* Illinois Policy Institute…

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker on June 6 signed a 2020 state budget that will cost $40.6 billion in general revenues, as much as $1.3 billion more than the state will bring in for the fiscal year that starts July 1.

The Illinois House and Senate passed the budget, Senate Bill 262, on bipartisan votes of 83-35 and 40-19. Despite public claims from both Republicans and Democrats, the 1,581-page spending plan is out of balance by between $574 million and $1.3 billion, depending on the optimism used in the revenue estimate.

* Here’s their chart…

Their MCO tax estimate is about $100 million too low.

Their “optimistic” baseline revenue forecast for Fiscal Year 2020 of $38.956 billion is only $120 million above the projected revenues for Fiscal Year 2019, after factoring in the new revenue enhancements. Seems to be a stretch.

The official revenue projection is $40.187 billion, which is $1.342 billion above the current fiscal year’s income. That FY20 projection includes $850 million in natural revenue growth, which is not specifically included in the Institute’s chart. [Actually, it is included.]

And their spending estimate of $40.6 billion is about $500 million higher than the official projection.

       

26 Comments - RNUG - Thursday, Jun 13, 19 @ 10:21 am: It may not totally add up, but for Illinois this is about as close as you get to balanced. - jname - Thursday, Jun 13, 19 @ 10:24 am: Are we surprised they messed up the numbers? - The Doc - Thursday, Jun 13, 19 @ 10:28 am: IPI (again) making a strong case for additional revenue, assuming their projections are made in good faith ;) - efudd - Thursday, Jun 13, 19 @ 10:28 am: Hey, Greg Bishop has to have something to “report” on the next few months. - City Zen - Thursday, Jun 13, 19 @ 10:29 am: Can someone wake the comptroller and tell her the CAFR from the previous fiscal year is due before the end of the current fiscal year? - cover - Thursday, Jun 13, 19 @ 10:29 am: So the Illinois Policy Institute used incorrect figures and then bashed you for not accepting their straw man argument? Seems par for the course for those guys. - d. p. gumby - Thursday, Jun 13, 19 @ 10:30 am: picky, picky, picky… - Whatever - Thursday, Jun 13, 19 @ 10:34 am: Using numbers that are different from the “official” numbers is perfectly fine, but only if you explain the differences and why you’re right and the official numbers are wrong. Just putting them out there isn’t enough. - Smitty Irving - Thursday, Jun 13, 19 @ 10:35 am: Let me guess - the IPI budget “experts” are the ideological descendants of Arthur Laffer, David Stockman, and Mitch Daniels … /s - Robert the Bruce - Thursday, Jun 13, 19 @ 10:35 am: If Illinois had legalized prop betting on revenue forecasts, I’d love to bet anyone from IPI on which revenue forecast comes closer to actual fy20 revenue. - Anyone Remember - Thursday, Jun 13, 19 @ 10:37 am: City Zen - Are we sure IOC isn’t waiting on an external audit (retirement systems, post employment benefits, etc.)? - BMC - Thursday, Jun 13, 19 @ 11:32 am: In related news, CAFR’s (which would tell us who is right in regards to this type of argument) are due 180 days after the fiscal year ends or 12/31/2018 for the 2018 report. Unfortunately, the Comptroller’s Office and Auditor (not just their fault) doesn’t have the 2018 CAFR posted yet. It’s almost 6 months late at this point. This report is habitually late every year, and we must do better. We are one of the worst in the nation when it comes to balancing budgets and timely financial reporting. https://www.auditor.illinois.gov/Audit-Reports/Comptroller-Internal-Controls-and-Compliance.asp - Nonbeliever - Thursday, Jun 13, 19 @ 11:33 am: did anyone really believe that Pritzker and the DEMS would pass a balanced budget even with increased revenues. Certainly this will be heavily used by those who oppose the Graduated Income Tax. The message- no amount of money will satisfy them. Will this message stick? With many it will. Enough for it to fail. November 2020 its a long time away. - Shytown - Thursday, Jun 13, 19 @ 11:34 am: Not exactly shocking to see IPI attempting to undermine the governor‘s budget projections. - Fixer - Thursday, Jun 13, 19 @ 12:06 pm: Funny to watch them delete an entire thread where they leaked subscriber content. Weren’t they overly concerned not too long ago about leaks from their Lincoln Lobby page? - James - Thursday, Jun 13, 19 @ 12:10 pm: Fixer- But Rich Miller literally posted a private post them here not too long ago. Come on man. We need to stop with the double standards. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Jun 13, 19 @ 12:18 pm: ===But Rich Miller literally posted a private post them here not too long ago=== That wasn’t paid content. I have one basic rule for subscribers: Don’t forward or post subscriber content. Violations can result in cancellation. It’s clear and it’s longstanding. - James - Thursday, Jun 13, 19 @ 12:22 pm: Rich- I understand that but you can’t decide to only follow your rules. In their page it says do not share their posts with people not in the group. You did that. I AM NOT A FAN OF ILLINOIS POLICY. A am a fan of what is right though And please don’t delete this post. Just because you disagree and don’t approve does not give you the right to just block comments like that. You keep doing that. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Jun 13, 19 @ 12:23 pm: ===In their page it says do not share their posts with people not in the group. You did that=== I did not do that. - Anyone Remember - Thursday, Jun 13, 19 @ 12:26 pm: BMC - When was the last time the CAFR was released on 12/31? - Rich Miller - Thursday, Jun 13, 19 @ 12:27 pm: ===Just because you disagree and don’t approve does not give you the right to just block comments=== This would be my website, dude. Private property. I have the right to do what I want. You have the right not to visit. - BMC - Thursday, Jun 13, 19 @ 1:02 pm: Prior to 2006. The best they ever did since then was two years ago when it was released on 3/7/2017. The median state finishes in 175 days, just under the 180 day requirement. https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1270&context=honors - Anyone Remember - Thursday, Jun 13, 19 @ 1:08 pm: BMC - Actually, FY 1999 released 12/30/1999; been late ever since. Only a few months late pre-ERI, post ERI very very late. While FYs 2006, 2013 & 2016 were released in the following February, 2008 was released 07/10/2009. - BMC - Thursday, Jun 13, 19 @ 1:26 pm: Anyone Remember- Thanks. I was going off of this page. Dates don’t match up. https://www.auditor.illinois.gov/Audit-Reports/Comptroller-Internal-Controls-and-Compliance.asp - Anyone Remember - Thursday, Jun 13, 19 @ 1:51 pm: BMC - Was using the dates from the actual reports, IOC website goes back to 1981 (which I think was the first “CAFR”) https://illinoiscomptroller.gov/financial-data/find-a-report/comprehensive-reporting/comprehensive-annual-financial-report-cafr/ - Michael - Friday, Jun 14, 19 @ 2:32 pm: Richie “My way or the high way” Miller can not take the heat. Yes, your website, very true. No one can dispute that, but you are making yourself out to be some glorified journalist, yet you are vicious on your approach. Take it easy dude. Imagine if real journalist were not well mannered. 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