Question of the day
Tuesday, Oct 23, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Background is here if you need it. Tina Sfondeles and Mark Brown…
Rauner later defended the ad after an event at Chicago Hope Academy, 2189 W. Bowler St., where he ended his visit by praying with students. But the governor declined to repeat the swear word himself, opting to substitute “screwed.”
“I can say very clearly that Pritzker in office with Madigan, the people of Illinois are abused, or screwed, to use that word. I’ll use that word,” the governor said, predicting “massive tax hikes, massive increases in corruption and massive job losses.”
He also denied the commercial has an anti-gay message, saying he supports same sex marriage and has been “very supportive of the LGBTQ community as governor.”
* Rick Pearson tried hard to pin him down…
PEARSON: “A character in your new TV ad playing a [inaudible] says that basically the election of JB Pritzker, working with Mike Madigan, that Illinois is F’ed and he uses the word “F’ed.” Can you stand before us today, with this character that your campaign is paying for, and tell us, using the word that the character uses, that that’s the case in Illinois.”
RAUNER: “I can say very clearly that Pritzker in office with Madigan, the people of Illinois are abused. They’re screwed, to use that word, I’ll use that word.”
PEARSON: Why won’t you use the word that’s in the ad that you’re paying for?
RAUNER: “I use my own words. My words are: we are in huge trouble. Turn out the lights in the state of Illinois to Pritzker and Madigan getting power together— massive tax hikes, massive increase in corruption and self-dealing, and massive job losses. We’ve already been losing businesses, too many businesses for decades. The stream of businesses that have been leaving Illinois will turn into a flood if Pritzker and Madigan are in power together.”
PEARSON: “Why won’t you use the word that the character uses of the person you’re paying in that ad to tell that to the people of Illinois? It’s your campaign. Your campaign is saying, ‘Illinois is F’ed.’ Why won’t you use the word?”
RAUNER: “I use my words for myself, and when I—”
PEARSON: “But that is your campaign. That is your words.”
RAUNER: “My word is— I’ll say this, we’re screwed. We’re screwed as the state of Illinois, if Pritzker and Madigan get power, we’ll have gerrymandered districts again after 2020 census— nightmare for our democracy. We’ll have one-power rule with more corruption and domination by Madigan’s political machine that’s been destroying our state for 35 years. We’ll have a massive income tax hike. We’ll have a new vehicle-miles tax. We’ll have $11 billion in new spending that will be in deficit again, very quickly, and we’ll have massive out-migration of businesses and families. We’re all screwed as a state if those two guys get in there. That’s clear.”
* Bernie…
“Everything in an ad is a choice,” [said Chris Mooney, who is a professor at the University of Illinois Chicago and is president of the state politics section of the American Political Science Association], including having a white man play the clergyman, having the marriage and the music.
“I do know they chose to do those things and the fact that marriage equality is still a hot issue, and the fact that the governor continues to really try to shore up his right after sort of devastation in the primary, all that suggests that maybe that’s what’s going on here,” Mooney said.
* Some other coverage…
* Rauner Campaign Drops Bleeped F-Bomb In ‘Unholy Union’ Ad Slamming Pritzker - Gay lawmaker slams Rauner for “blatant homophobia”; LGBTQ group Equality Illinois says “Our weddings are not a joke.”
* Rauner’s “Unholy Union” ad sparks a strong reaction
* Rauner Launches New Ad Featuring ‘Unholy Union’
* The Question: Does this TV ad help or hurt the Rauner campaign? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please…
bike trails
- 47th Ward - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:14 pm:
I voted no difference. To quote Dennis Green, he is who we thought he was.
OTOH, we’re not talking about Quincy, so that’s a plus for the Governor.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:15 pm:
No difference. As with most political ads a few weeks out, my only preference is for “Mommy, make it stop!”
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:15 pm:
–“Everything in an ad is a choice,” [said Chris Mooney, who is a professor at the University of Illinois Chicago and is president of the state politics section of the American Political Science Association], –
Seemingly obvious, but some on the other thread were sure having simple truths penetrate their pumpkins.
You can produce a “Pritzker/Madigan…bad” spot an infinite number of ways.
