Adventures in polling
Tuesday, Mar 10, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Victory Research (Rod McCulloch) poll of 1,000 likely voters in the Democratic primary for Illinois Supreme Court. Sun-Times…
Statistically tied for first place were Appellate Court Justice Sheldon “Shelly” Harris, with 15.2%, lawyer Daniel Epstein — whose campaign commissioned the poll —with 12.9% and Appellate Court Justice Jesse Reyes with 12.1%.
Harris and Epstein are white. If he is elected, Reyes would the first Hispanic justice on the state’s top court.
Appellate Court Justice Margaret Stanton McBride, who is also white, came next with 11.2%, followed by state Supreme Court Justice P. Scott Neville Jr., an African American jurist who was appointed to Freeman’s seat, with 9.5%. Both McBride and Neville were also within the margin of error for first place.
Just a few percentage points behind were the other two African American candidates —Appellate Court Justices Nathaniel Howse Jr. and Cynthia Cobbs, with 8.1% and 6.1%, respectively.
MoE of +/- 3.1 percent. No disclosure in the story if this was a robocall to landlines or if it included mobile phones. 25 percent were undecided.
* This was a poll I tweeted out Sunday and posted on the blog Monday morning. Politico…
Two polls conducted this past weekend show Illinois Democratic voters are all-in for Joe Biden and that if “undecided isn’t an option” for voters in the Cook County State’s Attorney race, they’d stick with incumbent Kim Foxx, who still falls short of a majority. […]
Ogden & Fry surveyed 466 voters for the state’s attorney poll, which has a margin of error of plus of 4.63 percent.
Primary candidates with multiple opponents don’t need a majority to win. Also, as with the other poll, there is no disclosure about whether this was conducted on ancient and increasingly rare landlines or whether it included mobile phone responses.
- Ron Burgundy - Tuesday, Mar 10, 20 @ 10:34 am:
Hard to glean much from the Supreme Court numbers given how close they are, but that it has the two candidates with the worst bar ratings 1 and 2 is a bit disconcerting. Look at the bar ratings people, they do the work so you don’t have to. One of those two is unqualified by any measure.
- Anonish - Tuesday, Mar 10, 20 @ 10:40 am:
Nice to see that Rod is still getting work
- Chicago Cynic - Tuesday, Mar 10, 20 @ 10:44 am:
Why do you republish anything from this well-known faux-pollster? How many times do we need to see one of his exposed as a sham. Wasn’t he the one who had the governor’s race tied or close to it?
- City Zen - Tuesday, Mar 10, 20 @ 10:52 am:
==Look at the bar ratings people==
Agreed. Remove anyone deemed “not qualified” from contention. Then cross-reference against Cook County Democratic Party endorsements. Remove those as well.
- Ron Burgundy - Tuesday, Mar 10, 20 @ 11:06 am:
Yes the bar ratings are not perfect, but they at least talk to the candidates and lawyers/judges who have interacted with them to find out if they are competent and what kind of people they are. Also in Cook County races there are like 13 associations evaluating so voters can either go by the consensus or pick particular associations they like and trust. Just for Pete’s sake do go in blindly and vote based on names.
- Da Big Bad Wolf - Tuesday, Mar 10, 20 @ 11:30 am:
The Illinois ACLU has a questionnaire for States Attorney’s candidates to help make a decision. https://www.aclu-il.org/es/node/8803
- Fav human - Tuesday, Mar 10, 20 @ 11:34 am:
I have been getting a lot of political polls to my mobile. Both phone calls and texts.
About half of the polls are listed as “scam likely”. I’m not sure how the algorithm knows that their polling methodology is bogus 😆😆😆
- Dybalaton - Tuesday, Mar 10, 20 @ 11:40 am:
Epstein is completely unqualified. And he’s a Bernie supporter so even worse.
- AlfondoGonz - Tuesday, Mar 10, 20 @ 11:54 am:
Shelly Harris is a blowhard who has failed up through shameless self-promotion. I’d encourage people here who don;t know him well to vote for any other candidate.
