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Is a hard rain gonna fall?

Wednesday, Mar 14, 2018

* I shared this graphic (minus the extraneous editorial comments) with subscribers yesterday…



Discuss.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

67 Comments
  1. - You could say that, I couldn't - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:27 am:

    I think depressed Republican turnout is primarily driven by national events, specifically Trump. Rauner doesn’t help, though.


  2. - SOIL M - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:29 am:

    Yes 3 years of Rauner has hurt this much. It has nothing to do with Trump, its all on Raunerr.


  3. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:33 am:

    Independents pulling D ballots because they don’t like any of the R choices at the top?


  4. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:33 am:

    As a Republican I’m not at all motivated by Rauner-Ives or Harold.

    Trump has “depressed” me, and I see hatred and bigotry on a national stage being used to “frame” the GOP by those claiming to BE the GOP.

    I can’t vote for Ives, I won’t vote for Rauner…

    It’s important to me to vote, I will vote, but motivated TO actually vote, nope, I’m not motivated.


  5. - Perrid - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:33 am:

    Why not both (Trump and Rauner)? Or, it could be that most people don’t think Ives stands a chance and so don’t care about the primary. Not saying that way of thinking is correct, she’s (sadly) doing better than I thought she would, but it one possible contributor.


  6. - Keyrock - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:34 am:

    “I saw guns and sharp swords in the hands of young children.
    Where hunger is ugly, where souls are forgotten.”


  7. - Thomas Paine - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:34 am:

    I am never slow to criticize Rauner.

    But Lance Trover and I agree on this one.

    You have a hotly contested Dem primary for governor and a ho-hum GOP primary for governor.

    Campaigns drive early voting, and Biss and Pritzker both have extraordinarily good early-voting operations going.

    Kennedy and Rauner, notsomuch.

    I am betting on Kennedy to finish third.


  8. - We'll See - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:35 am:

    I love me some Icarus paradox


  9. - anonymous - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:36 am:

    == As a Republican I’m not at all motivated by Rauner-Ives or Harold. ==
    Me neither. Ives and the other fake conservatives who backed Rauner in ‘14 are as much to blame.


  10. - BlackHawk Boone - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:36 am:

    GOP has 7 and a half months to fix that problem.

    Turnout in IL is going to have to be boosted by the anti-Madigan sentiment. Expecting a bloodbath or negative ads this summer and fall.


  11. - BlackHawk Boone - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:36 am:

    Of*


  12. - Flat Bed Ford - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:37 am:

    If Skillicon, Ives, Morrison, Batinick and Breen are the new face of the Republican party Madigan will enjoy another 10 years as Speaker and the Republican party will be all but extinct in Illinois. None could or will win on the statewide stage in a general election.


  13. - Blogman - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:37 am:

    But this is the Primary? Isn’t that significant. It does not mean they won’t be there in November.


  14. - Cubs in '16 - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:38 am:

    ===Independents pulling D ballots because they don’t like any of the R choices at the top?===

    This is the category I fall into. I mean, the choices on the D side aren’t exactly motivating but those on the R side are downright depressing.


  15. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:40 am:

    Last night in Pennsylvania was a big swing in votes, from Trump +20 to a Democrat “apparently” winning the district (provisional and military ballots have yet to be counted).

    No wonder why Rauner is going so negative, I guess. He’s trying to drag Pritzker in the mud with him. Rauner is using violent imagery—blowing Pritzker up and hanging Madigan around his opponemts’ necks. The key to me is to lay out a positive vision. I think Pritzker is doing a great job at that—and the ground game, of course.


  16. - Jockey - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:41 am:

    IMO, I’m working for an incumbent that is involved in a tight race. I’ve been knocking on doors with early voting applications. The members of the 65+ club, as I’ve experienced , seem to want to go out and vote on Election Day. Thus, it may be something to consider for these turnouts.


  17. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:43 am:

    ===Turnout in IL is going to have to be boosted by the anti-Madigan sentiment. Expecting a bloodbath or negative ads this summer and fall.===

    Yeah. Rauner is still under water, 20+ points, and trailing Pritzker, for example, who is also under water, with Pritzker at 50% and leading by double-digits.

    This premise that going 100% “anti-Madigan” and ignoring Rauner is severely under water, losing to an example matchup that is already underwater and losing by double-digits…

    Who is Rauner’s constituency to get out from losing to another candidate already under water… and losing by double-digits.

