Today, the Rauner Campaign is launching a new statewide TV ad titled “Tax Hiker.”
The ad tells the story of Mike Madigan’s 32% income tax hike last year, and how his handpicked candidate for governor, JB Pritzker, is calling for yet another tax hike on every single Illinoisan. The ad then cites a Chicago Tribune editorial that says Pritzker’s plan would “punish” taxpayers, the same plan that Pritzker calls the “theme” of his campaign.
The Pritzker-Madigan agenda is clear: higher taxes, more corruption.
Mike Madigan just raised your taxes thirty-two percent over Bruce Rauner’s veto. Now JB Pritzker wants to raise your taxes again. Pritzker and Madigan want to raise taxes on every middle class Illinoisan. And increase tax rates… another twenty…six… percent. The Chicago Tribune says Pritzker’s plan will punish Illinoisans. But JB Prtizker calls it the central theme of his campaign.
JB Pritzker and Mike Madigan. Higher taxes. More corruption.
The talk about raising taxes by 32 percent or 26 percent is disingenuous and intellectually dishonest. And I’m sure it works. But trying to give people the impression that the state income tax rate is over 50 percent is absurd. The visual of a teddy bear abandoned in a puddle really takes the cake too. That kid must have really been upset about the state of affairs in Springfield.
I’m going to repeat this every time Rauner complains about the tax hike: Rauner spent every dollar of it. Heck, he was spending every dollar of the tax hike even before it happened (during the impasse). So he should thank Madigan for coming up with (most) of the money that Rauner evidently wants to spend.
Obviously knowing this truth colors my opinion of the ad, but I would give it a C at best, just because I know it is complete and utter BS.
It keeps what few Rauner has left with him. While Rauner signed a budget that verified the need of the 32% tax increase, Rauner certified the 32% tax increase was not frivolous, but a necessity for Rauner.
Rauner is still unlikable. This ad doesn’t address that.
This ad does nothing to make Rauner seem important, if anything, Rauner isn’t in charge is the theme of this ad. How can Rauner stand up to Madigan if the tax happened over the Rauner veto?
It’s a “B-“…
You’d think Pritzker would’ve already done an ad on how Rauner raised taxes 32% after destroying social services and higher education. Rauner has a lone signed budget with a 32% tax increase to make it work.
That’s why this is a “B-“… Rauner again owns the messaging.
Falls flat. Why? The Fair/Graduated/Progressive tax advocates, led by JB, will cut tax rates for 90+ percent of taxpayers.
If I were JB I’d release a few possible structures that could work and say “I’d support at least these - or others, as long as they guarantee that no one making less than $XXX thousand/year will pay more.
With sales tax in many locales at 9-10+ percent, with ever increasing already sky high real estate taxes and the 32% income tax rate, it is easy to hammer this message. R’s need to do it every day until the election.
I have to find myself wondering - Will Rauner ever run a campaign ad that does not mention Madigan and “Tax Hikes” and “corruption”?
It appears that every ad I have seen is a slightly different version of the same message. But then, when you have no positive accomplishments to tout that would warrant your reelection, I guess it is reasonable to continue using the same tired message.
–The teddy bear in the rain is a nice touch. It is an appropriate description of Illinois.–
- I Miss Bentohs - Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 9:43 am:
If I was JB I would say I am lowering taxes to 4% (which I would frame as a 25% decrease) and then for ridiculously rich people like me that earn over $1M, it is going up to 7%. I don’t care if it is a lie and that is what he is doing or not. But if he does not say something that counters these things from Rauner, then he will have trouble and may lose to the worse governor … that I think will get worse in his second term.
It’s got holes you could drive a truck through, and Rauner signing a budget that relies on the tax hike weakens the message, but for selecting facts carefully and presenting them clearly, this is a pretty good ad and may work with low information voters.
I’d give it a B on the basis that it will resonate with the 26% who approve of Governor’s performance and it builds on the only strategy that Rauner has which is to drag Pritzker’s approval down to his level. I don’t know if it’s a winning strategy but it’s clearly all that Rauner has.
This ad is also something a challenger would run, as Rauner, who is the sitting governor, couldn’t stop the tax increase, later used the tax increase, and while governor could take show the cuts necessary to keep taxes lower or give the rebuttal to the 32% tax increase he himself as governor used in his lone signed budget.
