Let me offer some ideas and solutions to dig out of our mess.
First, when the fair tax becomes law, we will create a new revenue source dedicated specifically to pensions. The state will commit to using $200 million a year directly to pensions, over and above our legally required payments. This will not only help pay down the unfunded liability but will likely also lower the cost of our debt.
Second, we must infuse cash and assets into the system now to improve the health of the funds. We will be evaluating some of the assets that are owned by the State – they could be worth tens of billions of dollars – for potential transfer into the pension funds. I am pleased that experts like Jackie Avitia-Guzman and Jamie Star have signed on to help with these evaluations. These assets could be used in a way that is far more financially responsible for the state, to increase assets in the pension systems to offset liabilities and reduce the unfunded liability overall.
Third, let’s listen to experts and exercise good financial management. We can lower the cost of our pension debt and inject cash immediately into the system by issuing a small-scale pension bond of about $2 billion. The bond proceeds would be used for no purpose other than to be deposited directly into the funds — and would be used only for paying down our more expensive pension liabilities. No skimming off the top to pay this year’s pension payment. No using bond proceeds to pay for operating costs.
This protects taxpayers from the way these bonds were misused in the past, and it brings our pension funds closer to a healthy level. We would look to move forward with this bond only if the calculation makes sense for taxpayers — and if the interest rates are lower for the bond than what we are currently paying for the pension debt. It’s simply good financial management.
Fourth, the optional pension buyout programs passed in last year’s budget were short term in nature — which limits their effectiveness at reducing our future pension liabilities. We intend to extend these programs to provide certainty to retiring employees who may choose the option to receive more retirement income upfront. By doing so, we can expand the savings to the state overall. This is a responsible way to reduce liabilities without going back on the state’s promised retirement benefits.
Finally, during last year’s campaign Governor Pritzker proposed smoothing and flattening payments into the pension system in the context of contributing more cash and assets to the system. We propose a modest extension of our pension amortization schedule by seven years. We will still reach the target goal of 90% funding, but we will do so without massively crowding out investments our state needs to grow its economy. After almost a quarter century of losing ground, a seven-year extension is reasonable in the context of currently contributing billions more to our pensions systems.
Collectively, these five actions will expand our tax revenue base, invest in priorities that will grow our economy, and we’ll be able to put our pensions on a sustainable path that keeps our promises to retirees.
Now, no discussion of pensions would be complete without recognition that we have a pension crisis brewing among our local and county governments. We must explore smart ways to consolidate those pension funds. The state is home to 671 separate public pension funds. This results in a fractured system that often duplicates functions across funds, limits the smaller funds to a narrow range of lower return investments, and impedes their ability to negotiate lower fees.
Deputy Gov. Dan Hynes suggested the key to the plan is to extend the period of time the state has to reach full funding of its pension plays by seven years, to 2052. “Full funding” currently is defined has having 90 percent of the assets needed to pay promised benefits. […]
Hynes told me the deferral will buy the state time to examine asset sales and other matters—and give Pritzker some a bit of leeway in dealing with a projected deficit of $3.2 billion in the new fiscal 2020 budget he’s set to unveil next week, on Feb. 20. Specifically, extending the full-payment ramp to 2020 will reduce the amount the state has to contribute next year by about $800 million. The state “still will have to contribute $8 billion,” Hynes noted. But by deferring the payment owed, the state will run up increased interest costs on debt it legally will have to pay, Hynes conceded, declining to give a cost figure. […]
Hynes specifically refused to take a possible sale of the Illinois Tollway off the table. “That’s the kind of issue” that a new commission Pritzker appointed last week is considering, and “I don’t want to prejudge anything,” Hynes said.
….Adding… Senate President Cullerton’s spokesperson on the pension bond…
It’s an interesting concept. The Senate President looks forward to learning more about the idea and its specific safeguards.
Republicans will complain about “kicking the can down the road. For the last four years the GOP has gotten nothing done on pensions, so this seems better.
No magic beans? Who knew progress could be made without them?
While I am certainly in favor of some aspects, like adding funding and a specific funding source. some of the ideas need fleshing out. Bonding is not an answer if the interest rate is high, and given the market at the moment, it may be bad timing (he mentioned this). I think it is the wrong time.
Putting assets in the funds is interesting but it is not easy to identify assets with a positive cash flow, unless the state will be renting them back. Tollway, perhaps, or things that can be sold such as a university campus or prison.
- Grandson of Man - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 12:39 pm:
No switching to 401k’s for future workers, no more unconstitutional cuts and austerity-type of policies. Good on Hynes to not propose reforms that cut workers.
