only route to holding the office, and internal party politics has to be the key.
The soda tax was an unnecessary self-wound. I still don’t see a good opponent stepping up from either side.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:36 pm:
I’ve always liked Preckwinkle but this was a strange hill to die on.
- Name/Nickname/Anon - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:37 pm:
This is unfortunate, the situation is in no way analogous to Stroger Jr. Patronage seems to be nearly gone, workforce has been greatly reduced. The only way to reduce expenses is to significantly reduce service, get rid of the hospital system, or go back to making insufficient pension contributions.
Maybe she should have gone elsewhere for revenue, but I don’t see a lot of options.
- Anon123 - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:37 pm:
An interesting “Open Letter to Cook County Voters on the Soda Tax”
http://www.opnlttr.com/letter/open-letter-voters-cook-county-about-toni-preckwinkles-soda-tax
- The Captain - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:38 pm:
I doubt she’ll only get one primary opponent but we’ll see, it takes more signatures to run countywide in Cook County as a Democrat than it does to run statewide. That will easily weed out the wannabes.
- Downers Grove Guy - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:38 pm:
Wow. I assume it won’t just be potential opponents who jump on this–the beverage industry is probably drooling at the prospect of using this to push for a reversal on the tax.
- Too Much to Handle - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:41 pm:
Toni’s biggest problem is Toni. She is so tone-deaf and heavy handed, she governs in a way that does not consider opinions different from hers. Its the my way or the highway approach that will be her undoing… unless she finally gets the message.
- 47th Ward - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:43 pm:
Cook County Board President is the worst political job in Illinois. All you get to do is raise taxes and pay bills. You’ve got a bunch of independently elected officials under you who never cut their budgets, never work together, never play like a team. The Board President gets the blame for raising the taxes that get spent by other people.
And complicating matters, chances are, if you’re from Cook County and you’ve had close contact with County government, it means you’ve either been in the criminal justice system or been treated in its hospital, neither experience is likely to have been warm and fuzzy.
I think she’s been a terrific president, for the most part. The pop tax really backfired on her though.
- Ron - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:44 pm:
Good, she is now worse than Stroger. Can we get a fiscal conservative that isn’t a right wing nut casae please?
- filanges - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:44 pm:
Paging Commissioner John Fritchey, Commisisoner Fritchey your order is ready
- Ron - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:44 pm:
The truth is, the County has to reduce services.
- Swingvoter - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:48 pm:
This is cook county registered voter numbers. Those numbers are meaningless. I’m interested in likely Dem primary voters in numbers
- DownstateKid - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:50 pm:
Anecdote Alert..
Coworker is a frequent customer of 7/11 and reaps enough rewards for a free big gulp every couple weeks. Well his “free” big gulp now cost a penny per oz. even though it’s a reward…He was raging mad and he is completely a-political in the office.
- crazybleedingheart - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:50 pm:
Toast? LOL. Hardly.
People are mad, the numbers are bad.
But there are far worse things than “heavy-handed” management of the post-Stroger county government. 47th is right about the job — and imagining any likely contender having it instead is a nightmare.
- crazybleedingheart - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:51 pm:
==the County has to reduce services==
which ones?
- Roman - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:52 pm:
These numbers are almost exactly the same as Todd Stroger’s a year before his disastrous re-election campaign. I didn’t think it was possible for a countywide official to ever poll as poorly as Todd did.
Double wow.
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2009-09-10/news/chi-stroger-poll-sep-10_1_board-president-todd-stroger-democratic-party-leaders-poll
- MacombMike - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:52 pm:
===Paging Commissioner John Fritchey, Commissioner Fritchey your order is ready
That was my first thought. My second thought was: Imagine a world where Claypool decided not to run against Stroger. How different Chicago/Cook politics would have been
- Responsa - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:52 pm:
e pluribus unum Toni has done the near impossible. She has united the electorate.
- Grand Avenue - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:53 pm:
If the beverage industry gives Boykin $5 Million, he’ll win - and I have a feeling they will.
- Grand Avenue - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:56 pm:
It has to be Boykin as the challenger, because if it’s Fritchey, then it becomes a race about race and the black vote will come out to defend what is now seen as a “black seat”
- lake county democrat - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 12:59 pm:
I don’t like the bill to squelch the ability of other counties to have a soda tax (much as I dislike the cook county one), but I wonder if the Dems have a choice. Would you want a Rauner-backed candidate running ads saying but for Madigan toady ____, a soda tax may be coming your way?
- Sue - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:00 pm:
What a shock- her opinion piece was very honest- I needed to do this dumb tax so Cook County could continue to spend money without regard to any fiscal reforms or restraint. What do people want me to do - actually reform Cook County?
- Grand Avenue - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:07 pm:
Fritchey too also caught a totally bogus & unfair racism rap when he tried to make Clerk of the Court appointed and also when he successfully passed a referendum to merge the Clerk & Recorder’s office. So if Fritchey ran, that rap would get repeated in the black community and make the race more about race than the pop tax.
