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Question of the day

Thursday, Aug 23, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

Today, Orland Park Trustee and Republican State Treasurer candidate, Jim Dodge, challenged his opponent – incumbent Treasurer Mike Frerichs – to a series of debates.

“The voters deserve to hear where we stand on the issues of importance to Illinoisans. I challenge my opponent, Mike Frerichs, to agree to a series of at least three debates,” said Dodge.

“Our state is facing serious challenges, challenges that require leadership in Springfield that is committed to finding real solutions, not simple political posturing,” continued Dodge. “The job of Treasurer, especially given the fiscal crisis we face, is a critical one. I would hope that my opponent would be willing to stand before the voters, exchange ideas, debate policy and lay out his vision for the future.”

“I urge my opponent and his campaign to work with my campaign to put together a series of debates across this state that will give voters the opportunity to take the measure of both of us and decide who best should represent them as Treasurer,” concluded Dodge.

* The Question: Your debate preview?

  40 Comments      


Pritzker refuses to say how much new revenue he’ll need from tax hike, so here’s my initial guesstimate

Thursday, Aug 23, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* As I told you earlier today, I’ve finally given up on asking JB Pritkzer to detail his preferred graduated income tax rates because he has always stuck firmly to this script forever

“You’ve gotta negotiate this with the legislature—Republicans and Democrats,” he said. “We have to come up with a rate schedule that doesn’t penalize people who are striving to get to the middle class, cause they’re paying, frankly, the highest rates in taxes in general.”

* So, I asked this question

He says that the tax rates have to be negotiated. Fine. How much net new revenue (approximately) does a graduated tax have to raise to do things like up the pension payment, reduce property taxes, fund programs, etc.?

* And I just received this answer…

Unlike the current governor who made decisions about cuts and spending without the input of others, JB is not interested in going it alone. He will work hand in hand with community leaders, stakeholders, and elected officials to make sure that we are investing in children, families, and communities across the state. As we identify all of the ways that Bruce Rauner’s failures have harmed Illinois, JB will partner with the legislature to achieve the policy priorities he has laid out in this campaign.

So, not only won’t Pritzker tell us which income levels should be protected from higher tax rates, now he won’t say how much money he has to raise to pay for his new programs.

And that leaves me no choice but to speculate.

* First, there’s a $1 billion or so structural operating deficit to deal with.

And then there’s his plan to accelerate pension payments. It sounds to me like he’s basing his idea on the Center for Tax and Budget Accountability’s reamortization plan, which proposes borrowing $11.2 billion over eight years. With interest, that’s about $1.7 billion a year.

The bill backlog stands today at $7.8 billion. Of that, you’d have to get rid of at least $4 billion to return to a “normal” payment cycle. Let’s say you bond out $4 billion over five years and you wind up with about $900 million in annual payments.

And let’s figure $1 billion for his new programs, just because it sounds like a nice round number and they won’t say what they want to spend so I have to just throw it out there. I could be low-balling, I just don’t know.

Pritzker also wants to do a big capital program. Let’s put that cost at $1 billion a year, because he’s mentioned that in the past as a baseline.

He said again yesterday that he wants to pump more money into local schools in order to lower property taxes, because that tax is really what’s driving people out of state. A five percent cut in local school property taxes (which ain’t much) would cost about $1 billion. I’m figuring he won’t go even that high. Does $500 million sound about right, particularly if you cheat a bit by including in that number the extra $300 million mandated every year by the new education funding reform plan?

So, you’re looking at $6.1 billion in revenue needs. But then there’s all the natural spending growth in programs like Medicaid. I don’t know what that could be, so let’s just say natural revenue growth takes care of it - even though it probably won’t.

Subtract out about $500 million gained from legalizing marijuana and sports betting and you’re at $5.6 billion (although that pot estimate is probably too, um, high). If they expand gaming in a big way, some say that could bring in $1 billion more a year, but I really doubt it.

To put all that into perspective, the last income tax hike in 2017 produced about $5.7 billion in new net revenues its first year, according to COGFA.

Am I missing anything? I’ll update if I am.

  68 Comments      


Our scintillating attorney general’s race

Thursday, Aug 23, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* An idea older than she is with no chance of passing and an empty complaint that somebody who has an opinion ought to go to Springfield to do something about it

Harold stressed the fact that she wants to be the state’s watchdog. The Attorney spoke on her desire to focus on workers comp and fighting against controversy in Springfield. Harold called it an asset that shes never held an elected office.

The Republican candidate wants voters to know that she wont be swayed by special interests from either parties.

“The Attorney General should be given the power by the General Assembly to be able to convene a statewide Grand Jury,” Harold said. “That’s important because it would give you the opportunity to be far more proactive and aggressive in investigating corruption.”

Harold’s opponent, Democrat Kwame Raoul was also there to speak with voters. When referring to Harold, he spoke on her “lack of experience”. The democrat said that she shouldn’t be able to make promises she knows nothing of, Raoul’s comments were in reference to her stating she will focus on workers comp issues.

“On all of these issues that she says she wants to advocate for now, shes never weighed in like people do on a day to day basis in Springfield,” explained Raoul. “People come from all over the state that are concerned about the policy that we are putting forth, she hasn’t been doing that.”

* You’re with Madigan! You’re with Rauner!

The main contenders for Illinois attorney general seeking to replace the retiring Lisa Madigan on Wednesday traded accusations of which contender was more beholden to their political leaders.

Republican contender Erika Harold of Urbana sought to link rival state Sen. Kwame Raoul to Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan. Raoul, after offering words of encouragement about Harold’s candidacy during the forum, used an appearance before reporters afterward to question her ties to Rauner and assailed her for lacking experience in policymaking. […]

“It’s not ironic that she was given $1 million a couple of weeks ago from Bruce Rauner and introduced herself in a general campaign with an ad comparing me to Mike Madigan,” Raoul told reporters. […]

“When you think about why Illinois is the way it is, you’ve had certain people that have been in power for a very long time. Speaker Michael Madigan is the longest serving (state) speaker of the House in U.S. history,” Harold said. “And my opponent has been in Springfield for the past 14 years, marching lockstep behind him. If you want change within your state, you cannot continue to send the same people there hoping that somehow they will change. And that’s why we have to have redistricting reform.”

They did talk about some substance. Harold jabbed Raoul for proposing a bill (SB3005) that she said would give legal standing to out of staters to block state environmental siting permits. Raoul said he withdrew the bill after discussions with the Farm Bureau and others. They also both talked about worker’s comp. She’s for a causation standard, for instance. No surprises. Lots of droning. She says he’s ducking debates, he says his campaign manager reached out last month about setting up debates.

