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Flash poll shows no clear mayoral frontrunner

Wednesday, Sep 5, 2018

* We Ask America

Bill Daley 1.8%
Chuy Garcia 3.9%
Valerie Jarrett 6.6%
Jerry Joyce 3.2%
Lori Lightfoot 9.6%
Garry McCarthy 16.8%
Susana Mendoza 1.4%
Rick Munoz 1.4%
Toni Preckwinkle 4.6%
Paul Vallas 10.1%
Willie Wilson 15.1%

Other candidate 8.7%
Undecided 16.8%

* Approve/disapprove of Mayor Emanuel’s job performance since taking office

Approve 43.1%
Disapprove 42.0%
No opinion/Neutral 14.9%

* “Would be more likely, or less likely to support a candidate if he or she were handpicked by Mayor Emanuel as his successor?”

More likely to support 21%
Less likely to support 45%
No difference 33%

Conducted September 4, 2018 of 1,128 likely voters. MoE ±3 percent.

* From the pollster

Voters are showing preferences, although our educated guess is that few are locked in to their choices.

Garry McCarthy had the strongest showing, albeit at a 17 percent clip—followed closely by Willie Wilson and Paul Vallas.

Candidates not listed in the results were lumped together in the OTHER CANDIDATE option.

Mayor Emanuel’s job approval rating was a split decision—a phenomenon probably attributable to his announcement that he would not seek re-election. A more significant finding can be found in the question pertaining to the possibility of him backing a ‘hand-picked’ successor. Nearly 79 percent said he would either have no effect or a negative effect on whether or not voters would support him or her.

The big names added to the mix (Toni Preckwinkle, Susana Mendoza, Bill Daley) barely blipped the radar screen.

I’m told the landline/mobile phone split was right about 50/50.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

31 Comments »
  1. - Grand Avenue - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 10:34 am:

    Not including Dorothy Brown is a pretty big omission.


  2. - DaleyMail - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 10:39 am:

    Wow. Very wide open. Who from the original field will drop out?


  3. - low level - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 10:41 am:

    =not including Dorothy Brown , big omission=.

    Huh? For .007%? If that? Also she has added a name recently. Google is ur friend


  4. - low level - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 10:42 am:

    A McCarthy-Wilson run off would be something. Indeed, if that were to occur I may need my meds increased… :/


  5. - Roman - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 10:42 am:

    Is it even possible to conduct a credible poll with that many candidates?

    My first reaction is to say it’s nothing more than a reflection of name recongnition, but if it was that simple, Preckwinkle would be much higher than 4.6 percent.


  6. - Grand Avenue - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 10:43 am:

    Dorothy got 50% of the Countywide vote in 2016, and her and Willie Wilson are fighting for the same voters (the black church vote). If Dorothy Brown were listed, Willie Wilson’s support would be a lot less than 15%.


  7. - Actual Red - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 10:43 am:

    Kind of surprised to see McCarthy on top, but my guess is that he consolidates more conservative votes, while other political leanings probably have multiple candidates to choose from.


  8. - Montrose - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 10:45 am:

    All I see is that we are looking at a runoff between McCarthy and Undecided. My money is on Undecided.


  9. - Grand Avenue - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 10:46 am:

    A McCarthy-Wilson run off would guarantee Chicago elects its first Republican Mayor since Big Bill Thompson.


  10. - Feds - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 10:55 am:

    Don’t forget Dorothy Cook (AKA Brown) she will poll better now.


  11. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 10:58 am:

    Whomever has the money will be using Laquan McDonald ads against Gary. Happened under his watch.


  12. - lake county democrat - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 11:07 am:

    What fascinates me are the myriad of runoff possibilities. Two “white male corporate centrists” could easily be in the top two with a collective 30% of the vote. You could envision two DSA-types doing the same.


  13. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 11:12 am:

    I hope Pawar does not run


  14. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 11:19 am:

    ==Don’t forget Dorothy Cook Aka (Brown) ==
    Who is Dorothy Cook?


