It’s awful early for this, but here you go
Friday, Oct 25, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Betsy Londrigan campaign press release…
Today, The Cook Political Report announced their ratings change of Betsy’s race in Illinois’ 13th Congressional District from Lean Republican to Toss Up. In their write up of the report, Cook cited Betsy’s record of strong fundraising and multiple recent missteps by incumbent Republican Rodney Davis.
This ratings change reflects the continuing momentum behind Betsy’s candidacy. Betsy has received endorsements from EMILY’s List, End Citizens United, Planned Parenthood Action Fund, JStreet PAC, the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, the United Food and Commercial Workers, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, the Illinois Democratic County Chairs Association, and many other local and national organizations.
Cook Political Report IL-13 Write Up:
Londrigan impressed Democratic strategists by coming within 2,058 votes (less than one point) of knocking off GOP Rep. Rodney Davis in 2018. The race wasn’t initially in Democrats’ top tier of targets but the professional non-profit fundraiser raised $4.2 million and outspent the self-styled moderate incumbent. She barely stopped running and had $721,000 in the bank to the incumbent’s $905,000 at the end of September.
Londrigan comes across more crisply and seasoned than she did as a first-time candidate in 2018. She partially blames her narrow loss on unexpectedly long lines to vote at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign she says were caused by a GOP election administrator who has since left office. Driving out a large student vote in this college-heavy district is the key to Londrigan’s chances in 2020.
This race is already engaged: Democrats are hammering Davis for accepting an upgrade to fly first class during the government shutdown, taking corporate PAC checks and telling a Washington Post reporter “I don’t see what the big deal is, frankly” regarding President Trump’s proposed G-7 summit at Doral (Trump carried this seat by just five points in 2016). Davis hopes to be able to tie Londrigan to a more liberal nominee. It’s a Toss Up.
* Mark compares this ranking to the one Cook issued two years ago…
Thoughts?
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 25, 19 @ 2:57 pm:
Mr. Davis will have a whole year to:
1) Confirm his Trumpkin ways.
2) Haveta face “ I don’t see what the big deal is, frankly”
Should be an interesting race, frankly.
- Gohawks123 - Friday, Oct 25, 19 @ 2:58 pm:
keep drinking that trump cool-aid Rodney it seems to be helping a lot……
- John Lopez - Friday, Oct 25, 19 @ 2:58 pm:
The 14th district is still a toss up, and 8 candidates running, though IMHO only 4 at this point are viable due to fundraising and their support in this order 1) Jim Oberweis 2) Ted Gradel 3) Sue Rezin 4) Catalina Lauf. I believe any of the 4 can win the primary in March. Jerry Evans announced on Monday and too soon to see if he’ll be able to compete. James Marter, Anthony Catella and Danny Malouf proved they cannot compete, without major course-corrections.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Oct 25, 19 @ 3:04 pm:
I’m confused.
You have an incumbent give a gift like…
“I don’t see what the big deal is, frankly”
… and they’re worried about getting polling out?
Not a very thoughtful way to gin up some heat, but… “ok”
- Lord of the Fries - Friday, Oct 25, 19 @ 3:08 pm:
These handicappers are useful when it comes to looking at overall state of play for seats but because Cook moved it from lean R to toss up doesn’t mean Davis is in a worse spot today than he was yesterday.
The seat will be competitive but these ratings get changed all the time. I still think a presidential year helps Rodney. If he survived the “blue wave” he should do better when Rs are energized. Only time will tell.
- Norseman - Friday, Oct 25, 19 @ 3:11 pm:
We can hope this is presages a Davis defeat. His willingness to lie and deceive his constituents must have consequences.
- Randomly Selected - Friday, Oct 25, 19 @ 3:11 pm:
There was a lot of magic that came together for that race to end end up at the margin it did. Davis is in danger but I wouldn’t count him as being in a dogfight just yet.
- Just Observing - Friday, Oct 25, 19 @ 3:13 pm:
It will be very helpful for fundraising (for both sides).
- Blue Dog Dem - Friday, Oct 25, 19 @ 3:27 pm:
The trump economy will insure this seat stays GOP.
- Eire17 - Friday, Oct 25, 19 @ 3:42 pm:
Does this matter? Betsy came close last time. No reason to think it won’t be close this time.
- Ducky LaMoore - Friday, Oct 25, 19 @ 3:43 pm:
@Blue Dog
Yep. That 2% growth with trillion dollar deficits with a president underwater by 14 points will certainly keep it GOP………….
- Ron Burgundy - Friday, Oct 25, 19 @ 3:52 pm:
I think this is an accurate read. Very close last time and Rodney hasn’t done himself any favors lately.
- Pundent - Friday, Oct 25, 19 @ 3:59 pm:
=The trump economy will insure this seat stays GOP.=
That must be some crystal ball you have there. And since you seem to attribute the economy to Trump lock stock and barrel you’ll have no issue owning the downturn if it happens in the next 12 months.
- Blue Dog Dem - Friday, Oct 25, 19 @ 4:06 pm:
EL ducko. Tell me a dozen voters in Illinois that truly vote based on a deficit.
- Nick Name - Friday, Oct 25, 19 @ 4:07 pm:
It’s very early for this. Still…
Betsy can do herself a world of good by keeping track of every one of these missteps, spoken or otherwise, and hammering Davis on them. Every. Time. She speaks. And continuing to do so once she starts airing TV and radio commercials.
Turning the Cook Report from “toss-up” to “lean Dem” may hinge on her ability to both tie Davis to Trump and expose his gaffes, frankly.
- Blue Dog Dem - Friday, Oct 25, 19 @ 4:08 pm:
Pundent. Lower and middle class working folk are rolling. Steelworkers. UAW. Operators. Laborers. Carpenters. U name it.
- Honeybear - Friday, Oct 25, 19 @ 4:22 pm:
Yeah, Trump economy 78% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck.
Winning
- Lynn S. - Friday, Oct 25, 19 @ 4:26 pm:
That “GOP election official” didn’t just “leave office”. He and the rest of the Champaign County GOP got a pretty solid drubbing from voters because of their attempted overreach.