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*** UPDATED x1 *** Shocker poll: Biss surges to within 4 of Pritzker

Thursday, Feb 8, 2018

* Yikes…



* Sun-Times...

The poll — which has a 2.82 percent margin of error — surveyed 1,209 likely Democratic primary voters on Tuesday and Wednesday and has Pritzker ahead by just more than three percentage points. […]

Of African-American voters polled, 28.1 percent said they still supported Pritzker; 22.9 percent supported Kennedy and 20.3 percent said they’d vote for Biss. There were still 18.2 percent of American-American voters that were undecided, according to the poll.

The poll also asked specific supporters whether there’s still room to change their mind ahead of the primary. Of Pritzker supporters, 56.7 percent said they might switch their votes; nearly 41 percent of Kennedy and Biss supporters said they might also change their minds.

Voters were also asked who their second choice would be for governor. About 46 percent of Pritzker voters chose Kennedy; 21.5 percent chose Biss. Of Biss voters, 17.8 percent chose Pritzker and 66.1 percent chose Kennedy. Of Kennedy voters, 24.4 percent said their second choice was Pritzker, while 52.3 percent chose Biss.

*** UPDATE *** Man, I have had such a horrible morning. I was thinking of another firm when I posted this story. Click here and here for some unflattering background on the pollster.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

86 Comments
  1. - SSL - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:15 am:

    Ouch baby. Very ouch.


  2. - Lawrenceville Hoops - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:16 am:

    Chris Kennedy playing spoiler to prevent Professor Biss from winning the nomination would be ironical.

    JB definitely on the defensive, can the gazillionaire pay for some positive PR to spin his way?


  3. - Retired Educator - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:21 am:

    It seems the race is getting closer. I wonder who has the funds to flood the airwaves. I think we are going to see an all out media blitz by the Pritker camp. The others will have a lot of trouble keeping up.


  4. - Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:21 am:

    Activist Jedidiah Brown yesterday tried to walk into a South Side Pritzker campaign office, but was denied entry with the cops called. Even though Brown can be vocal it should be interesting how this plays out with the African American voters, more so since the office official told the police the Brown had a gun (which he did not).


  5. - don the legend - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:22 am:

    American-American voters. Now that’s a funny typo.


  6. - wordslinger - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:24 am:

    Yeah, I think those negative Biss spots from Pritzker will be debuting shortly. Probably on Channel 7, “Jeopardy” into the 4 p.m. news.

    Look at those second-choice numbers; Pritzker was way lucky that both Biss and Kennedy chose to file. I said from the get-go that a single Not-JB candidate would be formidable.


  7. - RichHatesMe - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:26 am:

    Hopefully Kennedy drops out and endorses Biss now even though Kennedy’s name is on the ballot already.
    Hopefully Kennedy does it out of spite.


  8. - Iggy - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:26 am:

    Go, go, go Daniel you know what they say
    Hang on now Daniel you’ll make it some day
    Sha la la Daniel you’re doing fine
    You and your math book ahead of your time


  9. - TopHatMonocle - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:28 am:

    JB has been omnipresent on TV, online, and in mailboxes for a while now. His numbers are starting to go down. What are the odds that undecideds haven’t heard of Pritzker? Extremely low. Barring a major setback for Biss, I think he’s actually going to pull off an upset here.


  10. - Robert the Bruce - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:32 am:

    wordslinger is on it, as usual.

    A couple months ago, people were questioning Biss’ chances because he was polling so low. But he hadn’t spent his money at that time.

    Biss spent money, and now he is close. So now Pritzker spends more money attacking him, and Biss will drop.

    This isn’t that complicated. There’s a reason politicians raise money.


  11. - anon2 - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:33 am:

    If Illinois had Instant Runoff Voting, Biss would be in great shape. IRV would apply in multi-candidate races where voters are permitted to rank the candidates 1,2,3. When no candidate wins a majority of first-place votes, then the ranked votes are counted. The last place candidate is dropped, and his voters’ second choices are added to the votes of the remaining candidates. This process continues until one person garners majority support.