    Rauner is a failed Governor.

    Madigan isn’t helping Rauner’s approval numbers, or beating another candidate already under water.

    But, by all means, run against Madigan, with no accomplishments, with Trump and a blue wave seen again last night in Pennsylvania… that’ll work.


  18. - People Over Parties - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:45 am:

    Partisan speculation aside, this could be somewhat expected. A contested Democratic primary will likely increase voter turnout (when compared to Dem ‘14), whereas an incumbent getting renominated will not likely receive the same enthusiasm (compared to contested GOP ‘14). When asking a GOP friend of mine (Trump/Rauner supporter, Naperville) if he voted in the primary, he didn’t see the point as he assumed Rauner was going to win. Similar mentality statewide? Dunno.


  19. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:46 am:

    –Turnout in IL is going to have to be boosted by the anti-Madigan sentiment. Expecting a bloodbath or negative ads this summer and fall.–

    Those negative ads have been steady for years and Madigan’s negative rating is at 68% today.

    Yet there are the voting numbers above.

    Perhaps the Because Madigan strategy has maxed out. One-trick ponies cease to thrill over time.


  20. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:49 am:

    What is a “Democrat ballot?”

    And what does the reference to out migration mean? Does Skillcorn think only Republicans left the state?


  21. - Hamlet's Ghost - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:50 am:

    If Bruce Rauner wins the primary by spending millions of dollars persuading the casual GOP voter that Jeanne Ives is a Madigan puppet, why would the knowledgeable GOP voter have any love left for Rauner after the primary?


  22. - Anon - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:52 am:

    People who voted for Rauner in 2014 did so knowing that the GA was dem controlled. They knew that, for anything to be accomplished, Rauner would need to display real leadership. Not only did Rauner fail to lead, but he has been finger pointing since day one. He’s also on the same level as Trump when it comes to telling flat out lies. Think I’m being hyperbolic? How about the continued lie that hi grandparents were born outside the US? Thats just one lie, perhaps not as significant as his lie to Cardinal Cupich about his promise to veto the abortion bill. Let that one sink in. Rauner has failed to lead.


  23. - the old man - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:53 am:

    If all the Dems that Rauner gave boards and commissions appointments to vote Republican, the GOP should have a better than 2014 turnout. Party chairmen tried telling the Rauner people that you cannot get in bed with the Dems but Z and crew are oh so smart.


  24. - From the 'Dale to HP - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:57 am:

    It’s really hard to say in a primary where there isn’t much competition. Ives v Rauner never really developed (imo) and the rest of the statewide races are either unopposed or an AG race that hasn’t picked up any steam other than Harold’s comments years ago. There aren’t any open Congressional seats (and the only Dem that might even be a little vulnerable, Bustos, is probably safe in what is looking like a very good Dem year) so what race are people going to turn out for? So no competitive big races and a fairly unpopular governor within his party and here we are.

    I also would assume that a number of independents who might have picked up a GOP ballot four years ago, are reaching for a Dem ballot this year.


  25. - Anon221 - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:57 am:

    “Has 3 years of Bruce Rauner hurt the party this much?”

    Yes. Rauner literally bought the ILGOP when he got elected-

    2014 Illinois Review- https://tinyurl.com/y9wsek3d

    2016 Trib- https://tinyurl.com/yc5rc5wq

    But lately, his contributions (run your own analysis- https://www.elections.il.gov/CampaignDisclosure/ContributionsSearchByAllContributions.aspx) have been vastly tilted to getting him re-elected.

    He’s had some lip service to support Erika Harold and spoken at R events tellin’ stories about little old ladies and frogs, but otherwise he’s mainly focused on Madiganmania, and leaving the ILGOP to fend for themselves. He created his own “branch” of the ILGOP, and just like the Tea Partiers, Raunerism is more important and a more worthwhile investment in dollars and rebranding to him than being a Republican. And, remember, the ILGOP revolt started with the overrides of his budget and education vetoes.


  26. - People Over Parties - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:58 am:

    I recently asked a GOP friend of mine (Trump/Rauner supporter, Naperville) if he voted in the primary. He said he didn’t see the point as he assumed Rauner was going to win. Similar mentality statewide?


  27. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 10:01 am:

    - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 9:43 am:

    There is no blue wave

    The Democratic candidate ran as a conservative Catholic pro-life and pro-gun

    There will be no blue wave in the fall

    I am an Independent and I would have voted for the Democrat. I voted for Quinn in 2014 and Trump in 2016 because I did not like Clinton. If there is a good Democratic Candidate in 2020, I will vote for them.