He’s thinking right, hard as it is to get a fair tax. We must get more revenue from the rich and use it in a dedicated way to pay on pensions.
This is a really thoughtful and rational approach. We are long overdue in tackling this financial monster. So instead of poo-pooing this start letting these folks get this done. No more excuses from anyone.
Not to squabble about terminology, but I really find the twisting of the meaning of “fair tax,” which is typically the term used to describe a value-added tax (VAT) that applies to all purchases, to be applied here to refer to a tax scheme that is similar to the federal (and some other states) income tax structure. It’s particularly amusing that the proponents of this aren’t using the accepted term for such programs - a “progressive” tax. Gotta love the newspeak around these parts.
Kind of small ball. 200 million above the statutory payments is still likely less then the annual actuarial recommendation. Absent the Supreme Court intervention- there are really no good options other then making annual payments to the detriment of other urgent spending needs. For the life of me this concept of transferring state assets into the pension systems to reduce the unfunded liabilities seems like something Bernie Madoff would come up. The pensions need cash to pay benefits or to invest in cash producing assets. Transferring illiquid hard assets into the systems which can not be reduced into cash producing assets makes no sense. Also will the systems then be responsible for maintaining those assets incurring cash expenditures. Unless the to be transferred assets generate income the suggestion is a charade
- The Dude Abides - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 1:00 pm:
Dan Hynes was a great hire by the Governor. It’s refreshing to hear some intelligent thought on fixing the pension problem rather than the illegal ideas floated in the past. This Administration actually seems serious about fixing the problem.
Good luck with those pension bonds - Illinois credit rating would make coupon payments demanded by investors for near junk bonds very high and likely not feasible …
Moody’s Investors Service on Tuesday said Illinois’ Baa3 rating could be impaired if the state relies on one-time revenue measures or increases its bill backlog to balance the upcoming budget.
The credit rating agency also listed the state’s escalating pension contributions as a top issue for the new governor. Those payments are projected to climb by 8 percent to $9.22 billion in fiscal 2020 for Illinois, which ended fiscal 2018 with a $133.5 billion unfunded pension liability.
Let me see if I have this correct. They propose to simultaneously reduce the legally required annual contribution by $800 million (by stretching out the amortization), but then contribute $200 million above the new legal minimum annually and an extra one-time $2 billion via bonding. So over a 4-year period this would reduce net cash contributions by $400 million in total. OK, I can live with that. However, if nothing more is done after that, contributions will be $600 million less annually than under current law. Not cool.
Serious question: would you support selling the Tollway if it meant that the pension systems would be receiving nearly all they were due ($130B, give or take a few tens of billions)? (no real idea what it is worth, this is just a thought exercise).
I’d be tempted, but I just don’t know. The Tollway, while criticized for politics, performs a real service for the cash and is integrated into the fiber of NE IL. But it would be lifesaving for many agencies if 6B or so would get freed up annually in the upcoming budgets.
$200M from a graduated income tax is peanuts; needs to be more on the order of at least $1B if you are serious about really digging out. That won’t get you actuarial but it would be close this year. Really needs to be $2B in a couple of years,but if you do that then you can’t pay for all of JB’s wish list without really high tax rate.
Stretching the ramp 7 years is pretty much the most you can do before you hit the point of diminishing returns in terms of a significant lowering of immediate payments. It will work, more or less, but runs counter to increasing payments into the funds. But, again, that I’d how you find the money for JB’d wish list.
Finally, I understand the concept but I’m still having problems with the State come ng up with viable hard assets into the pension funds. Plus, again, if you were to count what I will call soft phantom assets into the funds, then they will appear healthier on paper, and then supposedly not have to have as large as set of contributions made each year. Again, less money in frees up cash for JB’s wish list. Show me a revenue generating asset to put in the funds and I might change my mind.
If I had to summarize this, it is creative kick the can financing.
All this discussion about putting some kind of State asset, like real estate,overlooks one key point: pension assets are expected to be invested and earn the projected rate of return, about 7%.
Anonymous- if the tollways thru off 6 billion plus cash then the State would have the 6 B you suggest it now already needs. These transfer discussions are a hoax. If the tollways were cash flow positive then they wouldn’t need to routinely access the debt markets when repairs are needed. The Skyway didn’t work out so well for Daley and I expect the pension systems are jumping for joy at the notion of assuming responsibility for the tollways systems. What is needed is assets with real equity or cash generating abilities where the cash goes toward beneficiaries not road repair
===be any different than the Chicago Parking Meter Deal===
Had Daley invested the proceeds of the parking meter lease in pension funds instead of buying groceries, we’d all thank him for his vision. Now, we curse his name because it costs us half a buck to park for ten minutes.
