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No, Trump is not more popular than Pritzker, but the governor has work to do

Wednesday, Mar 6, 2019

* Ignore the hype and read the actual numbers

A new poll — paid for by a pro-business group opposing a graduated income tax — finds President Donald Trump has a higher favorability ranking in Illinois than both Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan.

The We Ask America poll was commissioned by the not-for-profit dark money group Ideas Illinois, which is led by former Illinois Manufacturers’ Association head Greg Baise. The group is working hard to publicly oppose Pritzker’s plan to push for a graduated income tax, which the governor wants on the 2020 ballot. […]

The poll of 800 voters was conducted between Feb. 24 and 27, using a mix of automated calls to landlines and live cell phone calls. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percentage points. We Ask America did not release the crosstabs — including the gender or ages of those who were polled.

The poll asked about the job performance of Pritzker, who has only been in office since Jan. 14. It found that 37 percent said they approved of the governor’s job performance, while 36 percent disapproved. Among Republicans, 69 percent disapproved, while only 16 percent approved. Among Democrats, however, 57 percent approved of his performance, while only 13 percent disapproved. Of independent voters, 29 percent approved of Pritzker’s job performance.

Voters were also asked about Trump, and 41 percent said they approved of Trump’s performance, while 56 percent disapproved. The president’s approval is at 86 percent among Republicans, while his disapproval was at 89 percent among Democrats. Among independents, 42 percent approved, while 51 percent disapproved of his performance. The net job approval — the approval minus disapproval — for the president is at minus 15 percent. The latest Morning Consult poll had Illinois at -23 net approval for a poll conducted in January.

Where to begin?

Yes, 41 percent approved of Trump’s job performance compared to 37 percent for Pritzker. But that’s not how you judge who’s more popular. Trump’s disapproval rating of 56 percent was higher than his approval rating. Pritzker’s disapproval rating (36) was below his approval rating (37), giving him a +1 net approval. And +1 is far better than -15 every day of the week. And since 56 is much higher than 36, you could just as easily say that Trump is far more unpopular than Pritzker.

Also, while only 3 percent appeared to not have an opinion of the president’s job performance, 27 percent had no opinion of the governor’s performance. That makes sense because he’d barely been in office a month when the poll was taken.

* To be clear, 37-36 approve/disapprove numbers are not anything to write home about, particularly a few months after winning by 16 points. A We Ask America poll taken in January of 2015 showed that newly inaugurated Gov. Bruce Rauner’s approve/disapprove numbers were 52/23. A month later, another pollster had Rauner’s approve/disapprove rating at 43/28.

So, if this new poll is right (and it’s only one poll, snapshot in time, yadda, yadda) Pritzker is definitely not starting off with the people at his back.

* From the pollster

While nearly half of Illinois voters (45%) are not sure of their opinion of Pritzker’s recent budget proposal, those that do have an opinion are not in favor. Less than one-quarter of voters (22%) support it, while one-third of voters (33%) oppose his budget proposal. Only 17% of Independents and 6% of Republicans support his budget, while 31% and 63% oppose the budget, respectively. Among Democrats, 37% support and 13% oppose it.

In other words, it’s a big “Meh” from voters. I can’t disagree with them.

* Also

House Speaker Mike Madigan remains very unpopular. Just 18% of Illinois voters have a favorable opinion of Madigan, while 41% have an unfavorable opinion. Even among Democrats, Madigan is under water with just 26% having a favorable opinion, while 30% have an unfavorable opinion. Independents have a highly unfavorable opinion of Madigan, with just 13% expressing a favorable opinion but 44% an unfavorable one. Among Republicans, he sits at 13% Favorable/54% Unfavorable (41% Very Unfavorable).

Favorability and job performance are different measures, but -23 is obviously bad. The best thing Madigan has going for him is that 41 percent don’t have any opinion about him. He’ll take that all day.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

62 Comments
  1. - Norseman - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 10:03 am:

    This should serve as a wakeup call. JB is not being judged against Rauner anymore. He’s it. He’s the man. The buck stops squarely on his desk. Now if he can find it among his own numerous bucks, he’s got to engage with the GA to get his agenda passed. He also needs to engage with the media to garner support for that agenda. Sell his plans and sell his state as a place to come.