  17 Comments      


It’s just a bill

Thursday, Aug 23, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner put politics over people and sought to increase his own power when he used an amendatory veto to change technical legislation to give himself new authority over approval of certain investments, Illinois State Treasurer Michael Frerichs said [yesterday].

“This is a stunning act even by Illinois’ insider and corrupt standards,” Frerichs said. “Before the Governor tries to do the Treasurer’s job, he should work on doing his own.”

Rauner changed SB 2661. The bi-partisan legislation, sponsored by Senator Jacqueline Collins (D-Chicago) and Representative Robert Martwick (D-Chicago), would have allowed the treasurer’s office to invest up to five percent of administrative funds in stocks of publicly traded American businesses.

Higher returns in the administrative funds would enable lower investment fees and lead to higher returns for college savers and local governments who use the Treasurer’s programs. Rauner’s proposed change would allow him – rather than the treasurer’s office – to have the final say over the actual stocks to be purchased or sold based on personal preferences rather than sound investment strategies.

“Separation of powers is as old as our country. It is a bedrock of our democracy,” Frerichs said. “In this era of executive overreach, Governor Rauner’s amendatory veto simply defies common sense.”

The legislation had overwhelming support by Republicans and Democrats. It passed the House 114-1 and the Senate 55-1.

* Fox 55

According to the National Center for Education Statistics, from 1991 to 2014 the state of Illinois lost 50,000 students at public universities and community colleges. Governor Bruce Rauner signed 2 new laws Tuesday in an effort to keep Illinois students in the state. […]

Senate Bill 2927 creates the AIM HIGH grant Pilot Program, a merit-based scholarship for Illinois students who attend college in-state. House Bill 4781 creates a task force to help share college and career interest data between high schools and higher education institutions.

* Press release…

Yesterday Governor Rauner issued an amendatory veto to House Bill 5104, which abolished the $5 co-pay Illinois prisoners must pay to see a doctor. The Governor cited balancing “the need to provide medical services with potential abuses of a free medical system that could create significant backlogs in an already overburdened Corrections healthcare system.” This decision is incredibly disappointing and the reasoning behind it flies in the face of research and correctional realities. There is little or no substantiation for the assertion that without a medical co-pay, prisoners will seek medical attention regardless of medical need; there is a plethora of evidence demonstrating correctional medical co-pays result in poorer overall health for prisoners and staff as well as increased costs to the state due to administrative expenses and heavier utilization of expensive emergency treatments.

HB5104 passed the Legislature with bipartisan support, and the Illinois Department of Corrections, the agency most impacted by this legislation, took a neutral position on it. The fact that the agency charged with the medical care of the state’s incarcerated population did not oppose abolishing the $5 co-pay is evidence that concerns about abuses of the prison healthcare system are not founded on fact or experience. Illinois is not alone in recognizing this; the National Commission on Correctional Health Care opposes inmate co-pays as an obstruction to quality, necessary healthcare in prisons.

* Other stuff…

* Deal him in: Decades later, ‘Gov. No-No’ now says ‘yes, yes’ to Chicago casino: Former Gov. Jim Edgar on Wednesday told the Sun-Times he doesn’t oppose a Chicago casino “anymore.”

* Jim Edgar: From one Illinois governor to another: Sign these five immigration bills

* Equitable funding is needed, SIUE staff members tell state panel: Kim Archer, president of the union at Edwardsville called SIUE needing to loan money to SIUC a slap in the face to Edwardsville. “After all, we were also entering our fourth year without so much as a half-percent cost of living adjustment, while some administrators on our campus quietly received five-figure raises,” Archer said.

* More protections needed for tax dollars, lawmaker says: Gov. Bruce Rauner signed a law to better control how taxpayer-funded grants are spent, but a state senator who pushed for the measure said it needs to go further. Rauner signed Senate Bill 2540 this week. The law puts limits on how grant dollars are issued. “Numerous nonprofits in Illinois are doing excellent, important work to improve our environment or improve people’s lives,” Rauner said in a statement. “This will help ensure that our limited grant resources are put to the best use.”

* New Law Aims to Increase Use of Compost in Illinois

* Learn the ‘Dutch Reach,’ save a cyclist’s life

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Campaign update

Thursday, Aug 23, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

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*** UPDATED x1 *** I don’t think this Rauner claim is true

Thursday, Aug 23, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Gov. Bruce Rauner appeared before the Illinois Agricultural Legislative Roundtable yesterday and was whether he supported abolishing the estate tax. Here’s his reply

Our estate tax should be eliminated. I’ve recommended that every year that I’ve been governor.

He has? I couldn’t find anything on Google about an official proposal while he’s been governor to abolish the estate/inheritance/death tax. Maybe you can help me find something because I also asked his press office for a response and haven’t heard back. And I searched through all of his budget addresses and couldn’t find anything, either…

* 2015
* 2016
* 2017
* 2018

*** UPDATE *** Text from Rep. Stephanie Kifowit (D-Oswego)…

Hi Rich, Just saw the blog. I introduced HB0648 - which would protect family farms from the estate tax if it is passed down to a qualified heir. It got stalled in subcommittee and I never once was contacted by the Governors office about it. I’m reintroducing it again next session.

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

But, hey, at least the governor is now firmly on record….

Pritzker said he hopes to keep the estate tax from hurting farmers but didn’t come out completely against it.

* Speaking of stuff that isn’t true

“I’ve lived in Illinois for 62 years, my entire life. I don’t know of a more important election in my lifetime than this election. Everything is on the line,” Rauner said.

I guess those years he spent at Dartmouth and Harvard don’t count?

…Adding… He also lived in Arizona for a few years before college

In 1971, when Rauner was a student at Lake Forest High School, the family moved to Scottsdale, Arizona. Vincent had left his law firm to head up Motorola’s lucrative patents division, based in nearby Phoenix. Rauner finished high school there, then entered Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire, in 1974.

He returned to Chicago for a year in 1978. Then left again.

* More on taxes

“Pritzker has proposed a mileage tax on cars. … Put a box in your car, measure your miles and pay a tax based on how many miles you drive,” Rauner told reporters after addressing about 100 at the Illinois Agricultural Legislative Roundtable at Rader Farms. “That’ll be devastating for farm families (and) anyone who lives in a small town or rural community.”

Pritzker denied that he has such a plan but didn’t back away from the idea entirely while addressing reporters after his remarks.

“What I said is there are tests that have been done on this (tax) and I think we’ve got to look for how we’re going to pay for infrastructure in the state. It’s not anything definitive,” said Pritzker. “We can’t … go without an infrastructure capital bill for the state. It’s late at this point.”

This is what Pritzker said in January that got Rauner all riled up

“In some states (such as Oregon) they have done tests recently for a VMT tax because we have more and more electric cars on the road, more and more hybrids, and because gas mileage is rising. It’s only fair if you’re on a road and traveling on that road that you should pay your fair share,” he said.

