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Ipsos poll: Pritzker up by 20

Wednesday, Oct 10, 2018

* Thanks to a commenter for pointing this one out

Today, Ipsos released new election data in partnership with Reuters and the University of Virginia Center for Politics, showing that Democrat J. B. Pritzker (50%) holds a double-digit lead over Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner (30%) in the Illinois race for Governor. Among likely voters, 62% view both Pritzker and Rauner as “traditional” politicians.

The top issues in determining the vote in Illinois are the economy (16%) and healthcare (15%). On the issue of the economy, likely voters are tied on whether they think Democrats (40%) or Republicans (38%) have the better policy. On the issue of healthcare, however, 53% of likely voters feel that Democrats have the better policy as opposed to 27% who feel that Republicans have the better policy.

Some of this data is old. The poll was taken September 27 through October 5. 968 likely voters

57 percent of likely voters say they prefer a generic Democratic congressional candidate while 35 percent prefer a Republican. 62 percent disapprove of President Trump’s job performance while just 37 percent approve.

68 percent say they are “very motivated” to vote for a candidate who would “defend laws that protect healthcare for people with pre -existing conditions,” while 25 percent say are “somewhat motivated.” Whew.

While Gov. Bruce Rauner is turning up the heat on illegal immigration this week, just 27 percent say they are “very motivated” to vote for a candidate who would “make it a priority to deport more illegal immigrants from the US.”

Just 23 percent say they are “very motivated” to vote for a candidate who will support President Trump, while 49 percent say they are “very motivated” to vote for a candidate who will oppose President Trump.

Click here for more. And click here for xtabs.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

18 Comments »
  1. - slow down - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 10:11 am:

    Stating the obvious, it’s hard to see how Rauner can win with numbers like these just a few weeks away from the election.

    Unable to provide a coherent rationale for a second term, his campaign has been almost entirely about making Pritzker un-electable. That clearly has failed and there simply isn’t enough time to change this reality.

    It may be the first time in Rauner’s adult life that he won’t be able to bully his way to his desired result.


  2. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 10:12 am:

    Rauner stuck at that 30% plateau… Rauner still unlikable… Rauner still in a state with Trump terribly under water…

    Pritzker leads 16-22%… Rauner is so terribly unlikable… why would someone choose Rauner… who by candidate Rauner’s measure… is a failure?


  3. - Real - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 10:16 am:

    So many different polls with Rauner losing by double digits. Great way to kick GovJunk out of office.


  4. - Nick Name - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 10:19 am:

    Pritzker has promised to make Illinois a single-payer state, so 53 percent who believe Dems have the better health care policy is pretty amazing.


  5. - Steve - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 10:19 am:

    It appears that JB has staying power. These are really good numbers for a challenger . Claiming JB hasn’t paid enough in taxes is not a winning issue, considering few have paid more in taxes then him. Anyway, Rauner will be fortunate if he can lose by 12%


  6. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 10:22 am:

    The string of publicly released polls has been remarkably consistent.

    Dems better crank up the GOTV to guard against complacency.


  7. - Real - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 10:22 am:

    Rauner is going to get one of those term limits he couldn’t stop talking about. In fact, the last few weeks and even at the Sun-times editorial debate Rauner has all of a sudden dropped his form of term limits as a major talking point. Lol


  8. - Roman - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 10:25 am:

    Just don’t see the strategic advantage for Rauner to launch the anti-immigrant screed. He’s taking the exact opposite rhetorical tone that got him elected four years ago. And he didn’t go this far right during the primary, when it would have actually made some political sense.

    The only logical explanation is his given up on taking any professional political advice and is going to say exactly what he thinks.


  9. - Cheryl44 - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 10:33 am:

    I’m surprised he’s not just screaming “Lock her up!”


  10. - Nacho - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 10:43 am:

    ==Just don’t see the strategic advantage for Rauner to launch the anti-immigrant screed. He’s taking the exact opposite rhetorical tone that got him elected four years ago. And he didn’t go this far right during the primary, when it would have actually made some political sense.==

    Much like his two-faced act on HB 40, it shows just how terrible his political instincts are. The Trumpers aren’t going to forget the Trust Act so all this accomplishes is burning any goodwill he had built up with liberals and moderates by signing it.


  11. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 10:46 am:

    - Nacho -

    The real question to your keen observation is…

    “Who is the Rauner constituency?”

    When you’re an incumbent down 16-22 points in polling, obviously under water too…

    … you have no constituency.


  12. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 11:08 am:

    ==Pritzker has promised to make Illinois a single-payer state==

    No, he hasn’t.


  13. - Pick a Name - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 11:12 am:

    10% Willy, not 16% or 20% or 22%.

    Could be less than 10%. JB will win and boy does the fun start.


  14. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 11:15 am:

    - Pick a Name -

    You’re that person at the end of the bar that’s either yelling “I know”… or betting with people so others will pay attention to them.

    I don’t know what makes you think I’d engage in a bet with you, since I haven’t engaged in betting with… anyone.

    “This is only an exhibition. This is not a competition. Please, no wagering.”


  15. - Anon0091 - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 11:20 am:

    “==Pritzker has promised to make Illinois a single-payer state==

    No, he hasn’t.”

    Absolutely right. What he has promised is to create a public option to allow people to buy into the state’s Medicaid program. Not give them Medicaid, but allow them to buy in. It will cost no state money and it will give more people access. It’s something I wished Obama hadn’t given up on when he was negotiating against himself on the ACA.

    And yea, these poll results are remarkably consistent. Also, it’s worth noting that this is the first poll that shows Pritzker at 50.


  16. - Ike - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 11:27 am:

    Cheryl44- or, “lock Madigan up” /s


  17. - @misterjayem - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 12:02 pm:

    “68 percent say they are “very motivated” to vote for a candidate who would “defend laws that protect healthcare for people with pre -existing conditions,” while 25 percent say are “somewhat motivated.” Whew.

    This explains the theme of the anti-Roskam ads dominating my Hulu feed.

    – MrJM


  18. - Dudeman - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 1:30 pm:

    Rauner does not have the conservative base after approving medicare funded abortion and not really getting the fiscal conservatism moved forward at all. Just no budget. So who supports him? The moderate Republicans and those that can’t stomach a Democrat that will tax the state into the middle ages. Most of those people are leaving in droves. So that leaves Pritzker in the win column. We’ll see how long blaming Rauner’s 4 years can fly after the election and the fiscal bomb that will inevitably blow up the budget more than it already is.


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