  2. - PublicServant - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 10:07 am:

    Norseman is on it. nuff said


  3. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 10:07 am:

    It’s quite early in Pritzker’s term for polls to really mean anything—unless he did something that had a huge impact. Passing a minimum wage was big, but it’s probably not something voters hate, to cause big polling negativity.

    The Sterigenics shutdown was a big positive but it’s local and might not have a big impact.

    The biggest fear Pritzker ought to have is not right wing screamers and Republicans who pump out the repetitive attacks on him and Democrats, but his own voters. He has to deliver for his mandate. If he does, as he has been doing, he should be fine.

    What are Republicans and the right wing going to do beyond chronic, impotent screaming that failed hugely in the last election?


  4. - Annonin' - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 10:07 am:

    The 56% disapprove of Trump and 41% unfavorable for Madigan also seems to suggest the GovJunk $10O million effort to ride to prosperity via trashing Madigan was a total failure. It will be interesting to see where Spanky Baise and the Think Like West Indiana brain trust turns next.


  5. - Hilarious - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 10:12 am:

    True Madigan fading but it would take a New York min. to remind everyone what a disaster he and his team have been for the state… just check out today’s new revelations. Wonder what JB (J.B.) has to say….


  6. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 10:14 am:

    Not good for the governor who was just elected.


  7. - lakeside - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 10:16 am:

    Poll: IL voters disapprove of Trump, largely unaware of what happens in state government.


  8. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 10:16 am:

    If I remember correctly, Pritzker’s approval/disapproval numbers weren’t all that great during the gubernatorial campaign. But he crushed the incumbent.

    As for Madigan, he’ll take 74 House Democrats and the former governor getting creamed over a better approval rating. He’s a glorified state rep, only having to worry about winning his district as far as approval/disapproval ratings. He does great there. It’s like Mitch McConnell. Maybe he’s hated, but he wins where it counts.


  9. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 10:20 am:

    So Baise’s dark money group commissioned a poll from Baise’s political consulting firm that was negative for the guy Baise is trying to knock down on a graduated income tax.

    Color me shocked.


  10. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 10:22 am:

    That group of 41% don’t pay any attention to politics.


  11. - lake county democrat - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 10:26 am:

    Defining your opponent early is important - ask Mitt Romney how saving his ammo worked out. Pro-progressive tax groups should start spending on tv/radio now.


  12. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 10:27 am:

    ===So Baise’s dark money group commissioned a poll from Baise’s political consulting firm that was negative for the guy Baise is trying to knock down on a graduated income tax===

    And either didn’t poll or didn’t release any results on that graduated income tax. Hmm.


  13. - cannon649 - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 10:28 am:

    Buzz Word JB is now going to have to produce. He needs to get very specific quickly with some results- bashing the last guys does not make it now

    MJM at 18% after all those decades


  14. - Cheryl44 - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 10:34 am:

    Someone please explain to me how their dislike of Madigan changes anything if they don’t live in his district.


  15. - Notorious RBG - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 10:35 am:

    I’d love to see what the questions were and how they were phrased too…


  16. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 10:38 am:

    ===This should serve as a wakeup call. JB is not being judged against Rauner anymore. He’s it. He’s the man. The buck stops squarely on his desk.===

    - Norseman - is all over this, and - Wordslinger - breaks down the “issues” with this poll brilliantly to the political messaging.

    To all that, and to the Post,

    Pritzker is now being framed with this #FakePoll and message that the work needing to be done will impact Pritzker, and further, even with Trump in the White House, these state issues, Pritzker’s own numbers will be his to own, as well as these policies that may negatively impact him (or not).

    The attempt, left-handed as it is, to say “governors own”… yeah, they know that, they ran a whole Skyhook in Reverse based on that.

    The reality is the misleadingly way Baise and Co want to cook the poll to askew the actions after the obvious is seen.


  17. - Honeybear - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 10:42 am:

    “but his own voters. He has to deliver for his mandate.”