A VMT tax “is something we should look at … we have to careful how it gets implemented and that’s why it should only be a test at this point.”

Voters don’t do nuance.

* One more tax thing

On ethanol-based fuels E-85 and E-15, however, Pritzker was more assertive, saying he completely supports sales tax exemptions to encourage farmers to work with those alternative energy sources. Rauner said he would like to negotiate some kind of new policy.

* Related…

* Rauner, Pritzker Face Off in Southern Illinois Forum: “Higher taxes and more corruption which is what Madigan and my challenger are really part of,” he said. He also embraced several Trump administration policies. “The White House and Congress cut the tax burden, removed the red tape on businesses, fought unfair trade deals,” he said. “We need to do the exact same thing for the state of Illinois.” He even incorporated a familiar phrase. “This is the greatest place on earth, Illinois, and we’re going to make it great again,” Rauner said.

* Gov. Bruce Rauner, J.B. Pritzker clash at agriculture forum over Trump policies: Rauner also appeared to acknowledge the region’s support for Trump and how that could assist him after largely distancing himself from the controversial president. “Lower the taxes, roll back the income tax hike, cut the red tape and we’ll get Illinois booming just the way the federal government has done for the U.S. economy,” Rauner said. “The U.S. economy is strong. Illinois is doing fairly well because the federal government — the White House and Congress — has cut the tax burden, cut the red tape on businesses, fought unfair trade deals, fought against illegal immigration, and we’re strong and we’re getting stronger. We need to do that exact same thing for the state of Illinois,” he said.

* Rauner, Pritzker Make Back-To-Back Pitches To Illinois Farmers: Pritzker said Rauner hasn’t delivered for Illinois farmers, including during the two-year budget standoff. He cited the 2017 closure of the Department of Agriculture’s Galesburg Animal Disease Laboratory, at the time the state’s only animal-disease testing lab.

* Rauner Vetoes Bill to Create Urban Agriculture Zones in Illinois: This spring, the legislation passed the Illinois House by a vote of 86-22 and the state Senate by a unanimous 55-0 vote. But Rauner issued an amendatory veto Monday, proposing to strip the bill of property tax abatements and other incentives that would have benefitted urban farmers. Using property tax abatements to incentivize growing “would continue a problematic pattern of shifting property taxes to other taxpayers who may or may not directly benefit from the creation of these Urban Agriculture Zones,” Rauner said in his veto message. “Abatements like this simply redistribute property taxes, when homeowners are already struggling under the immense weight of their own tax burdens.”

  47 Comments      


Lots of fingers pointing at CVS

Thursday, Aug 23, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* An independent pharmacy is closing its doors in Lincoln, so the SJ-R takes a look at one of the reasons why it couldn’t remain in business

The Springfield-based Illinois Pharmacists Association says many owners of the state’s more than 500 independent pharmacies and smaller chains are being paid less than the “acquisition cost,” or wholesale cost, of the medicines they dispense to Medicaid patients.

Garth Reynolds, executive director of the association, says pharmacies also have seen their per-prescription “dispensing fee” from Medicaid, a fee designed to cover professional services, drop from $5.50 for generics and $2.40 for name-brand drugs under the previous “fee-for-service” system to the current 45 cents per prescription.

Advocates for managed-care organizations and [pharmacy benefit managers] say the managers save states money in their Medicaid systems. But advocates for pharmacy owners say Illinois’ less-than-transparent managed-care contracts conceal what may be unfairly high profits by PBMs that are being earned at the expense of independent pharmacies.

And because at least one PBM, CVS Caremark, is owned by the huge chain that operates CVS pharmacies, independent pharmacies say Caremark’s rate cuts may be designed to put independents out of business.

“We’re seeing in other states the exact same problem,” said state Rep. Greg Harris, D-Chicago. “We’ve got something going on that’s against the public interest.”

* Speaking of CVS

Hospitals have been closing at a rate of about 30 a year, according to the American Hospital Association, and patients living far from major cities may be left with even fewer hospital choices as insurers push them toward online providers like Teladoc Inc. and clinics such as CVS Health Corp’s MinuteClinic. […]

The risks are coming following years of mergers and acquisitions. The most recent deal saw Apollo Global Management LLC swallowing rural hospital chain LifePoint Health Inc. for $5.6 billion last month. Apollo declined to comment on the deal; LifePoint has until Aug. 22 to solicit other offers. Consolidation among other health-care players, such as CVS’s planned takeover of insurer Aetna Inc., could also pressure hospitals as payers push patients toward outpatient services.

…Adding… The Washington Post published an interesting story on who’s behind some of this fight. Click here. And Axios put it into some more perspective this month. Click here.

  12 Comments      


OK, I give up. Let’s try a new question

Thursday, Aug 23, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Ryan Denham at WGLT

During a Q&A with reporters, Pritzker did not answer a question about whether he would flesh out his tax plan with specific rates and brackets before the election.

“I’ve been clear about what the principles are for a fair tax system,” Pritzker told GLT. “First of all, we need to ask people like Bruce Rauner and me to pay a slightly higher rate. We need to make sure there’s a graduated system so people in the middle class and those who are striving to get there actually get a tax break. He likes to say that other states aren’t creating jobs with a fair tax system. Tell that to New York and California and Minnesota. They’ve created lots of jobs.”

At what income level will people’s taxes go up?

“You’ve gotta negotiate this with the legislature—Republicans and Democrats,” he said. “We have to come up with a rate schedule that doesn’t penalize people who are striving to get to the middle class, cause they’re paying, frankly, the highest rates in taxes in general.”

Sigh.

Months of pounding on Pritzker to release his proposed rates clearly has not and will not work. So, after listening to Pritzker’s comments yesterday, I came up with a new idea and texted his campaign spokesperson this…

He says that the tax rates have to be negotiated. Fine. How much net new revenue (approximately) does a graduated tax have to raise to do things like up the pension payment, reduce property taxes, fund programs, etc.?

I’ll let you know how they respond.

  55 Comments      


Rauner signs bipartisan bill packages addressing mental health and opioid crisis

Thursday, Aug 23, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I know this is very long, but try to read it anyway…

Gov. Bruce Rauner this week signed a bill package that increases access to mental health and substance use disorder treatment and addresses the state’s opioid crisis.

“We are taking steps to dramatically improve mental health and substance use disorder treatment for the people of Illinois,” Rauner said. “These five initiatives work together to improve the quality of care and hopefully, the quality of life for so many Illinoisans suffering from mental health and substance use disorders.”