  12. - OneMan - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:33 am:

    I think we are going to see an all out media blitz by the Pritker camp.

    It isn’t now, every third ad in the morning now is JB going after Biss.


  13. - Grand Avenue - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:36 am:

    I would not be surprised if Pritzker, Kennedy & Biss all finished with 30-35% of the vote.


  14. - Arsenal - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:36 am:

    For whoever wins, it’ll be good that they had to fight a genuinely competitive primary.


  15. - anon2 - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:37 am:

    Instant Runoff Voting has two distinct advantages over the status quo: 1) The party nominee has broad support, instead of just, say, 33 percent. 2) IRV provides a powerful deterrent to mudslinging, since someone who trashes his opponents is unlikely to be the second choice of many voters. IRV would restore civility to campaigns, at least in multi-candidate races.


  16. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:37 am:

    Pritzker Crew never ran “Skyhook, in reverse” and went after the Dems, swamping them with 2/3 of the cash, and 1/3 of the daily barrage against a failed sitting governor.

    Another day passed, no :60 second Ad on the back porch “blind trust -broken trust” ad… I can’t believe it’s been, now, weeks.

    Then again, you have a campaign that’s like an “informant” scared to go to the car and turn the key… they have no idea what’s coming next.

    I went after them pretty good for NOT putting the initial tape to bed.

    What I’ve learned now is… you can’t put to bed what you have any no idea could be next. Been saying you talked to the FBI, and then saying you don’t know what else might be out there… that’s on me for thinking this could and should be a past thing. It’s not. It’s waiting for another show to drop.

    All that said, they have had millions and millions to bury Biss, they had polling they wouldn’t share to peel of support of others, they controlled their own destiny to take down Biss or Kennedy at any time… but they have been purposely passive to even acknowledge a lead…

    Why???

    That ain’t Skyhook. No way is that Skyhook.

    They have a failed governor that all day, every day, thrice on Sunday to take policy and comparisons to define Pritzker and make a case as a Democrat.

    Why haven’t you?

    Trump ain’t runnin’ Ads againn’ ya, it’s Rauner.

    Get it together. Figure out what else is out there, get after Kennedy and Biss… take to Rauner 10x more than you areZ

    To Biss…

    Talk about understanding who you are and running the campaign as such.

    The building, from kitchens, to now college campuses (his tour of them) Biss and that Crew, starting with that artsy-quirky “middle class” Governor is starting to show real life in messsging and knowing where their voters are.

    Granted, they were given a pass by Pritzker for weeks and weeks, but with Pritzker’s own problems sucking the air out of the negative, even the pointed negatives towards Biss are the negatives in policy and Oppo they already know and expected.

    The real problem and structural issue for Boss is… can he vote his voters?

    Can Biss get his voters systematically to vote, because JB’s big Ace in the Hole is the apparatus he’s built to win with Labor, local organizations, and a large force dedicated to the Election Day execution. Is Biss even prepared for an election day where Pritzker could be 3, 4, 5 deep in precincts, and coordinated offices gimning up already identified voters.

    40 days out… there is no room for error, in either camp.

    Can Pritzker right his ship and look at what needs to be done and actually do it? Can Pritzker use his advantages in the ground and on the air to gimbal swamp and bury the others?

    Can Biss vote his voters? Can Biss make all this “surge” a voting surge for him at the end?

    We’ll see.


  17. - Leon Despres - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:38 am:

    wordslinger and Robert, isn’t Pritzker already on TV with most positive ads and negatives against Biss like, all the time? You’d expect to see a greater impact from those in this poll, if they were having the effect you describe.

    If I were in JB’s camp, these numbers would have me worried. His name-recognition must be at its ceiling, whereas Biss and Kennedy only have room for it to go up. They’ll keep getting hit, but it’s hard to see how Pritzker isn’t at or near his ceiling, given that the slow trickle of oppo seems to keep coming out.


  18. - Dude Abides - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:39 am:

    Blago is the gift that keeps on giving to Democrats. Obviously Rauner fears Pritzger (his money) and that’s why he is saturating the airwaves with those recorded conversations. Will the Democrats find a way to screw this up or will they rally around the nominee and take out Rauner?