    Exactly
    Yet, how can he do that without
    a complete and loyal team pulling for him.
    BPIA™
    It is not enough to have Directors and COS
    You must find and utilize the loyal
    Still left
    within the Agencies
    BPIA™
    Are entirely ignoring the remaining loyal
    Who for the most part are left hanging.
    No contact
    No communication
    It’s disrespectful to say the least.
    And THAT gets right back to their Reps and Sen.
    and that BPIA™
    is a problem for you
    when you want to do something and you need votes.
    So while you wait for a budget
    before you offer employment to fill the vacancies because you want “job security” for them.
    Your “Chiefs” (Navy NCO) are walking away.
    BPIA™
    Do you have any idea what your current Chiefs went through during Rauner praying for JB?
    JB is now Governor
    and you BPIA™
    are blowing the window for gathering support.
    Is your intension to have a 100% hostile workforce, union and management?
    It makes it impossible to execute policy, statute and law.
    It makes legislators look feckless because they can’t get their qualified and loyal constituents into open positions in state government.
    They don’t forget who made them look bad.
    This does not create trust
    This does not get votes
    This only creates resentment.
    And job insecurity,
    This exacerbates
    “Why would you ever want to work for government”
    Even Rauner had positions filled by now.
    And he overtly was trying to limit government.
    Do not mess with those
    Who know where the bodies are buried.


  18. - Jibba - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 10:49 am:

    Baise can go waste his money all day. A poll on gubernatorial performance a month into the term? Hogwash. But Rich and others are right. JB need to get his agenda passed, perform basic duties, and get the word out. Time’s a-wastin.’


  19. - Anon - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 10:57 am:

    JB immediately proposing to cut the pension payment by almost a billion dollars to “save” the state money sent the biggest message possible that he is just more of the same can kicking we hate, so there is no point in having hope in him.

    It was like an own goal in soccer, he popped the air out of his balloon before it ever even took off by doing that.

    Pension payment cuts, higher taxes, all jb did was throw a wet blanket on his administration.

    No one should be surprised his approval is falling so quickly.


  20. - Lucky Pierre - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 10:57 am:

    54% of Illinois voters chose JB and now 37% approve of his performance so far.

    Not surprising Republicans don’t approve but only 29% of independents is by far the most eye opening.

    Nothing so far about reaching across the aisle, no pro business olive braces coming any time soon.

    Maybe JB can acknowledge the state’s needs are frequently in conflict with the Cook County progressives wish list.


  21. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 11:09 am:

    –Baise can go waste his money all day.–

    It ain’t his money and I imagine he’s doing quite well with it.


  22. - Blue Dog Dem - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 11:21 am:

    You aint seen nothing yet.


  23. - Ducky LaMoore - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 11:23 am:

    Trump is unpopular. Madigan is unpopular. Pritzker is middling. Did we really need a poll to tell us that? Not really.


  24. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 11:24 am:

    “Maybe JB can acknowledge the state’s needs are frequently in conflict with the Cook County progressives wish list.”

    Definitely not when it comes to revenue and marijuana legalization. The state needs the rich to pay more taxes as a top priority. We had a horrible approach the last four years. A multimillionaire taxed at the same state rate as everyone else caused the worst per capita damage in trying to gouge middle class workers and strip their rights.

    Marijuana legalization is a big and doable accomplishment, with a 14-vote cushion in the House, a 10-vote cushion in the Senate and some GOP support. It would benefit us in many ways.


  25. - Pick a Name - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 11:44 am:

    Grandson, please define “rich” in the state of Illinois.


  26. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 11:49 am:

    ===…define “rich” in the state of Illinois.===

    (Sigh)

    This will be decided by the GA and then the voters, if the constitutional amendment gets there.


  27. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 11:56 am:

    LP

    I always find it amusing when you talk about poll numbers given that you chose to completely ignore poll numbers for Governor Rauner while he was in office. Poll numbers aren’t really all that important to you - until they are.


  28. - Angry Republican - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 11:58 am:

    Incredible. Pritzker’s job approval rating is nearly IDENTICAL to Rauner’s in March 2015. Not a very good start for our savior.


  29. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 12:01 pm:

    ===nearly IDENTICAL to Rauner’s in March 2015===

    I’m betting there will be no subsequent 2-year impasse, a massive war with organized labor, etc. however.


  30. - Da Big Bad Wolf - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 12:02 pm:

    Rich has a point. Why no poll about the fair tax CA, especially since Basie is trying to defeat it?

    Why bother with a popularity poll, since a person could dislike Pritzker but be for the fair tax, or like Pritzker and be against the fair tax. Or like Trump and Pritzker and be against the fair tax. All sorts of combinations out there.