It’s like an alternate universe.
If you believe Rauner is not the incumbent, or that being grossly inept is a good reason for a Rauner second term, or worse, Rauner purposely hurting Illinois, and blaming Madigan for it is a reward in of itself… this ad is for you.
That’s why Rauner is unlikable and it won’t move numbers to make Rauner the choice of voters still undecided.
B it’s a little creepy, but it will resonate, especially with those whose property taxes were just hiked. a tax is a tax and people don’t like them even if they are needed to fund things people want. Rauner’s ads are imprinting the Madigan Pritzker pairing at every turn. the repetition will be helpful to him. and the debates will be important because Pritzker will have to make people like him to overcome the pairing and I don’t believe it will be that easy for him.
For the intended audience, it works. Raising taxes is bad. It will be spent on corrupt things. It hurts our children and their teddy bears. (I just watched Deadpool 2 so I thought it was the bear Cable carries).
I give it a solid B. It helps scare voters into voting for Rauner, which is his best hope.
The ad will resonate with people who don’t like taxes, and those that don’t want to pay additional taxes to a state government that can’t manage its finances. As long as that is the minority, the JB fans have nothing to worry about.
Anyone who thinks JB is going to lower taxes for the middle class is not thinking clearly. He knows the math doesn’t work. That’s why he won’t provide any details for his tax plan.
I still think JB wins, but he isn’t very impressive as a candidate.
Yes, Same-o same-o. However, Lake County property tax assessed valuation notices (higher of course) just arrived in mail. Amalia is right– taxes are taxes. Timing of the ad is good. JB’s evasion of disclosing any details of his tax plan concerns many voters. Grade B.
- Back to the Future This - Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:13 am:
Before Labor Day I would be expecting both
Candidates to be trying to appeal to voters outside
their “small tents”. Rauner needs suburban women and anti- Rham voters who may not like Pritzker’s female hiring practices or failure to speak out against Rham’s failure to deal with the violence problem in a lot of poorer communities in Chicago.
Instead of going after voters that might be on the fence or even in favor of Pritzker, Rauner is trying to appeal to a “no tax increases” crowd that he will get for free.
Good Ad to get out the vote in October or November, but a waste of money in August.
Yet another example of both candidates having too much money and too little focus.
“…a 4.5 percent tax on income up to $100,000;
4.95 percent on income between $100,000 and $300,000;
8 percent on income between $300,000 and $500,000;
9.25 percent on income between $500,000 and $1 million;
and 9.85 percent on income of $1 million or more.”
The next call I get to do that will be the first. No one is looking.
- I Miss Bentohs - Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:18 am:
== You’d think Pritzker would’ve already done an ad on how Rauner raised taxes 32% after destroying social services and higher education. Rauner has a lone signed budget with a 32% tax increase to make it work.
That’s why this is a “B-“… Rauner again owns the messaging. ==
This is the crux of what I was trying to say in my post … OW conveyed my disbelief of the JB team better than my effort
The ad speaks to the “higher taxes” portion of the message in its entirety. It says nothing about “more corruption.” Is the viewer suppose to know that higher taxes leads to more corruption?
If so, why hasn’t Bruce Rauner done nothing to address the corruption? Why hasn’t Rauner called for AG Madigan, the FBI, or any investigative body to look into these corrupt matters?
Why hasn’t he put on the table tougher laws to curb the corruption? I get that term limits would certainly rid the state of Madigan in the house (he could always run for something else), but what about corruption? Where’s the proof? And where is all of this in the ad besides the tag line?
Lastly, this ad only highlights Rauner’s runaway spending without a budget. He’s a kid with his parents’ credit card and Pritzker could make the counterargument that Dems will have to clean up his mess of a hopefully one term. Rauner could have argue that a large chunk of that tax increase could have been put to paying down the debt. He didn’t. He took the cash.
He doesn’t get a failing grade because of the filmography. Whoever he paid to put the ad together didnt use a shaky phone for its video shots. That’s gotta count for somethin’.
