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Fun with numbers

Wednesday, Nov 27, 2019

* Center Square

A poll of Illinois residents found many think Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s progressive income tax proposal will have a negative effect on the state’s businesses, leading to layoffs or relocation in response to the higher rates.

The Illinois Business Association, a nonprofit business advocacy group, commissioned a poll by Chicago-based Ogden & Fry asking Illinois residents about how businesses will fare under Pritzker’s proposed graduated income rates, which are dependent on voters passing a ballot initiative in 2020.

Of 615 randomly sampled likely 2020 General Election voters on Nov. 15, 68 percent agreed with the statement that “Businesses will cut jobs, or relocate jobs out of state, and Illinois’ economy will suffer” under the proposed rates rather than create more jobs to grow the state’s economy.

Fifty-seven percent said they didn’t trust Illinois politicians, saying they though lawmakers would raise rates in the future beyond what was initially proposed.

Um, OK. First of all, if a pollster doesn’t disclose the percentage of landlines and mobile phone contacts, that raises a red flag, and this pollster does not do so. Robopolls can only legally contact landlines.

* Secondly, this is essentially a push poll. Here’s the setup to the first question

Q1: Governor Pritzker has proposed a new tax increase, the Fair Tax, that changes Illinois’ flat income tax to a progressive income tax that taxes higher levels of income at higher rates. It also increases taxes on corporations and small businesses. The governor says the tax increase is needed to help stabilize Illinois’ budget and grow the state economy. Opponents of the Fair Tax say that raising taxes on the wealthy and businesses will lead to job losses, jobs moving out of state, and economic stagnation.

No indication that the tax increase would be shouldered by just three percent of individual taxpayers. Big problem.

Now, here’s the question

Which of the following statements comes closest to your view, even if neither is one-hundred percent accurate?

Raising taxes on Illinois businesses is a good way to grow the state economy.

Raising taxes on Illinois businesses won’t lead to economic growth.

Um, OK.

* After two more such push questions, here’s the final question

Q4: Over the last decade, states with progressive income tax rates have seen slower growth in jobs and wages compared to states with flat tax rates or no state income taxes. In the most recent state to switch to a progressive income tax, middle class families have seen their taxes go up thirteen percent since it was enacted and the state lost 362,000 jobs. Knowing this, do you support or oppose adopting a progressive income tax?

    Support 23.3%
    Oppose 62.6%
    Undecided 14.0%

I’m surprised the support is as high as it is after all that.

* What this poll means is that if the opponents’ message has unfettered access to voters, their argument likely wins. But that won’t happen. The governor has almost unlimited money he can spend on his own arguments.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

49 Comments
  1. - Annonin - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 11:02 am:

    We agree with capt. Fax, as usual, 68% must have been shaved a lot. But hey it helps fill the pre Holiday space. Bet Ogden Fry is pleased as a pumpkin.


  2. - lake county democrat - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 11:06 am:

    In an era of big data, internet tracking, etc. I wonder 1) why would a person participate in a poll and 2) if the growing wariness of tracking/etc. is skewing the accuracy of polls.

    As for Pritzker, yes he has money to fight the ads, but he might take note of Mitt Romney’s experience: if you don’t counter early, you let your opponents define you. Harder to undue those first impressions. The weird thing is I heard a -lot- of radio ads championing a fair tax back when they voted to put the question on the ballot - did they think the battle was won?


  3. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 11:12 am:

    ===did they think the battle was won? ===

    They ran those ads to help boost the confidence of individual legislators during the legislative debate.


  4. - SSL - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 11:18 am:

    I don’t pay much attentuon to polls. Let’s just vote and see what happens.


  5. - Just Another Anon - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 11:20 am:

    >opponents’ message has unfettered access to voters, their argument likely wins.

    Stating the obvious Rich, when there is only one organized message, it always wins.