    I always vote for or against the person.

    The Republican in Pennsylvania 18 was for “right to work”, he lost the Union vote.


  28. - hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 10:08 am:

    As I stated in comments yesterday, one snapshot of this effect is evident in uber-Republican McLean County. Dems are pulling over 50 percent of ballots in McLean County early/absentee voting when their 2014 primary showing had something like 20 percent or less ballots in the primary being Dem ballots. This is also with Dems only bothering to slate one single countywide Dem officeholder candidate. So bizarre.


  29. - Nieva - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 10:10 am:

    Lots of people will be crossing over to vote in the Democrat primary in smaller counties. Come this fall those votes will return to the party, hold their nose and vote for Bruce.Several of the counties he won in Southern Illinois have hot races for Sheriff and state reps.


  30. - Thoughts Matter - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 10:10 am:

    I refuse to vote for Rauner or Ives, just as I didn’t vote for Trump. I don’t care about Erika at all. There’s no primary contest in any other race. Plus, I need to make my displeasure at the GOP candidates ( state and national) known. Hence a D ballot. I’m not a Tea party advocate, not a religious super right, not a conservative, and not a Trump supporter. There’s no longer a reason for me to vote GOP. Sort of in limbo now.


  31. - Hoping for Rational Thought - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 10:14 am:

    I dislike voting in primaries anyway. I will pull a GOP ballot this year but only to vote for Norine Hammond in her primary battle. I’m not motivated for voting for either Ives or Rauner. If I was somehow forced to chose one I’d vote Ives as a protest but would NEVER vote for her (or again Rauner) in the general.

    I only voted for Rauner last time because of my disgust for Quinn. It looks like another Governor election where I vote for a candidate more so because I dislike the opponent more.


  32. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 10:16 am:

    - Anon221 -

    Please, shorter urls. Please. Thanks.

    ===There is no blue wave

    The Democratic candidate ran as a conservative Catholic pro-life and pro-gun

    There will be no blue wave in the fall===

    LOL, yeah, ok, no blue wave.

    Since 2017, on average, 13-20 point surge in Democratic swing in districts where a swing actually has changed multiple seats.

    Here’s the phony.

    (Sigh)

    “He ran as a Republican”

    Really? Labor? Medicare? Obamacare?

    It’s downright lazy to ignore the micro and macro in these races since 2017. It’s embarrassing to say “he ran as a Republican” when core Democratic ideals in Labor and healthcare also were front and center.

    Oh, when you run candidates that mirror a district and embrace the party they belong, with local nuances, it’s not running “Dem as a Repub” or visa-versa, it’s called really good candidate recruitment.


  33. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 10:18 am:

    Thoughts Matter - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 10:10 am:

    I feel that way about the Democratics but I will vote for the Democratic candidate for Governor because Rauner is worse.


  34. - Texas Red - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 10:20 am:

    Since I passed 50, I am mindful of my limited time on this planet. I had a yellow dog D friend who crossed over just once to vote for an acquaintance in a primary, I mean this guy voted straight D going back to Truman. He died shortly thereafter and his family was ashamed that he died as registered Republican. Hence I continue to pull the R.


  35. - ZC - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 10:22 am:

    Umm, of course it has to do with Trump. Nobody fool themselves. It’s a nationwide trend.

    Mind you it would have happened to some extent no matter what - “energized out-party” / “devitalized in-party” seems to be one of the laws of election midterms.


  36. - just sayin' - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 10:25 am:

    The top Republican in America is also the most popular Republican, yes that’s President Trump. That’s where all the energy is and he’s an R who is actually getting positive things done for the country. But lazy Rs in Illinois run away and make the unfavorable polls a self-fulfilling prophesy. Instead of latching on for the ride and working to educate, they stay bogged down in tedious Springfield feuds that are a boring waste of time for people with real jobs. So dumb. Some November house cleaning would be the best result for the Illinois GOP. The players on the field now are never going to get the job done.


  37. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 10:28 am:

    ==The Democratic candidate ran as a conservative Catholic pro-life and pro-gun==

    This is false. He’s pro-choice, pro-background checks, against Obamacare repeal, against Trump’s tax scam. But it’s hilarious, after the last six weeks of the Republican talking point being “Lamb is Pelosi’s puppet!” to see folks break their ankles to call him a Republican now.

