Yes, you can sometimes beat somebody with nobody
Wednesday, Dec 16, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* As I’ve been saying for a while now, this is only Part 1. And Part 1 is a siege. Part 2, the election, comes after the siege ends with one or the other side collapsing. And that siege has only barely begun…
Still, their opposition might not be enough to stop Madigan from securing another term, said John Jackson, a visiting professor at the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute.
“There’s not a major opponent announced for the speakership,” Jackson said. “… There’s an old saying in politics ‘you can’t beat somebody with nobody.’ Michael Madigan is definitely a somebody, and while there are now 19 announced opponents to his being reelected, that obviously presents him with a problem, but on the other hand the opposition has to coalesce around a significant and viable candidate.”
And so far, no major, viable Democratic candidate has announced, Jackson said.
While Madigan isn’t as powerful as he’s ever been, “He’s certainly a formidable force and not yet likely to be mortally wounded and now most likely to be the speaker again, barring any longterm stalemate,” Jackson said.
Watching this and commenting on it will require patience.
* Ouch…
“Unless he’s having conversations with Republican members, he doesn’t have the votes from our caucus,” Rep. Jonathan Carroll, D-Buffalo Grove, said.
Carroll is one of the 19 House Democrats opposed to Madigan’s reelection.
“Right now, the 19 of us have committed to not voting for him,” Carroll said. “We’re not changing our votes, so it’d have to come from somewhere.”
* Meanwhile…
* And Politico got it right today…
Rep. Maurice West was elected secretary of the Black Caucus, also unanimously.
The race for the four available spots in House leadership went to Rep. Emanuel “Chris” Welch, Rep. Mary Flowers, Rep. Marcus Evans, and Rep. Jehan Gordon-Booth. Welch received 17 votes, or 22 percent of the vote, to Flowers’ 14 votes, or 18 percent.
Those are important names to watch as the House speaker position remains contested.
Subscribers know more.
- Ducky LaMoore - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 9:00 am:
This fight for Speaker is going to get very ugly.
- Anon E Moose - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 9:02 am:
Rep. Welch is all for getting people jobs through connections. Like his wife at his current law firm (and former one).
- JS Mill - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 9:02 am:
Mary Flowers is now a member of house leadership? This is a self inflicted wound for the ILDP. wow, she is brutal. Like Darren Bailey brutal, just on the opposite side of the spectrum.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 9:07 am:
This “misunderstanding” of what’s at play is actually the “misinformation” those trying to save Madigan are using to seem thoughtful.
The 19 only agree on ONE thing, as their letter clearly indicates, with everyone “signing” below;
They are “no” on Madigan.
They don’t need a candidate, a rallying person, an agenda, core beliefs… even matching t-shirts…
They only need to be united, “no” on Madigan.
Once that is realized by the deniers, then the new speaker candidates can cobble the 60 necessary.
Oh.
Ya gotta show me your 6, 8… maybe 9 that are going to be needed to peel off that 19 that will now vote for Madigan.
Name names, show me the wavering.
Trying to frame this as “well, then who” is a ploy, a misdirection, a “misunderstanding”
- Nick - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 9:08 am:
The government continues to tread lightly but circle the edges on showing his displeasure with Mike. Smartly, I think.
- Just Me 2 - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 9:08 am:
Mike Madigan has spent decades protecting the institution of the General Assembly. It’s ironic that his current actions are undoing a lifetime’s work.
- Ferris Wheeler - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 9:17 am:
Rep. Carroll is confused. His fight is not with Madigan. His fight is with the Black Caucus and the 50ish House members on the other side of the divide.
The way a siege works is that you have to mentally wear down the people inside the castle, starve them of resources, or promise them a better life.
Do the 19 agree with Pritzker that public employees should take furlough days to close the budget gap? Or do they agree with Madigan that House Democrats should back a tax increase?
I don’t think any labor union has been more loyal to the Black Caucus than AFSCME, and Pritzker has now drawn a real policy line in the sand for the 19 to declare in what direction they would lead. Is it toward a better life?
- Precinct Captain - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 9:28 am:
It’s more likely that Jonathan Carroll is the one having conversations with Republicans. Leading up to the Fair Tax debate in 2019 he was promoting IPI propaganda all over his social media and parroting false “jobs tax” talking points.
