* AP…
The 2018 Illinois governor’s race is on pace to be the most expensive in U.S. history, propelled by a wealthy Republican incumbent and a billionaire Democrat who are airing TV ads and hopping private planes to campaign events more than a year before Election Day. […]
But this is not a typical race. All of the candidates combined have raised more than $100 million in the past year. Most of that comes from Pritzker and Rauner’s own money.
That’s almost as much as was spent in the entire 2014 governor’s race, which set an Illinois record at $112 million. […]
If the trend continues the contest “absolutely” could surpass the most expensive governor’s race to date, a record set in California in 2010, said Colin Williams, the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform’s political data director. He said candidates spent about $280 million in that race, in which former Gov. Jerry Brown defeated ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Meg Whitman.
* Back in July, Scott Kennedy looked at a similar prediction…
Aside from Pritzker the other Democratic gubernatorial candidates have combined to spend about $1.4 million so far, let’s say for argument’s sake they spend another $15 million on top of that in the primary. For our general election predictions let’s use Rauner’s 2014 spending as a guide. In 2014 Rauner had about $6 million in production expenses, let’s estimate that both Rauner and Pritzker will have about $7 million in production expenses this cycle. In 2014 Rauner directly spent about $3 million in mail plus had another $2.5 million from the Illinois Republican party for mail, for this exercise let’s estimate they each spend about $6 million in mail. Let’s give them each $1 million for polling, $3 million for materials (yard signs, buttons, bumper stickers, t-shirts, etc.) and $15 million for operations (operations, travel, payroll, consulting, etc.). Throw in the $9.3 million that Pritzker has already spent plus the $4 million that Rauner has already spent and you’ve accounted for about $94 million without even getting to media buys for the rest of the cycle yet. […]
The figures above total $93.7 million dollars, an impressive figure but still far from $300 million. The rest has to be spent on media buys between now and election day (the amount already spent on media buys and other campaign expenditures is listed above).
I don’t believe anyone is currently airing TV ads, although digital ads may be ongoing. But for argument’s sake let’s say both Rauner and Pritzker went back up on TV the day after Labor Day (a Tuesday) and didn’t come down until general election day 2018 (also a Tuesday). That is 61 weeks. In order to spend the remaining $206 million you would still have to spend another $3.4 million per week combined (or $1.7 million per week for each candidate) for every week starting this September running through election day the following fall. […]
It wasn’t until the final four weeks of the general election in 2014 that Rauner was spending $1.7 million per week, that is a healthy statewide buy. In order to spend $300 million on the Governor’s race it isn’t about spending even more money late in the cycle, that spending only has so much room to grow, the only way they can hit that target is to start spending heavily early. Another way of saying that is in order for the Governor’s race spending to reach $300 million combined both Prizker and Rauner need to spend at a level that 2014 Rauner didn’t reach until the final month of the election - for the final 61 weeks of this election cycle. That seems unlikely.
During the last quarter, Pritzker spent about $1 million per week on everything, including TV ads. He has a ways to go to get to $1.7 million per week on TV alone. But, hey, anything is possible nowadays.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 10:08 am:
I’m looking at it this way and taking the “over” because of it…
Scott Kennedy has Rauner with $99 million in spending power… today.
With Rauner knocking on the door to $100 million just in spending power and Ives maybe running and Rauner needing Walsh to run and having ads against the Dem Nominee, Walsh, and positive ads for himself, Rauner easily has another $60-70 million in spending in him.
The only way it’s an “under” is if Biss or Kennedy win the nomination, and the Kennedy part isn’t all that solid he couldn’t get there to spend big dollars.
- David - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 10:20 am:
I have seen both Pritzger and Rauner ads.
- Anonymous - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 10:26 am:
Isn’t there a point where the marginal utility of having a few extra million, doesn’t yield much more? Both sides have plenty of money to run a good campaign. The quality and creativity of their organizations will matter. Rauner doesn’t have much except his Madigan retirement plan. Sounds a bit enticing…
- Anonymous - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 10:38 am:
Just saw a excellent Rauner ad, and Prizker has been running ads for weeks in southern Illinois.
- Annonin' - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 10:42 am:
Who should tell GovJunk he blew it on Cochrane slobber fest with the claim he had 600K signatures for a referendum on term limits and Madigan lawyer got it tossed….the law suit was was about his REMAP scam …Different issue. Yikes and he thinks he can be reelected.
- wordslinger - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 10:46 am:
It will certainly break the Illinois record. But with only one major, expensive media market in Illinois, I doubt if it will break the California record.
Chicago is the third largest market. LA is No. 2, The Bay Area is No. 6. The Sacremento and San Diego markets are pretty big, too.
Lot more people to reach in California.
- TopHatMonocle - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 10:49 am:
I think it will hit $300 million, with about $150 million each for Rauner and Pritzker. Especially if Rauner has a primary. They’re going to find it hard to spend that much but I’m sure they’ll find a way.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 10:51 am:
===Lot more people to reach in California. ===
Yep.
- LARetired - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 11:00 am:
If only all of this money could be spent to lower our State’s deficit……
- Anonymous - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 11:12 am:
Gosh, I’d like to see them both go broke feeding their power/ego needs. Then have a ‘Putney Swope’ election moment in history.
- JohnDeereMade - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 11:24 am:
Less commercials, more debates.
- JohnDeereMade - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 11:27 am:
That’s a whole lot of Harris Pizza.
- Sue - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 11:40 am:
Since at this point the two leading contenders are both sad- why not agree to an arm wrestle and they can each contribute the 100 million plus they plan on flushing to our sorry excuse for a State
- IllinoisBoi - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 11:44 am:
You have to spend a lot of money to try to reach all the people in Illinois who avoid political advertising as much as possible. I don’t think I’m alone in resenting a politican the more I see him/her in the media.
- Dome Gnome - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 2:14 pm:
I predict we’ll beat California’s record. One billionaire candidate + another billionaire candidate + Madigan! + Citizens United = one big stack of cash.
- Sue - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 2:33 pm:
Hey Dome- did you happen to see the recent politico study documenting contributions under Citizens United going back to the start date. 10 of the top 14 donors were Democratic Affiliated donors. Good or bad- the Supreme Court hardly assisted R’s with the decision.