Blue Dog, I think everyone is curious how much higher our taxes will be. It will be nearly impossible to raise enough tax money without raising taxes on the middle class. Remember that the median family income in Illinois is $80,000.
Sue, the $6B I suggested is the approximate difference between the ramp payments and the normal annual cost of pensions, if I remember correctly, which would be available to spend if the pension debt is erased.
If a private company bought the Tollway, they would certainly find ways to make a profit from the cash flow, probably through staff cuts, lowering of operation and and maintenance standards, and raising tolls. How big that profit would be would help determine the selling price, and that is something not yet determined.
The question stands, though. Would you sell the Tollway to make up for decades of mismanagement? Imagine that, in one fell swoop, pension debt is erased and a real budget can be made that pays off accumulated other debt and reinvests in Illinois. Perhaps it is worth it to not be the laughingstock of the nation anymore.
Many highways in Europe (and likely elsewhere) are privately owned. My experience in Europe is that the tolls are higher, but the roads are much better too. Well worth it in my opinion.
The usual suspects in the peanut gallery are in fine form today. Say what you will about the various aspects of this plan, but it remains a fact that this appears to be a legal, constitutional framework to address the most pressing issue facing Illinois.
Will it work? Time will tell. But we’re long past time to keep debating abstract concepts. Hynes outlined the key components that must be addressed. None of it is easy, none of it is pain free.
Now is the time to act, so that in another decade we don’t find ourselves in a deeper hole. All we have left are bad choices and worse choices. The good choices were all taken previously, which is why we’re in this mess.
Hynes spoke today to the City Club, and earlier this week on WTTW, and the best part was he treated his audience like they were adults, not children. He gave it to us straight. At the end of the day, that’s all I want from a public official.
- What's in a name? - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 2:15 pm:
At least it seems like smart people are genuinely working on the issues. More please.
Love the fact that this proposal is based on what can get done. It is better to get something changed vs. the all or nothing at all approach that previously was used.
If you go to market for bonds. Go big. It will drive down unfunded liability and you could pay them back over 30 years. Why extend the ramp 7 years when if you did just a little bit more bonding you could keep the current end date.
Illinois won’t have a progressive, fair, or whatever you call it, tax until 2021 at the earliest.
What income tax percentage would be needed in 2019 and 2020 to balance the State of Illinois budget, assuming it must be a flat tax for those years? I am assuming individual and corporate are raised by the same percentage.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 3:39 pm:
I doubt if the state would consider selling the entire assets of the Tollway, but I could be wrong. The price for allowing an operator the franchise for say 50 years (with the state retaining ownership of the land and the infrastructure) would be far lower than the price for an outright sale of land, infrastructure, operational rights, and probably a legislative property tax exemption.
=$200M from a graduated income tax is peanuts; needs to be more on the order of at least $1B if you are serious about really digging out. That won’t get you actuarial but it would be close this year. Really needs to be $2B in a couple of years,but if you do that then you can’t pay for all of JB’s wish list without really high tax rate.=
Right as usual. Martire suggested a dedicated sales tax of 1% with all revenue dedicated to the structural deficit. It probably would need to be more than 1% now but that along with some bonding for the pension debt in probably is needed.
Anonymous 2:10
European roads are better for two reasons. First, the surface is thick enough to meet the weather, usage, and soil conditions - the Autobahn is 27 inches thick, Illinois interstate freeways are 13 inches thick. Second, when a European road contractor builds a freeway, they are responsible for all non-accident / Act of God repairs for, generally, 10 years - out of pocket (mention that here to a road contractor & they get a look on their face like a 10 year old boy whose dog just got run over).
JB’s foot is going to be sore after kicking the can so hard.
- Last Bull Moose - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 5:33 pm:
Anyone Remember, good point. 30 years ago the company where I worked switched from just selling equipment to financed projects;design, build, operate, maintain. Costs of some components went up 40 % to minimize downtime and maintenance.
On Daley’s parking meter deal 3 points. The buyers had better negotiators at the table than the city. The city was desperate. Revenues had collapsed leaving a billion dollar hole in a $6 billion budget. And the City Council had refused to increase parking rates to market values. Selling moved that decision out of the Council.
