Question of the day
Thursday, Oct 12, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sun-Times on Ameya Pawar…
“I’m not ruling anything out. I just don’t want to talk about another office or another race today or any time in the near future. But I can tell you I’m not done in politics. I’m sure that I will run again.”
A natural alternative for supporters of Pawar’s populist campaign is progressive State Sen. Daniel Biss (D-Evanston). But Pawar said he is not prepared to endorse any of his opponents “at this time.”
* Greg Hinz…
Pawar’s absence may boost the chance that Biss or Kennedy will emerge as the top competitor to Pritzker, instead splitting the anti-establishment vote. […]
Meanwhile, a Democratic political consultant who’s not affiliated with any candidate for governor, ex-Rahm Emanuel aide Tom Bowen, agrees with my take that Pawar’s withdrawal “frees up a little more of the progressive lane, probably to Biss.”
But Pawar didn’t have that much support to start with, so the impact is limited, Bowen continued. “If Kennedy or Biss left, that makes a difference.”
But Biss seriously disrupted his own campaign when he picked and then dropped Ald. Carlos Ramirez-Rosa as his lieutenant governor running mate. And Kennedy has yet to find his stride as a contender, with his fund-raising short of what he’ll really need to be competitive against Pritzker.
* The Question: What impact, if any, will Pawar’s exit have on the gubernatorial campaign?
- DuPage Bard - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 12:55 pm:
Last poll had him at about 4% so I don’t see this as a real movement or numbers deal for anyone.
Thankfully he’s not pulling a Schillerstrom and taking votes from folks by having his name remain on the ballot.
- 47th Ward - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 12:55 pm:
It makes it more likely that Biss gets the progressive vote. If he does though, it will be by default and not because Biss earned their support. Spite can be helpful in politics, but it will only get you so far.
Daniel Biss in no Bernie Sanders though, so I wonder if the Bernie Bros sit this one out.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 12:58 pm:
The discussion that Pawar wanted as part of his campaign may be championed by one or more of those that may eventually file with enough signatures to be on the ballot.
The actual numbers, be it polling or votes that will happen within the next 5+ months…
The margin of error in polls yet to be done might be smaller with fewer “names” to choose from in poll(s) and the eventual vote tallies.
That’s really just it, I guess.
- Gooner - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 12:59 pm:
Marginal help to Biss for those looking for somebody is not self-funded. I don’t think the two campaigns had much in common beyond that though.
However, overall I don’t think the target voter was similar. If Biss runs the race I expect he will get around to running, his target voter will be adults who want a Governor with some working knowledge as to how to solve the problems of Illinois.
In contrast, Pawar seemed to be going for the Sanders “we can solve problems by targeted use of rainbows and unicorns” voters.
- The Captain - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 12:59 pm:
Obviously Biss is the biggest beneficiary, he’s been trying to build his campaign from left to right but it’s been a problem that he’s had Pawar sitting to his left. With Pawar’s exit Biss has an unobstructed foundation to build from.
Having said that, the impact of the Rosa debacle is probably a little more keenly felt today.
- WellActually - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 1:00 pm:
Helps Kennedy, if he’s smart and makes a play for Pewar’s activist base. Most people who followed the recent democratic candidates forum liked his performance. Biss lost a lot of legitimacy with his Lt. Gov pick debacle among active political circles.
- Time - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 1:01 pm:
Zero. Pawar has very little support. Average voter would not know his name.
- Perrid - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 1:02 pm:
I agree with the others, I see it as pretty minimal. I just don’t think he had the exposure or the support to sway the numbers. A lot of people I know have never even heard of him (I live down state). I saw a few online ads for the whole “Don’t close our communities” thing in the last few weeks, but that’s it.
- Ron Burgundy - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 1:05 pm:
Agree pretty minimal. Not sure it helps Biss or Kennedy measurably. Biss, because of the Lt. Gov misstep and Kennedy because some of his positions are not exactly progressive.
- Precinct Captain - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 1:11 pm:
His margin of error polling percentage will go to someone else.
- Anonish - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 1:13 pm:
I like Pawar personally but the biggest impact of his dropping out is that future debate/forum planners have one less candidate to worry about. That’s it.
- BuckinIrish - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 1:15 pm:
I feel that Pawar’s numbers would have gone up had he had enough money to sustain his campaign to the primary. So while his dropout means little now, I think it prevented him from stealing Kennedy/Biss votes in the future. With Kennedy carrying Chewy around with him now, I think this could free up some Pawar people for him.
