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Non-college whites, white men, independent women, evangelicals and seniors were Rauner’s constituencies

Thursday, Nov 8, 2018

* From Fox News

Fox News has launched an improved approach for analyzing Americans’ priorities and vote preferences on Election Day. The Fox News Voter Analysis combines survey data from NORC at the University of Chicago with voting results from The Associated Press. As more people vote early or by mail, the new method overcomes the limitations of in-person exit polls and captures the views of all Americans by integrating probability-based, state-by-state surveys with a massive online poll.

Full methodology is here.

* According to this analysis, JB Pritzker defeated Gov. Rauner among men 48-45, among women 59-33 and scored in the high 50s in all age groups except 65+, which Rauner won 50-40.

Rauner won white men 55-37, but Pritzker won white women 49-43. Pritzker won among African-Americans 91-6 and among Latinx 69-23.

Pritzker won all of the broad education categories, but Rauner won among whites who aren’t college educated 50-39. The two split college-educated whites 47-47.

Eight percent of Republicans and 12 percent of Republican women (you will recall they were targeted heavily by the Conservative Party) went for Sam McCann, and Rauner took 83 percent of GOP voters. Pritzker won 90 percent of Democratic voters.

According to the research, Pritzker won independent men 40-34, but lost independent women to Rauner 57-34. Not sure what’s up there.

Pritzker won moderates 52-39, while Sam McCann took 11 percent of conservatives to Rauner’s 73 percent.

Rauner won white evangelical/born again Christians 61-35 with no recorded support for McCann (very small sample size there, though).

Of those who voted to express support for President Trump, McCann took 9 percent to Rauner’s 78.

We’ll get to other results in a bit.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

67 Comments »
  1. - Cubs in '16 - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 10:20 am:

    ===Rauner won white evangelical/born again Christians 61-35===

    I’m absolutely dumbfounded by this. Hello… Remember SB40? Starving social services? Lying to a Cardinal? Either those were some seriously uninformed Christians or the term doesn’t mean what they think it means.


  2. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 10:22 am:

    Cubs, that constituency is also blindly supporting President Trump, one of the more immoral men ever to hold the office.


  3. - Anonymous - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 10:23 am:

    Big surprise the uneducated would support Rauner.


  4. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 10:27 am:

    ===Eight percent of Republicans and 12 percent of Republican women (you will recall they were targeted heavily by the Conservative Party) went for Sam McCann, and Rauner took 83 percent of GOP voters. Pritzker won 90 percent of Democratic voters.===

    McCann did “enough” to make what looked to be uphill at best, all but impossible.

    Nine of ten Dems for Pritzker

    Just over 4 of 5 Republicans for Rauner.

    Can’t trail in party ID as a Republican, and find a winning constituency.

    Good on McCann. McCann helped seal Rauner’s fate.


  5. - Angry Republican - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 10:28 am:

    I am still surprised Rauner received as many votes as he did. It does prove whatever the equivalent to yellow dog democrat also applies to Republican voters (yellow dog republican?). Conservatives did not have to vote for Rauner or any other candidate.


  6. - Cubs in '16 - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 10:28 am:

    -47th-

    Yep. It’s a head scratcher.


  7. - wordslinger - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 10:30 am:

    –According to the research, Pritzker won independent men 40-34, but lost independent women to Rauner 57-34. Not sure what’s up there.–

    I don’t think that’s right. Seems like it should be flipped, based on other surveys on Dem/GOP votes.

    For all his running away from Trump, Rauner basically got his Illinois demos and vote. Trump came in at 38.8%, Rauner at 39.3%.

    Karma or irony?


  8. - RNUG - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 10:31 am:

    White ✓
    Born again ✓
    College educated ✓
    Senior ✓

    Guess I voted for the wrong guy since I picked McCann /s


  9. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 10:32 am:

    ===I am still surprised Rauner received as many votes as he did. It does prove whatever the equivalent to yellow dog democrat also applies to Republican voters (yellow dog republican?). Conservatives did not have to vote for Rauner or any other candidate.===

    I’m not surprised, as this is the largest general election defeat of a sitting Illinois Governor seeking re-election in decades.

    I think @RadicalCandor had that stat.

    Rauner was defeated, as a sitting governor by a 14.5% margin, also not surpassing 40%.