Those who criticize the Daley asset deals usually ignore Midway. He bought it cheap. Collected a $200 million down payment for selling it. And got the airport back when the buyers could not complete the financing.
The more I read about this plan the worse it looks. Basically, in return for a one-time contribution of $2 billion made by borrowing, they will cut $800 million annually from the legally required state contribution. If and when the progressive income tax passes in 2-3 years, the cutback will be reduced to $600 million per year, but despite billions of dollars in additional tax revenues annually a lot less will be contributed to the pensions than under current law. This is not what was discussed during the campaign; didn’t they talk about contributing $2 billion per year more for at least each of the next 5-10 years to get the funding level higher quickly? Constitutional guarantees are great, but I am not sure what they will mean if the pension funds run out - perhaps in the next major market downturn. Any substantial reduction in contributions increases the risk that this will happen.
- Not a Billionaire - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 6:36 pm:
Ontario Teachers Find owns the Skyway valued at 2 billion.
The Folks at is an incredible asset. Easily worth ten or twenty times skyway.
It realizes the value of our asset.
I understand that, theoretically, the state will have to pay the pensions out of general revenues if the pension funds run out. The Illinois Supreme Court will almost certainly insist on that based on its previous rulings. But if that is appealed in the federal courts will they agree, when the state will once again argue that it is facing a dire fiscal emergency and has other pressing needs? I would strongly prefer not to go down that road. Unfortunately, this plan weakens already severely underfunded pension plans even further, and increases the likelyhood that we will have to fight for our benefits in the courts yet again.
Andy S…all this discussion about transferring assets is exactly what would happen if the state were allowed to “go bankrupt”, which of course it cannot. The first thing to be done would be to list assets to be sold to fund debts. Tollway, every state building, state parks, art, etc. And the state would be renting that space back from the new owners, and the pensions would be paid. The end.
== But if that is appealed in the federal courts will they agree, when the state will once again argue that it is facing a dire fiscal emergency and has other pressing needs? ==
-Andy S- if we want to talk about the Federal vourts, we can look to past precedent. A State, as an employer, is treated much differently than any other entity. For one example, look at the State bring allowed to keep teachers (TRS) out of Social Security. For a second example, look at government bring exempt from participation in PBGC. I could cite others.
From cases I have read about, the Feds will generally keep hands off and defer to State laws when it comes to the employer / employee relationship. My guess is the Federal court system would choose to defer to the Illinois Constitution and the Illinois Supreme Court decisions.
There’s no doubt privatization could achieve cost savings at tollway. A private and/or profit drive entity would reduce union labor, extend out the maintenance cycle of the roads and raise tolls.
==Since 2009 (the depth of the Great Recession) the DJIA has averaged a 9.5% annual return adjusted for inflation, 12.3% if dividends are reinvested.==
That addresses one side of the pension equation. Unfortunately, it neglects the other side: the discount rate.
When the tollways were proposed it was claimed within 20 years the bonds would be paid off and tolls would cease. So much for that. The ongoing narative more recently is they are self sustaining. Fair to say, the tollway was never intended to be a profit maker. The current proposals amount to an unfair tax on Northern Illinois for now the benefit of downstate pensions. Why should there even be tollroads North, when the interstates are free South?
- Juvenal - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 12:31 pm:
Republicans will complain about “kicking the can down the road. For the last four years the GOP has gotten nothing done on pensions, so this seems better.
- QuickDraw - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 12:32 pm:
Geez, early like by the team; he has barely even got past his intro yet
- QuickDraw - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 12:32 pm:
Leak
- Annon - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 12:35 pm:
Can someone briefly explain option #4?
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 12:35 pm:
QuickDraw, the speech was embargoed until the start of his delivery. As soon as he began speaking, I hit the “save” button to post the update.
- Jibba - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 12:35 pm:
No magic beans? Who knew progress could be made without them?
While I am certainly in favor of some aspects, like adding funding and a specific funding source. some of the ideas need fleshing out. Bonding is not an answer if the interest rate is high, and given the market at the moment, it may be bad timing (he mentioned this). I think it is the wrong time.
Putting assets in the funds is interesting but it is not easy to identify assets with a positive cash flow, unless the state will be renting them back. Tollway, perhaps, or things that can be sold such as a university campus or prison.
- Grandson of Man - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 12:39 pm:
No switching to 401k’s for future workers, no more unconstitutional cuts and austerity-type of policies. Good on Hynes to not propose reforms that cut workers.
He’s thinking right, hard as it is to get a fair tax. We must get more revenue from the rich and use it in a dedicated way to pay on pensions.