- JB13 - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:07 pm:
Preckwinkle’s big mistakes have been 1) threatening to sue the folks that challenged the tax in court and 2) defending the tax every chance she gets. She should have just sighed, rolled her eyes, and said something like: “No one enjoys a tax like this. But this is a lamentable outcome no one wished for, but which was compelled by budgetary realities foisted on us all by the incompetence and near criminal malfeasance of the Rauner administration.”
Rauner and the IPI would respond, and the partisans would take their customary positions. She probably would weather this. And she still may. She is, after all, a powerful Democrat in Cook County.
- NoGifts - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:09 pm:
I didn’t really care about the soda tax because I think soda really is bad for people’s health. So that did not change my opinion about re-electing Preckwinkle. However, the lawsuit against someone who went to court to stop the tax was abusive and does make me not want to re-elect her. I am a Cook County resident.
- HoneyBadger - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:14 pm:
Commissioner Jeff Tobolski for Cook County Board President!
- RoscoeRatMatt - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:17 pm:
Scorched toast in this household’s book. Can’t wait to hit the polls to express my displeasure.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:18 pm:
The rollout of that pop tax is going to be one for the pol sci books on exactly how not to implement policy.
An unpopular idea is one thing. An unpopular idea that is impossible to implement because absolutely no one understands the rules is another.
- Ward Heeler - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:22 pm:
Bullwinkle was never a good fit for an executive level position, but her edge was that she was challenging the embattled Todd Stroger. Remember when Toni campaigned as the candidate opposed to higher taxes?
There were reams of data from Philadelphia as to why the per ounce beverage tax was the wrong policy to implement and Toni cast the deciding vote for the flawed tax.
- Trapped in the 'burbs - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:23 pm:
As Harold Washington said, “hubris is arrogance run wild.” Preckwinkle is a bully. She loses to any credible candidate. Boykin is a credible candidate. Besides the beverage people are a number of big unions that want Toni gone.
- Say What? - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:26 pm:
Toni Preckwinkle also bears responsibility for pushing Kim Foxx for State’s Attorney. Having a soft on crime prosecutor in violent times is not playing well with some voters who want criminals jailed.
- Just Observing - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:29 pm:
=== “Her strong record of reforming county government, improving access to healthcare, protecting public safety services and standing up to special interests are why she has broad support across the county and why she’s in strong position to win-re-election next year.” ===
Evidently not.
- JoeMaddon - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:33 pm:
These are really bad numbers. But Richard Boykin and his Kirk-endorsing history isnt the candidate that Preckwinkle was to Stroger.
But who is? Ameya Pawar?
- Northside Dude - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:39 pm:
Didn’t anyone review what happened in Philadelphia after they enacted a soda tax? Sales of pop down 50% - net negative for revenue. The tax is a political and policy loser.
- Savy13 - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:42 pm:
I would think Com. Gainer is the one to watch.
She’s well funded and has made inroads to the African American community through the Land Bank.
- FTR - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:58 pm:
-JoeMaddon-
Good thought about Pawar. Though, I might be thinking about taking on Berrios if I were him.
- Responsa - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 1:59 pm:
== But Richard Boykin and his Kirk-endorsing history==
Don’t overlook that many Cook County suburban Rs voted for Toni because they know a D will always win the Cook County Board presidency and thought they preferred her . And they won’t won’t vote for her again. Boykin’s endorsement history many not be the kiss of death you envision.
- Ron - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 2:03 pm:
which ones?
All of them.
- Ron - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 2:04 pm:
I’m not sure I trust Boykin. But I’ll keep my eye on him as a potential Toni replacement.
- Adam Smith - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 2:19 pm:
Boykin is a pretty seasoned pro. Very good on the stump and has very broad connections (yes, God forbid, even some Republicans.)
When the money people go shopping they will give Boykin a serious look.
- Mike Cirrincione - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 2:29 pm:
@anonymous 1236pm:
I agree with you completely. I think she has been good public servant for the county for a long time.
- Ron - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 2:47 pm:
Mike, she used to be a good public servant. She’s now worse than Todd Stroger.
- Amalia - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 2:57 pm:
LOLOLOL Toni Toni Toni. Don’t run again. Yet, knowing the weird Cook County racial politics anything is possible. And, who would be the opponent? Would be thrilling to get rid of her, and her legal advisers (Foxx, that First Assistant of yours performed poorly in court the other day. who gave the legal advice on the Drink tax?). Toni Preckwinkle and Joe Berrios will be a drag around the necks of other Democrats. Imagine the ads, those two AND Madigan. Step away. You have pensions. AND, actual reform administration. Toni (and Judge Evans) long ago ceased to be people resembling any kind of a reformer. Pensions. Resign.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 3:07 pm:
The pop tax will be for Toni what the blizzard was for Mayor Bilandic. It affects everyday people and angers them.
