Another day, another projection, but this one has a catch
Wednesday, Apr 8, 2020
* The University of Washington IHME’s COVID-19 model has been updated again. Now, this is just one forecaster and one projection, but we’ve been watching it fluctuate and the news seems encouraging for Illinois.
Right up front I need to point out two errors in the IHME database. The IHME has yesterday’s Illinois death toll as 1. It was actually an all-time high of 73. IMHE also has cumulative deaths yesterday at 308. It was actually 380. Somebody entered the wrong death report yesterday and that may have thrown off the entire projection.
So, take these numbers with a grain of salt until they fix those errors.
The latest projection, dated today, has the projected death toll at 1,588, with a range between 1,011 to 2,790.
Illinois’ peak resources day has been moved up to April 11, five days earlier than its last projection.
Illinois is now projected to experience a peak of 91 COVID-19 deaths on April 12th. That’s way down from the last projected peak of 208 deaths per day by the same date. But, again, those input errors may have thrown everything off.
IMHE is now projecting no statewide shortage of ICU beds. It had originally projected a shortage of 204.
Keep in mind, though, that the statewide numbers will not reflect the reality at individual hospitals. Some may be overwhelmed while others have more than enough.