    That’s humiliation. That’s a total and complete rebuke.

    The rest are just a measure of Rauner’s tattered constituency.

    With respect.


  10. - Duopoly - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 10:34 am:

    Be careful about assumptions and generalizations drawn from analyses. There appears to be a gap between non-college whites and “white men”. College educated white men who don’t view themselves as wealthy have been alienated by Rauner’s reliance on dishonesty and the failed right wing irrational approach to problem solving.

    BTW - Rational educated white males have observed that watching Fox “News” can turn one’s brain into cotton candy.


  11. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 10:36 am:

    @RadicalCandor - Looks like @BruceRauner has posted the worst showing for an incumbent Republican Governor since Charles S. Deneen in 1912

    That’s 1912… 116 years of “governors” and most of the 20th Century.

    Rauner is humiliated.


  12. - Southfarmllama - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 10:37 am:

    That demographic is on the way out. GOP need to start making in roads into other demographics or they will go the way of Rauner.


  13. - Real - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 10:39 am:

    Not surprising. For 4 years over 95 percent of the Rauner supporters I have engaged with on social media have been white.


  14. - Nick Name - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 10:40 am:

    ===I’m absolutely dumbfounded by this. Hello… Remember SB40? Starving social services? Lying to a Cardinal? Either those were some seriously uninformed Christians or the term doesn’t mean what they think it means.===

    Well, this is Trump’s base too, so…


  15. - Grandson of Man - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 10:41 am:

    I am so grateful for African-American and Latinx voters in Illinois. By their votes they reject anti-worker policies, and giving the super-rich permanent power and the lie that it will bring everyone else prosperity.

    Many non-college whites and others are prey to people like Trump and Rauner, who are all about enriching themselves and other multimillionaires and billionaires. Just feed them their fears and prejudices, and pretend to be like them (Rauner costumes), and gain great power and wealth. Alex Jones, Limbaugh, Coulter and others know it too, and have got very wealthy in this way.


  16. - a drop in - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 10:44 am:

    “I am still surprised Rauner received as many votes as he did. It does prove whatever the equivalent to yellow dog democrat also applies to Republican voters (yellow dog republican?). ”

    They are exactly the same people. They just switched parties.


  17. - El Conquistador - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 10:46 am:

    The not so secret GOP agenda has been and remains to influence, scare and manipulate uneducated whites and the elderly to their advantage. Such a lofty inspirational tact… Simply sad but expect them to continue until it absufails them.


  18. - a drop in - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 10:46 am:

    “According to the research, Pritzker won independent men 40-34, but lost independent women to Rauner 57-34. Not sure what’s up there.”

    Looks like the ones declaring Independent lean Republican. They may be former Republicans who broke with the party due to Rauner but didn’t feel Pritzker was acceptable and voted against him.


  19. - Saluki - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 10:47 am:

    == I’m absolutely dumbfounded by this. Hello… Remember SB40? Starving social services? Lying to a Cardinal? Either those were some seriously uninformed Christians or the term doesn’t mean what they think it means. ==

    It isn’t hard to understand. The Democratic party offers nothing to White born again evangelical Christians. There is literally nothing in the modern day democratic party that reaches out to them. That group is Pro-Life, Pro-traditional marriage, pro 2nd amendment. Tell me how the Illinois democratic party supports any of those notions?


  20. - Nacho - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 10:49 am:

    ==According to the research, Pritzker won independent men 40-34, but lost independent women to Rauner 57-34. Not sure what’s up there.==

    Those are some pretty small subsamples. Something like 47 men and 62 women.


  21. - d.p.gumby - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 10:49 am:

    Question: When we talk “Non-college” where do trade school certificates fit or associate degrees?


  22. - Just Lurking - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 10:51 am:

    Regarding independent women going for Rauner — I’m a white suburban female who used to identify as independent, leaning left. But thanks to Rauner and Trump, I now identify as Democratic. If many independents leaning left had a similar change, most of the independents remaining will lean right.


  23. - Real - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 10:52 am:

    This is another reason why Rauner and the ILGOP pits downstate against Chicago. Its racist whistle to attract white people downstate. They say Chicago in code to mean minorities in Chicago are taking your tax dollars. All this to attract uneducated white voters.


