With the announcement by Rep. Bob Morgan, D-Deerfield, earlier this month that he will not vote to re-elect Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan in January, the opposition numbered eight House Democrats, with at least a few more privately leaning their way.
They’ll need 13 or 14 Democrats, depending on final general election results, to deprive Madigan of the speaker’s gavel. So, they may need some help to get over the hump.
And there’s one person outside the House who may have enough votes to tip the balance either way.
And, no, it’s likely not Gov. J.B. Pritzker. Not yet, anyway
Pritzker controls no votes in the House. He can’t just push a button and make something happen in that chamber.
Perhaps if he had followed through on his 2018 promises to supplant the moribund state party with a true statewide political organization for all Democrats at all levels, he might have some buttons to push. But he didn’t, and the pandemic intervened and here we are.
Whatever the case, a governor directly confronting the House Speaker has never worked here. Others have tried. All have failed. A governor’s opposition would, as it has in the past, give Madigan something external and concrete to push back against in order to distract from his internal problems.
And if Pritzker’s effort to dislodge Madigan failed, so would the remainder of his legislative agenda. Not to mention that Pritzker certainly hurt himself when he not so subtly threw resources Sen. Kimberly Lightford’s way during her unsuccessful run for Senate President almost a year ago. Once bitten, twice shy.
There is definite pressure on Pritzker to act, though. As the saying goes, “governors own,” so he’ll wear the jacket in 2022 if Madigan is still standing and remains as spectacularly unpopular as he is today.
Maybe Pritzker could quietly do something at the very end to make it happen if the opposition is still slightly short, but don’t expect anything before that unless something major happens with the federal investigation into the House Speaker’s operation. But if Pritzker swings and misses, Madigan will still be around, Pritzker won’t get anything accomplished and the voters will not be pleased.
The dude spent a zillion dollars to get elected governor only to find himself in a dozen trick bags. Welcome to Illinois!
The one person outside the House who could make a real and immediate difference is U.S. Rep. Chuy Garcia. As I’ve told you before, Garcia, the Chicago Teachers Union and Madigan came to an understanding not long after Garcia, with the CTU’s backing, lost the city mayor’s race in 2015. Madigan’s 13th Ward carried Mayor Rahm Emanuel to victory, but that took an extraordinary amount of work in Madigan’s Latino-dominated area. Better to just cut a deal.
Since then, one after another of Congressman Garcia’s close allies have been elected or appointed to the General Assembly.
There are probably no better examples of this than in Madigan’s own neighborhood. Garcia ally Celina Villanueva was appointed to the House in the summer of 2018 when Madigan loyalist Rep. Silvana Tabares was appointed to the Chicago City Council in the neighboring 23rd Ward. Rep. Villanueva then ran unopposed in a special election to replace resigned Sen. Martin Sandoval (Madigan’s senator) and Garcia’s congressional aide Edgar Gonzalez was appointed to Villanueva’s House seat. In between, Madigan successfully supported another Garcia staffer for a Cook County Board slot over Sandoval’s daughter.
Congressman Garcia has significant influence over at least three Chicago Democratic House members (Gonzalez, Aaron Ortiz and Delia Ramirez). But if he makes a strong statement either way on Madigan, several other progressives in the chamber could very well follow his lead.
Garcia, by the way, is also a member of Madigan’s state party central committee. A few committee members have spoken out against Chairman Madigan, but Garcia has a stronger political organization and a larger public platform. He could make a real difference there, too,
But a deal is a deal and, in the long term, Garcia has the better end of it. Madigan gets peace and Garcia gets more of his people into influential positions every time there’s a path (or close to it, like when Madigan tried unsuccessfully to block Eva-Dina Delgado’s appointment to the House this year after Garcia and the CTU supported someone else).
And that probably explains why Congressman Garcia isn’t returning my phone calls and texts these days to ask what he’s planning to do about all of this.
- Bothanspy - Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 9:02 am:
A learning question. Don’t Dems hold 74-ish seats? Wouldn’t they need more than 14 defections to elect someone other than Madigan as speaker?
I would genuinely be surprised if Chuy moved against Madigan.
- Regular democrat - Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 9:04 am:
A deal is a deal. Key words but more telling is that Garcia is getting the better end of it. My guess is that he keeps his powder dry and let it play out. The legal system may solve it and Garcia is then king of the SW side.
- Marquee - Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 9:07 am:
Chuy also wants a seat at the table for the remap, to guarantee a fair number of Latino seats in Springfield, to make sure the subcircuit remap is fair to Latinos, and to get a second Latino-majority Congressional District
- Ducky LaMoore - Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 9:08 am:
This is all very interesting. The thing I can’t figure out is, who is the consensus candidate that Republicans and defector Democrats are going to vote for?
- Rich Miller - Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 9:17 am:
===Don’t Dems hold 74-ish seats?===
Not in January.
- Anyone Remember - Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 9:21 am:
“… who is the consensus candidate that Republicans and defector Democrats are going to vote for?”
Perhaps Willie Brown might be available to advise? In 1980 he cobbled together disaffected Democrats and the entire GOP to take out Howard Berman. In 1994 he picked off a few of the majority GOP to remain Speaker whilst being from the minority party.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 9:31 am:
=== … who is the consensus candidate that Republicans and defector Democrats are going to vote for?===
Ok, keep in mind;
With still a super-majority on the Dem side, what you’re asking is ~13 or so Dems to go against the idea that Dems, a Supermajority in every way outside the Speaker choice, are willing to compromise on not only this vote, but what it may cost them.