- Smitty Irving - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 12:41 pm:
“No skimming off the top to pay this year’s pension payment. No using bond proceeds to pay for operating costs.”
Paging John Filan, paging John Filan!
- Shytown - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 12:46 pm:
This is a really thoughtful and rational approach. We are long overdue in tackling this financial monster. So instead of poo-pooing this start letting these folks get this done. No more excuses from anyone.
- Border Bound - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 12:53 pm:
Not to squabble about terminology, but I really find the twisting of the meaning of “fair tax,” which is typically the term used to describe a value-added tax (VAT) that applies to all purchases, to be applied here to refer to a tax scheme that is similar to the federal (and some other states) income tax structure. It’s particularly amusing that the proponents of this aren’t using the accepted term for such programs - a “progressive” tax. Gotta love the newspeak around these parts.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 12:53 pm:
–Bonding is not an answer if the interest rate is high, and given the market at the moment, it may be bad timing (he mentioned this).–
That’ll happen when Congress and the president double the annual federal deficit in a growing economy.
One trillion in Treasury paper flooding the market this year, and at least that every year, for the foreseeable future.
Because Republicans are fiscal conservatives.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/treasury-estimates-annual-net-marketable-debt-to-total-1-338-trillion-in-2018-1540839709
- Sue - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 12:53 pm:
Kind of small ball. 200 million above the statutory payments is still likely less then the annual actuarial recommendation. Absent the Supreme Court intervention- there are really no good options other then making annual payments to the detriment of other urgent spending needs. For the life of me this concept of transferring state assets into the pension systems to reduce the unfunded liabilities seems like something Bernie Madoff would come up. The pensions need cash to pay benefits or to invest in cash producing assets. Transferring illiquid hard assets into the systems which can not be reduced into cash producing assets makes no sense. Also will the systems then be responsible for maintaining those assets incurring cash expenditures. Unless the to be transferred assets generate income the suggestion is a charade
- The Dude Abides - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 1:00 pm:
Dan Hynes was a great hire by the Governor. It’s refreshing to hear some intelligent thought on fixing the pension problem rather than the illegal ideas floated in the past. This Administration actually seems serious about fixing the problem.
- Hieronymus - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 1:03 pm:
Sounds like a good start, but I’m rather skeptical about transferring state assets into the pension funds.
What’s to keep politics from constraining how those assets will then be managed for the exclusive benefit of those funds?
The funds would then be the proud owners of assets that are both illiquid and underperforming.
- Southside Markie - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 1:09 pm:
$2 billion is roughly the same amount as the two pension refinancing bonds that were done in the early 2000’s. Sounds like a re-fi of a re-fi.
- {Sigh} - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 1:09 pm:
Does anyone have a link to the commission announcement, I must have missed this one. Who is on the commission?
- City Zen - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 1:13 pm:
==We will be evaluating some of the assets that are owned by the State==
In my left hand is a coin. With a quick tap of my magic wand as I say the magic words hocus-bookus, you will see the coin is now in my right hand.
- Juvenal - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 1:14 pm:
How would the sale or long term lease of the tollway be any different than the Chicago Parking Meter Deal?
- Donnie Elgin - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 1:15 pm:
Good luck with those pension bonds - Illinois credit rating would make coupon payments demanded by investors for near junk bonds very high and likely not feasible …
Moody’s Investors Service on Tuesday said Illinois’ Baa3 rating could be impaired if the state relies on one-time revenue measures or increases its bill backlog to balance the upcoming budget.
The credit rating agency also listed the state’s escalating pension contributions as a top issue for the new governor. Those payments are projected to climb by 8 percent to $9.22 billion in fiscal 2020 for Illinois, which ended fiscal 2018 with a $133.5 billion unfunded pension liability.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/08/reuters-america-update-1-new-illinois-governor-eyes-larger-fy-2020-budget-hole.html
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 1:17 pm:
===be any different than the Chicago Parking Meter Deal===
The pension funds didn’t buy the parking meters.
- Andy S. - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 1:21 pm:
Let me see if I have this correct. They propose to simultaneously reduce the legally required annual contribution by $800 million (by stretching out the amortization), but then contribute $200 million above the new legal minimum annually and an extra one-time $2 billion via bonding. So over a 4-year period this would reduce net cash contributions by $400 million in total. OK, I can live with that. However, if nothing more is done after that, contributions will be $600 million less annually than under current law. Not cool.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 1:24 pm:
“The Fair Tax” LOL
- Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 1:26 pm:
Serious question: would you support selling the Tollway if it meant that the pension systems would be receiving nearly all they were due ($130B, give or take a few tens of billions)? (no real idea what it is worth, this is just a thought exercise).