- Joe Bidenopolous - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 9:28 am:
=I don’t think any labor union has been more loyal to the Black Caucus than AFSCME=
Umm, SEIU and CTU would like to have a word…
- SpiDem - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 9:28 am:
The reason Madigan is in such trouble is because those 19 members simply aren’t going to budge.
If you look back to the epic 1975 Speaker showdown, the initial front runner, Clyde Choate couldn’t put the votes together even though he had the city’s support, in large part because the Governor was whipping votes against him, and because there was a reform caucus agitating for House rule changes that saw Choate as part of the problem.
When the city and Governor finally agreed on Redmond as a compromise, there was still a block of 17 that would not budge from Choate.
After the city switched, it took another 54 ballots to get Redmond over the top, and it required 7 GOP members to cross over.
I would suggest that the odds of a single GOP member crossing over to vote for Madigan are south of zero.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 9:29 am:
===The way a siege works is that you have to mentally wear down the people inside the castle, starve them of resources, or promise them a better life.===
Or convince them beyond all doubt that there is no possible escape. And that’s what the object will be here. So, the rest of your comment means nothing.
- Ducky LaMoore - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 9:30 am:
Ferris, what you seem to be telling me is the next Speaker will be an AFSCME-friendly member of the Black Caucus. The 19 defectors just have to hold out for anyone not named Madigan. They don’t have to besiege anyone.
- Red dog - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 9:34 am:
…and Madigan’s traditional methods of persuasion are hindered by not knowing who is recording phone calls, etc.
- fs - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 9:46 am:
Pritzker’s line of “he should answer questions or resign” is being shown for what it is: a cowardly refusal to say what should be said. That Madigan should resign.
Everyone knows that Madigan will never “answer questions”, and that has now been formally confirmed at the committee level. If the Governor truly believes what he says (which I’m starting to doubt), he needs to say it, and the press needs to push him to say it.
- walker - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 9:50 am:
“”Mike Madigan has spent decades protecting the institution of the General Assembly.”"
That’s true. But what’s under attack here are the operations of the House Democratic Caucus and DPI — not to be confused with the GA itself.
Any set of strong leaders can protect the GA as an institution.
- low level - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 9:58 am:
You can’t bear someone w a nobody in a 1 on 1, simple plurality win. In the Speaker format, you need 60 votes, even
if there is no announced challenger. Get to 60 - you’re
in.
No one gets 60? Go another round of voting. Keep going into someone reaches 60.
- Chad - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 10:03 am:
In this case the “siege” is being easily conducted by the 19, who can easily “mentally wear down the people inside the castle, [and] starve them of resources” just by remaining silent and staying firm. Arguments that they need to do or say anything else defy logic.
- Roman - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 10:07 am:
While there’s little doubt the Black Caucus (minus 1) will stay united behind Madigan until the bitter end, I’m not sure we should assume they will stay united and vote as a block on a successor should Madigan give up. That’s not the way things went down earlier this year in the senate, where the Black Caucus split, even though the leader of the caucus was running for senate president.
- Chicagonk - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 10:08 am:
@JustMe2 - It’s clear that Madigan now only cares about preservation. If he cared about the party or the GA, he would have stepped down by now.
- Frank talks - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 10:09 am:
The Black Caucus marker of 4 leadership spots from Madigan was smart, now whoever does want Speaker knows that is a necessity to gain Black Caucus support.
The 19 haven’t asked for anything, while they may get what they want of No Madigan, they may also lose some things in the meantime, leadership, committee chairs etc.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 10:12 am:
=== The 19 haven’t asked for anything, while they may get what they want of No Madigan, they may also lose some things in the meantime, leadership, committee chairs etc.===
What does this even mean?
They are not a “collective”, they’ve said do.
Once there’s choices, then the 19 individuals will do what they deem is needed… for them.
They are only bargaining (it’s not even a bargaining, they’re a “no” to Madigan) to ensure MJM can’t get 60. They’ve done all they can, with ONE letter, to secure that.
- Candy Dogood - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 10:19 am:
After they cast a few dozen ballots and Madigan still isn’t speaker, some group or another might throw their votes behind someone that isn’t Madigan and then after a couple rounds of voting, that person will be Speaker.