  19. - Precinct Captain - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:39 am:

    The right media campaign and Kennedy would be in good shape to strike, but too bad the finance shop there has been a total disaster.


  20. - Iggy - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:39 am:

    =Biss spent money, and now he is close. So now Pritzker spends more money attacking him, and Biss will drop.=

    so 49 million dollars wasn’t enough to distance himself to supreme first place in mid Feb?


  21. - Arsenal - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:40 am:

    Wait, was this poll taken in one day?


  22. - hisgirlfriday - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:40 am:

    Looks like Pritzker should have spent some of his money funding yet another candidate to file in the race to ensure the not-JB vote does not coalesce into a plurality.


  23. - Actual Red - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:42 am:

    @Robert the bruce
    I want to see polling on name recognition before I agree with you. If you haven’t decided on Pritzker already, with how saturated every media platform is with him, what’s going to change your mind now? He’s already gone negative against Biss, and it didn’t seem to have the destructive effect on his numbers people were predicting.

    Not saying money means nothing. But Pritzker has already outspent Biss, and he’s lost ground. Doesn’t seem like it’s the only factor.


  24. - RobertMarshall4ever - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:43 am:

    The ROI for Pritzker is abysmal. Dude is spending a fortune to barely scrape by, which isn’t surprising as his wealth is just about the only reason anyone I know supports him.


  25. - Moe Berg - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:43 am:

    “Victory Research” is Rod McCulloch. Who, if anyone paid him? What is his track record in terms of accuracy? How did he model the Dem Primary electorate? How are we supposed to evaluate how seriously to take this?

    Don’t think the Sun-Times is doing their readers a service, other than demonstrating they’ll take any free content and do nothing to put it in context to help their readers make sense of it.

    This thing could be as worthless as the Public Policy Poll that’s out this morning, too. Terrible methodology. Pretty much junk.


  26. - Jake From Elwood - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:45 am:

    Fairly certain there is still another shoe to drop on Pritzker relating to the Blago tapes. Perhaps Illinois is tired of the uber-wealthy candidates. I am.


  27. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:48 am:

    Given that Rauner and Biss are both hammering Pritzker, it has to be somewhat encouraging that Pritzker still has a lead in Biss’ poll.

    If Biss keeps surging, Rauner is going to get the matchup he so desperately wants.


  28. - TaylorvilleTornado - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:50 am:

    It still gets me that out of all the Democrats in Illinois and we get Blago’s buddy, the populist Bernie copy, and a forgotten Kennedy as the main choices. Bleh.


  29. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:52 am:

    - Reaganing -

    Aw. You have no point… so a drive-by?

    You do you, I guess.


  30. - Anon312 - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:52 am:

    –IRV provides a powerful deterrent to mudslinging, since someone who trashes his opponents is unlikely to be the second choice of many voters.–

    Interesting read given that Kennedy seems he’d have won this primary poll in an Instant Runoff ballot, and he’s trashed JB from the start.


  31. - Arsenal - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:53 am:

    ==Fairly certain there is still another shoe to drop on Pritzker relating to the Blago tapes.==

    Well, Korecki reported this morning that the two tapes we’ve heard are all there is, but who knows who her sources are, or how well they know the file.


  32. - wordslinger - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:55 am:

    –“Victory Research” is Rod McCulloch. Who, if anyone paid him? –

    Maybe Rod is doing it pro-bono, as a public service.

    He’s been on the milk carton for a while. What a character.


  33. - Surgevoter - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 9:57 am:

    With all due respect, this poll is a joke. Everyone should settle down. This poll has the same accuracy as on of Trump’s tweets.


  34. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:01 am:

    ===Well, Korecki reported this morning that the two tapes we’ve heard are all there is===

    She reported there were two recordings. But we may have not yet heard everything on those recordings.


  35. - Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:02 am:

    Is this just a poll of Voters or voters who voted in the last three Democratic primaries? That makes a big difference.


