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Question of the day

Friday, Apr 19, 2019

* The 6th CD is represented by freshman Democrat Sean Casten…

* The Question: Her chances? Don’t forget to explain your answer, please.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

40 Comments
  1. - Grand Avenue - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:05 pm:

    2020 isn’t gonna be a good year to run as a Republican in that District. Every question you would get will be about Trump.


  2. - Lord of the Fries - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:05 pm:

    She has a chance to win. Let’s not forget this districts history. It will be an uphill climb but she is who the national GOP needs right now. Tough but doable.


  3. - Evanstonian - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:06 pm:

    2%

    Mostly because I’m assuming she’ll have to engage substantively on the issues at some point. She wasn’t exactly called upon to do this very much the last 5 years, so I’m guessing it ain’t exactly a strength.


  4. - MakePoliticsCoolAgain - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:06 pm:

    -Cash Bar Available-

    This line says it all…


  5. - Cheryl44 - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:08 pm:

    Hahahahahahahahaha


  6. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:09 pm:

    I’ll give her a slipper’s chance on a wet floor… she’ll fall to Underwood.

    1 in 3 chance.


  7. - DuPage Saint - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:09 pm:

    I hope slim and none. I bet lots of Republican losers from that district will be looking at that race. Jeanne Ives? This will be a race of true believers and I think Castin will b able to sleep easy. Why not just bring in Allen Keyes? Maybe Cronin might run although the way DyPage cut up by redistricting maybe he is not in the 6th


  8. - Wheaton Warrior - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:11 pm:

    It’s all about money. Bruce and her won the district before. So there is definitely a path. Castens fundraising was average last quarter.

    That to me says she can win. But will GOP kill itself with primary battles? If so, Casten wins.


  9. - Flynn's Mom - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:12 pm:

    Well now we know what Slip and Sue is up to. Where has Raunie been?


  10. - Anon E Moose - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:12 pm:

    Can’t be worse than Rauner


  11. - Huh? - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:15 pm:

    Hell has frozen over. So can’t use that saying. I’d say about the same chance as the US winning the cricket world cup championship.


  12. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:17 pm:

    Ugh. Casten. My bad.

    Casten represents the district now, better than Roscam… and better than Slip and Sue and her thoughts, as the GOP will face health care and taxes as issues with POTUS on the ballot.

    Apologies.


  13. - Grand Avenue - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:19 pm:

    Republican Money will be focused on keeping the Senate majority and Trump winning battleground states, I just don’t see the fundraising materializing for a Republican in this race.


  14. - Jocko - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:19 pm:

    If she were at Arlington, I put her at 8 to 1.

    In Illinois, Bruce and Trump are both millstones.


  15. - Rich Miller - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:20 pm:

    ===Republican Money will be focused on===

    The NRCC will raise plenty of money.


  16. - 6th District Progressive - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:31 pm:

    I don’t think she has much of a chance.

    Trump will almost certainly lose this district, and I doubt there will be a significant number of Democratic president/Sanguinetti voters to make up the difference. Rauner may have won the 6th last year, however that was largely due to Pritzker being a poor fit for the collars. Rauner is not exactly popular here and were she to run it would open all sorts of attacks on the Rauner administration’s shortcomings.

    And that’s not getting into Sanguinetti herself. I have yet to see anything to suggest she would be a compelling candidate to Casten/Clinton voters. She is to the right of Rauner on certain issues (namely abortion), and I doubt that will play well here especially with women voters.

    She also has to worry about the primary. If Ives or some other scorched earth conservative jumps in, then Sanguinetti will have a real fight on her hands.


  17. - lakeside - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:32 pm:

    Very low.

    If I were Casten, I’d just run as many short clips of that final Rauner/Sanguinetti ad as possible, where they look like they’ve just finished an 8 ball.


  18. - One hand //ing - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:32 pm:

    Sanguinetti and Casten are flawed candidates. But this election will be a referendum on Trump and his enablers. Sanguinetti’s anti-choice politics won’t help in that district either.


  19. - Fav Human - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:34 pm:

    Reasonable. Sure, he will try to hang Trump on her, and if she is smart, she will hang AOC and some others on him.

    I would say quite winnable if the campaign is good. His last time wasn’t that great, and while Roskam tried hard, I can’t say his was anything to brag about either.