Signed Wednesday:

    Senate Bill 1707 improves insurance companies’ coverage of mental health and substance use disorder treatments and strengthens the ability of the Department of Insurance to protect consumers.
    Senate Bill 682 allows providers to give immediate access to outpatient treatment by removing prior authorization barriers.
    Senate Bill 3049 expands access to behavioral and mental health experts for Medicaid patients by allowing them to utilize telehealth technology.

Signed Tuesday:

    Senate Bill 3023 partners law enforcement agencies with licensed substance abuse service providers.
    Senate Bill 2951 provides the Department of Healthcare and Family Services the opportunity to apply for a waiver that would allow treatment for serious mental illness on the first episode of psychosis.

“The Opioid Helpline has received over 5,000 calls in eight months,” Rauner said. “The State Police have trained approximately 1,600 officers in the use of NARCAN. And now, with this signing, we are reaffirming our efforts, putting Illinois on the path to becoming the nation’s leader in mental health and substance use disorder treatment.”

In a ceremony at Memorial Center for Learning & Innovation in Springfield on Wednesday, Rauner signed the bill package to improve the quality of care for Illinoisans with mental health and substance use disorders.

“This is no time for moral platitudes, judgment or shame,” Rauner said. “We are amid an opioid crisis in our state and around the country. We need comprehensive, evidence-based solutions. And that is what we have here today.”

Senate Bill 1707, passed with overwhelming bipartisan support, improves the scope and coverage of Illinois’ parity laws and provides clear enforcement power to the Department of Insurance (DOI). The legislation prohibits prior authorization and step-therapy requirements for FDA-approved medications to treat substance use disorders and requires generic medications be on the lowest-tier of prescription formularies.

“This law is putting the ability to treat people and get them well back in the hands of providers,” Rauner said. “It lets providers do their jobs saving lives.”

The legislation also prohibits exclusions of the prescription coverage and related support services for substance use disorders because they are court-ordered.

“These medications are a critical component in the state’s efforts to combat the opioid crisis and get people, including those who are ordered by the court to seek treatment, the help they need,” said DOI Director Jennifer Hammer. “This isn’t just about rules and regulations, it’s about not giving up on people.”

This legislation also aims to improve transparency by requiring insurance companies to make parity compliance information available via a public website.

“I applaud the Illinois legislature and Gov. Rauner for enacting this landmark parity legislation, which will hold insurers accountable for complying with state and federal mental health parity laws,” said former Congressman Patrick J. Kennedy, founder of The Kennedy Forum. “By increasing access to treatment amid skyrocketing rates of overdoses and suicides in this country, SB 1707 will save lives! I call on other states to follow Illinois’ lead in demanding insurer and regulator transparency and accountability to help end coverage discrimination against people with mental health and addiction challenges.”

The legislation clarifies that medication-assisted treatment medical necessity determinations must comply with the American Society of Addiction medicine guidelines.

“This state, like many others, has a serious problem with the overuse of prescription painkillers and runaway opioid addictions,” said Rep. Margo McDermed, R-Mokena, who co-sponsored the bill. “Simplifying this process will most certainly improve patients’ quality of life and it will hopefully lead to less opioid overdoses.”

Finally, the legislation requires that school district plans comply with state parity laws.

“Mental health and substance abuse issues are a serious problem that affect many citizens in Illinois,” said Sen. Laura Murphy, D-Des Plaines, who co-sponsored the bill. “Information about and access to adequate treatments is often difficult for those suffering from these issues to find or afford. These treatments have the potential to save the lives of those who need them, so it’s critical that we as a legislature do all that we can to ensure that anyone who needs treatment can get it.”

Senate Bill 682 is a key component in addressing the opioid crisis by providing people in need immediate access to outpatient treatment.

“Obtaining treatment is often a matter of life and death for people fighting addiction,” Rauner said. “SB 682 helps give them the tools to win that fight.”

Currently, individuals experiencing an opioid overdose or reaction must wait for their treatment to be approved by their insurance plan before entering a facility. The legislation removes prior authorization barriers so people do not have to wait for treatment.

“This year Illinois tackled the issue of substance use, working closely with providers to remove barriers to admission,” said Rep. Sara Feigenholtz, D-Chicago, chief sponsor of the legislation in the House. “The moment a person decides they are ready to enter a recovery program is a crucial one — and that person should never be turned away. SB 682 removes the prior authorization requirement to eliminate barriers to recovery treatment.”

“When a provider determines that an individual with a substance abuse addiction needs immediate treatment that is medically critical, prior authorization from an insurance company can cause delay in care,” said Sen. John Mulroe, D-Chicago, chief sponsor of the bill in the Senate. “That delay in care has resulted in death. Senate Bill 682 will remove an administrative barrier to treat substance abuse addiction and will aid in the fight against the opioid epidemic.”

In the event the insurance company denies treatment, SB 682 requires the insurance plan to cover outpatient treatment for 72 hours while the patient challenges the denial.

“It gives those in need the option for immediate coverage while they determine future coverage,” said the Department of Insurance’s Hammer. “It provides the support these people need at the right place at the right time. We hope it will encourage treatment and save and improve countless lives.”

The legislation also defines that those who are insured will be free to select the professional of their choice to treat their disorder and the insurer must pay the covered charges if they are listed in the policy.

“Both rural and urban Illinois families have lost loved ones to drug overdoses that, in many cases, could have been prevented with immediate access to addiction treatment,” said Illinois Association for Behavioral Health CEO Sara Howe. “By eliminating insurance pre-authorization red tape for critical care, Gov. Rauner deserves praise for now ensuring swift access to vital addiction services that will save lives.”

Senate Bill 3023 partners law enforcement agencies with licensed substance abuse service providers to focus on preventive measures in dealing with the opioid crisis and other substance use issues.

“Our police officers want to help us solve the problem, not just punish people,” Rauner said. “This effort builds community and allows our law enforcement and peace officers a way to give people help instead of a criminal record.”

“Substance abuse contributes to crime, hurts Illinois families and deteriorates communities,” said Rep. Marcus Evans, D-Chicago, the chief sponsor of the bill in the House. “Our Illinois law enforcement and human services leaders understand this reality, and I applaud their support of a solution in the form of SB 3023. I am happy to see this community- and family-improving idea become law.”

The legislation allows for a deflection program where peace officers or members of law enforcement agencies facilitate contact between an individual and licensed substance abuse treatment provider or other such professionals.

“We know the factors involved with treating mental health and substance abuse are multilayered and complex,” said Sen. Melinda Bush, D-Grayslake, chief sponsor of the bill in the Senate. “Early detection is key, as both issues can manifest into a lifetime of challenges if left untreated.”