  36. - Dr. M - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:03 am:

    I was an early Pritzker supporter. I liked that he surrounded himself with smart people and never minded that he was a billionaire. He seemed the most electable to me in a race where my worst fear is another four years of Rauner demolishing higher ed. Now, Pritzker increasingly seems like a liability. I was poised to vote early for Pritzker this weekend. Now, I am waiting to see how this plays out, but inclined to vote Biss.

    Kennedy should drop out.


  37. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:03 am:

    - Reaganing -

    Meh. That’s not a criticism, that’s a movie quote.

    Good try.

    To the Rauner - Trump numbers…

    Being upside down is one thing, to be polling worse than Trump, in a state where Trump lost by 16 points… Rauner has issues that even Ives can’t fully help.

    If Ives can burn down the support “conservatives” voters Rauner is counting on in November to make a binary choice of “Madigan” and they even stay home… these numbers are terrifying for any sitting governor of any party… let alone a phony Republican in a blue state where Trunp polls better, albeit still under water, then the worst Republican governor in America.


  38. - A guy - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:04 am:

    I’ve said it for a while now. They let Biss hang around too long. While not everyone watches these debates and appearances where they all appear together, maybe enough people do.

    Biss has a path and a couple baskets to reach into now. Disaffected AA voters who were leaning JB, and Kennedy voters who just can’t stand JB.

    Hey kids, we’ve got ourselves a race. Maybe even on both sides now.


  39. - Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:07 am:

    Oh no, not Rod McCulloch. I am a Biss guy but I would trust Rod McCulloch as far as I could throw JB.


  40. - VanillaMan - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:07 am:

    I didn’t need a poll and I’m not shocked.

    JB just isn’t connecting to voters who judge a candidate beyond their purse. He isn’t interesting. He isn’t physically anything beyond a big rich blob that could be good old George Wendt from the Cheers bar. He doesn’t say anything interesting. JB isn’t even a name.

    He appears to be a stereotype of an insider politician from Chicago. He sounds like Daley and looks like his rich cousin.

    He’s still ahead, but as I posted this week, JB hasn’t told me anything that makes me want to vote for him. Happily, this election is about Governor Rauner, so JB can win.

    But I’m not seeing a reason to support him. Those endorsements aren’t moving me.


  41. - Arsenal - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:09 am:

    ==But we may have not yet heard everything on those recordings.==

    True that, and it’s even assuming she’s right about there only being 2 tapes.


  42. - Leonard Washginton - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:09 am:

    What the hell is skyhook?

    Using a sport’s reference in politics is one of the strangest developments over the past few decades.


  43. - Grand Avenue - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:10 am:

    I wonder who paid for the poll.


  44. - Arsenal - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:10 am:

    To the update:

    I’m not all that concerned about the pollster’s track record so much as I am the fact that this appears to be a one-day poll.


  45. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:12 am:

    ===Just because it is a movie quote doesn’t mean that wall of text about skyhook made no sense.===

    Either add to the discussion or don’t. If your line discussion in this is me, you’re not adding.

    I fed ya. Good luck.

    McCullough? Ugh.

    I stand by my thoughts, as they’ve been the same even before this poll.

    Both Biss and Pritzker have the same issues and challenges, this poll doesn’t change that.

    At least we know McCollough is around. That’s nice.


  46. - Jack Kemp - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:13 am:

    “Leonard Washginton - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:09 am:

    What the hell is skyhook?”

    Skyhook is the center square of the 2018 Edition of the Oswego Willy Bingo Card.


  47. - VanillaMan - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:16 am:

    I’ll be happy if Biss wins because it will show everyone that the Democrats aren’t for sale and that they still believe in something besides cash.

    I don’t agree with his politics, but I know he can objectively measure, set goals and he knows the players.

    Democrats need to return to being a political party for non-billionaires again.


  48. - VanillaMan - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:20 am:

    Skyhook?
    Beats me.
    OW says that all the time like it has some kind of universal meaning.

    I’ve wasted my time trying to figure it out, and never did.

    OW lives in a very special place inside Evelyn Sanguinetti’s head - kind of like an alien pod.


