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Dueling polls in city treasurer’s race

Friday, Mar 8, 2019

* From Melissa Conyears-Ervin’s campaign this morning…

Chicago City Treasurer candidate Melissa Conyears-Ervin holds a double-digit lead over her opponent leading into the April 2nd election. A recent poll conducted by GBA Strategies, shows 46 percent of respondents voting for Melissa compared to 36 percent voting for her opponent, increasing her vote share significantly from the primary election.

“Melissa’s calls for transparency, responsible investment, and increased access to financial institutions in underserved communities resonates with voters throughout the electorate,” said Nick Wilbat, Melissa Conyears-Ervin’s Campaign Manager. “As the only candidate who has walked in the shoes of every day Chicagoans, Melissa’s vision for the city is especially important for minority voters who are often underbanked and unbanked at a disproportionate rate.”

Melissa has received extremely strong support from African Americans, among whom she leads 70 – 14 percent. She also leads with Hispanics, a pivotal voting bloc, by 44 – 37 percent. On the heels of an endorsement from her former opponent for City Treasurer, Peter Gariepy, who won 14 percent of the vote on February 26th, Melissa holds a 53 – 29 percent lead over her opponent with Gariepy voters.

The polling memo is here.

Conyears-Ervin won first place in Round One with 44.3 percent, Pawar was second with 41.6 and Gariepy was last with 14.1.

* From Ameya Pawar’s campaign this afternoon…

Progressive candidate for City Treasurer Ameya Pawar and his opponent are in a dead heat heading into the April runoff election, a new poll shows. In a survey of likely voters conducted by Anzalone Liszt Grove from March 4-7, both candidates received 34 percent of the vote with 32 percent undecided.

Key Findings

Pawar is tied with Conyears-Ervin. Both candidates hold 34% of the vote; Conyears-Ervin leads among African Americans while Pawar wins Latinos (40% Pawar / 32% Conyears-Ervin) and whites (45% Pawar / 22% Conyears-Ervin). Pawar has a 27-point lead among white women and leads on the Lakefront, the Northwest side, and the South/Southwest side.

Pawar leads among the most likely voters. Among voters most likely and most enthusiastic to turn out in this election, as judged by a combination of past voting behavior and likelihood to vote today, Pawar leads by four points (37% Pawar / 33% Conyears-Ervin). […]

The following findings are based off a survey of n=502 likely April 2019 municipal election voters conducted March 4-7, 2019. The survey’s margin of error is +4.4% and higher among subgroups.

I searched my inbox for more news on these candidates and found nothing recent. From the Google

A vanquished candidate for city treasurer on Tuesday endorsed Melissa Conyears-Ervin in the April 2 runoff, portraying Ald. Ameya Pawar (47th) as a publicity hound whose activist ideas would put Chicago taxpayers at risk.

“The city treasurer’s office is not about headlines and hashtags. … It’s not a matter of crazy ideas and personal beliefs or setting yourself up for something else,” Peter Gariepy said.

Gariepy said he is endorsing Conyears-Ervin “without reservation” and plans to spend the next four weeks helping her get elected.

…Adding… Good stuff…



- Posted by Rich Miller        

10 Comments »
  1. - The Real Captain - Friday, Mar 8, 19 @ 1:06 pm:

    For years I have put my money on Brian Stryker and the team at Anzalone Liszt Grove. Best in the business and never off.


  2. - Anonymous - Friday, Mar 8, 19 @ 1:21 pm:

    Gariepy is a member of the East Village Association - a very reactionary neighborhood group that holds sway.


  3. - Hyperbolic Chamber - Friday, Mar 8, 19 @ 1:31 pm:

    Given that universes of likely voters led to a reduction of vote share from the primary for both candidates in one poll and one of the two in the other, how big of a bump in turnout would this translate into?


  4. - Just Me 2 - Friday, Mar 8, 19 @ 1:32 pm:

    Pawar’s entire campaign is about giving away taxpayer money. Never sounded like the correct role for the Treasurer.


  5. - Grand Avenue - Friday, Mar 8, 19 @ 1:42 pm:

    Rep Ervin will win the black wards, Alderman Pawar will win the white wards, both should advertise heavily on Telemundo & Univision


  6. - City Zen - Friday, Mar 8, 19 @ 1:46 pm:

    Pawar is the like the mad scientist wanting to move his laboratory from the castle on the hill into Fermilab.


  7. - Grand Avenue - Friday, Mar 8, 19 @ 1:47 pm:

    From my experience in Chicago campaigns, I really have not seen voters for an also-ran candidate in the first round following the also-ran’s endorsement in the second round. My hunch is that the majority of Gariepy’s voters will go to Pawar despite his endorsing Conyears-Ervin. Turnout will be higher in the runoff and I think the race will be decided by the 100k-200k extra voters who come out in April that didn’t vote in February.


  8. - Cheryl44 - Friday, Mar 8, 19 @ 1:53 pm:

    Pasar is my alderman. I find he has spent money pretty well in the ward.


  9. - Cheryl44 - Friday, Mar 8, 19 @ 1:54 pm:

    Stupid autocorrect. At least I caught it before it posted that Oscar is my alderman.


  10. - Boone's is Back - Friday, Mar 8, 19 @ 3:12 pm:

    There has been some awesome data mapping going on during this election cycle. Kudos to the data nerds out there.


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