New, more contagious strain identified
Tuesday, May 5, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* LA Times…
Scientists have identified a new strain of the coronavirus that has become dominant worldwide and appears to be more contagious than the versions that spread in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new study led by scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory.
The new strain appeared in February in Europe, migrated quickly to the East Coast of the United States and has been the dominant strain across the world since mid-March, the scientists wrote.
In addition to spreading faster, it may make people vulnerable to a second infection after a first bout with the disease, the report warned.
The 33-page report was posted Thursday on BioRxiv, a website that researchers use to share their work before it is peer reviewed, an effort to speed up collaborations with scientists working on COVID-19 vaccines or treatments. That research has been largely based on the genetic sequence of earlier strains and might not be effective against the new one.
Go read the whole thing. The study is here.
- Frumpy white guy - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 9:48 am:
The new 2020 freedom riders ain’t worried one bit. They all have their 12 gauge shotguns filled with buckshot and they will shoot the new COVID-19 strain right out of the air.
- West Sider - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 9:51 am:
I had read of suspicions a month ago, but the conformation is terrifying.
- JB13 - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 9:51 am:
How is it new, if it’s been here since mid-March? Isn’t it what we’re dealing with now?
- Wensicia - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 9:58 am:
Viruses mutate, which is why we get new flu shots every year. I fear by the time they come up with a viable vaccine, it will be near to useless.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 9:58 am:
=== Another reason for the control addicted leaders to contain the plebes.===
Huh?
Oh.
Ah.
You mean science.
- Bruce (no not him) - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:00 am:
I sure hope the murder hornets don’t carry the new strain. /S
- Hard D - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:01 am:
Well with so many people going nuts on the beaches in California, Texas and Florida we will soon find out if this other strain is as dangerous and deadly as Covid 19.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:07 am:
==for the control addicted leaders==
You think those leaders like this? You think they get their kicks out of all of this stuff they are doing? Please. Grow up.
- Nagidam - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:07 am:
This isn’t necessarily new just confirmed. Researchers understood there was a version of the virus out of Europe that was prevalent on the east coast. They were trying to figure out why the death toll in New York was worse than on the West Coast. For those science deniers, data like this is precisely why you have a stay at home order. Flatten he curve to allow the medical community and the research community to catch up.
- Dotnonymous - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:09 am:
Mutation is the word that virologists and epidemiologists have dreamed about since the beginning of this continuing crisis…in their nightmares.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:09 am:
==it may make people vulnerable to a second infection after a first bout with the disease==
So, not only are you not immune but you are more vulnerable to get it again. Nice.
- Chicago Cynic - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:10 am:
Enough. 2020. No Mas.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:10 am:
==Disease and death are part of the human condition==
That is such an absolutely bogus argument. We’re not talking about normal risks. We’re talking right now about heightened risks. What people like you are advocating is akin to going out and playing in the middle of the street.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:13 am:
==authoritarian leaders ==
And that is one of the more ignorant arguments being made, by the way.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:13 am:
===I thought restrictions were implemented to assist healthcare facilities? McCormick Place is being deactivated.===
This is a prime example of the foolishly ignorant.
The goal is and was to make sure McCormick Place was never fully utilized… by socially distancing, staying at home…
Because it was successful as of now, to reduce the bed count there… that doesn’t indicate by any measure this virus is on a downturn.
How do I know?
How many US States, territories, possessions, DC… how many have had 14 days of continual decline.
The answer is zero.
Don’t be a Covidiot. Reaching a goal or want with McCormick Place isn’t signaling any end is near.
See me when ANY state reaches 14 days of continued decline.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:17 am:
Just FYI, a commenter has been put into permanent moderation for posting under two screen names on the same post. Don’t be a sock puppeteer, people. Don’t try to make it look like your opinion is shared by more than just yourself.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:19 am:
“No amount control by authoritarian leaders will stop death and disease.”
Would it help if we call people fetuses and embryos? Then Republicans and right wingers would put government in people’s bodies to fight the virus.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:20 am:
Understand everyone scared. Maybe the old people should stay home. We need to get people back to work so they paid taxes which pays for pensions and the safety net
- thunderspirit - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:21 am:
Important to note that the original paper is in prepub status, meaning it’s not yet been peer-reviewed.