“This new law focuses on preventive measures in dealing with the opioid crisis and other substance abuse issues,” said Sen. Tim Bivins, R-Dixon, who co-sponsored the legislation. “It partners law enforcement agencies with licensed substance abuse service providers to treat individuals with substance abuse problems before they are arrested. Getting these individuals help before they enter the jail system will make it easier for them to resume their daily routines later without a criminal record, and will reduce the burden on local jail and court systems.”

“This legislation is modeled off the Safe-Passage Program in Dixon, Illinois,” said Rep. Tom Demmer, R-Dixon, who co-sponsored the legislation in the House. “Dixon has had great success with 215 people placed directly into treatment over incarceration. This has resulted in a 39 percent reduction in arrests for drug crimes, as well as properly deflecting people to get the medically driven substance abuse help they need instead of making it difficult for them to get help because of a criminal record.”

“Deflection programs provide police officers with another option when dealing with someone they believe may have opioid or other substance abuse problems,” said Sen. Dan McConchie, R-Hawthorn Woods, who co-sponsored the legislation in the Senate. “Continuously arresting and locking up such troubled individuals rarely fixes their underlying issue. It is my hope that with these deflection programs, we can get people the treatment and help they need to get better.”

Senate Bill 3049, signed Tuesday night, expands access to behavioral and mental health experts for Medicaid beneficiaries by allowing patients to meet their behavior and mental health needs via telehealth technology — as is the current practice in over 30 states.

“By encouraging telehealth services through reimbursement, we can lower the cost of our health care system and allow more people to receive vital treatment that can improve their lives,” Rauner said. “We are grateful to the leadership of Lt. Gov. Sanguinetti and the Illinois Telemedicine Task Force for all the hard work they have put in to make this life-changing initiative a reality for so many people.”

Lt. Gov. Evelyn Sanguinetti has visited nearly two dozen hospitals and medical offices across Illinois the past two years to learn how telemedicine improves access to quality health care while reducing costs. As co-chair of the Illinois Medicaid Telemedicine Task Force, she has passionately advocated for expansive telemedicine reform and strongly supported the legislation.

“Medicaid clients with behavioral health needs represent 25 percent of all Medicaid enrollees but account for 56 percent of all Medicaid spending,” Sanguinetti said. “By signing SB 3049 today, Gov. Rauner will immediately improve access to mental health experts for Medicaid beneficiaries. The result will be fewer emergency visits, reduced hospital stays and readmissions, and lower costs to taxpayers — but most importantly, a better quality of life for those with mental and behavioral health needs.”

After researching cost analyses of other states’ programs and third-party studies, Sanguinetti and members of the Illinois Medicaid Telemedicine Task Force recommended expanding Medicaid telehealth coverage to improve access to quality health care in a way that lowers the overall cost to Medicaid.

“This plan begins to solve a problem in central and southern Illinois by breaking down a significant barrier to mental health care, which is access,” said Sen. Andy Manar, D-Bunker Hill, chief sponsor of the measure in the Senate. “By chipping away at some of Illinois’ outdated regulations, we can help families begin to get more of the help they need in a timely manner closer to home for a fraction of the cost.”

“Telehealth medicine is the way of the future,” said Rep. Sue Scherer, D-Decatur, chief co-sponsor of the legislation in the House. “After working nine months on this bill, it is now becoming law. I appreciate the bipartisan support from both the House of Representatives and the Senate.”

The legislation requires Medicaid to reimburse eligible behavioral and mental health providers at the same rate it would reimburse for in-person care.

“I’m grateful to Gov. Rauner for signing this important piece of legislation that will help so many residents in Illinois have better access to behavioral health services,” said Rep. Sara Wojcicki Jimenez, R-Leland Grove, who co-sponsored the bill in the House. “As we continue to study this issue in our house mental health committee meetings, we continue to prioritize access issues to this important service, especially in downstate Illinois.”

The measure will also allow schools, hospitals, substance abuse centers and other Medicaid-eligible facilities that serve as the location of the patient at the time of a telehealth appointment to receive a $25 facility fee from Medicaid.

“The Illinois Health and Hospital Association (IHA) and the hospital community commend Gov. Rauner and the General Assembly, especially sponsors Sen. Andy Manar and Rep. Sue Scherer, for enacting this important legislation to improve telehealth coverage for critically needed behavioral health services,” said IHA President and CEO A.J. Wilhelmi. “This is a positive step in strengthening Illinoisans’ access to provider networks, contributing to timely care in the most appropriate setting and helping facilitate the integration of physical and behavioral health care in hospital and primary care settings. This will help enhance the efficient delivery of care, such as by avoiding unnecessary hospital emergency department utilization.”

Currently, reimbursement is only provided to psychiatrists and Federally Qualified Health Centers for telepsychiatry.

“Health care providers that offer mental health services are crucial to combating mental health issues in Illinois,” said Sen. Murphy of Des Plaines, who co-sponsored the bill in the Senate. “By expanding the number of mental health care providers who can bill Medicaid for telehealth services, we hope to avoid a situation where a health care provider who is facing financial trouble has to turn away a patient in need.”

Senate Bill 2951, signed Tuesday night, provides the Department of Health and Family Services (HFS) the opportunity to apply for a waiver that would allow treatment for serious mental illness on the first episode of psychosis.

“The Early Mental Health and Addictions Treatment Act puts Illinois in the forefront nationally in tackling the country’s long-standing mental health crisis,” said Senior Vice President of Advocacy and Public Policy at Thresholds Heather O’Donnell. “If federal approval is granted, Illinois will be the first state in the country to cover through Medicaid a treatment model, including intensive wrap-around services, tailored specifically for young people in the early stages of a serious mental health condition.”

Early intervention is important in reducing the severity of the progression of the disease as well as preventing future emergency room visits. It is especially vital for young people who will benefit from early intervention.

“First episode treatment has proven to be highly successful,” said Feigenholtz, chief sponsor of the bill in the Senate. “Illinois should be proud to be among the first states to pilot these interventions around the state.”

Praising the overall package of bills was Ed Curtis, president and CEO of Memorial Health System.

“Health care is about people serving people. It’s not something any of our organizations can do alone,” Curtis said. “These bills illustrate the importance of collaboration within our community and our state to improve the healthcare of our citizens.”

Last year, Rauner issued an executive order to create the Governor’s Opioid Prevention and Intervention Task Force to help combat the epidemic. This spring he launched Better Care Illinois which, through an 1115 waiver, will allow the state to better address substance abuse in Illinois.

“Mental health often determines our physical health,” Rauner said. “It is vital we increase Illinoisans’ access to treatments that can improve and save their lives. This bill package is the culmination of almost four years of bipartisan, public–private sector work, and I couldn’t be more proud of what we have accomplished together.”