  15. - TKMH - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 11:25 am:

    ==You could envision two DSA-types doing the same.==

    Better start praying for the small businesses to stay if this happens.


  16. - Da Big Bad Wolf - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 11:37 am:

    ==A McCarthy-Wilson run off would guarantee Chicago elects its first Republican Mayor since Big Bill Thompson.==

    Both are in the Democratic Party.


  17. - SaulGoodman - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 11:39 am:

    **Both are in the Democratic Party.**

    LOL


  18. - Ducky LaMoore - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 11:56 am:

    Good lord, can you imagine a Willie Wilson Garry McCarthy runoff? I know the field will probably be whittled down and not allow them to skate by at 15%, but geez that would be something.


  19. - mana - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 12:01 pm:

    It appears the race will be between Garry McCarthy @ 16.8% & Willie Wilson @ 15.1%. Is that good or bad?


  20. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 12:02 pm:

    Susana Mendoza, State Comptroller needs to stay put.


  21. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 12:04 pm:

    ===It appears the race will be between===

    It’s September. Other candidates will likely jump in. We can’t infer much from this except nobody has instantly galvanized voters.


  22. - low level - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 12:13 pm:

    **Both are in the Democratic Party.**

    The one is the semi official Repub in the race (McCarthy) and the other has Rauner show up at his church (Wilson)

    Neither would have a clue. Yep, 2 Repubs are leading so far.


  23. - TKMH - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 12:16 pm:

    Wilson admitted to voting for Trump and Rauner, that’ll be a nonstarter the more people hear about him.


  24. - Da Big Bad Wolf - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 12:27 pm:

    What is a semi official Repub? You mean a conservative Dem? In McCarthy’s own words:

    Let me be clear: I am a proud Democrat and I do not agree with Mayor Guiliani’s political views and I certainly remain opposed to the misguided, divisive tone and policies of Donald Trump,” McCarthy said in a statement. “I worked with Mayor Guiliani nearly 20 years ago. When America was attacked on 9/11 I lost friends and colleagues and those memories stay with me to this day. I cannot say strongly enough how saddened I am to see ‘America’s Mayor’ stand with a president with whom I am diametrically opposed.”


  25. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 12:47 pm:

    Lisa Madigan. Just to troll Rauner. But she’d be good at it anyway.


  26. - Rod - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 1:43 pm:

    I have a hard time imagining that many of those indicating they support Mr. Wilson were white, I also can’t imagine many of those supporting McCarthy were African American. I have not even seen an endorsement of McCarthy from any Black police officers and Black community activists were agitating for McCarthy’s removal. The context of this election with be one of polarization based on race and class. The report published last year, “A Tale of Three Cities: The State of Racial Justice in Chicago,” by UIC’s Institute for Research on Race and Public Policy detailed the divergent conditions for blacks, Latinos and whites in the intersecting domains of housing, economics, education, justice and health.

    We are heading for trouble based on this early poll, for what it’s worth.


  27. - a drop in - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 2:16 pm:

    I’m personally pulling for Undecided. I like their platform.


  28. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 3:32 pm:

    ==What is a semi official Repub?==

    One that all Repubs in the City of Chicago will go with were the election held tomorrow despite any public stand he has. Of course that may change as the situation becomes clearer.


  29. - Saluki beancounter - Wednesday, Sep 5, 18 @ 8:16 pm:

    Where’s Gordon Lightfoot and Willie Nelson?


  30. - LilLebowskiUrbanAchiever - Thursday, Sep 6, 18 @ 12:26 am:

    What is striking is Susanna Mendoza is a statewide elected and polls at 1.4% and Toni is Cook County President and polls at 4.6%??? If that’s any where close to accurate they should stay where they are.


  31. - Blackdem - Thursday, Sep 6, 18 @ 8:22 am:

    How does it NOW include Dorothy Brown


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