  31. - City Zen - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 12:11 pm:

    ==Why no poll about the fair tax CA==

    Good point. The question would read: “Are you in favor of a graduated tax system if it means you would pay more in taxes?”


  32. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 12:14 pm:

    ===The question would read: “Are you in favor of a graduated tax system if it means you would pay more in taxes?”===

    This is called a “push poll” question.

    Also, I’m sure the GA will find a way where it will show not “all” will be paying “more”


  33. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 12:17 pm:

    “… a massive war with organized labor, etc. however.”

    Rich, what does your statement mean?
    I think you are implying JB and the unions will get along get for the next 4 years. Right???


  34. - Mama - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 12:25 pm:

    Maybe the question should read:

    “Are you in favor of a graduated tax system if it means you would only pay a little more in taxes if you make less than $100,000. a year?” Here are all of the things you would gain from those taxes: Better roads and safe bridges, safer communities, better schools, healthcare, etc., etc..


  35. - Da Big Bad Wolf - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 12:39 pm:

    ==I think you are implying JB and the unions will get along get for the next 4 years. Right???==

    There’s a lot of area between getting along and having a massive war. Lol.


  36. - Da Big Bad Wolf - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 12:46 pm:

    Or how about this: “Are you in favor of a graduated tax system if it means you would pay more in taxes and Greg Baise and the Idea Illinois gang has to move to Indiana?”
    That would work.


  37. - JS Mill - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 12:49 pm:

    =I always find it amusing when you talk about poll…=

    He is a hypocrite and wants to welch on the states fiscal responsibilities.

    = Not a very good start for our savior.=

    @Angry Republican- great name, is there any other kind of republican these days? I guess”irrelevant republican” is pretty accurate as well.


  38. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 12:57 pm:

    “There’s a lot of area between getting along and having a massive war. Lol.”

    Agreed. Pritzker is the employer, so differences are already built in. It’s virtually certain that he won’t wage war like his predecessor, whose pathological hatred of unions engulfed the entire state.

    We added a billionaire from last year. A list came out showing the number of Illinois billionaires—lots of Pritzkers on the list. It’s noble of the governor to push for a higher state income tax for himself, something that should reflect well to many others.


  39. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 1:05 pm:

    I’d love to see how the state graduated income tax doesn’t hurt the middle class. The median family income in Illinois is $80k. It’s higher in Chicago metro.


  40. - M - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 1:12 pm:

    I hope JB’s hires staff who are good with math and who can hit the floor running, but most of all they need to understand state government operates differently than the private sector.


  41. - Lucky Pierre - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 1:14 pm:

    It’s noble of the governor to push for a higher state income tax for himself, something that should reflect well to many others.

    LOL, how about repatriation of off shore billions to start?

    JB is worth $3.4 billion but magically only declared income of $50 million in 2017 and $15 million in 2016.

    Governor Rauner is not a billionaire but declared income of $188 million in 2015, $91 million in 2016 and $54 million in 2017.

    See anything wrong with this picture?

    https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-met-bruce-rauner-jb-pritzker-tax-returns-20181016-story.html


  42. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 1:16 pm:

    ==what does your statement mean?==

    Would you like him to speak slower? I thought it was pretty clear. And I think you do too. You’re just trying to be cute.

    ==I think you are implying JB and the unions will get along get for the next 4 years. Right???==

    Yeah. That’s exactly what he said. /s/


  43. - Mama - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 1:18 pm:

    “There’s a lot of area between getting along and having a massive war. Lol.”

    LOL! You got that right, but remember one gets better results using honey than vinegar. Right?


  44. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 1:18 pm:

    LP:

    Rauner isn’t the Governor anymore. I think it’s time for you to move on. You shouldn’t copy and paste your talking points from the last 4 years. Get new ones. Be original for once.


  45. - Mama - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 1:24 pm:

    Sorry Demoralized. I forgot the little ‘/s’ sign in my comment about JB and the unions getting along.