I anticipate that it will either be the representative that tells the funniest joke, or the representative that was the butt of the funniest joke told during the meeting because as we now say, this is the way.
It might not take several dozen ballots, but that’s what history has shown for this kind of situation. It’s also the 21st century, so some of the 19th century tactics (or late 20th century Illinois political tactics) aren’t a good idea to employee.
Shouldn’t take more than 20 or 30 hours behind closed doors, and at the end of it Madigan go off to sit in front of a nice villa in Sicily.
- levivotedforjudy - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 10:28 am:
I wish there was a way to watch the House Dem deliberations on this. For an Illinois political geek, this would be like watching Citizen Kane or Star Wars for the first time. Grab the popcorn, soda and Raisinettes, this is going to be a show.
- low level - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 10:37 am:
I do think it will be decided In the Democratic caucus and not publically on the floor.
What I wouldn’t give to be able to attend HDem Caucus meetings now
- Nagidam - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 10:51 am:
Black Caucus vs the Noble 19. Who blinks first? This is great theater until a viable candidate for Speaker emerges not named Madigan, Kifowit or Durkin. Madigan will play the long game with the hopes the HDBC holds firm. January 13th is less than a month away and there has not been a HDEM Caucus. The long game.
- Ok - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 11:06 am:
With no position in leadership anymore, would not be surprised to see Rep. Davis jump out to try to get his hat back in the lead for speaker.
But, Speaker Welch seems more and more inevitable.
- Southern Skeptic - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 11:07 am:
The Speaker and his allies are smokin’ the hopium with their “stalemate and then back to the future” strategy. The politics would be absolutely brutal. I see a 1% chance and I think I’m being optimistic.
- Impervious - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 11:10 am:
The notion of Mary Flowers being Speaker is mind numbing. Cannot imagine a scenario that brings that to fruition.
Chris Welch or Jehan Gordon-Booth. Jehan could be a unifying candidate that is tenable to both the Progressives and the Black Caucus.
- Ferris Wheeler - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 11:15 am:
The siege of Leningrad lasted over 2 years. There was no hope of escape, it was a choice between loyalty or surrender, and hundreds of thousands chose death over surrender.
Leningrad was the longest siege in history, and Russia paid a very heavy price but was victorious.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 11:35 am:
===but was victorious===
Yep. They don’t always work. Not saying this one is 100 percent, either. I’m just saying the opposition doesn’t need a candidate or even unified positions on issues to prevail. Something you seem to fail to grasp.
- Roman - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 11:40 am:
A lot of overreaction here to Mary Flowers being elected to one of the leadership spots. She’s by far the most senior member of the caucus, and like her or not, she garners a lot of respect among her colleagues because of that. That’s the primary reason she was voted into leadership, not to line her up to succeed Madigan.
- Flying Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 11:51 am:
How about we stop comparing the huge loss of life to due barbaric warfare with the political infighting over who the speaker of a state legislature will be?
One ain’t the other, in any shape, form, or fashion.
- Powdered Whig - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 11:51 am:
=== A lot of overreaction here to Mary Flowers being elected to one of the leadership spots. ===
I agree. Lots of disrespectful comments being made about Mary Flowers.
- BC - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 11:56 am:
Leningrad? C’mon, let’s keep our siege analogies Illinois centric. What about Vicksburg? A whole bunch of Illinois regiments fought there. Led by Galena’s own U.S. Grant.
- Touré's Latte - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 11:57 am:
Pritzker needs a tough budget.
19 D’s swear they are NO to Madigan.
Madigan can deliver a tough budget.
Madigan can horse trades elements of a tough budget for the needed GOP votes.
The GOP can get some wins to show their voters, maybe get a district or two remapped for them.
Some D NO votes get a pass from Madigan because 4D CHESS REASONS.
Some D NO votes get remapped into oblivion as abject examples to future others.
Everyone who plays ball with Madigan gets a little.
Everyone who does not play ball with Madigan does not get a little.
Worst case, Harris is elevated and Madigan continues running the show.
- SpiDem - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 11:59 am:
@low level
I hope you are right that they resolve it in caucus. But that would require Madigan to step aside for a successor, which he has shown no sign of doing. At this point, everything points to the strategy of the Speaker as being prepared to burn the joint down to save his grip on the gavel.