    The real question is one dueling polling. If the Gov has a poll that indicates another trend. What amounts to giving carte blanche taxing authority to the state is not going to poll well…


  6. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 11:27 am:

    ===If the Gov has a poll that indicates another trend===

    They never shared their numbers during the 2017-18 campaign and I seriously doubt they’ll do so with this issue.


  7. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 11:28 am:

    ===Stating the obvious Rich, when there is only one organized message, it always wins===

    I apparently have to state the obvious because one outlet didn’t seem to grasp it.


  8. - Seats - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 11:29 am:

    When do you think the Governor will begin making sure that surveys like this don’t become what voters believes to be true?

    January 2020? It feels like such an important part of his governorship that I’m curious to see just how hard he is going to have to fight to win the fight against the wealthy 3% who will be largely against it.


  9. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 11:48 am:

    === What this poll means is that if the opponents’ message has unfettered access to voters, their argument likely wins. But that won’t happen. The governor has almost unlimited money he can spend on his own arguments.===

    Great stuff there.

    I’ve approached this whole “thing” from this angle;

    The governor spent $300K a day to win, for 430+ days.

    The governor spent the price of a house… a day.

    Putting $1 million a week for 12 weeks in advertising, as a setup, and finishing as needed to close, who and what group is going to spend even close to that to say…

    “3% of Illinois taxpayers are getting a raw deal”

    … ‘cause if they don’t answer that 97% of the folks won’t see an increase, it won’t matter in the end.

    Pritzker is NOT going to be outspent in this endeavor.

    If anything you wanna ding, funding for this won’t be an issue.


  10. - Dave Fako / Fako Research & Strategies - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 12:01 pm:

    I am not commenting on this specific poll or issue, but this is a good opportunity to reiterate the importance and need for full and proper methodology disclosure for all polls, whether they are released publicly or only used internally. This is important to help assess the quality and reliability of polls along with other assessments of the data.

    We wrote about this topic in our June 2019 e-newsletter:

    https://conta.cc/2Re0cf6


  11. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 12:01 pm:

    This will be easy to debunk. All we have to do is look at our neighboring states that have a graduated income tax. They all have lower unemployment rates than we do. Vermont, the home of Bernie Sanders and a progressive income tax, has the lowest unemployment rate in the country right now, at 2.2%.

    https://www.deptofnumbers.com/unemployment/states/


  12. - Big Jer - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 12:08 pm:

    In Q4 they seem to trying to cherry pick data to suit their anti-tax narrative. Correlation does not always mean causation. Many issues in our society are complex and involve looking at things in context. There could have been other factors involved in the job losses or slower growth.

    I am so tired of the narrative pushed of jobs and taxes. To me equating jobs and taxes in this way is just simple extortion. Like corporations or the wealthy saying they will leave a state or country for lower taxes and hold “losing jobs” over the heads of states and taxpayers as a means of extorting favorable taxes.

    To those who complain about taxes and then if they do not get their way “take their ball and leave the playground” like some child:

    “There is nobody in this country who got rich on their own. Nobody. You built a factory out there - good for you. But I want to be clear. You moved your goods to market on roads the rest of us paid for. You hired workers the rest of us paid to educate. You were safe in your factory because of police forces and fire forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn’t have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory… Now look. You built a factory and it turned into something terrific or a great idea - God bless! Keep a hunk of it. But part of the underlying social contract is you take a hunk of that and pay forward for the next kid who comes along”

    I believe the average person does not realize how much wealth and money is flowing in our society.


  13. - A guy - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 12:18 pm:

    Wouldn’t defend this poll. Lots of problems with it.
    What this legislation would really do however, is remove the provision (and protection) of a flat rate tax from the ISC. That would open the opportunity to go well beyond the top 3% of earners in order to raise tax revenue. Our Legislature has shown no ability not to take advantage of that opportunity.
    It’s a confusing argument. Exactly what they hoped for.