Some dissent about the original article can be found here: https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1256422856436613126
None of which means the findings aren’t true, or that they’re not important. Just that there are still many unknowns.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:21 am:
==Maybe the old people should stay home.==
I wasn’t aware that the virus limited itself to infecting and killing only old people. That should be an incredible relief to everyone.
- TinyDancer(FKA) - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:22 am:
Oy.
- RetiredStateEmployee - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:26 am:
No Masks In IN - So how did we conquer smallpox, polio, cholera, etc. If it wasn’t science, what was it?
- Permanent Moderation - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:27 am:
Rich, I only posted once today. The post I responded to was not mine. I always enter an e-mail address. If my e-mail address was entered in the first post, it was entered by someone other than me. Scott Tapley (574-303-5592 if you want to discuss)
- Anonymous - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:29 am:
You are right young people do catch the virus. But they’re not dying from it. How do you address the money for pensions in the safety-net then?
- Permanent Moderation - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:29 am:
Guess I wasn’t the one you put under “permanent moderation”… I thought I was since my earlier post never appeared and the one I responded to evaporated.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:30 am:
==You are right young people do catch the virus. But they’re not dying from it.==
Umm, yeah, they have. Are you the Governor of Florida by chance? Because he said the same dumb thing.
- Larry Saunders - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:32 am:
My comments seldom appear even when made only once. What is the secret?
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:33 am:
Please don’t respond to “Anonymous”
- Anonymous - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:35 am:
Very few young people are dying. Half the people in New York we’re from long-term care facilities. People need to work to pay taxes so are pensions could be paid for
- illinifan - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:44 am:
To be hopeful there is another report showing the virus is losing some of its genomic sequence which can indicate it is dying out https://nypost.com/2020/05/05/new-mutation-indicates-that-coronavirus-might-be-weakening-study/.
- dbk - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 10:53 am:
Read a similar article over the past couple of days. It’s not good news, but researchers knew there was a distinct chance the virus would be mutating, it’s what viruses do once they find a hospitable host population. The rate of mutation - as these processes go, of course - does not appear to be extremely rapid, which might be good news for vaccine development.
We’ll have to see what this portends for further research into treatments/vaccines. For one thing, researchers will now start looking at how stable the so-called European strain is; the Asian strain may eventually simply fade away.
It originally made most sense to go after the “spikes” which latched onto receptors, but in the end they may have to go after the RNA’s “brittle” points - sequences where no mutations appear to be permitted, which would therefore be theoretically susceptible to “breakage.”
Hadn’t seen it stated quite so explicitly that those who’ve had the European strain could be susceptible to re-contagion - if proven, that would not be good news for those working on antibody tests.
Important point: in addition to flattening the curve, stay-at-home/ social distancing has given researchers a chance to study the virus - which appears to have some unusual features - to get a better grasp of its biochemistry.
- Give us Barabbas - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 11:00 am:
And people are in an hurry to ditch all precautions…
“This parachute worked great for the first two thousand feet… I think I’ll unbuckle it nowwwwwwwwww…….”
- Amalia - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 11:07 am:
this is a new virus. everyone dealing with it is learning new things , some very scary like this piece states, and new techniques as we go along. we depend on all people involved in the fight against the virus…including people who venture out of their dwelling units….to help. we don’t have the answers. be a person who helps in the fight.
- Rachel - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 11:12 am:
I’m not sure how one defines “young” but according to the IDPH website, about 20% of the deaths are occurring in people under 60 and another 20% from those in their 60s. And there is evidence that deaths among younger people are higher than counted because of stroke deaths attributable to the virus that were not identified as such.
- A Jack - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 11:27 am:
This mutation is a big argument against herd immunity. If you just open things up in the hopes that the greater population develops herd immunity, there will be cases where the virus mutates and may go back to reinfect the same people. Reinfected people might already be weakened from the first go around and won’t be able to fight off the second round.
The only way to combat a mutating virus is keep infection rates low so it eliminates the possibility of the virus mutating. Then when a vaccine is developed, you have to vaccinate everyone in a geographical area in a short amount of time. The anti-vaxxers have to be forced into quarantine to prevent them from spreading a mutated virus.
I recommend that the GA pass a law not allowing any exemptions for vaccinations and which will allow for the arrest and forced quarantine of any anti-vaxxers.
