* This is a bit weird, but whatevs. Numbers is numbers…
Tonight, we will launch the first of nearly 100 live NYT Upshot/Siena polls of the fight for Congress. For the first time, we'll publish the results live in real time, respondent by respondent. We start this evening in CA-48, KY-6, IL-6, MN-8, IL-12https://t.co/R4EbBmvGM9
Over the next two months, The New York Times will talk to more voters than ever before. It starts tonight, when we’ll publish the first New York Times Upshot/Siena College polls of the most competitive battlegrounds in the fight for Congress.
But there’s a twist. None of these polls are finished. One hasn’t even begun.
We’re doing it live.
For the first time, we’ll publish our poll results and display them in real time, from start to finish, respondent by respondent. No media organization has ever tried something like this, and we hope to set a new standard of transparency. You’ll see the poll results at the same time we do. You’ll see our exact assumptions about who will turn out, where we’re calling and whether someone is picking up. You’ll see what the results might have been had we made different choices.
You can watch the 6th District get polled live by clicking here and the data on the 12th is here. Scroll down and you’ll see constantly updated crosstabs.
For Chicago business, the good times may be about to end at City Hall. Bigly.
The combination of a populist wave that could capture a majority of the City Council and Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s surprise decision not to seek a third term could halt a nearly-three-decade stretch under which mayors and docile aldermen occasionally made business groan with measures like a higher minimum wage and mandatory sick leave, but more often were a willing partner in trying to lure new growth and expansion. […]
“We’re at a real crossroads,” says Jack Lavin, CEO of the Chicagoland Chamber of Commerce. “The last two mayors (Emanuel and Richard M. Daley) knew that cooperating with business gets you (economic) growth. That growing Chicago could go away.”
“There’s nothing good I see on the horizon,” says Howard Tullman, ex-CEO of the 1871 incubator and the godfather of sorts of the city’s now rapidly expanding tech community.
Emanuel in particular was “unbelievably supportive,” Tullman said. And it paid off with “tens of thousands of new jobs,” many of them at companies such as Motorola Mobility, Gogo, ADM, McDonald’s, Walgreen, Kraft-Heinz and dozens of others that moved either their regional or world headquarters here or shifted large tech operations to the city, lured by large numbers of college graduates here.
Emanuel is known as a mayor who doesn’t hesitate to pick up the phone or get on a plane to lure businesses to Chicago and help home-grown companies thrive.
“There’s definitely uncertainty when a decision as unexpected as this is announced,” said SpotHero CEO and co-founder Mark Lawrence, who praised Emanuel for touting Chicago businesses both nationally and internationally.
Emanuel’s office facilitated introductions in Israel between SpotHero and Google mapping unit Waze, leading to the recent announcement that the companies, along with the city, are installing beacons along Chicago’s 5 miles of lower roads to help drivers navigate underground when GPS fails. […]
“I think there will be some breath holding and some postponing of some decisions for sure, because I think technology businesses are no different than any other business. They want to be sure there’s a certain stability and understanding of the business environment,” Tullman said.
Chicago’s fiscal picture improved under Emanuel, said Laurence Msall, president of the non-partisan Civic Federation, which tracks the city’s finances. He cited Emanuel’s move to end the borrowing for operations and selling bonds to pay off maturing debt.
“It will remain to be seen whether the next mayor will continue to embrace these practices or slip into such financial lapses,” Msall said. “It’s difficult to know who the next mayor will be or whether they will be able to match Mayor Emanuel’s persona and dedication to economic development. But many of the structural improvements that Mayor Emanuel can rightfully take credit for will continue beyond his administration.”
An adviser close to Emanuel said he thinks the announcement was made now so that candidates more to the mayor’s liking still had enough time to enter the race
But that’s not the only big question for real estate investors as Emanuel heads for the exit. Developers now face uncertainty from a wide-open field of candidates to replace him and are left to wonder whether the city’s next mayor will be as friendly to them as its departing one.
The prospect of rent control could instill fear into investors that have made big bets on the city’s booming apartment market, while office landlords are about to lose one of the key pitchmen for the plethora of companies that have moved to the city and filled their spaces.