That said, I believe a key part of Madigan’s strategy is to freeze out potential compromise candidates until the voting for Speaker opens. Since at least 1975, all nominations for Speaker have been submitted and seconded prior to the opening of the first ballot. It likely becomes a parliamentary ruling from the chair whether or not nominations can be re-opened once the balloting begins.
With Jesse White holding the gavel, and taking directions from the Speakers parliamentarian, I suspect if they go into the first ballot with Madigan, Kifowit, and Durkin as the only candidates; the chair will do everything in its power to block nominations after ballots have been cast. In that case, its probably advantage Madigan. If I were the 19, I’d be doing my level best to make sure a few compromise candidates are nominated before the first ballot.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 12:03 pm:
===make sure a few compromise candidates are nominated===
Meh.
People can vote “Present.”
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 12:04 pm:
=== I suspect if they go into the first ballot with Madigan, Kifowit, and Durkin as the only candidates===
Lots is suspecting there, who knows who might decide, or not decide to be on that first ballot.
I know I don’t know.
- Chad - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 12:27 pm:
If some of the 19 were to “nominate” anyone prior to Madigan backing out, they will see their unity diminish or end. It would have the same destructive effect as issuing a platform or policy positions. The nominee will be picked-apart and that process would drive a wedge into the 19. They need to vote no for months, if necessary. Madigan has to be pressed to give up by those who will eventually want to end the siege. Might be good to simply not show as a group a few times.
- SpiDem - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 12:29 pm:
Rich,
My point is that the House Rules are silent on whether nominations can be introduced after the opening of balloting. In that case, it becomes a parliamentary ruling from the chair on the question of whether, once closed, nominations can be reopened. And precedent going back at least 5 decades suggests the chair would suggest they can’t. And with Jesse in the chair, and the Speaker’s parliamentarian at his side, its unlikely they would rule to re-open.
The only way to get around this is a change in the House Rules, but even then, that change would likely have to occur prior to nominations, as in 1975, Matejevich’s rule change moving the vote threshold for Speaker to a constitutional majority was done as the very first order of business. Even then, the chair would have to rule the motion in order, and the 19 would have to join with the GOP to make it happen.
Remember that in 1975 all the candidates were nominated before balloting opened. They did not re-open nominations to find a compromise candidate — they had to select Redmond from the field of existing candidates.
- Responsa - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 12:52 pm:
==I hope you are right that they resolve it in caucus. ==
Righto. Wouldn’t want any sunlight on it so the regular peeps can see the sausage being made inside their government.
- Levois J - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 12:54 pm:
I suppose Madigan’s re-election as speaker isn’t a lock, yet.
- Telly - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 12:57 pm:
== a key part of Madigan’s strategy is to freeze out potential compromise candidates until the voting for Speaker opens. ==
Agreed, but once the prospect of voting on the floor becomes a reality, Madigan’s support will be subjected to an immediate stress test. His loyalists (at least those outside the BC) will be on the record and exposed to public scrutiny for the first time. That will be unpleasant for many, particularly if he’s short of 60. It would be like voting for a tax increase that doesn’t pass…you catch all the heat with none of the benefit. And you sure as heck wouldn’t want to take that vote again and again as part of a strategy to wear down the holdouts.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 1:00 pm:
===I hope you are right that they resolve it in caucus. ===
Odds are.
Why give the supermajority any sway. The caucus finding 60 and their speaker is step 38, we’re still watching step 1
- S Side - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 1:08 pm:
Rep. Carroll seems to represent the new progressive AOC-type caucus. Gone are the backslappin’ ‘How ya doin’?’ days of old. Replaced by a sort of a whinier ‘entitlement mentality’ presence.
- Too cute by half - Wednesday, Dec 16, 20 @ 2:53 pm:
@S Side
You think Carroll is like AOC? Really? Have you paid attention to anything else he has done before coming out against Madigan? My eyes rolled so hard at your comment, I’m sending you the bill for the ligament reattachment surgery.
Going to go out on a limb and guess you’re one of the guys who back slapped the right coty pols and are collecting a nice state pension for the rest of your life.