  24. - Jibba - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 10:57 am:

    == The Democratic party offers nothing to White born again evangelical Christians. There is literally nothing in the modern day democratic party that reaches out to them===

    Yup, but I don’t blame the Dems for the problem. The Dems stand for a lot of things that Jesus would love, such as social justice, taking care of the poor, health care, education, fairness in voting and taxation, and more. Evangelicals have forgotten those issues and vote on abortion alone. It’s their right to do so, but let’s not blame the Dems for not including hard right issues in their platform.


  25. - Honeybadger - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 11:00 am:

    I know a lot of white union members (trades, professional gov’t employees) who still voted for Rauner-for the mere fact that he was on the Republican ticket. They are the same people who support Trump. I stopped having political conversations with them when they agree that they are voting against their own self-interests, but they tell me they are Huge 2nd Amendment guys/gals who believe Democrats will take away their guns.


  26. - Gruntled University Employee - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 11:06 am:

    So that’s why Brucie kept droppin’ his G’s.


  27. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 11:06 am:

    === That group is Pro-Life, Pro-traditional marriage, pro 2nd amendment.===

    So was Jesus, right? I mean, the Gospels are filled with passages describing Jesus condemnation of homosexuality and his love of assault rifles.

    I agree that being Pro-life, pro-traditional marriage and pro-Second Amendment are the cornerstone beliefs of so-called evangelical voters. I just strongly disagree that those beliefs are consistent with the rest of Christian teaching and moral belief. Most evangelical voters are hypocrites and Pharisees in my opinion.


  28. - Da Big Bad Wolf - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 11:08 am:

    ==It isn’t hard to understand. The Democratic party offers nothing to White born again evangelical Christians. There is literally nothing in the modern day democratic party that reaches out to them.==
    You described Democrat Steve Webb and he lost.


  29. - Cubs in '16 - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 11:11 am:

    Trump and Rauner do have similar constituencies but Trump passes conservative muster better than Rauner imo. As Honeybadger alluded to, I think the voters in IL who identify as evangelical/born again Christians voted for Rauner simply because of the ‘R’ beside his name. They didn’t pay attention to the incongruence of what he said vs what he did. I check off the same boxes as RNUG and also voted for McCann. Social conservatives had other options available than lazily voting for Rauner.


  30. - ste_wit a v_en - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 11:11 am:

    For all that talk of the base not showing up, seems like they did.
    Also seems the base is shrinking and even with McCann and Jackson voters, he was still down.
    We’re gonna need a bigger tent.


  31. - onto2020 - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 11:12 am:

    El Conquistador - But the not so secret Democrat agenda has been to influence, scare and manipulate minorities to their advantage.


  32. - JB13 - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 11:13 am:

    Ah, the never ending sanctimony of partisans who can’t fathom how anyone might believe differently from them.


  33. - ZC - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 11:14 am:

    The primary advantage of this survey over the traditional exits, should be the better estimates of education effects.

    The old Edison exit poll survey was really bad at estimating who voted for whom based on college degree / non college degree. And unfortunately that’s become a huge divide at the national level.

    Unfortunately, maybe because there was no Senate race (and they decided Rauner was toast?) there -isn’t- any CNN statewide exit poll summary of IL. So, nothing to cross compare the new Fox methodology with. It will be interesting to look at thee two survey approaches across other states, however.


  34. - Langhorne - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 11:16 am:

    Sangamon county has about 14,500 state employees, yet went for rauner 39k over 36k for pritzker. Not what i expected at all.


  35. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 11:17 am:

    ===Democrat agenda===

    Oh boy.

    Tough to see what Republicans offer right now to race.

    As a Republican, in today’s world, it’s a whistle to minorities I may have racist beliefs.

    Why would they think that?

    We (Republican Party) seem to not want inclusion?


  36. - City Zen - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 11:18 am:

    ==Big surprise the uneducated would support Rauner.==

    That’s college educated, dear doctor. But these folks are also products of Illinois’ lower and fully unionized education system. So there’s that.


  37. - ajjacksson - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 11:24 am:

    I find Mr. Rauner to be a liar, a bully, not pro-life, and not supportive of assistance to the “widows and orphans” of our current society, among other things. The ad showing the “marriage” of Madigan and Pritzker was vulgar, and completely inconsistent with any Christ-like message. As an evangelical, I do not understand how any other evangelical could vote for him.