Then there’s the cloud over what Emanuel’s departure will mean for a series of large-scale development projects that are in the works, many of which were accelerated as prospective destinations for e-commerce giant Amazon as the Seattle-based company searches for a second headquarters location.
Emanuel’s successor will face landscape-changing decisions about the 53-acre Lincoln Yards project that developer Sterling Bay has proposed to completely redraw the North Branch of the Chicago River between Lincoln Park and Bucktown. Other tough calls will need to be made about the 78, Related Midwest’s 62-acre proposal along the river just south of the Loop, as well as the continued redevelopment of the Fulton Market District.
* Related…
* Exit Rahm: Emanuel’s successes are also less impressive than they might first appear. Chicago’s economic turnaround was part of a national boom. Other American cities have been rallying economically, too, and often at a faster rate. Tech is growing all over, and Chicago hasn’t cracked the elite club in venture-capital investing, remaining significantly behind the big four coastal centers (the Bay Area, Los Angeles, New York, and Boston). And unlike the other largest American cities, Chicago continues to see its population fall, as blacks flee in droves and Mexican immigration dries up.
* Mayor 1% Rahm Emanuel Will Not Be Missed in Chicago: But in the Windy City, he will always be remembered by many as Mayor 1%, symbolizing the arrogance and impatience of those who would shape society to celebrate entitlement, fame and wealth.
* Rahm Emanuel denies Chicago is a ‘tale of two cities’: “No world-class global city has a failing central business district. It is not in our interest as a city to pit one side of the city against another. Our challenge is to make that central business district work for all parts of…Chicago,” Emanuel said.
Members of the Illinois Republican State Central Committee voted Thursday to impose term limits on committee members. […]
Rodney Davis, the GOP’s interim executive director, said the term limit will take effect in 2014 — the next year members of the state central committee are up for selection. The party has one member from each congressional district, and each of those people appoints a deputy member.
* But Davis’ statement was not accurate. From the Illinois Republican Party’s bylaws ..
No member of the State Central Committee; deputy member of the State Central Committee; National Committeeman or Committeewoman; or State Chairman shall serve more than eight (8) consecutive years in the same office. This section is effective on January 1, 2015 but shall not apply to terms that are the result of vacancies or terms that have commenced prior to the effective date.
It would have been easy to make that section accurately reflect what the State GOP promised the public back in 2011, i.e. that the clock on the 8 years would start running in 2014. But instead, the provision was written to make the effective date January 1, 2015, several months after yet another term for the office had already commenced.
In other words, they don’t apply to members elected in 2014; they apply to members who were elected this year, after the primary. […]
[ILGOP executive director Travis Sterling] said it appears most members of the central committee who started terms this spring can serve to 2026 — and so can Chairman TIM SCHNEIDER. As for Porter and DeMonte, he said, each got new four-year terms in 2016 at the state convention, so they can serve through 2024. […]
I asked Davis about this, and he didn’t recall specifics and referred me to the party, where Sterling provided the details.
Just hours after we reported here that the state comptroller was among those on the list to possibly run for mayor, Mendoza took the stage for a City Club luncheon. “There’s a been a big development for me and for others in Chicago,” she told the hushed crowd. “It was a huge gut check for me. It was pretty emotional. In hindsight I guess I should have seen it coming. I thought I was prepared, but when it happened I just kind of lost it.” She paused. “My husband and I dropped our son off for his first day of kindergarten.” The crowd roared, expecting, of course, an announcement about her possible mayoral ambitions.
Mendoza went on to talk about her work as comptroller, explain Illinois’ budget mess and how she’s worked to bring about government and financial transparency. During the Q&A and later with reporters, Mendoza ducked questions about whether she’ll run for mayor. “I’m not thinking about mayor right now,” she said, adding her focus is on running for comptroller.
A possible scenario if Mendoza wants the mayor job: She keeps running for comptroller and wins re-election Nov. 6. Then (if J.B. Pritzker also wins) Mendoza has three weeks to gather signatures to run for mayor. If she were to win the mayor’s race, then Pritzker would appoint her replacement. If she loses, she’s still comptroller. Lots of ifs.
After a speech to the City Club of Chicago on Wednesday, the first-term Democratic comptroller said she was “fielding a lot of calls yesterday.” She did not say whether she’d join the crowded mayoral field, which is expected to grow between now and November when candidacy papers need to be filed.
