A new Public Policy Polling survey shows political newcomer Marie Newman in a statistical dead heat with longtime Congressman Dan Lipinski. The poll, made available first to POLITICO, showed 43 percent of those surveyed supported Lipinski and 41 percent backed Newman — the two percentage points were within the margin of error. The automated poll of 648 likely Democratic primary voters was taken Feb. 27-28. […]
The numbers reflect a huge jump in Newman’s name recognition since October, when she only logged 18 percent in a Normington Petts poll. Since then, various groups, including NARAL, Planned Parenthood and SEIU have backed Newman, and a superPAC targeting Lipinski has helped drive up her name ID and his negatives. While Lipinski has more money in his account than Newman, over the last few weeks, the Citizens for a Better Illinois political action committee spent nearly $700,000 on ads attacking Lipinski. Newman had the help of veteran Democrats U.S. Reps. Jan Schakowsky and Luis Gutierrez who publicly rejected Lipinski, calling his views opposing abortion rights and votes on immigration too conservative for his district. The AFL-CIO has backed Lipinski and he has the support from dozens of mayors and village presidents in the 3rd Congressional District.
United for Progress, Inc., has launched a new television ad, “Don’t Be Fooled,” which highlights Marie Newman’s record of fly-by-night campaign exaggerations, misstatements, poor management, and policies that will hurt Illinois workers.
“A member of Congress can’t deliver progressive change in Washington without character and experience. And Marie Newman unfortunately has neither,” said United For Progress, Inc. Treasurer Bruce Goren. “She claims to fight for workers and yet took a stand against 14,000 airline workers in her own district. She shamelessly lied about her record as a nonprofit leader and business owner. She claims to be a progressive and yet has no record of fighting for progressive change. We ran this ad because voters in the 3rd District deserve to know the truth: Marie Newman would be a disastrous choice for Congress.”
If Marie Newman has her way, subsidized foreign airlines will take away U.S. jobs. But that’s not the only thing fly-by-night with Marie Newman. She says she set up a charity for bullied children. But the IRS has no record of it. The restaurant she ran was cited for over a dozen health code violations. Her experience for public office? Dropping out of the race for Library Board. Don’t be fooled by the flimflam. Send Marie Newman and her out-of-state attack dogs packing.
so, apparently, automated polls aren’t supposed to contact cell phones (we all know they do, but supposedly inadvertently). do we think this means that cell phone only voters have been ignored?
- I live in Lipinski's District - Tuesday, Mar 6, 18 @ 9:55 am:
I am surprised about these poll results. Newman seems way overweighted on this one. Drive around Burbank, Oak Lawn, Bridgeview, Summit, Hickory Hills and Palos Hills. I just don’t see any Newman signs. Plenty of Lipinski. I’ll save this poll and compared it to the elections results. If this poll is accurate, he might win this time, but his congressional career is fading. In 2 years, Newman will be very well known.
Yeah, the female cross tab is a head scratcher. If the race is a dead heat, I’d expect her to have a double digit lead among women. Virtually every penny Newman has spent has targeted women voters. At least one piece a day from Newman in my mailbox the last two weeks addressed to the women in my household. (Just one piece from Lipinski, BTW.)
If it is this close, Jeanne Ives could spell doom for Lipinski. She’ll cost him thousands of would-be right-to-life crossover votes.
- State Sen. Clay Davis - Tuesday, Mar 6, 18 @ 10:01 am:
“Lipinski: the name you know” isn’t going to cut it anymore.
Marie dropped out of the library board race within a few weeks of filing. What was Dan’s legislative experience before he found himself on the ballot as Daniel William Lipinski? For what it is worth, this poll called landlines. Most younger folks do not have landlines and rely on cell phones. That demographic is not Lipinski’s base nor are they pro-life. I said it yesterday and I will say it again, Marie is going to win this race!
- old time golfer - Tuesday, Mar 6, 18 @ 10:06 am:
Sunday I enjoyed dinner with a well known Democratic political operative not involved with this race. She is however very familiar with it. She lives in that district and just cant see how Newman can get 50.1 to win it. She said that district is very moderate to conservative in its social beliefs. It still has many Catholic Parishes with Catholic schools both grammar and high schools who are nowhere near the far left that Newman is coming from. She mentioned La Grange, Orland Park, Lyons and Western Springs as areas that just dont play to her far left wing extremist beliefs. Just food for thought
RE the female / male split. Many women, including democratic women, who lean more centrist / conservative based on social issues are among the more conservative voters. In this District a Catholic centrist / conservative female who historically votes Democratic will be more likely to vote Lipinski vs. Newman based on campaign message alone, along with history. Just because you are a female voter does not automatically make you a progressive, pro-choice voter (or at least this being a determining voting issue, although I acknowledge among D women it is much more likely to lean on the pro-choice side), even among Democrats. I have observed this dynamic for over 25 years in our polling. Note I also live in the District. Final note: This is just an observation, comment, not intended to be a discussion about the issues at hand or me taking any side on those issues.