Using the analogy of two gay dudes getting married in an “unholy union” was the choice and a major part of the message.
- Roman - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:18 pm:
Hurt. The only way a Republican wins a race in blue state (particularly in a Democratic year) is to run as a moderate — in both substance and and tone. See Charlie Baker in Massachusetts, Larry Hogan in Maryland, and Bruce Rauner in 2014.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:19 pm:
Voted “No Difference”
“Why?”
Rauner is 20+ points under water, no matter who he’s running against with 14 days left.
This isn’t changing that failure Rauner is.
OTOH, Bruce and Diana Rauner with racism and homophobia as their closing arguments, that isn’t that great for either person’s brand.
- Professor - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:21 pm:
The ad is just more nonsense. Illinois deserves better.
- Centennial - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:22 pm:
Voted Hurt but was leaning no difference.
Personally, I’m annoyed that my children are going to undoubtedly hear the F while WGN news is playing in the background tomorrow morning.
On the other hand, I wasn’t going to vote for Rauner anyways.
- Grand Avenue - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:22 pm:
When did he start supporting same sex marriage?
In 2014, he refused to be pinned down on the subject and proposed a referendum on the matter.
I suppose you could say it became obvious when he officiated a gay wedding, but I don’t recall him explicitly saying it before.
- @misterjayem - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:24 pm:
“Does this TV ad help or hurt the Rauner campaign?”
While I don’t believe this ad will have any appreciable effect on his campaign, I do believe it will affect the way people view Bruce Rauner for the rest of his life.
He’s made a very, very curious choice.
– MrJM
- Moe Berg - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:24 pm:
No difference. It’s another variation on the one-trick pony message Rauner has been riding since his inauguration. The bleeped word is in poor taste, but the voters believe the man’s whole time in office has been in poor taste.
I will say his unwillingness to actually say the word in the ad he paid for again demonstrates that Rauner is a coward. A real man would say the word. But, that’s what bullies d:, hide behind others when they get called on their BS.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:25 pm:
I’ll call it a wash. Maybe Rauner had a few Log Cabin Republicans that will drop off, maybe a few Ives type will get back on the GOP bandwagon.
- Nacho - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:26 pm:
Voted “Hurt.” Kinda went back and forth between that and “no difference” due to his position being so bad regardless, but at the end of the day this ad is going to turn off people he absolutely has to win in order to be re-elected.
- DuPage Bard - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:26 pm:
Said it earlier it’s a smart ad should have been done a month ago. Trump is popular, more popular than Rauner. he needs the Trump voter not to go with Kash Jackson and Sam McCann.
He needs to make sure Dems don’t vote, he needs low turnout numbers.
- Roads Scholar - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:26 pm:
Hurts. But close to “no difference” as the BVR campaign may already have plumbed the depths of support for a sitting Governor.
- Northsider - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:27 pm:
47th nailed it.
Rauner was toast before the ad, he’s still toast. Arrivederci, “Governor.”
- Dudeman - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:28 pm:
This will help him lose by only 10% now.Some of the conservatives will vote for him just to avoid the coming democrat-apocolypse for Illinois. But most conservatives don’t like him anyway. So he gained a few conservatives maybe. You Libs are stoned to think it hurt him with conservatives.
- Wensicia - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:28 pm:
You don’t help yourself by using profanity or standing next to Trump. Rauner comes across as bitter and hateful, not a positive alternative. He’s hurting himself.
- LeadingInDecatur - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:30 pm:
so very tired of “broken” “turn the lights out” and “I’ve succeeded at everything I’ve ever done” Who wants to have a beer with that guy?
I’m tired of hyperbolic, qualitative descriptors like corrupt, or screwed. I’m tired of name-calling, blaming others, and magical thinking about taxes and budgets.
It’s the real world. Things cost money. Tax breaks never have paid for themselves and never will.
Tired of those who are raking it in complaining about the pay, pensions, retirement age, health benefits of those just getting by.
Voting early…
- Nick - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:32 pm:
No difference. TV ads aren’t going to make much of any difference these days, it’s just throwing money into a pit.