“I’m not thinking about mayor right now,” she said. “I’m thinking about the next 62 days. … I think I would be great at any job I do, and I would never run for an office if I don’t think I’m the best person for that office. Right now I’m running for comptroller.”
“These next 62 days are no joke. I mean this is what it’s about. And then, you know, time will …” Mendoza said, pausing. “I don’t even want to talk about the mayor’s race, frankly, until after November.”
Asked later if she was ruling out a mayoral bid, Mendoza didn’t answer directly, again saying she is focused on her re-election campaign.
“In an attempt to deceive voters, Susana Mendoza is hoping to dodge questions about a Chicago Mayoral bid until after Illinoisans have cast their vote for Comptroller in November,” Illinois Republican Party Executive Director Travis Sterling said. “Illinoisans deserve the full truth when they head to the ballot box, and Mendoza has made it clear that she is not committed to four years as Illinois’ Comptroller.”
The Chicago Teachers Union has a new president and vice president.
Jesse Sharkey has officially taken over the labor group’s top post for the time being, following a Wednesday vote from the union’s governing body. The new vice president is Stacy Davis Gates, formerly the union’s political director.
The shift in leadership follows the retirement of former CTU President Karen Lewis, who announced her departure in June amid continued health problems. That cleared the way for Sharkey’s formal takeover of the union’s top job and Davis Gates’ nomination to replace him as second-in-command.
Both leaders will be running for office again soon, as union officers are expected to face some competition in an election by the entire CTU membership next year.
Sharkey and Bruce Rauner appeared on WTTW together after the 2012 teachers’ strike and had a memorable debate. Click here to watch it. Explains a lot about both men.
In concert with J.B. Pritzker’s campaign, a $1 million voter registration program was launched. It will target people who traditionally vote Democrat but often do not have the same ballot access as others. These groups include transient workers, college students, and people of color. There could not be a more important time to make these investments as the face of our party rapidly changes.
In addition to our voter registration initiative, the Party is working with the Pritzker campaign to execute a massive vote-by-mail program, targeting nearly two million eligible voters to ensure broader access and engagement during the traditional “drop-off” (non-presidential) midterm election year.
We’re also facilitating increased data sharing from the top of the ticket to the bottom, giving down-ballot races access to additional data from which they can produce more sophisticated targeting and better coordinate their field operations.
Mitchell also recently hired Sam Salustro away from the Democratic Governors Association. Salustro will be the party’s new director of statewide communications.
…Adding… Mitchell announced the voter registration program when he was appointed, but it’s now underway.
* Usually when governors campaign for legislative candidates, they mainly stick to the positives of the candidates they want to see elected. Gov. Rauner, however, is not a usual governor and this is not a usual state. Here’s what he had to say yesterday when making an appearance for the Republican opponent of Rep. Sue Scherer (D-Decatur)…
Nobody in central Illinois should vote for Sue Scherer. She has refused to sign the Peoples Pledge.
* But it’s really not so much about Scherer or her GOP opponent Herman Senor as it is Speaker Madigan…
Rauner said Madigan has been entrenched in Illinois politics for decades and uses political power and money to “buy votes” in his district, keeping him eligible to be speaker of the Illinois House.
“And that culture of corruption from Chicago has infiltrated our state government for decades under Mike Madigan,” Rauner said. “We need to throw off that yoke of corruption and get new leadership, fresh ideas.”
“When we collected over 600,000 signatures so you could get term limits on the ballot, so you could vote term limits up or down five years ago, Mike Madigan and his funders — (JB) Pritzker and the Chicago political machine — they sued us in state court, and they won in state court,” Rauner said.
Rauner was not interested in pledges when a pro-choice group asked him to sign one promising to uphold the tenets of an abortion bill he signed. This is different, he says, because he’s trying to change the Constitution to force term limits.
Governor Bruce Rauner is continuing to push for term limits… and for anyone other than Mike Madigan to be speaker of the Illinois House. Rauner joined Republican legislative candidates in Springfield to sign what he calls the People’s Pledge.
