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A little bit of hope, but stay frosty

Wednesday, Apr 8, 2020

* From today’s press conference, here’s IDPH Director Dr. Ngozi Ezike

Using the information that we have, we can still track our rate of rise. And so with the decrease in the rate of rise, with it not looking exponential, with it looking more linear, that just means that there’s a slower rate of increase. So we are confident with our team of epidemiologists that that is what we’re seeing, thus far.

So we’re with guarded optimism, we’re hoping that we’re getting close to either the peak or the plateau. It’s not clear yet how long that would be. Again, it’s really hard to start making specific days like we’re X number of days from the peak. But we think we’re heading in that direction. And we will continue to follow the data and give you more as we get it.

A plateau would be horrible, so stay inside. And please wear a mask and gloves if you absolutely must venture forth. Keep washing your hands. Don’t let a little good news allow you to start coasting. The coming days are absolutely critical to starve this virus of its food (people).

* In case you need a quick tutorial

One of the most important distinctions between linear and exponential functions is how (and how quickly) they increase or decrease. Linear functions increase proportionally; an increase in x has a corresponding additive increase in y. Exponential functions, however, increase exponentially; that is, an increase in x has a corresponding multiplicative increase in y.

* Gov. Pritzker today

If you talk to Dr Ezike, you’ll see that early on in the development of COVID-19 in Illinois, there was a coefficient that was like three and a half people were getting infected for every one person that you could detect. And it’s much lower now, and again, it’s not an exact science that number, but we are seeing a change in those numbers and it has directly to do with the orders that we put in place people staying at home. People washing their hands people doing the right thing people wearing masks. These all have an effect on the infection rate in the state

Again, let’s kill this thing dead. #AllInIllinois

- Posted by Rich Miller        

13 Comments
  1. - NotMe - Wednesday, Apr 8, 20 @ 4:22 pm:

    I feel badly for folks in states that don’t have someone like her on this.


  2. - Ok - Wednesday, Apr 8, 20 @ 4:30 pm:

    -Exponential functions, however, increase exponentially-

    Ah, that explains it


  3. - revvedup - Wednesday, Apr 8, 20 @ 4:41 pm:

    As a good friend of mine says about killing things dead, let’s “kill this thing millions of times.” Keep up the fight everybody, everywhere, everytime, and let SCIENCE, not wishful thinking, decide when we get back to normal.


  4. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Apr 8, 20 @ 4:44 pm:

    Science is the tool to kill this thing dead;

    Stay at home. Don’t expose others. Save lives.

    I’m doing what I’m told, so others can do what can be done to help fight this virus.


  5. - Flapdoodle - Wednesday, Apr 8, 20 @ 4:51 pm:

    Re killing this thing dead, there’s an Army saying that applies: “When in doubt, empty the mag.” So yeah, let’s all empty the mag and get this done.


  6. - ChicagoVinny - Wednesday, Apr 8, 20 @ 5:04 pm:

    The graph on wikipedia visualizes exponential vs linear

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth


  7. - Hot Taeks - Wednesday, Apr 8, 20 @ 5:21 pm:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg
    Here’s a great video from March 8th explaining Exponential Growth. They were a day off the worldwide one million reported cases mark which passed a few days ago. A model is only as good as the data that’s available for it to input.


  8. - Soccermom - Wednesday, Apr 8, 20 @ 5:58 pm:

    This is what exponential growth looks like.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4wM5KvUGEc


  9. - Anon - Wednesday, Apr 8, 20 @ 6:02 pm:

    Whatever progress there is in decreasing numbers is threatened by the outbreaks at the Cook County Jail, Statevile, and very probably Menard. Pontiac, and the other State prisons and congregate care facilities to follow. Those facilities will forestall curve flattening. We are just at the start of this…


  10. - Huh? - Wednesday, Apr 8, 20 @ 7:09 pm:

    Flapdoodle - I think this disease is going to take more than 1 magazine.

    To the post: Am doing what She Who Must Be Obeyed (my beloved wife) tells me to do. So when go out, gloves and mask, wipe things down upon return home. Washing hands. Confining yowling cats.


  11. - SSL - Wednesday, Apr 8, 20 @ 8:16 pm:

    This is a positive and should only bolster our resolve to continue to stay inside. The weather doesn’t look great for the northern part of the state for the next week so it shouldn’t be as tempting to venture out. Read, write, watch movies, blog to your hearts content. No fat ladies are singing and it is far from over.


  12. - Flapdoodle - Wednesday, Apr 8, 20 @ 8:25 pm:

    Huh? — Then so be it, but we all gotta bring everything we’ve got at this monster however deep the pile of brass needs to be


  13. - Huh? - Wednesday, Apr 8, 20 @ 9:42 pm:

    Flapdoodle- it is the unexpected second and third waves that scare me. We may not have enough ammo in the arsenal. Nor may we be able to procure the ammo, ie vaccinations in time.


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