=The ad will resonate with people who don’t like taxes, and those that don’t want to pay additional taxes to a state government that can’t manage its finances.-
As OW pointed out it’s the perfect ad to run against an incumbent. The problem is that after 4 years Bruce Rauner is now “state government.” The things he’s rallying against all occurred on his watch.
Now you might argue that Rauner wasn’t responsible for all of this occurring but he was clearly incapable of preventing it. And part of the state’s responsibility in “managing its finances” is paying its bills and Rauner wasn’t able to do that either.
- Dance Band on the Titanic - Wednesday, Aug 8, 18 @ 10:23 am:
“Hi, I’m Bruce Rauner. I spent nearly two and a half years fighting to ensure that the income tax ended up being 0.05% lower than it was before I took office. And it only cost Illinois taxpayers $1 billion, decimated social services and nearly put our state colleges out of business.
It’s decent. It covers the bases and reinforces the narrative he’s pushing. It really isn’t memorable, but it’s staid, measured and consistent. It’s keeping the beat til the next one. It’s a pass, but as stated a number of times, not particularly memorable.
Sugar Corn - That progressive tax plan generates maybe $2B in new revenue. That seems like a lot, until you remember the state’s new education funding formula requires $3B in new revenue. How then does JB pay for the dozen or so other expensive promises he’s made when the new revenue has already been spent?
The elephant in the room is that neither Rauner or Pritzker are particularly likable or appealing to voters outside their immediate constituencies and their campaign staffs who are being paid to make them more likable (but don’t have a lot to work with).
They have good people doing some fine work. I’m looking forward to after Labor Day and see what they may have ready to roll out.
Back to the Post… it’s these ads that signal to me that Rauner’s Crew can’t figure out a way to make a positive incumbent pitch to marry with the ominous negative ads. It’s telling that the ad touts the veto, but glosses over the override, as that would be opening the door to an admitted failure.
My point is… Rauner is owning a failure as a successful reason to think Rauner can succeed where he’s already failed?
The sitting governor has given up on trying to sell himself, so it’s repackaging a failure as a reason to vote for that sitting governor again?
The psychology to it… fascinating insight to where they are.
Sugar Corn, the CTBA isn’t an unbiased, non partisan group, despite their claims. They have an agenda, and are selective in their use of data. You can believe everything they put out, but that doesn’t make it right.
Dance Band, technically it cost us $12 Billion, not one billion. Went from 4 and a half to 16 before the tax increase was passed. Not that republicans have ever been the party that cared about government debt, of course, but it’s noteworthy.
== the CTBA…have an agenda, and are selective in their use of data.==
Actually, their progressive tax plan is refreshingly unbiased. It clearly shows that taxing only the rich will not work and just the first step towards hiking taxes on working families. I’m surprised they showed their hand so early.
I give the ad a “Rauner A+” which relative to a normal scale is a “C-”.
For the Rauner crew this is clearly as creative as they get. They have no successes to celebrate so they have to consistently go negative, and the ads are not real honest.
Mike Madigan handpicked Pritzker? I don’t think so.
=Sugar Corn, the CTBA isn’t an unbiased, non partisan group, despite their claims. They have an agenda, and are selective in their use of data. You can believe everything they put out, but that doesn’t make it right.=
Prove it. To date, I have never seen anyone with an honest refutation of their numbers which they get from reliable sources.
—Falls flat. Why? The Fair/Graduated/Progressive tax advocates, led by JB, will cut tax rates for 90+ percent of taxpayers.–
Theres a reason he isn’t doing what you suggested….
—The talk about raising taxes by 32 percent or 26 percent is disingenuous and intellectually dishonest. And I’m sure it works. But trying to give people the impression that the state income tax rate is over 50 percent is absurd..–
This is an echo chamber spot for his base, who are already predisposed to want to believe what the spot is saying. I don’t think it gains any new voters for him. And it doesn’t really say anything positive Bruce can or would do.
BTIA: “Alright Governor. In our next series of ads we will be showing the Teddy Bear in the toilet. Get it? The Teddy Bear and the toilet, and the Teddy Bear is in the toilet.
Rauner: What’s that supposed to mean?
BTIA: Darned if we know. Does it matter? Oh, and the toilet will say “Standard Madigan” instead of “American Standard.” Still nothing?