Steve Brown, spokesman for Madigan, said later the pledge sounds similar to the “magic formula” that Rauner has been using for months, leaving him 16 points behind his Democratic opponent for governor, J.B. Pritzker, in a recent poll.
“It’s just another low-road smear attempt that’s apparently failing him,” Brown said.
* But, here’s the thing. I watched and read a lot of coverage of yesterday’s “People’s Pledge” event and the one thing conspicuously missing from almost all the stories was Scherer’s Republican opponent. The SJ-R’s piece mentioned in passing (deep in the story) that he attended the event. WCIA was the only outlet that gave him significant coverage.
And if you watch the raw video, you’ll see that when Rauner attacked Rep. Scherer he didn’t even mention Senor’s name. I think the governor only said Senor’s name once - when he introduced all the attendees.
Attorney General Lisa Madigan today announced her office and the City of Chicago agreed to a draft provision in the draft consent decree for reform of the Chicago Police Department (CPD) that requires Chicago police officers to report when they point a firearm at a person.
Under the agreement, beginning in July 2019, (1) Chicago police officers must report when they point their firearm at a person, (2) an officer’s immediate supervisor must be notified each time the pointing of a firearm is reported (3) once notified, CPD supervisors must then review the incident to ensure that the officer followed CPD policy and any misconduct is addressed, and (4) beginning in January 2020, the independent monitor will review any instances in which an officer points a firearm and recommend any changes to the way the incidents are documented.
In addition to review by the officer’s supervisor, the agreement requires CPD headquarters to review and audit all incidents involving an officer pointing a firearm at a person, including documentation and information collected during the stop. Headquarters’ reviews of pointing incidents must be completed within 30 days and must:
* identify whether the pointing of the firearm at a person allegedly violated CPD policy;
* identify any patterns in such occurrences and, to the extent necessary, ensure that any concerns are addressed; and
* identify any tactical, equipment, training, or policy concerns and, to the extent necessary, ensure that the concerns are addressed.
At the conclusion of the review, CPD must make appropriate referrals for misconduct investigations or other corrective actions for alleged violations of CPD policy. CPD headquarters must also issue a written notification to the supervisor of its findings and include whether any further actions were taken or required.
Under the agreement, after each incident when an officer has pointed a firearm, officers must radio the information about pointing their firearms to the city’s Office of Emergency Management and Communications (OEMC). The information will be electronically linked with corresponding police department reports and body-worn camera recordings from the same incident, all of which must be retained and accessible to the officer’s supervisor, be reviewed by the Department, and available to the independent monitor.
The agreement also requires that by January 1, 2019, CPD must instruct officers on weapons discipline and when officers should and should not point a firearm at a person. New training on when an officer points a firearm must be incorporated in the annual use of force training required under the draft consent decree in 2019. Also under the agreement, CPD will clarify in its policy that officers will only point a firearm at a person when it is objectively reasonable to do so.
Beginning in 2020, the independent monitor annually will assesses instances in which an officer points a firearm at a person to determine whether changes to CPD policy, training, practice or supervision are necessary and to recommend any changes to the process of documenting, reviewing, and analyzing these occurrences.
“Knowing when police officers point their guns at someone will allow CPD to improve officer and community safety,” Madigan said. “I believe this is critical in achieving true reform of the Chicago Police Department.”
* Press release from Sen. Kwame Raoul…
“As the consent decree moves closer to its final form, I am encouraged by the prospects for meaningful and sustainable change. The latest point of agreement is an important advance, one that acknowledges the seriousness of the CPD’s need to earn the trust of the people it polices,” said state Senator Kwame Raoul.
“This difficult and necessary work and the public participation informing it were made possible by Attorney General Lisa Madigan’s decision to step up and take responsibility for the reform process when the Department of Justice stepped back from its duty to enforce civil rights laws. State attorneys general are often the last line of defense, and I am ready to step up whenever needed.
“I look forward as attorney general to building on these positive steps, implementing and monitoring the consent decree to bring about lasting reform.”
…Adding… Karen Sheley, Director, Police Practices Project, ACLU of Illinois…
Last night’s filing announcing the agreement reached about recording each time a Chicago police officer points a weapon at someone is welcome news. The City heeded recent public demands supporting this common-sense proposal. The City should also adopt the other demands that the ACLU and our clients have raised in our detailed response to their draft decree. The decree they file in court must be revised to ensure the City has an effective crisis intervention program, addresses police interactions with people with disabilities, and makes the reform plans enforceable and transparent.