Though the Ad itself is honestly sort of amazing. Not necessarily in a good way, but it’s definitely unique.
- Because I said so.... - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:33 pm:
Voted hurt. I think it has a strong chance of really offending some older voters.
- Pseudonymous - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:34 pm:
I voted “help.” It’s not like he can go any lower. And it may pick up a few neanderthals here and there. Plus, the free discussion of the ad will help him stretch his meager campaign coffers a little farther.
- Earnest - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:35 pm:
Voted “no difference.” I don’t think it will change many opinions of him either way.
- I Miss Bentohs - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:38 pm:
I was going to say No Impact but changed to it hurts Rauner. I see no way it can help and to me the only way he wins is if Democrats do not vote … this may remind some of them to vote against Rauner.
- siualum - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:39 pm:
I voted “Hurt”, but at this point there may be little impact. Call me old-fashioned, but I don’t like the use of the word “f-ed”. I understand certain words are more effective at making a point, but there is also a place for such words. I don’t think this it.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:39 pm:
I voted no difference, pending a future poll, because the deficit might be too large to matter. But we’ll soon find out.
- A guy - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:39 pm:
Voted no difference because I really don’t know. I guess we’ll see. I don’t have any idea why Gay Marriage is a hot issue; it’s the law of the land and the sun kept rising and setting. It’s not threatening anyone and its just where we are now. That’s a good thing I think.
I didn’t process this as homophobic. More a spoof or parody of how these guys are planning to govern (according to Rauner) It could have been 2 women, or a man and a women, or in this case the two principals being criticized.
It gets your attention, but I don’t think it’s award winning in any way. Overthinking ads this late in the cycle is a fool’s errand. Few are any good.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:41 pm:
It might help him far downstate; which might help Bost and some legislative candidates. But it will hurt him in the collars, and with the constituency he hoped to win / appease by signing HB40, so it shows how he has had no plan to get to 50% plus one, just as he never had a plan to get to 60/30. Overall, it may be a wash, but he needs better at this stage. This is more likely about not dragging down others who might still win.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:43 pm:
Voted “hurt” because it’s kicked up enough controversy that he has to answer for it. When you’re behind, every minute you spend on something other than gaining hurts your campaign. And he’s running out of minutes.
- Arthur Andersen - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:46 pm:
Voted no difference. He’s screwed either way.
- The Dude Abides - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:47 pm:
I voted no difference. Most of the voters have made up their minds. It might help him with some Conservatives, as some Conservatives are homophobic. I’ll tell you who’s screwed and that’s Bruce Rauner. His campaign running ads like this is part of who he is because it’s a representation and argument to vote for him. He’s not going to be remembered kindly in the annals of Illinois history.
- Reserved - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:48 pm:
Voted “help”, seeking condemnation from liberals seems to be a Republican strategy now, so there’s going to be those voters who like the ad.
Also part of me wants to see a JB parody ad with an actor playing Rauner getting ready for his “date” with Trump this weekend. Maybe Diane fixing his tie, Rauner making some conservative affirmations in the mirror to himself, practicing greeting Trump, and deciding whether to hug or shake hands with Trump.
- Honeybadger - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:51 pm:
Rauner is just cementing his legacy as the worst Illinois Governor of all time.
- pipersls - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:53 pm:
FWIW, the video is still up on YouTube as of 3:50.
- Actual Red - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 3:54 pm:
I can’t imagine much of anyone cares if people swear in politics these days. I also don’t think this ad tells us anything we haven’t already heard. Wash.
- Annonin' - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 4:00 pm:
We voted “helped” with the ExitInterviewTour. That is the way he ran the mumbo jumbo government and this Sad Sack of a campaign.
- Flynn's Mom - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 4:01 pm:
It hurt because it brings even more negative attention to his campaign.
- Norseman - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 4:07 pm:
No difference. This race has been saturated with ads for so long, minds are made up. We’ve all been “because Madigan” to death.
- Cheryl44 - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 4:10 pm:
It may not hurt him in this race, because IMO he’s already lost. I think it will come back to haunt him someday in the future. Karma’s a [deleted].
- d.p.gumby - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 4:12 pm:
lowers him to the president’s level and destroys whatever integrity he had left.