  20. - I live in the district - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:34 pm:

    I give Evelyn the win at 51-49. The district leans Republican, but it was poor messaging trying to tie Casten to Madigan, coupled with an anti-Roskam bias in 18. Change the message, tying Casten to AOC coupled with a clean primary and Evelyn is a winner in 2020.


  21. - PublicServant - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:35 pm:

    Should have at least offered a means-tested bar to those with proper ID


  22. - Rich Miller - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:48 pm:

    ===largely due to Pritzker being a poor fit for the collars===

    Pritzker won all but one collar county. Rauner won that district because it is gerrymandered to favor a Republican.


  23. - 6th District Progressive - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:52 pm:

    ^^Pritzker still managed to underperform the other statewide candidates in the collar counties, as well as Democratic congressional candidates.


  24. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:54 pm:

    ===Pritzker still managed to underperform the other statewide candidates in the collar counties, as well as Democratic congressional candidates.===

    … and yet Pritzker defeated a sitting Republican Governor by the largest margin in over 100 years.


  25. - Rahm's Parking Meter - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:55 pm:

    Nopeeeeeeeeee. Not happening.


  26. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:58 pm:

    ===The district leans Republican, but it was poor messaging trying to tie Casten to Madigan, coupled with an anti-Roskam bias in 18. Change the message, tying Casten to AOC coupled with a clean primary and Evelyn is a winner in 2020.===

    You know Trump will be on the ballot… right?


  27. - Three Dimensional Checkers - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 2:59 pm:

    Low. Trump on the ballot, and people are going to remember Rauner.

    How can we miss you if you won’t go away?


  28. - Skeptic - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 3:04 pm:

    “Evelyn sat idly by while Bruce Rauner drove Illinois to the brink of junk bond status. What was she thinking?”

    25% chance.


  29. - Anonymous - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 3:23 pm:

    ==“Evelyn sat idly by while Bruce Rauner drove Illinois to the brink of junk bond status. What was she thinking?”==

    “Sat idly by.” I don’t think so. She was Lt. Gov. She helped guide the SS Disaster that was Rauner’s term.


  30. - I live in the district - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 3:35 pm:

    “You know Trump will be on the ballot… right? ”

    I do, and that is a factor - but working that election, and the emotion of the voters - he might as well been on the ballot in ‘18 as well. Take away the Pritzker VBM program, a lot of incumbent D’s on the ballot being challenged by underfunded R’s with no name ID, and you might swing the I/soft R vote to Evelyn rather than a straight ticket D - I will stick with my 51-49 Sanguinetti


  31. - Annonin' - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 3:36 pm:

    As GovJunk lite Gov there is zero chance but should help Ds up and down ballot in the region. Great gift.


  32. - A Jack - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 3:44 pm:

    Free alcohol probably would have improved her chances.


  33. - Amalia - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 3:56 pm:

    she will get about 40 % of the vote. she has name recognition, there are still lots of Republicans. but she will still lose.


  34. - don the legend - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 3:58 pm:

    Sorry. Anonymous at 3:23 was me.


  35. - A State Employee Guy - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 4:03 pm:

    50-50. Candidate with name recognition and what I’m sure will be a truckload of financial support going up against a newbie who hasn’t had time to plant his flag by doing anything of substance in a district that only went 50% for Clinton in 2016?

    Steel yourselves, Casten campaign. Gonna be a rough one.


  36. - Rich Miller - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 4:04 pm:

    ===50% for Clinton in 2016?===

    She won by 7 points.


  37. - The Dude Abides - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 4:06 pm:

    I’ll offer some free political advice. Don’t have Rauner with you when you campaign. Do not mention your former relationship with him ever.


  38. - A 400lb. Guy on a bed - Friday, Apr 19, 19 @ 4:19 pm:

    She can run on her accomplishments with the Rauner administration.


  39. - A State Employee Guy - Monday, Apr 22, 19 @ 9:22 am:

    ==She won by 7 points.===

    Against the worst candidate the Republican Party has ever produced, but okay.

    Worth nothing though: 4 years prior, the district went Republican by 8 points. And 4 years before that, it went Democrat. And 4 years before that, it went Republican.

    The district is far from a bastion of Democratic support. It is in play.


  40. - Anonymous - Monday, May 6, 19 @ 5:47 pm:

    Jenna Ives should run for the US Senate in 2020


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