I’d be tempted, but I just don’t know. The Tollway, while criticized for politics, performs a real service for the cash and is integrated into the fiber of NE IL. But it would be lifesaving for many agencies if 6B or so would get freed up annually in the upcoming budgets.
- RNUG - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 1:29 pm:
$200M from a graduated income tax is peanuts; needs to be more on the order of at least $1B if you are serious about really digging out. That won’t get you actuarial but it would be close this year. Really needs to be $2B in a couple of years,but if you do that then you can’t pay for all of JB’s wish list without really high tax rate.
Stretching the ramp 7 years is pretty much the most you can do before you hit the point of diminishing returns in terms of a significant lowering of immediate payments. It will work, more or less, but runs counter to increasing payments into the funds. But, again, that I’d how you find the money for JB’d wish list.
Finally, I understand the concept but I’m still having problems with the State come ng up with viable hard assets into the pension funds. Plus, again, if you were to count what I will call soft phantom assets into the funds, then they will appear healthier on paper, and then supposedly not have to have as large as set of contributions made each year. Again, less money in frees up cash for JB’s wish list. Show me a revenue generating asset to put in the funds and I might change my mind.
If I had to summarize this, it is creative kick the can financing.
- Lucky Pierre - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 1:35 pm:
Dan Hynes channeling Susana Mendoza
We balanced the budget, except for the pensions
- RNUG - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 1:42 pm:
All this discussion about putting some kind of State asset, like real estate,overlooks one key point: pension assets are expected to be invested and earn the projected rate of return, about 7%.
- Sue - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 1:43 pm:
Anonymous- if the tollways thru off 6 billion plus cash then the State would have the 6 B you suggest it now already needs. These transfer discussions are a hoax. If the tollways were cash flow positive then they wouldn’t need to routinely access the debt markets when repairs are needed. The Skyway didn’t work out so well for Daley and I expect the pension systems are jumping for joy at the notion of assuming responsibility for the tollways systems. What is needed is assets with real equity or cash generating abilities where the cash goes toward beneficiaries not road repair
- RNUG - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 1:43 pm:
Don’t get me wrong, he is at least proposing Constitutional stuff.
- 47th Ward - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 1:46 pm:
===be any different than the Chicago Parking Meter Deal===
Had Daley invested the proceeds of the parking meter lease in pension funds instead of buying groceries, we’d all thank him for his vision. Now, we curse his name because it costs us half a buck to park for ten minutes.
- Blue Dog Dem - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 1:46 pm:
Fair tax. Curious to see what that means. I wonder how and when the details are presented.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 1:48 pm:
Blue Dog, I think everyone is curious how much higher our taxes will be. It will be nearly impossible to raise enough tax money without raising taxes on the middle class. Remember that the median family income in Illinois is $80,000.
- driveby - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 1:49 pm:
Governor Martire-Lite
- Michelle Flaherty - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 1:56 pm:
Sure beats the “working together on Grand Bargain” for $4.6 billion approach from a certain someone
- City Zen - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 1:59 pm:
==Fair tax. Curious to see what that means.==
10% tax on all tickets at the Coliseum of Champions.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 2:00 pm:
Sue, the $6B I suggested is the approximate difference between the ramp payments and the normal annual cost of pensions, if I remember correctly, which would be available to spend if the pension debt is erased.
If a private company bought the Tollway, they would certainly find ways to make a profit from the cash flow, probably through staff cuts, lowering of operation and and maintenance standards, and raising tolls. How big that profit would be would help determine the selling price, and that is something not yet determined.
The question stands, though. Would you sell the Tollway to make up for decades of mismanagement? Imagine that, in one fell swoop, pension debt is erased and a real budget can be made that pays off accumulated other debt and reinvests in Illinois. Perhaps it is worth it to not be the laughingstock of the nation anymore.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 2:10 pm:
Many highways in Europe (and likely elsewhere) are privately owned. My experience in Europe is that the tolls are higher, but the roads are much better too. Well worth it in my opinion.
- 47th Ward - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 2:10 pm:
The usual suspects in the peanut gallery are in fine form today. Say what you will about the various aspects of this plan, but it remains a fact that this appears to be a legal, constitutional framework to address the most pressing issue facing Illinois.
Will it work? Time will tell. But we’re long past time to keep debating abstract concepts. Hynes outlined the key components that must be addressed. None of it is easy, none of it is pain free.