  3 Comments      


This ain’t rocket science

Thursday, Aug 23, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Hmm

“We already have the second-highest property taxes in the country,” [Sen. Dan McConchie, R-Hawthorn Woods] said. “There’s not a lot that we at the state level can do to directly address property taxes. We need local units of government to constrain their own budgets.”

* OK, first, government budgets can always use some constraining. But here’s a reminder of how most of our local property tax money is spent

A total of $28.7 billion in property taxes were levied statewide in 2015. Of the $28.7 billion levied statewide, nearly $18.0 billion, or 62.6% went to fund school districts.

* The national average for state government funding

Some 47 percent of K-12 spending nationally comes from state funds (the share varies by state). Cuts at the state level force local school districts to scale back educational services, raise more local revenue to cover the gap, or both.

* The Illinois numbers

IL only contributes less than 20% of the money for educating public K-12 students.

So, it stands to reason that if our state government was funding classrooms at the national average, then pressure would be eased on local property taxes. Not all, of course. But a goodly chunk for sure.

We’ve known this forever. We just deny the facts when inconvenient or we shrug it off.

  51 Comments      


Ives and Axelrod on Rauner

Thursday, Aug 23, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune

State Rep. Jeanne Ives, the Wheaton Republican who came within 3 percentage points of knocking off GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner in the March primary, said she’s not surprised by poll results showing the governor with weak support from conservatives.

Ives also acknowledged she has not spoken to Rauner about the election since the primary. Asked if he had reached out to her, Ives said, “Not that I know of.” […]

“I’m not surprised by the poll results. I travel the state still. I’m asked to speak around the state at various functions and I hear directly from Republican voters and so I’m not surprised by any of this,” Ives said at an unrelated downtown Chicago news conference. […]

Asked by a reporter if the meager showing for Rauner among conservatives was indicative of the conservative split, Ives said, “I think that is what the poll would indicate.” Still, Ives said she intended to stick to her commitment to “vote for the Republican nominee” on Nov. 6.

Yeah, that poll just doesn’t have a whole lot of good news for Rauner. The thing that jumped out at me the most was that 20 percent of registered voters who self-identified as conservative/very conservative said they were voting for Pritzker, while 55 percent were with Rauner.

* Politico talked to David Axelrod about the race

“Any consultant would say you’ve got to take the other guy down. It may be too late for him to project any sense of why the next four years would be any different than the last four years. That’s the question,” Axelrod said.

“If he were to come back under these conditions, it would be one of the greatest political rehabilitation stories in Illinois history,” said Axelrod, who expects Rauner “to run brutal negative ads and hope he can knock Pritzker down to the point to pass him.”

Axelrod said Rauner’s favorability numbers also need to rise in order for him to get out of his funk. The poll shows voters have a negative opinion of him by a 2-to-1 margin. Those numbers seem “almost impossible to surmount,” said Axelrod. “But impossible things happen in politics.”

Told of Axelrod’s comments, Rauner spokesman Alex Browning responded, “Pundits and public polling were wrong about Bruce Rauner in 2014 and they’ll be wrong again in 2018. With Illinois’ future on the line, voters care about lowering taxes and fighting corruption, not polling and prop bets.”

  21 Comments      


The most southern Illinois TV ad so far this year

Thursday, Aug 23, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Democrat Jason Woolard is running against freshman Rep. Dave Severin (R-Benton) in a deep southern Illinois district. Woolard’s new ad hits all the high spots

The video is not great because somebody sent the ad to me with their phone.

* Script

Hi, I’m Jason Woolard. I’m a Christian. I’m pro-life. I’m pro-gun. And I’m running for state Representative.

My promise to you is this: I won’t break my word to you. I won’t walk out on you. I won’t answer to anyone but you. And I won’t put my personal interest before you.

You’ve always had my back. I’m Jason Woolard. I’ve got your back.

Severin beat Democratic Rep. John Bradley two years ago. Donald Trump won the 117th District by 43 percentage points. I kid you not.

  37 Comments      


Rauner explains his biker pins in new campaign video

Thursday, Aug 23, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Background is here. Press release…

New Rauner Campaign Digital Video: “Bruce’s Biker Pins”

Following yesterday’s endorsement from ABATE of Illinois PAC, the Rauner campaign released a new digital video today featuring Governor Rauner talking about the pins on his biker vest.

Governor Rauner has received hundreds of pins from various organizations and different communities throughout the state. In this video, he highlights three pins in particular: a Cubs legend Ernie Banks pin, one from the Illinois Firefighters Memorial, and one to commemorate the Honor Flights program he has been deeply involved with during his time as governor.

As Patrick “PJ” Jones, President of Chicago ABATE, said: “Governor Rauner is a true motorcyclist, and we feel it’s a slap in the face of all motorcyclists for someone to have called his riding apparel a COSTUME – we take our riding gear serious, and so does he.“

* The video

Thoughts?

  70 Comments      


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Thursday, Aug 23, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Wednesday, Aug 22, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Yeah, this line will never find its way into a TV ad. Nope. Not a chance

Wednesday, Aug 22, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* DGA…

Rauner Yesterday: “I’m So Proud Of What’s Going On In Washington, D.C.”

At a campaign stop yesterday, Governor Bruce Rauner sang the praises of the White House’s agenda on the same day that two of President Donald Trump’s close associates became felons. The Herald & Review captured Rauner’s full embrace:

“It’s an honor for me to work for you and I’m so proud of what’s going on in Washington, D.C. In Washington they are cutting taxes, they’re reducing regulation, they’re fighting against the illegal immigration, they’re fighting against unfair trade barriers and unfair trade deals. They’re creating more jobs and helping the American workers. We’ve got higher wages now and more jobs now because of that. Illinois is strong because of what is happening in Washington and what our doing in our administration.”

President Trump lost Illinois by 17 points, but a recent NBC/Marist poll found him with higher favorability ratings than Rauner (30% to 26%).

“As Donald Trump’s top advisers head to prison and his administration is enveloped in scandal, Bruce Rauner is proud of President Trump’s work in Washington,” said DGA Illinois Communications Director Sam Salustro. “It’s no wonder that Illinois voters view Bruce Rauner, lacking in principles and lacking in accomplishments, as a failed leader.”

  45 Comments      


More promises, more vague revenue plans

Wednesday, Aug 22, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Circling back on this story from last week because I missed this bit the first time

Speaking after the rally, Pritzker said that, if elected, getting an infrastructure bill that will address Illinois’ roads, bridges and waterways will be “critically important” for him during his first year in office.

The last comprehensive capital plan in Illinois, the $31 billion Illinois Jobs Now! plan, was signed by then-Gov. Pat Quinn in 2009.

When asked how to cover the cost of a capital plan, Pritzker suggested possible revenue streams such as legalized sports betting, online sales tax and legalizing and taxing marijuana.