- Because I said so.... - Tuesday, Mar 6, 18 @ 10:18 am:
Again, signs don’t vote but I’m seeing a lot more Newman signs in the last few days.
- Albany Park Patriot - Tuesday, Mar 6, 18 @ 10:19 am:
That’s the first ad I’ve seen featuring fruit flies.
@Rich- You’re 2/2 with me this week- I completely agree- SIGNS DON’T VOTE, that’s not a factor of anything except 1 candidate has signs.
Also…where is Emilys List?! Do we have any evidence they’ve done a big ad purchase for Marie? If not…the time is now.
Bored Now: Automated (IVR) polls are legally prohibited from initiating a call to a cell phone via any automated system. A cell phone call must be initiated by a live, human interviewer who hand dials the phone number. After initial contact is made, they can hand it off to a auto poll (but that defeats the cost savings / efficiency of IVR polls). Failure to do this is a significant fine, I think about $1,500 per individual call in violation. It is the primary reason cell phone interviews are significantly more expensive to conduct and why the cost of polling has increased significantly in recent years. Many IVR (Robo) pollster use different methods to supplement their land line only IVR interviews, sometime with an Internet based survey, and sometime with live interviewer calls to cell phone. We have significant experience with this, being among the first pollster in the country to legally and actively call cell phones back in 2002 (yes 16 years ago). Many poll sample we purchase now are majority cell phone.
Re: female/male split - bear in mind the age of those polled is not provided. It seems fair to assume the age skews older when only landline users are polled. Marie Newman is the fresh and exciting candidate. I doubt that the older members of the 3rd District are her staunchest supporters.
The breakdown of those who participated in the survey are:
o 55% women, 45% men
o 16% Hispanic or Latino, 71% white, 7% African-American, 6% other
o 31% aged 18-45, 46% aged 46-65, 23% older than age 65
=== The automated poll of 648 likely Democratic primary voters was taken Feb. 27-28. […]====
I am pretty sure I was called for this poll. I remember it only asked one question and I don’t remember it asking who I was (male/female/age, etc). No big deal if I was the only registered voter but we have 5 and I wouldn’t doubt we split this race up in our household. But the poll must have made an assumption on who was on the call
Most polls will disclose the geographic breakdown and share of the sample in its region. That is not disclosed here, although its likely they have such a breakdown. Many pollters, including our firm, stratify our samples to ensure they are geographically representative of the vote share (if X area = 20% of the vote we make sure that area is 20% of the sample population). Note, it is harder to control this stratification with IVR polls than interviewer initiated polls but it can be adjusted with weighting (like most polls).
Dave Fako: that was what i recalled, but the memo says: “This poll was conducted by automated telephone interviews.”
now this district is a little north of where i lived, and i kind of assume that it has a significant cell phone only voter population. have any idea how much of a cell phone only voter universe we are talking about? i suspect that the cell phone only universe is a.) younger and b.) more inclined against lipinski. if all those assumptions are correct, the fact that it would be within the moe on a landline only poll would be interesting…
The ad is scattershot, but it’s very effective. People in that area lived through having, then not having, and then having again, the airport and the associated jobs. Any threat to that is huge there. Fake organization for “bullied kids” stings too. It’s scattershot alright, but every shot is hitting flesh. Ouch.
Touché on the voter age demographics. I live in Lipinski’s district, did you find yourself in Lyons in the run up to the 2017 municipal elections. The signage for a slate of school board candidates was everywhere. I do not recall ever seeing so many signs for a school board race. Incidentally, that slate lost. Sometimes great signage is merely symbolic of a well organized political organization, not necessarily constituent support.
My husband grew up in Western Springs and went to LT, and I have spent way more time in that district than I would wish. (My mother-in-law insisted…)
It’s true that there’s a strong Catholic presence in that district, but not all Catholics are single-issue anti-abortion voters. There also are a good number of number of centrist Democrats (who are overwhelmingly pro-choice).
It’s a sad day when someone is potentially voted out of office because his religious view is that abortion is murder and people think he’s crazy for thinking that.
- old time golfer - Tuesday, Mar 6, 18 @ 11:19 am:
-Soccermom- your correct there are a number of centrists democrats who are pro choice. But trust me as a born and raised Catholic we are far more Pro life then pro choice. And taking it even further her support for late term abortion even makes her more toxic in the Catholic Community. Lipinski is running scared your correct but I think he survives 53-47 JMO
Yes, it is accurate that not all Catholics are single issue anti-abortion / pro-life voters, and in fact a majority lean to some iteration of a pro-choice stance. However, the point of the questions about why the female vote is as is in this poll is at least partially explained by an inherent conservative lean of many (not all) of the democratic female catholic voters in this district. Our firm actually did a major study among Catholics on this and other issues: http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/January-2015/Catholics-at-a-Crossroads/
*Note - I am not commenting on the quality or accuracy of this poll, I simply do not know enough about how it was conducted to assess it.