- Steve Rogers - Tuesday, Mar 10, 20 @ 12:02 pm:
The Illinois State Bar Association and the Chicago Bar Association have great resources to help voters. I just wish more people used them.
https://www.isba.org/sites/default/files/judicialevaluations/2020primary/ISBA%202020%20Cook%20Primary%20Election%20Ratings.pdf
https://www.chicagobar.org/chicagobar/CBA/Programs/Judicial_Evaluation/Judicial_Voters_Guide/CBA/JEC/Judicial_Voters_Guide.aspx?hkey=14f031e8-b78f-46d1-a35f-6dee88079f63
- Anon Litigator - Tuesday, Mar 10, 20 @ 12:16 pm:
Reyes was deemed not qualified by the Chicago Bar Association to hold the Appellate Court seat to begin with back when he ran from that and came from mortgage foreclosure court in Cook County. How in God’s name he can now serve on the Supreme Court is a mystery.
- JoanP - Tuesday, Mar 10, 20 @ 12:31 pm:
I generally start by looking at the Chicago Bar Association and ISBA voter guides because they give the reasons for their ratings.
I don’t always agree with their reasoning, but at least I know what it is.
- Da Big Bad Wolf - Tuesday, Mar 10, 20 @ 12:34 pm:
=== Epstein is completely unqualified.===
There is a interview with Epstein in the Sun Times that is interesting. I like his stance on junk science in the courtroom.
I’m not sure how you decided he was “completely unqualified” since he worked as a lawyer and worked for cases at the Supreme Court. He’s only been a lawyer for five years and that might be a deal breaker for some of the bar associations.
- Lawman - Tuesday, Mar 10, 20 @ 2:51 pm:
@Anon Litigator, the Chicago Bar Association found three of the candidates Highly Qualified for the Supreme Court Job, one of those individuals was Justice Reyes
- Ron Burgundy - Tuesday, Mar 10, 20 @ 2:58 pm:
-Reyes was deemed not qualified by the Chicago Bar Association to hold the Appellate Court seat to begin with-
I suppose it could happen that a person deemed not qualified as a candidate gets on the bench and turns out to do a good job.
- Ok Boomer - Tuesday, Mar 10, 20 @ 3:31 pm:
Da Big Bad Wolf experience matters especially with regard to a S Ct seat. Epstein has been an attorney for four years and has only worked at Jenner and Block. He is terribly inexperienced and would not be in this race but for his family money and having Ameya Pewar as his brother-in-law.
- Casey - Tuesday, Mar 10, 20 @ 4:11 pm:
The black community is shooting itself in the foot, ala Tim Evans/Gene Sawyer from 1989 in this race….3 blacks on the ballot dooms their chance to retain Justice Charles Freeman seat.
- Da Big Bad Wolf - Tuesday, Mar 10, 20 @ 4:48 pm:
=== Da Big Bad Wolf experience matters especially with regard to a S Ct seat. Epstein has been an attorney for four years and has only worked at Jenner and Block. He is terribly inexperienced===
I’m sure this is why the bar associations have him listed as not recommended. It doesn’t make him “completely disqualified.”
- Dybalaton - Tuesday, Mar 10, 20 @ 5:24 pm:
Epstein is rates unqualified by almost all the bar associations.
- Amalia - Tuesday, Mar 10, 20 @ 8:23 pm:
Ratings by the letters mean something. But also read what the bar associations say if they give written comments, especially the words of the CCLawyers. it’s not just about tenure, it’s about what you have done with the years, and what you are prepared to do in the future.
- Candii - Wednesday, Mar 11, 20 @ 5:15 pm:
Daniel Epstein received “Not Recommended” from ALL 13 bar associations; Shelly Harris received 5 “Not Recommended” & 1 “Unqualified” & Margaret McBride received 1 “Not Recommended.”
https://s3.amazonaws.com/elections.suntimes.com/voting-guide/2020/img/2020_judges_recommendations_updated.pdf