- Huh? - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 11:36 am:
“…the mutation makes the virus so different from earlier strains that people who have immunity to them would not be immune to the new version. …”
Reading this now makes sense of earlier reports of patients contracting the disease again.
Read an article that a vaccine may never be found, similar to what happened with HIV. If the virus mutates rapidly, it isn’t possible for a vaccine to provide protection.
- Glengarry - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 11:44 am:
This is a nightmare scenario for all.
- Boone's is Back - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 11:49 am:
Murder hornets and now a morphed strain a COVID. 2020 you’re the gift that keeps on giving.
- Tommydanger - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 11:53 am:
>>Don’t try to make it look like your opinion is shared by more than just yourself.
- Tommydanger - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 11:56 am:
>Don’t try to make it look like your opinion is shared by more than just yourself.
- Generic Drone - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 12:07 pm:
I just hope we can get a grasp on this sooner rather than later.
- muon - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 12:33 pm:
Generic Drone - as Huh? notes, the nature of a vaccine, if one exists, may not be the type of complete protection one hopes. Also, I read the entire paper, and given the wide spread of the infectious strain and the ability they note for the virus to mutate through recombination, there’s a good chance we won’t get a full grasp on this virus in a way we would have though two months ago. We may be faced with the unpleasant prospect of how to live with this virus from now on.
- Flapdoodle - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 12:34 pm:
–This parachute worked great for the first two thousand feet–
Continuing the analogy, once you exit the plane, gravity ensures you reach the ground one way or another. A chute is certainly be handy if you can get one, but staying with the plane a while longer means everyone lands safely, not just a few.
- MrX - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 12:38 pm:
FWIW, I’ve seen quite a few virologists online slamming this article and saying it’s way to early to make the kinds of statements made in the article.
- Peer Reviewed - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 1:58 pm:
It is worth linking to this tweet thread as a counterpoint to the article and the tone. It’s a pretty interesting comparison to Ebola and a suggestion that both the study and the LAT piece are overly sensationalized based on the data.
https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1257716419166236672
- Huh? - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 2:18 pm:
This virus has been in the global population for five or six months. Numerous groups are studying the virus and how to combat it. Because there is so little known about the disease, I am sure that the disagreement between individual virologists and epidemiologists will continue.
With respect to Dr. Rasmussen, thanks but no thanks. She expressed an opinion without out anything to support her position.
Whereas, the authors of the study made a statement finding “… Wherever G614 entered a population, a rapid rise in its frequency followed, and in many cases G614 became the dominant local form in a matter of only a few weeks. …” that tends to support their position that a mutated covid19 is more contagious.
- DuPage Moderate - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 2:31 pm:
If you read the response to this article by any of the leading experts on twitter or otherwise, you’ll see that this headline is grossly misleading and the underlying concept that this virus is mutated to become more deadly is 100% inaccurate. All viruses have small mutations and genetic changes - this is no different and there is zero reliable data that any mutations of this virus have made it more or less deadly.
- Peer Reviewed - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 2:59 pm:
@Huh? Let’s see: A is observed, then B happened. A caused B. No flaws there.
I’m just as concerned about this new strain, but I’m not an epidemiologist, a virologist, or even a political scientist. I’m just a blog commentor (commentist?) asking the blog admin to share another interesting perspective on the matter with his readers.
- Mr. Fox - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 4:15 pm:
But Laura Ingraham said last night that any mutation of COVID-19 would be a weaker one eventually fading out. What gives?
- muon - Tuesday, May 5, 20 @ 4:29 pm:
Peer Reviewed - I understand where you are coming from, but I think there is an important distinction between what the LAT article says and what the scientific paper says. I am a scientist, and though I’m not a virologist, I have a number of peer-reviewed statistical analyses to my credit, so I think I can make some claims about those parts of the paper. The salient part of their discussion (they don’t call it a conclusion)of the statistical dominance of the newer strain in areas with both present is
“We do not know what is driving this selective sweep, nor for that matter if it is indeed due the modified Spike and not one of the other two accompanying mutations that share the GISAID “G-clade” haplotype. The Spike D614G change, however, is consistent with several hypotheses regarding a fitness advantage that can be explored experimentally.”
They don’t draw a causal conclusion, but just the opposite. They do want to flag this correlation, and bring it to the attention of other researchers who might be relying on only one strain for vaccine studies.