    Name an amount of money. I’ll double it and bet you that that the Republican Party won’t be endorsing him when he runs his next election.


  38. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 10:30 am:

    –There is no blue wave–

    ==“I think most Republicans realize we’re running into a very serious, a hurricane-force wind,” (Rep. Charlie Dent, R-PA) he explained. “It’s coming and we have to be ready for it.”

    “If you’re a Republican member in a pretty safe seat like this one was, that’s where I’d be nervous,” the congressman said. “That is really what’s going to be the big issue. The marginal swing districts, they know they’re in for a fight.”

    According to Dent, the Pennsylvania election was more about “the national environment” than local issues or the candidates’ personalities.==

    Same as it ever was, in off-year elections.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/03/chaos-anarchy-pa-republican-rep-lambastes-deplorable-trump-firing-tillerson-hours-election/


  39. - DarkHorse - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 10:31 am:

    A focus group of one: I’m a typical “swing” voter; think Ives is too far right; but will probably vote for Harold over Raoul or Quinn. But I could never vote for Rauner - not because of his record - but because of his deceitful TV campaign against Ives. I’ll bet I’m not alone in this.


  40. - A guy - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 10:33 am:

    It’s not at all unusual for a huge letdown in numbers after a huge turnout. It’s really pretty normal.
    Now that our primary is back in Mid March, a lot of snow birds are back before the election and their need to vote by mail isn’t the same. Also, in the last cycle, tons of college kids got early vote ballots, either on their own (especially for Bernie) OR their parents requested them.
    There’s just half as much passion this time around compared to last time, and early voting and election day voting will reflect that.


  41. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 10:37 am:

    Guy, none of your rationalizing explains the difference between the D and R votes.


  42. - Anon221 - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 10:43 am:

    OW- My only non-tiny was only 90 characters. Word’s was 217. I’ll humbly try to do better:)


  43. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 10:45 am:

    - Anon221-

    Yours I saw first, and hadn’t seen any others at that time.

    No worries. I said “please”, lol

    :)


  44. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 11:07 am:

    The state’s chief executive is an incompetent whiner, constantly blaming and refusing to take responsibility for his governance. What’s there to be excited about—if Republican voters value personal responsibility? Don’t Republicans value a take-charge person who holds herself/himself accountable?


  45. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 11:13 am:

    - Arsenal - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 10:28 am:

    It is not false


  46. - A guy - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 11:26 am:

    ==Guy, none of your rationalizing explains the difference between the D and R votes.==

    Trump v. Kacich was the GOP’s last best stand in ‘14. That pushed a lot of GOP voters, for and against Trump.

    I’m a very frustrated Precinct Captain in the sense that our primary voters tend to trend a bit older, and they strongly prefer to vote on Election Day. We offer rides to Early Voting, and while a few take advantage, many more have a mental approach to it being more exciting and ’safer’ to vote on Election Day. That’s the best I can do for you Sling. My party stinks at Early Voting.


  47. - Derek Beigh - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 11:29 am:

    -hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 10:08 am-

    “As I stated in comments yesterday, one snapshot of this effect is evident in uber-Republican McLean County. Dems are pulling over 50 percent of ballots in McLean County early/absentee voting when their 2014 primary showing had something like 20 percent or less ballots in the primary being Dem ballots. This is also with Dems only bothering to slate one single countywide Dem officeholder candidate. So bizarre.”

    Hey, a chance to promote my work! Here’s a link to the story in question: https://tinyurl.com/y96naoey


  48. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 11:31 am:

    ==It is not false==

    Yeah, it is. Here’s an article about his position on abortion, complete with Democrats for Life fretting:

    http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article204751989.html

    Here’s him talking about universal background checks:

    https://twitter.com/conorlambpa/status/970091260232028160?lang=en


  49. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 11:34 am:

    The reason for the difference is Rauner. There really aren’t many Republican interested in renominating a nationally recognized gubernatorial failure.


  50. - Rutro - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 12:12 pm:

    The weather (& forecast) are another reason for groups to stay home.


  51. - Ron - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 12:15 pm:

    “The Democratic candidate ran as a conservative Catholic pro-life and pro-gun”

    Keep telling yourself that. Lamb ran as a pro-choice democrat. He clearly said he has no desire to make abortion illegal. Lamb’s opponent was Trump incarnate. Trump before Trump he called himself. The blue wave is coming and it will be big.


