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NYT poll has Hultgren up by 4

Wednesday, Oct 10, 2018

* NY Times poll of 501 respondents conducted October 3-8

Randy Hultgren 47%
Lauren Underwood 43%
Undecided 10%

* Neither candidate is very well known

Hultgren 31% favorable rating; 27% unfavorable; 42% don’t know
Underwood: 31% favorable rating; 14% unfavorable; 55% don’t know

Hultgren has been in Congress since 2011 and 42 percent of his district couldn’t pick him out of a lineup? Not good.

* More

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? 46% Approve; 49% Disapprove; 5% Don’t know

Would you prefer Republicans to retain control of the House of Representatives or would you prefer Democrats to take control? 50% Reps. keep House; 43% Dems. take House; 7% Don’t know

Do you support or oppose Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the United States Supreme Court? 51% Support; 45% Oppose; 5% Don’t know

As you may know, Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh has been accused of committing sexual assault when he was a teenager. Would you say you believe the allegations, you do not believe the allegations, or you simply are unable to come to a conclusion? 32% Believe; 36% Do not believe; 32% Don’t know

Do you support electing more people who describe themselves as feminists? 50% Support; 35% Oppose; 15% Don’t know

Is it important to elect more women to public office? 77% Agree; 14% Disagree; 9% Don’t know

As you think about your member of Congress, would you prefer your representative to support President Trump and his agenda, or to serve as a check on the president and his agenda? 43% Support; 51% Check; 6% Don’t know

The partisan split on the poll was 25 percent Democrat, 34 percent Republican, 39 percent independent and 1 percent other.

President Donald Trump won this district by almost 4 points two years ago. Sen. Mark Kirk won it by 8. Comptroller Leslie Munger won it by 21. Hultgren won it by almost 19. Times change.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

21 Comments »
  1. - Roman - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 9:57 am:

    == Hultgren has been in Congress since 2011 and 42 percent of his district couldn’t pick him out of a lineup? Not good. ==

    So true. That gives him little margin of error against the national trend.


  2. - Iggy - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 9:57 am:

    Live in this district, If you drive North to south on the western boundary of the district you will see Hultgren sign after Hultgren sign. He is the yard sign king, but yet he has zero visibility with folks in the area. It’s disappointing how little this guy has done to bolster his value to the district. If he does manage to squeak this one out, I think a legitimate primary opponent is in order for this one.


  3. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 10:01 am:

    === I think a legitimate primary opponent is in order for this one.===

    Why? Has he not voted against healthcare and for taxes? Hasn’t he enabled the worst excesses of the GOP House? Is he not conservative enough for the district?


  4. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 10:02 am:

    Sorry, for tax cuts.


  5. - Roman - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 10:11 am:

    The old adage about Americans hating Congress but liking their own Congressman doesn’t help Hultgren if his constituents don’t know who he is.


  6. - Da Big Bad Wolf - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 10:12 am:

    In the 14th district, 50% want the Republicans to keep the House, and 43% want the Democrats to get the House, yet 51% want their representative to act as a check on Trump and 43% want their representative to support Trump.
    That is so weird.


  7. - Fav Human - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 10:12 am:

    I’ve seen tons of Underwood ads the last two weeks. Like non stop, it seems.


  8. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 10:18 am:

    –Times change.–

    A black female Dem giving a GOP incumbent a run for his money in the far outer ring of suburbs and cornfields is certainly evidence of that.

    FWIW, here’s how Ballotpedia breaks down the demos in the 14th:

    Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+5
    U.S. Census Bureau (2010 data)
    Population: 718,232
    Gender: 50.2% Male, 49.8% Female
    Race[1]: 85.8% White, 2.9% Black, 3.8% Asian
    Ethnicity: 12.2% Hispanic
    Unemployment: 8.9%
    Median household income
    $77,758
    High school graduation rate
    92.3%
    College graduation rate
    37.3%


  9. - Annoyance - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 10:31 am:

    SALT : a tax on a tax : the inflation number next week will be stunning: Ford layoffs proposal of 12% : tariff, the permanent tax bill, the polls are meaningless right now.

    Trump’s tax law passed last year, Republicans in many high-tax districts faced a revolt over a key provision — a $10,000 cap on the federal deduction for state and local taxes, known as SALT.

    The limit proved so toxic..
    The furor over the tax law seemed to ebb, but last week the House voted to make the tax overhaul permanent. PERMANENT


  10. - JB13 - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 10:31 am:

    If Trump is 46 percent favorable and more than half want the GOP to keep Congress, Hultgren will win again. IF those numbers are correct. It would probably behoove Hultgren to try to make Underwood answer if she would vote to i.peach Kavanaugh, as a number of Democrats say they wish to do.


  11. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 11:02 am:

    “Sorry, but I like our tax cuts, and economics, our low unemployment rates, and our security more than I dislike the president”, says many voters.


  12. - Precinct Captain - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 11:11 am:

    Not a shock coming on the heels of the NRCC needing to bail out Hultgren.


  13. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 11:56 am:

    VMan, do you have a home mortgage? Pay property taxes?

    If so, be sure to tell us all about your “tax cut” after you fill out your Schedule A next year.


  14. - Deadbeat Conservative - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 12:00 pm:

    “Sorry, but I like our tax cuts, and economics, our low unemployment rates, and our security more than I dislike the president”,

    Who cares about the debt, blatant Trump official self dealing, and the defense racket. We’ll let the dems clean it up later.


  15. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 12:49 pm:

    VanillaMan, how’s that Janus thing working out?


  16. - A guy - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 1:39 pm:

    That’s a very odd district. Distinctly suburban on the east, distinctly rural just about everywhere else. Hultgren doesn’t make you forget Dirksen, but he’s serviceable for the unique area and the voters will likely revert to voting patterns that give him a win. On the east side, they’re letting him twist in the wind a little first.


  17. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 1:58 pm:

    ==how’s that Janus thing working out?==

    The failure who rode it into the SC is losing his job next month.


  18. - Da Big Bad Wolf - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 3:10 pm:

    ==If so, be sure to tell us all about your “tax cut” after you fill out your Schedule A next year.==

    You’re not kidding. Had to change my W-4 to 0 and have them take out extra money after doing the IRS withholding calculator earlier this year. All this to add trillions to the deficit.

    But it gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling knowing Jeff Bezos can by another yacht. Maybe he’ll call it the S.S. Depends, after the product that keeps his employees from friviously wasting the company time.


  19. - Da Big Bad Wolf - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 5:11 pm:

    Dow dropped 832 points today after of week of dropping. Those tarriffs are really fixing things.


  20. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Oct 10, 18 @ 7:06 pm:

    ==says many voters.==

    Many? Really? Who are those “many” voters. Because it sure isn’t “many” in Illinois.


  21. - Jerry - Thursday, Oct 11, 18 @ 8:42 am:

    ” and 42 percent of his district couldn’t pick him out of a lineup? Not good.” That is what happens when you don’t hold town hall meetings and are afraid to meet with your constituents, except in small, controlled “friendly” groups of five or less. People don’t know who you are.


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