This District also appears to have some significant activity for Ives on the other side of the aisle, which is not surprising given teh dynamics and demographics within it.
I just don’t see CD 3 being left-wing enough for Newman to win. You’ve got Orland, Palos, Homer, Lockport, Lemont, Lyons, Garfield Ridge, Beverly, Mt. Greenwood… These areas are not like Evanston, Skokie, Oak Park, Lincoln Park.
“I just don’t see CD 3 being left-wing enough for Newman to win. You’ve got Orland, Palos, Homer, Lockport, Lemont, Lyons, Garfield Ridge, Beverly, Mt. Greenwood…”
Democratic primary voter in this district will lean noticeably more progressive (left) than the voting population as a whole.
However, even among these voters in this District they are far more naturally centrist, pragmatic and less ideologically driven. *I happen to live in Lemont (a conservative GOP area), but I see these type of voters every day.
Snowman. Bernie won the district against Hillary in the 2016 primary. Are you suggesting that Newman is left of an avowed socialist?
- Original Rambler - Tuesday, Mar 6, 18 @ 11:50 am:
Our parish pastor manages to turn every homily into a pro life harangue. It is driving the pro choice women in our household - and the parish IMO - away from the church. I believe the silent majority of women in our parish are pro choice though there are some I know who are pro life and single issue voters. Lumping Catholic women as all pro life is highly misguided.
Anon- this isn’t ‘because of his religious views’ - it is about whether Lipinski still represents the people of his district. Not saying that his views on repro rights aren’t a factor, but they are just ONE of many reasons he needs to go- like health care & LGBTQ issues. Heck, I think Bernie won the primary in ‘16- how many issues do you think he and Lipinksi have in common? Name recognition is biggest obstacle & she’s getting it done.
Just for a mental exercise –if for a moment you take away the single issue voters on either side of the abortion debate, does Newman bring anything else to the table for 3rd congressional district voters to risk unseating a long time congressman?
I live in the district and I’ve waited since the beginning for a candidate to come along and unseat the longtime congressman. I’ve voted against him as many times as I can and now maybe there will be others to vote along with me! I couldn’t bet past how he was foisted on us by his father and his general creepy conservative demeanor.
I have voted in every primary and general election since I was old enough.
- State Sen. Clay Davis - Tuesday, Mar 6, 18 @ 12:29 pm:
Sure, a representative in the Illinois delegation that isn’t embarrassing. One that doesn’t hang out with the Republican leadership and vote against things like the Affordable Care Act and LGBT equality. Not endorsing Obama in 2012 should have shut the door on this joker. It’s time.
@Responsa Lipinski voted against the ACA and the original DREAM Act. For many of us 3Ders, that alone is enough for us to vote for an untested and inexperienced candidate. The old timers and pro-lifers love Lipinski. They are no longer the majority of democrats in 3D. The only question is whether the machine, that is under siege, can turn out the votes.
I’m not in his district, but I sure hope Lipinski wins. I respect him for going against his party and adhering to the Catholic teaching to respect life despite the fact that that’s not a belief held by the majority in his party. I applaud him for not caving in to the pressures of his party.
===ZC - As someone earlier noted, a lot of the pro-life single issue voters in the 3d could pull a GOP ballot because of HB40.===
Most of the suburban district isn’t 50/50 to begin with. The city wards still have a lot of regulars who pull a Dem ballot in the primary but switch over in the general. Or just stay home. They don’t want to be noted as not voting Dem. Just look at the 19th ward. There will be 95% Dem ballots pulled in the primary but in the general the GOP will get 35-40% at least at the tip of the ticket. I think most voters who are single issue pro-life already pull the GOP ballot or stay home.
The crazy Lipinski spinning here is amazing. The guy can’t crack 50 percent polling two weeks from the primary during his 7th term in office as part of dynasty holding the seat for almost forty years and yet somehow he’s supposed to have the support of the masses because of some corrugated plastic?
Consider this: there are a lot of pro-life voters in the 3rd CD. And many of those are swing voters, meaning they might be inclined to pull a Dem OR Republican ballot. If they are indeed “single issue voters” they might be inclined to pull an R ballot to support Ives in light of Rauner’s action on HB 40.
For what it’s worth, Dan Lipinski might be a hit with the over-55 crowd. But I don’t see him connecting with the “youts” of today, especially the Bernie Sanders “youts”. Prediction: Lipinski loses a squeaker.