Again, this is a glaring example where Demmer failed to see what his role is/was pre-election, and it did nothing to help the lame duck Wehrli.
It’d be better during a family squabble to handle it as a “family”, and “to the post”, Rich has done an incredible job framing what the heck is going on in the family and Garcia, so there *may be* an idea to cobble a “negative 60”, but the quotes of Bourne and others, and the inept way of Demmer, why work any deal with the super-minority who will want something, when the honest play to change is the 70+ deny Madigan 60… then figure out… as a family… who first can lead… and second mend fences with Labor.
Last point, and Labor…
You wanna be the Dems to side with “Raunerites” to oust Madigan… and *then* go back to Labor after *that* move, and possibly owing Raunerites?
My gosh… yikes.
Great read, Rich. Love the close too.
- Marquee - Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 9:34 am:
Ultimately, I think this whole matter comes down to whether the Governor wants to interfere. He’s the only person who can tell Dem state reps that he will personally fund their campaigns Rauner-style if unions cut off money because they vote against the Speaker
- Bigtwich - Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 9:35 am:
“… who is the consensus candidate that Republicans and defector Democrats are going to vote for?”
You could ask Michael Madigan how to do it. He has been elected Speaker by acclamation on nine occasions.
- Frank talks - Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 9:46 am:
Chuy is in a great position. He’s got Madigan on his side which comes with full union support, he’s got all the progressive groups on his side, he’ll have influence over the map, he’s built a solid bench and troops. Why tip anything over right now? Yes the rich white liberals want Madigan gone but what have they ever done for Garcia except fund Rahm Emmanuel and not vote for him for Mayor.
Nice article Rich
- Donnie Elgin - Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 9:47 am:
So Garcia holds the keys and does nothing - good to know.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 9:55 am:
===who is the consensus candidate that Republicans and defector Democrats are going to vote for?===
That’s a faulty look at the election. Read what I wrote. They just gotta keep him from getting to 60 on the first ballot.
- Roman - Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 9:56 am:
This is spot on. “The Chuy Three.” CTU’s influence is a key component and it extends to white progressive members of the Dem caucus. We all know Madigan mostly avoids getting involved in primaries unless an incumbent is being challenged, so the most committed progressives haven’t had to rely on Madigan and might not feel the sense of loyalty to the Speaker some suburban Dems members do who face contested general elections. But, CTU is all about Dem primaries. They could help keep a few white progressives on board with the speaker.
- Teve Demotte - Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 9:57 am:
The governor and his staff, as Rich points out, badly mishandled the politics around the Senate President selection process by openly backing Lightford. In my opinion, the Progressive Income Tax failure had as much to do with the Governor’s unpopularity in certain areas as it does Madigan’s unpopularity. Also, quietly, there is some frustration or discontent between the Deputy Governors and some in the General Assembly because of personality conflicts. Backing Madigan in a proverbial corner politically is a tricky thing. The Illinois Federation of Labor came out in strong support for Madigan to remain Speaker. I think the governor and his staff are in a difficult spot here.
- Mary from 14th ward - Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 9:57 am:
Oswego Willy gives great advice.He’s an asset to every Democratic ward organization. The dig at Rauner is great.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 10:02 am:
=== gives great advice.He’s an asset to every Democratic ward organization.===
(Sigh)
Give it a rest. I’m neither a Dem or a Raunerite.
It’s easier to see Dem strategy to the politics, as they (Dems) are a relevant group to both politics and governing.
The Raunerites are wholly inept and not relevant to governing, and the politics to Raunerites is old, angry, racially monolithic… and regional. Not much to analyze there.
- Mary from 14th ward - Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 10:07 am:
-OW-
Our ward organization likes your constant digs at Rauner and Republicans. You’re always welcome with us.We know a good Democratic when we see one.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 10:14 am:
- Mary from 14th ward -
Far smarter, craftier writers, who can actually *do* drive-bys with comedy and tact have tried to frame me as such. Failed too.
You’re over your head. I feel for you that you think you can try this.
Move on, add to the discussion, you’re looking silly focusing on me.
To the post,
=== The dude spent a zillion dollars to get elected governor only to find himself in a dozen trick bags. Welcome to Illinois===
Backing Lightford was an unforced error, the Fair Tax Flop will haunt, (unless maneuvered with deft political skill to the wonky governing) and now with the hemorrhaging of the fiscal, picking sides, no matter how it plays out might not be at all great when the vote for Speaker comes.
Maybe let the chamber figure out the 58 that can stop it, *then* pop up after as governor to smooth out the edges… but after.
- Mary from 14th ward - Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 10:59 am:
OW
I’m active in the 14th Ward organization. I’ve used your very talking points the last 6 months on this website with constituents. Again a big thank you.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 11:06 am:
- Mary from 14th ward -
With true respect. No snark.
You may be the only one listening to me, and if I were you, I’d just claim what you think might work as your own.
I’m not pointing out anything that’s not easily seen.
Taking me seriously is a dangerous thing to own. I don’t recommend it.
To the post,
This is tasty:
=== But a deal is a deal and, in the long term, Garcia has the better end of it.===
Madigan is a man of his word, Garcia so far is showing he is too, by silence, and keeping the better end of a deal with Madigan. Fundamentals.
- Burris’s Ghost - Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 12:37 pm:
Can they flip Chuy by promising him the Duckworth Senate seat or have they already promised it to Margaret Croke?