Now is the time to act, so that in another decade we don’t find ourselves in a deeper hole. All we have left are bad choices and worse choices. The good choices were all taken previously, which is why we’re in this mess.
Hynes spoke today to the City Club, and earlier this week on WTTW, and the best part was he treated his audience like they were adults, not children. He gave it to us straight. At the end of the day, that’s all I want from a public official.
- What's in a name? - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 2:15 pm:
At least it seems like smart people are genuinely working on the issues. More please.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 2:19 pm:
Those of you poo-pooing the term “fair tax,” that’s what you get after several years of “pension reform” discussions.
- illinifan - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 2:26 pm:
Love the fact that this proposal is based on what can get done. It is better to get something changed vs. the all or nothing at all approach that previously was used.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 2:38 pm:
- Illinois credit rating would make coupon payments demanded by investors for near junk bonds very high and likely not feasible …–
What do you base “not feasible” on?
Recent GO bond sales have been oversubscribed exponentially and sold out in a matter of minutes.
- Typical - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 2:44 pm:
If you go to market for bonds. Go big. It will drive down unfunded liability and you could pay them back over 30 years. Why extend the ramp 7 years when if you did just a little bit more bonding you could keep the current end date.
- Anon - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 3:05 pm:
I am praying the ratings agencies publicly come out and make clear that any of these scams will lead to a junk rating.
JB can decide from there whether being governor Junk is worth it.
Moody’s, Fitch and gang are the only thing that can save us from another kicking of the can that will cost us even more ultimately.
- Perrid - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 3:21 pm:
Anon, the assets and the 7 year pushback could, arguably, be called scams, the others could not.
- BCOSEC - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 3:25 pm:
Illinois won’t have a progressive, fair, or whatever you call it, tax until 2021 at the earliest.
What income tax percentage would be needed in 2019 and 2020 to balance the State of Illinois budget, assuming it must be a flat tax for those years? I am assuming individual and corporate are raised by the same percentage.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 3:39 pm:
I doubt if the state would consider selling the entire assets of the Tollway, but I could be wrong. The price for allowing an operator the franchise for say 50 years (with the state retaining ownership of the land and the infrastructure) would be far lower than the price for an outright sale of land, infrastructure, operational rights, and probably a legislative property tax exemption.
- AnonymousOne - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 3:46 pm:
Glad to hear of some plan, any plan—anything to begin to address the debt rather than wallowing in hand wringing as we watch the numbers grow daily.
Someone, somewhere has to step up and tackle paying back the debt. Finally.
- JS Mill - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 4:01 pm:
=$200M from a graduated income tax is peanuts; needs to be more on the order of at least $1B if you are serious about really digging out. That won’t get you actuarial but it would be close this year. Really needs to be $2B in a couple of years,but if you do that then you can’t pay for all of JB’s wish list without really high tax rate.=
Right as usual. Martire suggested a dedicated sales tax of 1% with all revenue dedicated to the structural deficit. It probably would need to be more than 1% now but that along with some bonding for the pension debt in probably is needed.
- Anyone Remember - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 4:33 pm:
Anonymous 2:10
European roads are better for two reasons. First, the surface is thick enough to meet the weather, usage, and soil conditions - the Autobahn is 27 inches thick, Illinois interstate freeways are 13 inches thick. Second, when a European road contractor builds a freeway, they are responsible for all non-accident / Act of God repairs for, generally, 10 years - out of pocket (mention that here to a road contractor & they get a look on their face like a 10 year old boy whose dog just got run over).
- Josh - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 4:49 pm:
JB’s foot is going to be sore after kicking the can so hard.
- Last Bull Moose - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 5:33 pm:
Anyone Remember, good point. 30 years ago the company where I worked switched from just selling equipment to financed projects;design, build, operate, maintain. Costs of some components went up 40 % to minimize downtime and maintenance.
On Daley’s parking meter deal 3 points. The buyers had better negotiators at the table than the city. The city was desperate. Revenues had collapsed leaving a billion dollar hole in a $6 billion budget. And the City Council had refused to increase parking rates to market values. Selling moved that decision out of the Council.
Those who criticize the Daley asset deals usually ignore Midway. He bought it cheap. Collected a $200 million down payment for selling it. And got the airport back when the buyers could not complete the financing.