- Ghost - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 1:17 pm:
fewer bus trips, dip in gas sales….
- Come on man! - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 1:18 pm:
The 47th ward was the best performing “progressive” ward in the City. I don’t know who wins but Gainer and Rosenfeld just lost their ultimate out on who they plan on supporting for Gov. Should be interesting.
- @MisterJayEm - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 1:20 pm:
“What impact, if any, will Pawar’s exit have on the gubernatorial campaign?”
At a minimum, it gives Biss a chance to pick up some supporters who aren’t afraid of an uphill battle.
If Biss handles it perfectly, and sweeps up all of Pawar’s campaign volunteers AND gets Pawar’s endorsement, Biss could drag his campaign back to where it was before the his lieutenant governor running mate fiasco.
– MrJM
- Sonny - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 1:29 pm:
Next to zero. This was a vanity project from the start.
- Anon0091 - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 1:31 pm:
“If Biss handles it perfectly, and sweeps up all of Pawar’s campaign volunteers AND gets Pawar’s endorsement, Biss could drag his campaign back to where it was before the his lieutenant governor running mate fiasco.”
MrJM nails it…precisely. Biss is not doing well. The Pawar exit gives him an opportunity to garner more of the progressive vote, but it’s by no means a foregone conclusion. Kennedy will fight for those voters as will JB. Biss P.O.’d a lot of those folks with the Rosa fiasco so this might help him consolidate some of that vote. Maybe he gets up to 7 or 8%…maybe.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 1:36 pm:
Zip. Nada. None. Zero. The null set
- Northsider - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 1:39 pm:
Bupkis.
- TopHatMonocle - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 1:41 pm:
Wild guess based on Dem vote totals for 47th ward and statewide in 2016 is that Pawar would have received somewhere around 2% of the vote. Some go to Biss, some go to Kennedy, some go to Pritzker. It’s a wash, has no impact, and at the end of the day he dropped out because he didn’t have support.
- Curl of the Burl - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 1:50 pm:
It will make the City of Cairo sad.
- Pot calling kettle - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 1:53 pm:
It will help Biss attract more supporters. While it is likely a small number, at this point, it’s the activists who are in play and they are the folks who make contacts and spread the word. Having a few more of those folks now can pay off in 6 months. Biss can’t match the $$$, but if he can pull in the activists, that’s his best hope.
So, a little help for Biss now, but with the folks who could make a significant difference by March.
- Robert the Bruce - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 1:54 pm:
He didn’t have much support anyway, but the fewer candidates onstage, the less it looks like Pritzker and the seven dwarfs, and the more Kennedy has to talk. Advantage: Biss.
- 47th Ward - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 1:54 pm:
===Pawar would have received somewhere around 2% of the vote.===
We’ll never know, will we?
Also, had he dropped out when stuck in a similar position, struggling in single digits and facing two well financed opponents plus a gaggle of others, Barack Obama might have gone quietly into private law practice. Instead, he raised just enough money to put a couple of ads up and then caught lightening in a bottle.
All we know is that Pawar won’t be on the ballot. No one here has a crystal ball, despite the rhetorical bravado of so many here.
- Christopher - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 2:00 pm:
I thought it was interesting that Pawar said he would not endorse anyone to be the Democratic candidate for Governor at this time, even though he added, “They are good people, and any one of them will make a fine governor.”
- MG85 - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 2:00 pm:
The biggest impact is that the media will no longer have to remember Pawar is running.
- Thomas Paine - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 2:02 pm:
Pritzker benefits.
The 47th Ward Democratic organization endorsed Pawar. Now, they will almost certainly support Pritzker.
Pawar isn’t going to endorse Biss, who ticked off the Bernie Bros.
Pawar isn’t going to endorse Kennedy, who opposes legalizing marijuana.
In the end, Pawar might not endorse anyone.
But the 47th Ward has really rebuilt Its GOTV effort and was #1 for Hillary in 2016, so I expect that endorsement is what will matter most.
- Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 2:06 pm:
I really don’t see much of an effect. Let’s say half his voters go to Biss, a third to Kennedy, and the remainder to Pritzker… does that actually have an impact on where the race sits at any point in time?
- zatoichi - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 2:07 pm:
He was who?