I also think in interviews on Chicago Tonight she is both evasive and arrogant. She makes Rahm look candid and humble.
Since Yarbrough is running for Orr’s seat, why doesn’t Chuy challenge Toni? He’s got the name recognition and there’s a huge Latino vote.
- City Zen - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 3:24 pm:
==Maybe she should have gone elsewhere for revenue, but I don’t see a lot of options.==
John H. Stroger Jr. Hospital of Cook County Presented By Crestor
- City Zen - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 3:32 pm:
==the County has to reduce services==
==which ones?==
The ones lowest on the priority list. Work your way up from there until budget is balanced.
- charles in charge - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 3:48 pm:
==Toni Preckwinkle also bears responsibility for pushing Kim Foxx for State’s Attorney. Having a soft on crime prosecutor in violent times is not playing well with some voters who want criminals jailed.==
Who are these “some voters” that you say are displeased with SA Foxx’s performance, and why? Seems to me she’s doing a good job and is pretty popular. What am I missing? I must not read the Second City Cop blog enough.
- Robert the Bruce - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 3:55 pm:
Her best chance is to do a reversal on this pop tax and propose something to replace it, something soak-the-rich populist, like doubling the taxes on million dollar homes.
- Grand Avenue - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 4:19 pm:
The attack on Boykin will be to imply that he is a secret Republican - that was the line of attack used against him in 2014 when he first ran for his Commissioner seat.
- Too Much to Handle - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 4:33 pm:
=== Who are these “some voters” that you say are displeased with SA Foxx’s performance, and why? Seems to me she’s doing a good job and is pretty popular. What am I missing? I must not read the Second City Cop blog enough. ===
SA Foxx is doing a horrible job administering that office. The Civil Actions Bureau has been decimated, and dozens of very talented and dedicated attorneys have left the office. Those attorneys have not been replaced btw. The office is operating at a level that is going to cost the County millions (they represent all County offices in all litigation). The kicker is that she has boosted the number of positions in the Administration-level positions. It is eventually going to hit the fan over there.
- Rocky Rosi - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 4:38 pm:
Boykin wins unless Tom Dart plus another black candidate gets in the race. I don’t think Dart will run and Boykin is the only black politician in CC that can raise money.
- charles in charge - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 4:47 pm:
==SA Foxx is doing a horrible job administering that office. The Civil Actions Bureau has been decimated==
Too bad this guy’s not still around, huh?
https://www.bettergov.org/news/county-official-resigns-over-facebook-posts
- Amalia - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 4:57 pm:
Too Much to Handle is right on about the CCSAO….Foxx is losing very very smart and talented people. Could be why there was such a mess on the Toni Tax. The perception created that the SAO is a bunch of racists is ridiculous. Some of the smartest and most creative lawyers I have ever encountered simply could not stand the Foxx approach. She’s damaging. Toni has caused so much upheaval in Cook County government. Who is going to unearth Julianna Stratton actions? That could be another election issue.
- anon2 - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 5:11 pm:
The IL GOP should be pulling for Preckwinkle to win the primary. That would be the only hope any Republican would have of being elected county board president. The last one I can recall was Olgivie.
- PhD - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 5:29 pm:
==Sales of pop down 50% - net negative for revenue.==
The tax saves lives and will eventually lower medical costs. If only the tax on Cigarettes worked so well.
- Ron - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 5:43 pm:
“The tax saves lives and will eventually lower medical costs. If only the tax on Cigarettes worked so well.”
No it won’t. Soda addicts will buy their soda elsewhere. If this was a national tax, I might agree.
- Amalia - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 6:09 pm:
yep, right on cue, the GOP connects Stratton to Preckwinkle. And to think that just some days ago on this board a few of us were lonely in the opinion that Toni, Toni, Toni was going to create trouble for the Dems with this badly done tax measure.
- Ron - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 6:12 pm:
Virtually anyone but a Trump like buffoon will be better than Toni.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 6:18 pm:
==No it won’t. Soda addicts will buy their soda elsewhere.==
I agree, the tax would be more effective if it spread to the surrounding region. Nevertheless, modest barriers might change behavior because sugary drinks are less addictive than cigarettes.
- PhD - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 6:18 pm:
@6:18 pm was me.
- anon2 - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 6:51 pm:
== No it won’t. Soda addicts will buy their soda elsewhere. ==
Higher taxes on cigarettes and alcohol reduce sales and consumption. If consumers respond to price with more habit-forming substances, perhaps they will with soda pop as well.
- City Zen - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 8:41 pm:
==The tax saves lives…==
Simultaneously resolving Illinois’ population decline and exacerbating its pension debt. Is there anything it can’t do?
- PhD - Thursday, Aug 17, 17 @ 10:45 pm:
==exacerbating its pension debt.==
It is usually assumed that saving lives is good public policy even if pension costs increase.