Today, Erika Harold’s campaign for Attorney General unveiled RaoulMadigan.com to highlight Kwame Raoul’s and Mike Madigan’s failed fourteen-year partnership in Springfield.
The website will detail at-length the many times Raoul and Madigan worked together to protect their power, line their pockets, and push failed policies, such as:
* Gerrymandering legislative districts
* Voting to raise their own pay
* Skipping pension payments
* Passing unbalanced budgets
* Pushing tax hikes
Paid digital advertising will educate voters on the failed Raoul-Madigan record by directing them to the website.
State Senator Kwame Raoul. House Speaker Mike Madigan. Two career politicians who share the same failed agenda. They might be in separate chambers in the General Assembly, but make no mistake - Raoul and Madigan have worked hand-in-hand over the last fourteen years, pushing policies that have run our state into the ground.
Since 2005, Kwame Raoul and Mike Madigan have worked together to gerrymander legislative districts, skip pension payments, push tax hikes, pass unbalanced budgets, and even vote to raise their own pay.
And when allegations of patronage, sexual harassment, and heavy-handed politics over the years shook Mike Madigan’s political organization, Illinois voters heard nothing from Kwame Raoul. Why? Because he puts the political class and his own personal ambition before the people of Illinois.
Fourteen years of working with Mike Madigan in Springfield have revealed Kwame Raoul for who he is - just another career politician who’s turned his back on us.
Raoul called her attempt to link him to Madigan as carrying out “the lines handed” to her by Rauner in trying to repeat “that broken record (heard) over and over again in the gubernatorial campaign.”
“It’s not ironic that she was given $1 million a couple of weeks ago from Bruce Rauner and introduced herself in a general campaign with an ad comparing me to Mike Madigan,” Raoul told reporters.
“My name is Kwame Raoul. My last name is not Madigan. I’ve never served in the House of Representatives. Mike Madigan did not ask me to run for attorney general. Mike Madigan did not support me in the primary for attorney general. I was not recruited by anybody to run for attorney general like my opponent was,” Raoul said.
…Adding… From Aviva Bowen at the Raoul campaign…
Anything not to talk about Erika’s extreme views on marriage equality or a woman’s right to choose, I guess.
Harold is holding a fundraiser with Rep. Peter Breen tonight. Breen is currently battling in court with Attorney General Lisa Madigan over HB40.
Yesterday, the Casten campaign released their second ad of the general election, highlighting Sean Casten’s background as a clean energy entrepreneur creating jobs in the Sixth Congressional District. Casten released the following statement:
“I am proud of my background creating hundreds of jobs while fighting climate change,” said Casten. “Peter Roskam has spent 25 years in public office, but can’t run on his own reputation. Instead, his ads just resort to throwing mud and distorting my record. Now, thanks to over 75,000 individual donors we can share the truth about my record of protecting our environment and putting people to work.”
The campaign said the new Casten ad would be seen on TV systems and digital platforms across the 6th District, and that the campaign would continue to communicate through the rest of the election.
So far in the general election, Roskam and his allies have spent millions of dollars on mailings, TV and digital ads. Despite that investment, three different organizations that predict the outcomes of congressional races have moved the Illinois 6th District race from “leans Republican” to “toss up” and a “DEM gain.”
Congressional Leadership Fund (@CLFSuperPAC), the super PAC endorsed by House Republican leadership, today released a new ad, “Fraud,” in Illinois’ 6th Congressional District. The ad highlights Sean Casten’s business record that is clouded by scandal and allegations of fraud. The ad will run on television in the Chicago media market and on digital platforms throughout the district.
“Sean Casten’s business record is clouded by scandal and allegations of fraud, he was even sued by investors for mismanagement,” said Michael Byerly, CLF spokesman. “Casten has spent his business career profiting from insider deals, spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on lobbyists, and taking millions of dollars in corporate welfare. Casten talks about cleaning up Washington, but he’s just another shady Madigan-machine politician who would make Washington worse.”