  52. - Ron - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 12:19 pm:

    The democrats didn’t even have candidates the last two congressional cycles. That was a massive upset in PA. Donnie is a one termer.


  53. - Stoph - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 12:30 pm:

    68% disapproval rating, def Rauners fault. Plus I think he is in trouble with this budget. The Dems and Reps are going to vote, but the Independent voters will tilt the scale. If the true leader of the state Madigan (according to Bruce) over loads the budget with Dem pork can Rauner really put up that much of a fight? Could you imagine if we went into Nov without a budget again. It would def be a blue wave people tired of talk and no results.


  54. - Not a Billionaire - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 12:36 pm:

    IL 6 12 13 14 and 16 lean more dem than PA 18.I wonder how many seats in the GA do.


  55. - Ron - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 12:43 pm:

    Over 100 US Congressional districts currently have Republicans and lean more Dem than the PA 18 district. BYE, BYE Ryan.


  56. - James Knell - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 1:00 pm:

    Tramp the dirt down.


  57. - A guy - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 1:09 pm:

    ==IL 6 12 13 14 and 16 lean more dem than PA 18===

    Try your best to remember that “special elections” are weird animals. No sharing the spotlight or the money.

    A lot different when you’re competing in 435 elections on the same day.


  58. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 1:11 pm:

    ===“special elections” are weird animals===

    They’re also open seat races. It’s often easier to win one of those.


  59. - BlueDogDem - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 1:17 pm:

    Looks like we might have awoken a sleeping giant…the blue dogs are a coming folks.


  60. - paddyrollingstone - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 1:26 pm:

    James Knell - good call on that song.


  61. - Skirmisher - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 1:38 pm:

    Republicans not engaged? That description certainly fits me. See Oswego Willie’s 9:33 AM post, because he said exactly what I feel. I add to that an absolute disgust with a Republican Congress that behaves more like a Hoosier legislature, and continues to enable the twin horrors that are President Trump and permanent foreign wars. I am for the first time pulling a Democrat ballot, and I will vote for candidates who seem least likely to cause irrepairable harm to Illinois and the nation, and are furthest removed from the Chicago Democrat establishment.


  62. - Mama - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 1:51 pm:

    People who do not vote have no right to complain.


  63. - Papa - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 2:54 pm:

    A huge blue wave is coming. Maybe not as big as the Tea Party wave of 2010 but a larger enough wave for the Dems to take back the House by 5-10 votes.

    Looks like turnout in the Illinois Democratic Primary will be above average as well.


  64. - A guy - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 2:59 pm:

    Papa don’t preach…because you’re not good at it.


  65. - Lester Holt’s Mustache - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 3:54 pm:

    ==Try your best to remember that “special elections” are weird animals. No sharing the spotlight or the money.

    A lot different when you’re competing in 435 elections on the same day.==

    Guy, by the republicans own admission Saccone was a lackluster candidate who didn’t work hard and relied on the national party to come in and do all the work. Every single one of their candidates is going to have to bring their A game this fall, yet several articles today quote rank and file repubs claiming the PA18 race was an anomaly, no big deal, nothing to worry about, etc etc. The NRCC can’t be everywhere at once, and it doesn’t have unlimited funds. If even a few House republicans stay as lazy and overconfident as they seem to be now, this fall is going to be very ugly.


  66. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 14, 18 @ 3:59 pm:

    –by the republicans own admission Saccone was a lackluster candidate who didn’t work hard and relied on the national party to come in and do all the work…–

    I read that as whistling past the graveyard by the Trumpsters, who don’t want to believe they’re a drag.

    Plenty of GOP types have been sounding the alarm on the midterms as a national referendum on the president. Because they always have been.


  67. - Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 15, 18 @ 4:45 am:

    I would hate to be Bost


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Harold and Raoul battle it out at the Tribune
* Rauner talks about gaming and marijuana
* Rauner makes his pitch to Crain's
* "Spare me the mea culpa"
* CBS 2 fact-checks new Rauner digital ad "JBahamas Bank"
* AFSCME's latest contribution to Madigan appears to be its largest ever
* Question of the day
* Rauner claims "moderation" is how "Illinois can be saved"
* Chicago poll looks at positives, negatives of new candidates
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Paid Rauner consultant appears in new Rauner TV ad
* Thirteen months later, Pritzker still hasn't kept his promise to release his "full" tax plan
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
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