- Andy S. - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 6:25 pm:
The more I read about this plan the worse it looks. Basically, in return for a one-time contribution of $2 billion made by borrowing, they will cut $800 million annually from the legally required state contribution. If and when the progressive income tax passes in 2-3 years, the cutback will be reduced to $600 million per year, but despite billions of dollars in additional tax revenues annually a lot less will be contributed to the pensions than under current law. This is not what was discussed during the campaign; didn’t they talk about contributing $2 billion per year more for at least each of the next 5-10 years to get the funding level higher quickly? Constitutional guarantees are great, but I am not sure what they will mean if the pension funds run out - perhaps in the next major market downturn. Any substantial reduction in contributions increases the risk that this will happen.
- Not a Billionaire - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 6:36 pm:
Ontario Teachers Find owns the Skyway valued at 2 billion.
The Folks at is an incredible asset. Easily worth ten or twenty times skyway.
It realizes the value of our asset.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 6:54 pm:
I think jb needs to do an eri to clear out us tier 1 keaches
- wondering - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 7:46 pm:
andy s., if they run out they will be paid out of general revenue. The ISC said the pensions had to paid. This has been covered here infinitum.
- Andy S. - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 8:15 pm:
I understand that, theoretically, the state will have to pay the pensions out of general revenues if the pension funds run out. The Illinois Supreme Court will almost certainly insist on that based on its previous rulings. But if that is appealed in the federal courts will they agree, when the state will once again argue that it is facing a dire fiscal emergency and has other pressing needs? I would strongly prefer not to go down that road. Unfortunately, this plan weakens already severely underfunded pension plans even further, and increases the likelyhood that we will have to fight for our benefits in the courts yet again.
- Jibba - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 8:52 pm:
Andy S…all this discussion about transferring assets is exactly what would happen if the state were allowed to “go bankrupt”, which of course it cannot. The first thing to be done would be to list assets to be sold to fund debts. Tollway, every state building, state parks, art, etc. And the state would be renting that space back from the new owners, and the pensions would be paid. The end.
- RNUG - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 10:56 pm:
== But if that is appealed in the federal courts will they agree, when the state will once again argue that it is facing a dire fiscal emergency and has other pressing needs? ==
-Andy S- if we want to talk about the Federal vourts, we can look to past precedent. A State, as an employer, is treated much differently than any other entity. For one example, look at the State bring allowed to keep teachers (TRS) out of Social Security. For a second example, look at government bring exempt from participation in PBGC. I could cite others.
From cases I have read about, the Feds will generally keep hands off and defer to State laws when it comes to the employer / employee relationship. My guess is the Federal court system would choose to defer to the Illinois Constitution and the Illinois Supreme Court decisions.
- RNUG - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 11:00 pm:
Clarification:
defer to State laws when it comes to the STATE as employer / STATE employee relationship.
The Federal courts have and will, no doubt, continue to intervene in the non-government employer / employee relationship.
- Publius - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 8:34 am:
BORROWING MONEY TO PUT IN AN INVESTMENT FUND?????
Borrowing money to put it on n the stock markets makes no sense
- wordslinger - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 8:47 am:
–Borrowing money to put it on n the stock markets makes no sense–
It can when you’re going long, as pension funds should. There will be ups and downs, the historic arc is up.
Makes less sense now then it just a couple of years ago when costs of borrowing were lower.
Since 2009 (the depth of the Great Recession) the DJIA has averaged a 9.5% annual return adjusted for inflation, 12.3% if dividends are reinvested.
- Canon - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 9:08 am:
There’s no doubt privatization could achieve cost savings at tollway. A private and/or profit drive entity would reduce union labor, extend out the maintenance cycle of the roads and raise tolls.
- City Zen - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 9:18 am:
==Since 2009 (the depth of the Great Recession) the DJIA has averaged a 9.5% annual return adjusted for inflation, 12.3% if dividends are reinvested.==
That addresses one side of the pension equation. Unfortunately, it neglects the other side: the discount rate.
- wondering - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 9:32 am:
When the tollways were proposed it was claimed within 20 years the bonds would be paid off and tolls would cease. So much for that. The ongoing narative more recently is they are self sustaining. Fair to say, the tollway was never intended to be a profit maker. The current proposals amount to an unfair tax on Northern Illinois for now the benefit of downstate pensions. Why should there even be tollroads North, when the interstates are free South?
- wordslinger - Friday, Feb 15, 19 @ 9:47 am:
–Why should there even be tollroads North, when the interstates are free South?–
Interstates that have tolls weren’t built with federal funds but were allowed to keep charging tolls when absorbed into the Interstate Highway System.
https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/infrastructure/tollroad.cfm