His official infrastructure plan only mentions bringing in more federal dollars.

Online sales tax money is already budgeted and sports betting won’t bring in huge state tax dollars.

He’s talked about taxing pot for a long time, but mainly for general revenue purposes, although he did seem to suggest once that it could be used for education funding.

Pritzker said in April that marijuana could be in the mix for a capital bill, along with his graduated income tax (which he still won’t detail).

I do not expect the man to produce a full state budget on his own. But he’s making a lot of promises and we don’t even have a coherent outline of how he’s gonna pay for them. I mean, even Bruce Rauner did that in 2014.

Pritzker is launching a new three-day tour of central and southern Illinois. Hopefully, he’ll get pressed on some of this stuff.

  35 Comments      


Question of the day

Wednesday, Aug 22, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* It’s still a free country and everyone is entitled to think how they want, and I strongly disagree with this analysis

The latest Democratic mailers are accusing state Rep. Lindsay Parkhurst of voting against programs for veterans and the elderly.

That’s misleading. The Democrats have provided no proof she targeted those programs in particular. […]

The Democrats are using a similar tactic against Rep. Jerry Long, R-Streator, in La Salle County. A recent flyer accuses Long of opposing money for programs that track sex offenders, citing the same budget bill that he joined Parkhurst in voting against. The programs tracking sex offenders consume only a tiny fraction of the budget, which is tens of billions of dollars.

My own opinion is that if you vote “No” on a bipartisan compromise budget that’s signed into law, this is what you can expect. Yes, it’s ugly, but their vote is their vote. Those who voted “Yes” have had to answer for whatever’s in the bill, like money for the Obama presidential center.

So, while Parkhurst and Long may fully support those state programs in their own minds, their actual voting record is the only thing that truly counts. It’s public record. It’s fair game.

But I know from previous posts that many disagree. So…

* The Question: Is it fair game to ding legislators over the details of a bipartisan budget that they officially opposed or supported? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.


polls

…Adding… I should add that some of these mailers (that the Dems do all the time) can backfire on their candidates. As well they should. But that’s also part of the campaign process. Your opponent goes too far, you benefit. Saying somebody supports rapists or child molesters or whatever because they voted against a budget can cause the accuser problems if the hit isn’t believable.

But the overall point still stands.

  63 Comments      


Stop calling the cops for stupid stuff

Wednesday, Aug 22, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* While looking out your house’s window in Wilmette you see a little girl walking her dog without any adults around. Do you 1) Ignore it because this is Wilmette and the kid is old enough to walk her own dog; 2) Go outside and ask the little girl if she’s OK because maybe she isn’t old enough and could’ve wandered off; or 3) Immediately call the cops? If you chose “3″ I just cannot understand you at all

Just after returning home from a walk around the block with her dog, Marshmallow, an 8-year-old Wilmette girl expected a visit from a playmate. Instead, police officers arrived at the family’s door.

An anonymous caller had contacted police after seeing the girl walking the dog alone, said her mother, Corey Widen. While police never pursued charges, the seemingly common activity launched an Illinois Department of Children and Family Services investigation to see if Widen was neglecting her children, she said.

“For something like this to happen to me, there’s something really wrong,” said Widen, 48, who agreed to let her 8-year-old daughter and 17-year-old son get the Maltese puppy last year as long as everyone took turns walking her. Widen, who asked that her daughter’s name not be used, said the girl’s walk around the block — most of which Widen says she can see out her windows — is the only time her home-schooled daughter is unsupervised. “The funny thing is … I’m a joke with my friends because my kids are around me all the time.” […]

Like in many states, the law in Illinois is vague. It defines a neglected minor as a child younger than 14 left “without supervision for an unreasonable period of time without regard for the mental or physical health, safety or welfare of that minor.”

But DCFS investigations are separate from criminal ones; even if police decide a parent has not broken the law, there could still be child welfare repercussions.

  64 Comments      


Davis finally denies his campaign sent tracker to opponent’s fundraiser

Wednesday, Aug 22, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Only took him a week…



Background is here.

* Davis’ former staffer, by the way, posted this rambling story on the Young Americans for Liberty website several months ago

Here at EIU the culture doesn’t allow for much freedom of speech. The PC culture is alive and well at Eastern Illinois University, so my Restore the 4th event was lackluster. Our campus and therefore student culture is dominated by authoritarian leftists who condemn free speech in favor of safe speech and false pretenses of being non-offensive. Unless you’re a “progressive” group, or advocating for whatever group is trending at the time, real open free speech is hard to come by. That’s why my event last week was unique. Since I could not get official university recognition, I had to get creative to spread the message. Instead of setting up a booth or informational table, I took to the street and canvassed to individuals who couldn’t be bothered to peel their faces from their phones. This in -your -face, aggressive guerilla style seemed like the most effective way to spread the message in a seemingly uninterested audience. Hearing many people argue that there are more important causes than worrying about the content of their phones was truly disappointing. Have we become so fascinated with everyone else’s lives that we simply don’t care what happens to our own? While I didn’t get the experience or levels of enthusiasm I was hoping for, I got something else. I acquired a desire to help spread the message of liberty across my campus. It is sorely lacking free-thinkers and those who challenge authority.

Emphasis added.

  35 Comments      


Rauner calls his campaign “the most important election of my lifetime”

Wednesday, Aug 22, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Pantagraph

Several dozen people crammed inside the Stripmasters break room to hear Rauner speak for about 10 minutes. Calling November “the most important election of my lifetime,” Rauner stressed the importance of voting for GOP candidates down the ballot.

Well, yeah. Understandable because he appears to be very much on the bubble right now. I’d say the same if I was him, but maybe not out loud to a group of people.

* Back to the governor

Electing more Republicans would make it possible to enact more measures that Rauner has long supported, such as term limits for elected officials, he said.

“We’re going to work our tails off to pick up at least two seats in the Senate and pick up nine seats in the House of Representatives,” Rauner said. “Mike Madigan will be gone!”

He hasn’t yet contributed any money to the Senate Republicans this cycle. Just sayin…

…Adding… Oops…



* Coverage roundup for the governor’s latest tour…

* Gov. Rauner shares views during Shelbyville visit: Rauner’s main point, which he mentioned several times, was his hope to get rid of corruption brought on by corrupt Chicago politicians. … Rauner encourages voters to, “Get Erika Herold in as Attorney General, because she’ll help prosecute corruption and investigate unethical behavior.”

* Governor Rauner stops in Macomb: He urged voters to make Illinois a Republican-majority state, saying it was “the only way” to effect meaningful change. “We have a Democratic Party that’s taken over the state (and) one-party rule for decades: Madigan, Blagojevich, Quinn - the whole crowd - and they’ve almost bankrupted us, morally as well as financially,” he said. “We can’t have that. Democracy doesn’t work on a one-party basis.”