- Henry Francis - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 4:19 pm:
I voted no difference for his campaign.
But I agree with MrJM about how people will view him going forward. Will he be welcome in the same circles as before he became governor? He has devolved into just another politician in the mold of Ives and Proft.
- Queasy the Python - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 4:25 pm:
I think it is almost impossible to hurt a campaign that is down almost 20 points.
There are plenty of gay Republicans in Illinois that any GOP candidate needs to get to 20% of the vote in Chicago, and Rauner just lost them. All of them.
It isn’t gonna play too well in Suburbia either.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 4:30 pm:
–PEARSON: Why won’t you use the word that’s in the ad that you’re paying for?
RAUNER: “I use my own words.–
LOL, those actors weren’t improvising, pro bono. You spent a lot of money for “your words” to get on the air.
Geez, how can you be a grown man and not take responsibility for anything?
- Blue Dog Dem - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 4:34 pm:
Voted no difference. I honestly think McCann is going to halve Rauners vote total.
- Chicago Cynic - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 4:39 pm:
Voted hurt but only slightly. He already lost conservatives by signing HB40 and signing the Trust Act. He’s not getting them back by pandering to the Jeanne Ives transgender crowd. As someone said earlier, the great philosopher Denny Green had it right. He is who we thought he was.
- Roadrager - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 4:44 pm:
==This will help him lose by only 10% now.Some of the conservatives will vote for him just to avoid the coming democrat-apocolypse for Illinois. But most conservatives don’t like him anyway. So he gained a few conservatives maybe. You Libs are stoned to think it hurt him with conservatives.==
This is the essence. In 2018, being overtly mean to “them libruhls” is the point. It’s what the electorate wants and craves. GOP stalwarts have gotten a steady does for three years and they are hooked for good.
This helps Rauner, very, very marginally, because he’s so in the depths. But if you think this ad “hurts” him, you also thought Jeannie Ives’ big splash on TV “hurt” her, when it was telling her target audience exactly what it wanted to hear.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 4:48 pm:
==But if you think this ad “hurts” him, you also thought Jeannie Ives’ big splash on TV “hurt” her, when it was telling her target audience exactly what it wanted to hear.==
It did hurt her. It told her target audience what it wanted to hear at the price of just about everyone else.
- Albany Park Patriot - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 5:11 pm:
No difference. He’s F-ed.
- Oberon - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 6:07 pm:
The ad is appalling. Nobody with any claim to statesmanship would run such a thing…as if anyone still thinks he could make that claim. It’s vulgar and crass. It hurt more than helped.
- West Side the Best Side - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 7:25 pm:
As an oldtimer I remember when TV had the “Family Hour” when non-offensive programming suitable for the entire family was on. Now it’s coarseness 24/7 (I also remember when the National Anthem was played and the screen went blank or snowy). But this ad just goes beyond the beyond. I voted Hurt because I hope it hurts someone with a basic lack of decency for the job he is holding and using this ad as a reason to vote for him to continue holding it.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 7:30 pm:
I voted No Difference, but some of the Hurt comments have made me hopeful that a holder of high office and public trust could be punished these days for crass vulgarity in the public discourse.
Here’s hoping it’s so, and if so, that it catches on.
- Concerned Observer - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 8:25 pm:
I voted Hurt, because it’s a numbers game. The polls show he needs to make up ground. There are a lot more people in Chicago/the collars who will be turned off by this ad than there are downstate who would jump on.
Frankly, I think it’s the “f’d” part that sinks him, not the gay marriage whistle. That won’t win him a single vote he didn’t already have, and it will turn people he might have gotten off.
- ZC - Tuesday, Oct 23, 18 @ 9:13 pm:
Trump can get away with this kind of ad because even when voters think he’s an SOB, some think (I don’t know why) he’s an authentic SOB. Also, conservative media will lay down suppressing fire in defense of anything Trump says.
Rauner … not so much.
- low level - Wednesday, Oct 24, 18 @ 8:20 am:
Simply unbecoming a sitting governor… especially of a large diverse state like Illinois. Always thought north shore types had some class, at least publically. Guess not