  14. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 12:24 pm:

    === That would open the opportunity to go well beyond the top 3% of earners in order to raise tax revenue. Our Legislature has shown no ability not to take advantage of that opportunity.===

    How many times in the last 25 years has the tax rate rise?

    Further, what Governor is going to increase the progressive tax before 2023, at the earliest?

    The legislature had the power to raise taxes all along, why don’t they just raise taxes every single year?

    Ugh.


  15. - A guy - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 12:31 pm:

    ==How many times in the last 25 years has the tax rate rise?==

    You’ve made my point Silly Willy. The resistance was only because income tax had to be raised on “everyone”. Not with this mechanism. They can simply redefine “rich” once a year and work their way to the real honey pot of tax paying citizens. Mark my word, they’ll get there.
    Are you positing that the Legislature has resisted raising any taxes or just income taxes. They’ve taxed everything and anything they could with the exception of retirement income and services. That too will be in question going forward.


  16. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 12:39 pm:

    === Silly===

    Now who’s immature?

    === Not with this mechanism. They can simply redefine “rich” once a year and work their way to the real honey pot of tax paying citizens. Mark my word, they’ll get there.===

    Again, what governor is going to sign, yearly, a tax increase?

    ===Mark my word, they’ll get there.===

    They won’t. The politics alone won’t allow that.

    No one is going to do that, no legislature is going to vote to do it either.

    === Are you positing that the Legislature has resisted raising any taxes or just income taxes.===

    Reading is fundamental.

    How many times in the past 25 years has the tax been raised?

    Keep up.

    === They’ve taxed everything and anything they could with the exception of retirement income and services. That too will be in question going forward.====

    Retirement income?

    What governor is going to *sign* for retirement income? LOL

    Such the Raunerite/IPI talking points. Good on you to keep them up.


  17. - City Zen - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 12:42 pm:

    ==Vermont==

    Using the 2nd whitest state in America as the shining example of what Illinois should be? Hard pass.


  18. - Stuntman Bob's Brother - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 12:47 pm:

    ==Mark my word, they’ll get there==

    What is that old saying about Democracy being four wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for dinner?

    Although I understand both the need and the rationale for a graduated tax, I’ve always been in favor of a flat tax rate simply because it makes raising taxes a more difficult choice. We could, for instance (without a constitutional change), increase both the standard deduction and the flat tax rate, and accomplish much of what JB desires. Why don’t we?


  19. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 12:52 pm:

    === We could, for instance (without a constitutional change), increase both the standard deduction and the flat tax rate, and accomplish much of what JB desires. Why don’t we?===

    You can vote against the progressive income tax, try your approach with the new GA… or really see how the new rates will be.

    Same thing.

    They got 71/36… that’s how this works. Process.


  20. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 12:53 pm:

    === What is that old saying about Democracy being four wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for dinner?===

    Again, what governor and what GA is going to “continually” raise the tax…

    … how many times in the past 25 years has the tax been raised?


  21. - Blue Dog Dem - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 1:01 pm:

    Raising gas taxes. Liscence plate fees. Shows how much JB cares.


  22. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 1:08 pm:

    “Using the 2nd whitest state in America as the shining example of what Illinois should be? Hard pass.“

    Illinois shouldn’t strive to have the lowest unemployment rate in the country? Go ahead, make that argument.


  23. - SSL - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 1:14 pm:

    Gee, for a state where the politicians don’t like to raise taxes, we sure ended up with an overall high tax burden. Top ten performance without even trying.


  24. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 1:17 pm:

    - SSL -

    We’re discussing income tax here, not the overall,


  25. - Steve - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 1:21 pm:

    - SSL -

    That’s a very good point. We seem to get high taxes from people who don’t like raising taxes. Let’s hope for some major indictments in the next year . Public opinion might be a little different this time next year concerning the subject of taxes.


  26. - City Zen - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 1:41 pm:

    ==overall high tax burden==

    True. At the end of the day, it’s the total tax burden that matters. You can tax millionaires 100%, but if I’m still paying the shouldering the same high taxes after that, I’m no better off.