* Rauner rallies Republican supporters with barbecue, barbs in Decatur: Asked about Scranton’s previous remarks, Rauner said he has been endorsed by “every business group and every small business owner in the state.”

* Rauner signs pair of higher-education bills in stop at Papa Del’s: “Yay, Papa Del’s pizza,” Rauner said.

  34 Comments      


Not exactly in the spirit of #MeToo

Wednesday, Aug 22, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Hmm…



* Yeah, well, that ain’t got nothing on this ILGOP mailer attacking a different House Democrat…

See, it’s funny because the female legislator is portrayed as a waitress taking an order from her boss Mike Madigan. Get it?

Ugh.

  44 Comments      


ABATE president takes offense at Pritzker ad

Wednesday, Aug 22, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* ABATE endorsed Gov. Bruce Rauner today. From its Chicago president, Patrick “PJ” Jones, who is referring to a recent JB Pritzker TV ad. Click here to watch it

“Bruce was a member before becoming Governor and has been a friend to all motorcyclists in the state. He has gone on many rides with the Chicago Chapter, and has supported many of the charities that we support including the Chicagoland Toys for Tots Parade and Shriners Hospitals.

“Governor Rauner is a true motorcyclist, and we feel it’s a slap in the face of all motorcyclists for someone to have called his riding apparel a COSTUME – we take our riding gear serious, and so does he.”

He does indeed…

  92 Comments      


Another look at that NBC/Marist poll

Wednesday, Aug 22, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Never make assumptions based on just one poll in August. Or at any time for that matter. For instance, a Tribune poll in September of 2014 had Gov. Pat Quinn leading Bruce Rauner by eleven points. That didn’t work out too well.

While those Tribune poll results went against the national pro-GOP tide four years ago, this new NBC/Marist poll seems to go right along with the national “blue wave” predictions. JB Pritzker leads Gov. Rauner by 16 and the Democrats have a huge ballot advantage in congressional races.

Even so, the poll has some very puzzling results in the crosstabs.

It’s not weighted too heavily for Democrats (38 percent), but polls of registered voters will tend to skew a bit more Democratic than polls of likely voters, and this one is of registered voters. It’s close enough on the geographical and racial splits, but it does look a bit on the young side.

* For me, anyway, the really odd results are in the collar counties and in central/southern Illinois. As you know, Hillary Clinton won every collar county except McHenry and Donald Trump did really well in Downstate.

Yet, when asked if they preferred a Republican or Democratic Congress, the collars chose the Republican Party 45-40 and central/southern Illinoisans chose the Democrats 44-40. The partisan margins in both regions were even more pronounced when asked which party they intended to vote for in the congressional elections.

Same for the governor’s race. The collars chose Rauner 40-34, while central/southern Illinoisans preferred Pritzker 43-33. A ten-point winning margin in that region would be an absolutely stunning upset for Pritzker and would reverse decades of trends.

* Now, even if the poll is dead wrong about those two regions, the overall results could be close to right. I’ve seen plenty of polls with some questionable crosstabs that wound up mirroring the final overall result. Also, Clinton won Illinois by 17 points and this poll has Pritzker ahead by 16. Another wave is almost assuredly heading our way. Etc., etc.

All I’m saying here is that either a couple of this poll’s regional results are off or are expectations are off. We’ll find out in November.

Also, for the small number of you who think that Pritzker should be leading by even more than 16 points, I’d point you to the very similar 2016 presidential results and the fact that the last time a sitting governor lost reelection by double-digits was 1960, when Otto Kerner clobbered GOP Gov. Bill Stratton by 11 points.

* Coverage roundup…

* Poll: Democrat leads expensive race for Illinois governor: And 57 percent of voters say their choice for Congress in November will be a message for more Democrats to “check and balance” Trump, while 32 percent say it will be a message for more Republicans to help pass the president’s agenda.

* NBC/Marist poll: Pritzker up by 16, Rauner 2-to-1 unfavorable rating: The poll showed Pritzker ahead of Rauner among self-described independent voters 43 percent to 25 percent and among those with a moderate ideology, 50 percent to 25 percent. Rauner had the advantage among self-described conservatives 55 percent to 20 percent and was backed by 71 percent of supporters of Donald Trump despite the governor’s aversion to speaking about the controversial president.

* Poll: Democrat leads expensive race for Illinois governor: With the state hosting at least four competitive U.S. House races this November, the poll also shows Democrats enjoying a 14-point advantage in congressional preference, with 49 percent of voters preferring a Democratic-controlled Congress, versus 35 percent wanting Republicans in charge. Inside those numbers, Democrats lead among women (54 percent to 30 percent) and men (44 percent to 39 percent); among voters in populous Cook County (59 percent to 23 percent); among independents (43 percent to 32 percent); and among whites with college degrees (54 percent to 34 percent).

* TV news poll shows Pritzker leading Rauner by 16 points: Poll takers were also asked about how President Donald Trump is doing. Of registered voters, 56 percent said they disapproved of his performance, with 32 percent saying they approved.

  16 Comments      


Casten’s first TV ad plays defense

Wednesday, Aug 22, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

Beginning well before Labor Day, Sixth District congressional candidate Sean Casten’s campaign has placed a substantial cable TV & digital ad buy to counter false, negative ads being run by Peter Roskam and a Super PAC associated with House Speaker Paul Ryan. Today, the Casten campaign released their ad and the following statement:

“We’re proud that we’re in a position to offer voters the truth about Sean’s record as a successful green-energy entrepreneur who’s put thousands of people to work while fighting pollution and climate-change,” said Greg Bales, Campaign Manager for Sean Casten. “The ad features Charlie Bayless, one of the Directors of the Board Sean reported to, setting the record straight on Casten’s record of creating jobs and protecting his employees during their time working together for a clean energy company.”

Bales said that the new Casten ad would be seen on cable TV systems and digital platforms across the 6th District beginning on August 22nd and characterized the buy as “substantial.”

“It’s sad that Roskam has so little to say about his 25 years in public office that he can only throw mud at his challenger, and his ads are a complete distortion, as pointed out by Crain’s and the Better Government Association,” Bales said. “Now, with our first TV ad, voters will get the facts about Sean’s exemplary business record.”

So far in the general election, Roskam and his allies have spent millions of dollars on mailings, TV and digital ads. Yet, in the last two weeks, two different organizations that predict the outcomes of congressional races have moved the Illinois 6th District race from “leans Republican” to “toss up.”

* The ad

  37 Comments      


*** LIVE COVERAGE ***

Wednesday, Aug 22, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Follow along with ScribbleLive


  3 Comments      


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