  49. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:21 am:

    - Leonard Washginton -

    If you’re “new” here, get your Bingo Card from - Jack Kemp-. It’s the most he’s added to comments in a very long time

    The tapes are concerning as the Trib apparently are concerned with Pritzker’s voice on tape that hasn’t been released and no one else’s or even if others are on tape, since the tapes were never to be released.


  50. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:23 am:

    - VanillaMan -

    You know I’ve explained it, even directly to you…

    I can’t help you can’t understand it. LOL


  51. - Strawberry - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:23 am:

    Biss hasn’t spent a penny in the Downstate tv markets, which were very good to Bernie Sanders, particularly college counties and is already surging. JB has hit his ceiling already around 40% which he won’t be able to maintain, while Biss still has a lot of growth left once he starts communicating downstate and consolidating the Bernie vote. Kennedy is the real X factor here but I think he takes more from JB then Biss. We might end up with 3 candidates around 30%. Should be an exciting race to watch down the stretch.


  52. - Arsenal - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:28 am:

    The only thing more boring than the periodic pile-on of OW is me commenting on how boring the periodic pile-on of OW is.


  53. - Huh? - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:28 am:

    Not sure I can vote for a mathematician who can’t add.


  54. - Anon1888 - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:30 am:

    I’m not sure if this poll is accurate but it makes me feel better that JB isn’t doing as well as everyone thinks he should be doing.

    Kennedy had a real shot and blew it. His “Chris Kennedy is running for governor” video was inspiring and really seemed to resonate with me and everyone I knew. The Kennedy in that video hasn’t seemed to show up at all in the past year.

    I don’t follow Biss closely enough to know what his past sins are, but after watching the debates he’s my number one pick right now.


  55. - VanillaMan - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:30 am:

    ==”Not sure I can vote for a mathematician who can’t add”==

    You’d support a governor who can’t govern?


  56. - Robert the Bruce - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:31 am:

    Leon Despres and Actual Red,

    I believe Pritzker’s negative ads vs. Biss are a fairly recent phenomenon, not enough to move the polling yet. I could be wrong, however; I don’t watch as much TV as I used to.


  57. - Reaganing - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:32 am:

    I like see the comments questioning the validity of the poll when people don’t like the results of it.

    - With all due respect, this poll is a joke. -

    Based on what exactly?

    #BISSPLEASE


  58. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:34 am:

    ===I like see the comments questioning the validity of the poll when people don’t like the results of it.

    - With all due respect, this poll is a joke. -

    Based on what exactly?===

    Rod McCollough.

    Keep up, please. If you can’t…


  59. - Demoralized - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:34 am:

    I think a few of you need a nap with your OW trolling. Get over it.

    To the post -

    Biss is benefiting from the Rauner attacks on JB. All that attack work and it’s completely free to Biss. It’s up to Biss to get a strong campaign going if he wants to stay this close.


  60. - Arsenal - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:35 am:

    ==Based on what exactly?==

    The fact that it’s a one day poll from a pollster with a pretty bad track record.


  61. - Robert the Bruce - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:36 am:

    Good analysis by OW at 9:37 AM.

    cynical suggestion: Pritzker campaign should hire someone to dress up like a giant Pac-Man (Super Pac Man) and follow Biss around on the college tour. Free anti-Biss media.


  62. - Honeybear - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:38 am:

    I still don’t see how Biss can survive
    150+million Rauner money
    vertical integration of media
    lack of ground forces-(Biss lacks Labor)
    (I know OW, I know, but getting labor mobilized is hard enough with the candidate you endorsed, although AFSCME did not endorse, still the same problem. Yes, I know, you can’t help us, if we don’t see it. Love of God I’m trying to get butts moving.)
    and most importantly
    The anti-money message.
    Biss’s only angle is anti-wealth.
    Sorry, but in the age of
    Citizens United
    Wealthy donors are life blood.
    Sure I don’t want it that way….but
    it’s the
    “world as it is”
    as Alinsky said.
    Paul Green, “Politics is about who pays”
    Wealthy folk ain’t payin for Biss.
    You’ve seen what skeevy polls
    and ill begotten 10yr old tapes
    in the hands of Rauners
    vertical integration of media
    can do in just
    3 days.
    Biss will be slaughtered
    Labor will be lost
    Dems will be lost in two cycles.
    All because of
    progressives need to
    have purity
    and revenge for
    Bernie.
    Teach the wealthy Dems a lesson.
    My God Progressives
    look at what that error
    did to labor.
    Purity and Revenge
    will not bring progress.
    It will bring the antithesis of it.
    Regression