  27. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 1:43 pm:

    Indiana, the flat tax state that right wingers want Illinois to be, has a 3.2% unemployment rate. No neighbor state with a progressive tax has a higher unemployment rate except Wisconsin, at 3.3%. Michigan, another flat tax state, has a 4.1% unemployment rate—higher than ours.

    Kentucky, a state that switched from progressive to flat tax, has the highest unemployment rate of our neighbors now, at 4.3%. We have an example right next door to blow a hole in the propaganda that switching to a progressive tax will hurt us economically.


  28. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 1:44 pm:

    === You can tax millionaires 100%, but if I’m still paying the shouldering the same high taxes after that, I’m no better off.===

    In your child-like argument, the more revenue gained by “100%” would help in the overall situation, but you are arguing like a child and the “more revenue” part of your argument is ignored due to your … “because me” end of the bar rant.

    But, still no one has “found” the times the income tax was raised in 25 years?


  29. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 1:45 pm:

    ===it’s the total tax burden that matters===

    Yep, and a big reason for high local taxation is historically low statewide taxation. Some folks either deliberately forget that or just don’t know it.


  30. - Lucky Pierre - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 1:47 pm:

    Perhaps our billionaire Governor, who has taken extraordinary measures to shelter his wealth and lower his property taxes can explain why other wealthy people and businesses won’t follow his lead.

    He is a flawed messenger for the wealthy paying their fair share.

    His own spending plans make it obvious his promise to only raise taxes on the top 3% is a ruse.

    You moved your goods to market on roads the rest of us paid for?

    A fundamental misunderstanding of who actually pays most of the taxes pushed by Elizabeth Warren.

    She is half right, as a college professor with a 6- 10 million dollar net worth derived from a salary, she has undoubtedly paid a lot in income taxes over the years.

    Her target audience has a harder time making that argument.

    Every try getting blood out of a turnip?


  31. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 1:51 pm:

    Rich Miller, Capitol Fax Blog
    March 14, 2019

    “#TaxSplaining: Income tax hikes are historically rare here”

    === A history of persistent income tax hikes? The income tax was increased in 2011, partially rolled back in 2015 and partially restored in 2017. The last time the General Assembly voted to raise the state’s income tax before all that was in 1989.

    That’s thirty years ago, folks. In three decades, the income tax was raised once to 5 percent and it’s now at 4.95 percent.

    It’s rare because it’s so darned difficult to do. Those who think it’s so easy must’ve missed that excruciating two-year fight over tax rates which ended with a bunch of House Republicans quitting. I mean, it was in all the papers.===


  32. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 1:57 pm:

    “it’s the total tax burden that matters”

    It matters in the exact opposite way of the anti-tax people. As a percentage of income, the wealthiest pay the lowest SALT in Illinois, and the poorest the highest.


  33. - Da Big Bad Wolf - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 2:00 pm:

    ==This will be easy to debunk. All we have to do is look at our neighboring states that have a graduated income tax. They all have lower unemployment rates than we do.==

    Also I find interesting is that more states with no income tax have a higher debt to income ratio than Illinois (debt to GDP ratio today is 14.33) than have a lower debt to GDP. According to the debt clock today, debt to GDP ratio is higher in WA, (14.91) AK (16.36) NV(17.42)and TX (16.71)and lower in WY (4.6) FL (9.3) and SD(12.37). What’s more, states with flat taxes are evenly divided with four higher debt to GDP and four with lower debt to GDP. States with graduated income tax skew having a lower debt to GDP.

    So with states with no income tax skewed higher, flat income tax neutral, and states with graduated income tax skewed lower. I would conclude the way to lower debt to GDP skews to having a graduated income tax.


  34. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 2:00 pm:

    ===… historically low statewide taxation.===

    Which is why I see the argument of the 97% seeing no income tax increase *is* a huge selling point to pass the progressive income tax.