  46. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 1:25 pm:

    ===Governor Rauner is not a billionaire but declared income of $188 million in 2015, $91 million in 2016 and $54 million in 2017.===

    That Rauner phony blind trust made millions, lol


  47. - A 400lb. Guy on a bed - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 1:29 pm:

    Denoralzed

    Haven’t you figured it out? LP posts so the IPI won’t have to pay for advertising. Pl


  48. - Lucky Pierre - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 1:41 pm:

    in 2016 these Chicago athletes all declared higher incomes than billionaire JB Pritzker’s $15 million

    Dwyane Wade- $35 million
    James Shields-$21 million
    Jimmy Butler- $21 million
    John Lackey-$16 million
    Jay Cutler- $16 million
    Jason Heyward- $15 million
    Jonathon Toews- $15 million

    Have some consistency about outrage at the wealthy 1.4% guys

    if you didn’t back off your ideological soulmates who clearly are much worse you would have a lot more credibility


  49. - Da Big Bad Wolf - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 1:44 pm:

    ==I’d love to see how the state graduated income tax doesn’t hurt the middle class.==

    That’s easy to figure out. Changing the constitution so that Illinois has graduated taxes is one action.

    Raising taxes is another action. Or lowering taxes. Or doing nothing.

    Having graduated income tax by itself isn’t the same as raising taxes. There would have to be a bill for raising taxes and if that bill is unpalatable to many people it won’t survive.


  50. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 1:48 pm:

    Looks like a job for BPIA.


  51. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 1:48 pm:

    “Governor Rauner is not a billionaire but declared income of $188 million in 2015, $91 million in 2016 and $54 million in 2017.”

    While he waged war on unions and workers making only tens of thousands of dollars a year. That’s grossly unbecoming, and he got what he deserved last November (speaking of personal polling numbers). We Ask America, ironically and very happily, called the race at 7:01 pm, one minute after polls closed.


  52. - jim - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 1:53 pm:

    “18% of Illinois voters have a favorable opinion of Madigan.”
    That’s amazingly high. Color me surprised.


  53. - City Zen - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 1:57 pm:

    ==James Shields-$21 million==

    How much did Fernando Tatis Jr make?


  54. - Angry Republican - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 2:07 pm:

    @JS Mill - if you were a Republican in IL, you would be angry too. Seriously. Nearly two decades of ineptitude by party leaders.


  55. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 2:14 pm:

    ===Nearly two decades of ineptitude by party leaders.===

    26 years of controlling the mansion, controlled the Illinois Senate thru the ‘90s, Fitzgerald and Kirk as US Senators, i don’t think two decades is at all accurate, unless you want “purity and majority” which is a grossly inept thought here in Illinois for conservative Republicans.


  56. - Lucky Pierre - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 2:24 pm:

    What do the Democratic voters have to be happy about?

    Decades of unbalanced budgets aka deferred tax hikesj ust to keep their special interest groups happy?


  57. - Skeptic - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 2:28 pm:

    “Nothing so far about reaching across the aisle,” So all those Republicans on working committees and running agencies are…?


  58. - Last Bull Moose - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 2:33 pm:

    Some Republicans fall into the discouraged and disheartened classification. Between Rauner and Trump, our party has been badly damaged.

    At the national level the party of Lincoln looks more like the party of George Wallace. Locally they refuse to recognize that the state needs revenue to fund its core functions.

    I fear a lurch to the left because of the collapse of the right. Pragmatists have little role to play.


  59. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 4:55 pm:

    “Pragmatists have little role to play.”

    That’s sad. Where are the moderates and the politicians who are not against so much? The previous governor tried to pass himself off as a moderate but he was an anti-union, anti-tax zealot. The irony of those who hated moderates but supported the last governor is he was worse than anybody, and mean, too. What kind of person makes $188 million in a year and kicks his workforce in the groin on the first day of contract negotiations?


  60. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Mar 6, 19 @ 7:21 pm:

    Surprised to see how unpopular Pritzker is. Of he’s not as unpopular as Trump, but that would be almost impossible.


  61. - wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 7, 19 @ 8:59 am:

    –“Pragmatists have little role to play.”–

    A handful of House Republicans were the deciders in ending Rauner’s hostage-taking. Playing a role or sitting on the sidelines is a choice.

    It’s a lot easier to remain “pure” and sit on the sidelines.


  62. - WWG1WGA - Friday, Mar 8, 19 @ 2:19 pm:

    Well if you take into account bought and illegal votes in Chicago this might account for how Pritzker got in and his low approval rating now. I saw Pritzker is proposing 250mil for the homeless. Is this to house the homeless in his hotels and he gets the kick back? #MAGA turn Illinois red


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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