  63. - Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:41 am:

    Pension theft Lying Biss will loss the State Employees and Family vote big time

    Biss will not win


  64. - Robert the Bruce - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:42 am:

    Honeybear,

    I enjoy your analysis here always, but I respectfully disagree - I think Labor will be motivated to vote Rauner out of office, regardless of who wins the primary.


  65. - Grand Avenue - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:42 am:

    This poll has Pritzker 3 points lower than the We Ask America poll from last week and Biss & Kennedy each picked up 6 points, with less undecideds.

    So despite the source, it does not seem like this is an implausible result.


  66. - Demoralized - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:43 am:

    ==Biss will loss the State Employees and Family vote big time==

    If he’s the nominee running against Rauner? I don’t think so. Unless the unions want to shoot themselves in the foot again just to make a point. If they do that then they deserve everything that happens to them.


  67. - Fax Machine - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:45 am:

    Biss or Kennedy would get all the money they need from unions.

    Of course that means state rep candidates will not get any money - which hopefully means Republicans will pick up 9 seats and we can get rid of both Rauner & Madigan.


  68. - Seats - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:45 am:

    Biss is benefitting from having Rauner(Trib) do all of his heavy lifting. Without Rauner’s money to attack JB has this thing wrapped up by now. At the same time JB’s frequent attacks of Rauner help Biss out in polls where he goes head to head. What happens when if he wins and doesn’t have two people doing the work for him to maybe edge out a win.

    To those telling Kennedy to drop out? Seems wishful thinking. He isn’t the favorite but with Pritzker likely to go on a full on Biss attack during thr final month. Kennedy’s name and laying in the shadows of an ugly fight could be enough to steal the undecided votes disgusted by other candidates.

    All 3 of them have a good chance going into the final month in my opinion.


  69. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:47 am:

    ===Pension theft Lying Biss will loss the State Employees and Family vote big time

    Biss will not win===

    That thinking got you Rauner.

    “How’s that working out?”

    It’s amazing how Rauner admitting how he wants to take down labor and state employees… and still… “Rauner is better than… “

    It’s mind boggling.

    Thanks to - Arsenal - and - Demoralized -

    This place is better because of the dissent and discussions Rich allows. It’s a special place.

    (tips the cap to - Honeybear -)


  70. - Reaganing - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:49 am:

    Ok. I read the unflattering info. Don’t see how the stuff in 2008 is connected to this poll. I’ve always thought BoBiss ss is the dark horse in this race. He’s catering the voters on the left that are energized. This blog is the only place that thinks labor is more energized than the progressives.


  71. - wordslinger - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:52 am:

    –True that, and it’s even assuming she’s right about there only being 2 tapes.–

    Why would a source for tapes sealed by the courts only have two of them? There were many more.

    Like, for instance, Blago/Harris, talking about a quid pro quo Wrigley Field deal for Zell to make nice in the Trib pages.

    That didn’t happen, but Pritzker wasn’t appointed to anything, either.


  72. - TKMH - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:53 am:

    All I’m seeing in the poll above is that everyone has significant soft support and a good chunk of people are undecided, which honestly means that a ton of voters are not paying attention just yet.


  73. - Norseman - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:54 am:

    Looks like Rauner’s “dabbling” in Dem primary is helping Biss. Rauner’s calculation is that he can outspend Biss and squeak in for another term.

    JB will now be on the attack. It’s up to the Dem voters now to decide who their standard bearer will be. But that choice needs to be either Biss or JB. Kennedy is not ready for prime time. He’d do everyone a favor if he bowed out and endorsed one of the other two.

    Remember the goal is to rid Illinois of the Rauner pestilence.