In addition to the ad campaign, CLF previously opened a field office in Illinois’ 6th Congressional District. Each CLF field office is supported by a full-time staffer and hundreds of interns and volunteers who engage with voters on a daily basis through hyper-targeted phone banking and door-to-door canvassing.
* As we discussed months ago, most of Maryann Loncar’s allegations against Rep. Lou Lang (D-Skokie) were full of holes. Her “bribery” claim had changed (and grown) over the years, but was easily disproved. Her claim that Lang had killed legislation because of her involvement was flatly denied by others working on the bill. Her ex-husband denied an allegation that Lang had reached out to him with an offer to help him “bury” Loncar. After Rep. Jeanne Ives told a reporter that Loncar wouldn’t be making sexual harassment allegations, Loncar went on Dan Proft’s radio show the morning of her press conference…
Proft asked her whether the still-unnamed legislator had said if she wouldn’t “play ball, and play ball means of a sexual nature, then you’re not going to get what you want.”
“In every nature,” Loncar replied. “It all starts in Springfield of a sexual nature if you’re female. All of it.”
However, when her statement to Proft was read back to her later that day by my associate Hannah Meisel, Loncar admitted Lang had made no such demand.
Loncar then claimed at her subsequent Statehouse press conference, “I was harassed. I was intimidated. I was humiliated.”
* But now the Legislative Inspector General has cleared Lang of all claims, including harassment…
But in a report issued Wednesday, Julie Porter, the acting legislative inspector general, wrote that there is not enough evidence to support Loncar’s claims and that the matter is now closed.
She also wrote in an email to Lang that she found Loncar’s allegations “unfounded.”
“Given her unwillingness to speak to me, and taking her descriptions and those of her colleague at face value, I do not have sufficient evidence to support a conclusion that such occurrences, if they even happened, constituted sexual harassment,” Porter wrote.
Lang said in a statement issued Wednesday that “the allegations were absurd and false and remain so today.
“Therefore, I welcome the Inspector General’s conclusion that completely dismisses the allegations as ‘unfounded,’” Lang wrote. “As far as I’m concerned, I have been vindicated and this matter is now closed.”
“It is ridiculous to think that any person who feels victimized by a member of the House or Senate would be consoled to reveal their plight to a hand-picked I.G. appointed by the Speaker of House,” Loncar said in the statement.
“What I have seen played out since my press conference confirms everything I assumed about having a Legislative Inspector General appointed by the Speaker of the House: it is a joke,” her statement read. “The joke is on the victims. The joke is on the Illinois taxpayers.”
Today, the Rauner campaign is launching a new TV ad featuring Diana Rauner titled “This Election is a Choice.”
In the ad, Diana directly addresses Illinois voters about the stakes of this election. She outlines the clear choice voters face in November: continue fighting for reform with Governor Rauner or go back to the same policies that have hurt Illinois for decades with JB Pritzker and Mike Madigan.
I’m Diana Rauner. Bruce ran for governor to try and save our state. It hasn’t been easy, but nothing important ever is. Bruce took on the big problems: education funding reform, Medicaid reform, criminal justice reform. He stopped the insanity and delivered. But 40 years of mismanagement can’t be turned around in 4 years. This election is a choice. Do we keep moving towards reform, or go back to the status quo that got us into this mess?
…Adding… Jake pulls up her 2014 ad…
Bruce Rauner's 2018 campaign released an ad today featuring his wife. Here's a look back at Rauner's first 2014 ad featuring Diana (released 10/16/14)#twill#ilgovpic.twitter.com/flKZmecc3b
In featuring Diana Rauner, the Rauner campaign is acknowledging the need to appeal to female voters, particularly socially moderate women in the traditionally GOP suburbs, in his re-election contest with Democrat J.B. Pritzker.
At the same time, the governor, himself, has been spending time campaigning Downstate to try to unify a socially conservative GOP base unhappy with his signature on laws expanding abortion, immigrant and gay rights. […]
Diana Rauner’s script also is noteworthy.
By talking about education, Medicaid and criminal justice, she’s talking about issues of interest to those moderate suburban women without touching on the more controversial issues surrounding the governor — such as abortion rights — that could anger conservatives.