    It keeps the “low” statewide tax low… for 97%


  35. - SSL - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 2:28 pm:

    Yeah, it isn’t only the number of times a particular tax is raised, it’s the percentage the taxes are raised. Not too hard to figure it out. Like when state income taxes are raised 60%, or gasoline taxes raised 100%, or tolls raised 100%.

    Make a decent argument.


  36. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 2:37 pm:

    - SSL -

    === it isn’t only the number of times a particular tax is raised, it’s the percentage the taxes are raised. Not too hard to figure it out. Like when state income taxes are raised 60%…===

    On income tax?

    Rich Miller…

    === That’s thirty years ago, folks. In three decades, the income tax was raised once to 5 percent and it’s now at 4.95 percent.===

    To other taxes, elections have consequences for legislators, and yet, Pritzker *ran* on the specific progressive income tax… and won… by 16 points.


  37. - Dybalat - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 2:38 pm:

    Grandson of Man, you seem to neglect to mention that our neighbors also have a lower overall tax burden. Institute a large property tax reduction and freeze and you may have a point.


  38. - Dybalat - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 2:41 pm:

    Look at the shrinking labor pool here. Illinoiss is losing people, which is a big part of the lower unemployment rate.


  39. - Dybalaton - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 2:46 pm:

    Interesting numbers in Kentucky. A growing labor force and a job growth rate nearly double that of Illinois.


  40. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 2:50 pm:

    - Dybalaton -

    Moving to Kentucky are ya?

    New Governor, a Democrat. Hope that doesn’t shake ya.


  41. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 2:57 pm:

    “you seem to neglect to mention that our neighbors also have a lower overall tax burden”

    Those states have lower incomes than Illinois, much lower in Indiana, Missouri and Kentucky. Can’t get something for nothing. Pay lower taxes but make less money, much less in many cases.


  42. - A guy - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 3:00 pm:

    ==Again, what governor and what GA is going to “continually” raise the tax…==

    Uh, this one. They’ve only been afraid to raise one tax…that could change.

    There was no fear raising any of the others, you know, the big lifts of heroes?


  43. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 3:05 pm:

    === They’ve only been afraid to raise one tax.===

    Narrator: the voters will decide. The governor wasn’t one of the 71 or 36

    Do you *even know* how this is all working, LOL. Apparently not.

    === There was no fear raising any of the others, you know, the big lifts of heroes?===

    Raunerites lost. The chambers are 74 and 40.

    Numbers increased *with* the promise of spending and supporting the progressive tax

    So… there’s that.


  44. - Lucky Pierre - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 3:24 pm:

    Voters will decide

    So will Business decide where to Invest in capital and Human Resources


  45. - A guy - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 3:27 pm:

    ==Numbers increased *with* the promise of spending and supporting the progressive tax==

    Yep. Our Sorry State. And it doesn’t even count the most egregious financial mismanagement solutions over the next few years.
    Check out what’s happening in CT, NJ, CA. They’ve gone down this road.
    Happy Thanksgiving. I’ve got a lot of stuff to get done in the 50 mph wind outside.


  46. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 3:30 pm:

    === And it doesn’t even count the most egregious financial mismanagement solutions===

    Should we hold a state hostage for two years again, no budget, hurting social services and higher ed? Those types of solutions?

    You cheered those.


  47. - Dybalaton - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 3:44 pm:

    I’m a Democrat. We have considered Kentucky. Not ready to move yet.


  48. - Dybalaton - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 3:46 pm:

    Crazy that a backwater like Kentucky has a growing population and nearly double the job growth of Illinois is it not?


  49. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 27, 19 @ 3:49 pm:

    === Kentucky has a growing population and nearly double the job growth of Illinois is it not?===

    Not really, when Frankfort or Louisville leads North American cities for multiple years in foreign investment like Chicago, I’ll worry.

    Chicago, it appears is the Midwest Capitol for its economy, otherwise Illinois would be… Kentucky.

    :)


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