  74. - Just Observing - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:58 am:

    As much as I would like to see a close, competitive race, I know, from first-hand experience, that Rod McCulloch has, at least one occasion that I know of, manipulates his polls.


  75. - OneMan - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 10:59 am:

    Rauner won a much closer race than it should have been against Quinn with Rauner having a big money advantage.

    Heck the primary 4 years ago was closer than it should have been with Rauner’s money advantage.

    Money is helpful, but it isn’t the end-all-be-all.


  76. - anon2 - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 11:05 am:

    === Kennedy seems he’d have won this primary poll in an Instant Runoff ballot, and he’s trashed JB from the start. ===

    It’s true that Kennedy is the strong second choice of both Pritzker and Biss voters, while Biss is the strong second choice of Kennedy voters. While Kennedy has been critical of Pritzker, he hasn’t had the money to do much TV, so many voters may not have heard him go off on JB.


  77. - Techie - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 11:12 am:

    This is politics and nobody is perfect. But it’s surprising to me how the one person in the race who has lots of government experience - Biss - hasn’t been considered the front-runner from the get go.

    Yes, money matters - you can’t hire staff and advertise without it. But look at 2016 - Hillary outspent Trump by a lot and still lost (admittedly through electoral college, not popular vote, but nonetheless).

    I feel like Biss has a much better chance in the general than Pritzker. Have you seen the comments on Pritzker’s ads on Facebook? So many people can’t stand another super-wealthy guy saying how he can’t wait to help out the average person. They don’t believe him. Biss has a track record of voting for tons of legislation that has or would have helped the average person. He ain’t perfect, but I think most people would have an easier time believing Biss will work for them than believing JB would.


  78. - Arsenal - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 11:18 am:

    ==Why would a source for tapes sealed by the courts only have two of them? ==

    I think Korecki meant that there’s only two tapes with JB on them, and a third where Blago talks about JB (that we’ve also heard). Doesn’t mean it’s true, but it’s what she reported…


  79. - Nacho - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 11:25 am:

    ==which hopefully means Republicans will pick up 9 seats ==

    In a Trump midterm? In Illinois? Not a chance.


  80. - RNUG - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 11:25 am:

    == Pension theft Lying Biss will loss the State Employees and Family vote big time ==

    If it comes down to Rauner versus Biss, the pension issue won’t matter. They both want to rob the state employees / retirees of their pensions.


  81. - Anon0091 - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 11:32 am:

    Rod McCullough is a joke of a pollster. Why the Sun-Times uses him is beyond me.


  82. - Chris Widger - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 11:45 am:

    If Rauner wins, he won’t be able to do very much that harms Labor. Now, if Biss wins and can build a coalition to fix the issues in Illinois, that could spell bad news for Labor.


  83. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 12:07 pm:

    ===Don’t see how the stuff in 2008 is connected to this poll.===

    The credibility of the pollster is at play. This might be too much for you to understand.

    ===I’ve always thought Biss is the dark horse in this race. He’s catering the voters on the left that are energized. This blog is the only place that thinks labor is more energized than the progressives.===

    Gotta get voters to vote.

    The Dillard surge, for example, is where motivated labor made a big difference, in Illinois, in an organized way.

    That’s why.


  84. - Huh? - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 12:42 pm:

    “You’d support a governor who can’t govern?”
    If talking about 1.4%, ABR.
    Can’t say about anybody else. Don’t know yet.


  85. - Looking at Biss now - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 2:20 pm:

    He doesn’t really do it for me either. Second place (or maybe first for the moment) only because Kennedy goofed up his campaign and Pritzker had his racist moment.


  86. - Grandson of Man - Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 7:20 pm:

    “If Rauner wins, he won’t be able to do very much that harms Labor. Now, if Biss wins and can build a coalition to fix the issues in Illinois, that could spell bad news for Labor.”

    Lol, that’s crazy. It’s the exact opposite. Rauner said he’s going to achieve his goals by pushing people out of unions.

    Right now Kennedy is probably helping Pritzker. If he wasn’t in the race, I’d bet a lot of his votes would go to Biss.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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