  38. - Hysteria - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 11:24 am:

    I don’t think the Democrats offer minorities what they say they do, and I also think that the Republican party absolutely wants inclusion (isn’t Erika Harold an African American woman), but every single thing you see on TV or read in the news is that Republicans are racist, and it’s hard to get past that when that’s all that’s out there. I know minorities who are afraid to admit to their friends that they are Republicans, and that’s just wrong.


  39. - DeseDemDose - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 11:25 am:

    Evangelicals will someday leave God out of the voting booth and learn politics is all about the benjamins and they are being hurt in the pocketbook.


  40. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 11:27 am:

    ===every single thing you see on TV or read in the news is that Republicans are racist===

    That starts with this current POTUS for the “now”

    You think POTUS isn’t dog whistling racist?

    “Nationalist”?

    Hmm.


  41. - Da Big Bad Wolf - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 11:36 am:

    ==but every single thing you see on TV or read in the news is that Republicans are racist,==
    Lol. I haven’t watched TV in years but I do read the news. I haven’t seen that. Maybe an occasional story about an individual Republican behaving badly. What paper are you referring to?


  42. - Actual Red - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 11:36 am:

    “According to the research, Pritzker won independent men 40-34, but lost independent women to Rauner 57-34. Not sure what’s up there.”

    My own half-baked, most evidenceless theory for this:

    1.Women in general are more socially liberal than men, and the GOP is increasingly building it’s brand on social conservativism, especially at the federal level.

    2. Women who are socially moderate-to-liberal and fiscally moderate-to-conservative may be less inclined to identify as republicans, even if economically they agree with republicans.

    3. Therefore, the pool of independent women is more economically conservative than the pool of independent men, because men with similar economic views would be just be republicans, and women with more centrist economic views would be democrats.

    4. Because Rauner is an economic conservative but not much of a culture warrior, this group might be more willing to vote for him than they would be for Trump/national republicans.


  43. - Jibba - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 11:37 am:

    ==the Republican party absolutely wants inclusion===

    That may be true, but it is hard to attract people when at the same time you are actively trying to prevent them from voting.


  44. - Hysteria - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 11:44 am:

    Further to my other post, one of my good friends is an immigrant from Mexico. She and her family didn’t speak English when they came here. They eventually started a successful business and became citizens. She is a Republican. She’s said that the Hispanic community values families and God, something that the Democratic party doesn’t, and so she identifies more with the Republican party and thinks that more Hispanics should, too. And she’s a legal immigrant, so there’s that, too.


  45. - wordslinger - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 11:46 am:

    –She is a Republican. She’s said that the Hispanic community values families and God, something that the Democratic party doesn’t,–

    Your handle is most appropriate.

    Must be tough casting all those stones with a log in your eye.


  46. - Nacho - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 11:58 am:

    ==I also think that the Republican party absolutely wants inclusion (isn’t Erika Harold an African American woman)==

    That’s your evidence?


  47. - Hysteria - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 12:14 pm:

    Word - Her words, not mine. But thanks for making my point.
    Nacho - There were a lot of minority candidates across the country who are Republicans (forgive me for just focusing on a top race here), but they don’t get any press. This morning I saw an article highlighting the women of color who were elected to Congress. Absent was Young Kim, a Korean immigrant who I believe is the first Korean American elected to Congress. But, guess what? She’s a Republican, so she doesn’t count.


  48. - Da Big Bad Wolf - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 12:18 pm:

    ==but they don’t get any press.==
    So you just happen to know them personally, since they got no press and all.


  49. - Hysteria - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 12:23 pm:

    Well, they get press on Fox news, but that’s about it. :)


  50. - Anonymous - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 12:27 pm:

    Poor, poor Republicans.


  51. - Amalia - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 12:39 pm:

    you hang with Trump, you hang with Trump.


  52. - fka Deadbeat Conservative - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 12:42 pm:

    =Sangamon county has about 14,500 state employees, yet went for rauner 39k over 36k for pritzker. Not what i expected at all. =

    You’re not from Sangamon county. Lots of followers of the irrational right and low self-esteem state workers. They identify with rural constituencies because they drive crew cab pick-up trucks to their social service agency jobs.