- Christopher - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 2:10 pm:
Could someone please tell me if there has been a more recent poll of who is leading the competition to be the Democratic candidate? I keep seeing here that Kennedy had the lead with 44% but that was from a while back.
- Thomas Paine - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 2:17 pm:
With all due respect to Tom Bowen, of course.
This requires some micro-analysis.
Do I read something into the fact that Rahm and JB had their statements fired up and ready to go? I do. It could be they are just better prepared. It could also be they were told this announcement was coming. I am going with the latter.
- Bucktown Chuck - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 2:26 pm:
As Bowen said this will help Biss consolidate the progressives and anti-establishment voters who are turned off by the idea of self-funders.
Despite the fireworks to come the race will stay stable. JB wins a tougher than expected primary with 41% of the vote, Biss over performs and gets 29% and Kennedy under performs with 24%. There isn’t a lot that can change the dynamics of the race.
- ILPundit - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 2:34 pm:
In terms of the “progressive lane”, I think Pawar’s withdrawal matters less than Chuy Garcia’s endorsement of Kennedy.
I don’t think Pawar or Biss managed to really establish themselves as serious competitors yet. Unfortunately for Biss, he’s now known primarily as the guy who dropped Rosa, and I’m not sure how he gets away from that.
- blue dog dem - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 2:34 pm:
Won’t be a blip on the radar.
- Bucktown Chuck - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 3:20 pm:
Chuy helps with the Latino vote for sure but there is no way progressive/bernie voters rally behind Kennedy because Chuy endorsed him. Chuy voters were more anti Rahm voters and will be anti JB voters in the upcoming primary.
- Ron Burgundy - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 3:55 pm:
–Could someone please tell me if there has been a more recent poll of who is leading the competition to be the Democratic candidate? I keep seeing here that Kennedy had the lead with 44% but that was from a while back.–
No recent media polls that I am aware of. May be waiting for the filings to shake out the field. As for campaign polls, well only one candidate for certain has enough money to do one. I’m sure they have. I’m beginning to wonder if the lack of any results being published are telling and if Kennedy’s name recognition is still keeping him elevated.
- Veil of Ignorance - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 4:24 pm:
I think this benefits both Kennedy and Biss as the media will start be able to focus in on 3 Dem candidates with more depth of coverage than in the past. Get beyond just the horse race analysis. They better have their pitch down since they’ll get a bit more earned media time and attention and more opportunities to differentiate from Pritzker in any forum/debates.
- Arsenal - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 4:24 pm:
==No recent media polls that I am aware of. May be waiting for the filings to shake out the field. As for campaign polls, well only one candidate for certain has enough money to do one. I’m sure they have. I’m beginning to wonder if the lack of any results being published are telling and if Kennedy’s name recognition is still keeping him elevated.==
All 3 have enough money to poll. Remember that 44% poll was a Kennedy internal. And as such, you might flip that around and wonder why the candidate who has repeatedly been forced to deny that he’s dropping out hasn’t released another poll showing him with the lead.
- A guy - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 4:28 pm:
None
- Ron Burgundy - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 4:36 pm:
Arsenal — Fair. Suffice to say if anyone had a poll with them having a sizable lead they’d trumpet it.
- Mike - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 4:40 pm:
Instead of Pritzker winning by a 30 point margin, I suppose it now will be by about 31 points.
- ILDemVoter - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 4:53 pm:
I’m confused where these poll numbers have come from…I haven’t seen poll results from a verified 3rd party source since June. Someone please include link. Also “average” ie. non-political voters hardly even know who is declared. About 5,000 politcos in Chicago that read this website daily know the deal and have an opinion, but theres way more people who don’t and will make a decision in March…may the best ground game win.
- Arsenal - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 5:05 pm:
==I’m confused where these poll numbers have come from…I haven’t seen poll results from a verified 3rd party source since June.==
I think that *is* the poll most people reference. And yeah, it’s old numbers, but nothing’s stopping anyone from releasing new ones.
- Anon0091 - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 5:06 pm:
“Arsenal — Fair. Suffice to say if anyone had a poll with them having a sizable lead they’d trumpet it.”
Not necessarily. But I suspect we’ll see some public polling pretty soon.
- theCardinal - Thursday, Oct 12, 17 @ 7:33 pm:
rookie mistake should have pulled up when others were looking for a Lt Guv side kick. Parlay what you have into something else set your table for the future.