  53. - Responsa - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 12:53 pm:

    This “improved approach methodology” which they declare is part probability and part on-line polling leaves me cold and unimpressed. There is simply no way to gauge a voter’s education level and skin color with any degree of certainty. Whatevs. Mistakes will be made by future candidates and campaigns if they rely heavily on info such as this.


  54. - anon2 - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 1:02 pm:

    === Good on McCann. McCann helped seal Rauner’s fate. ===

    You know what they say about payback…


  55. - btowntruthfromforgottonia - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 1:09 pm:

    To the evangelicals who voted for Rauner:
    Don’t ever talk to me about how right-to-life you are.


  56. - L.A. - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 1:39 pm:

    -but every single thing you see on TV or read in the news is that Republicans are racist-

    I’m not saying Republicans are racists. I’m saying the racists think that’s their party.


  57. - wordslinger - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 1:41 pm:

    –Word - Her words, not mine. But thanks for making my point.–

    LOL, if they are “her words,” how could it be “your point?” You’ll throw your back out with those contortions.

    It’s swell to have “a friend” you can put your own words in her mouth to draw a broad, general conclusion.

    But if you had read this post before commenting, you’d see Pritzker got 69% of the Hispanic vote.


  58. - btowntruthfromforgottonia - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 1:47 pm:

    onto2020:
    Parties talking minorities?
    Who spent weeks screaming about caravans invading the country?
    Here’s two hints:Rhymes with “GOP” and “Trump”.


  59. - Pundent - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 1:48 pm:

    ==I also think that the Republican party absolutely wants inclusion (isn’t Erika Harold an African American woman)==

    The Republican party is led by a President who accused his predecessor not being born here. And since taking office he’s only doubled down on his rhetoric. Are all Republicans racist? Of course not. To a large number of Republicans support a President who is? Absolutely.


  60. - Anonymous - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 1:51 pm:

    White supremacy’s a helluva drug. Art Jones is pleased.


  61. - btowntruthfromforgottonia - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 2:01 pm:

    Saluki:
    “That group is Pro-Life, Pro-traditional marriage, pro 2nd amendment.”

    That group moseyed on out to the polls and went 61% for a guy who signed into law expanded medical coverage for abortion and officiated a gay marriage.

    So they either went against church teachings and their beliefs or forgot them when they saw the (R).

    It’s one or the other.Which is it?


  62. - Papa2008 - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 3:11 pm:

    That 61% won’t have an abortion (maybe), aren’t gay (maybe), but own guns. They voted their own self-interest (guns), to the exclusion of the other issues. Not that this race was close, but if the Dems ever nominate a pro-second amendment guy, it wouldn’t even be a contest.


  63. - wordslinger - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 3:34 pm:

    –Not that this race was close, but if the Dems ever nominate a pro-second amendment guy, it wouldn’t even be a contest.–

    You might want to check with Gov. Poshard on that one.


  64. - FoodforThought123 - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 3:49 pm:

    I really wish people would quit saying that voting for another party (such as Conservative) would be a wasted vote. If everyone who would say that would vote for it, they may actually give the Dem or Repub. candidates a run for their money.


  65. - Papa2008 - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 5:27 pm:

    Ahh..Governor Poshard. It would have had such a nice ring to it. I gotta give you that one. If the Dem doesn’t tie his hands behind his back it wouldn’t even be a contest.


  66. - btowntruth from forgottonia - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 6:35 pm:

    - Papa2008 - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 3:11 pm:

    That 61% won’t have an abortion (maybe), aren’t gay (maybe), but own guns. They voted their own self-interest (guns), to the exclusion of the other issues. Not that this race was close, but if the Dems ever nominate a pro-second amendment guy, it wouldn’t even be a contest.
    ================================================

    They wouldn’t get an abortion OR get married to someone fo the same sex…..
    And they don’t want anyone else to either.

    And if they want to believe that anything with a (D) next to it on the ballot is anti-2nd Amendment and is all “they wants tah takes mah gunz away” they can believe it.
    Won’t make it any more true though.

    I know too many of them.
    They would vote Republican no…matter…what.


  67. - TooManyJens - Thursday, Nov 8, 18 @ 7:02 pm:

    ==To the evangelicals who voted for Rauner:
    Don’t ever talk to me about how right-to-life you are. ==

    This is how I feel about people who voted for Trump.


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