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Hinz digs into Census numbers

Wednesday, Jan 6, 2021

* From the break…


* Greg Hinz

Part of the reason is the decline in international immigration during the Trump presidency, something that hurt Illinois more than its neighbors. Orphe Divounguy, chief economist at the Illinois Policy Institute, sets the loss at perhaps 20,000 people a year. Demographer Rob Paral pegs it higher, perhaps 40,000 a year. Either way, over 10 years, it’s added up.

Paral makes another point that has gotten lost in much of the recent debate: While metropolitan Chicago isn’t gaining much, it’s no worse than about flat in the decade. Where the population loss is focused is downstate, where, according to data he’s crunched, at least 90 percent of counties have lost people. If those areas arguably lack the talent draws that metropolitan Chicago has, they may be more susceptible to economic pressures, such as the impact of the new federal cap on deducting state and local income taxes.

Another source who’s tracked the data, Metropolitan Planning Council Research Director Dan Cooper, says all of the factors listed above have an impact, but the most striking to him is the demographic impact of inequality—the cost in lost jobs and investment due to Chicago’s national reputation as a place with high crime, lagging schools and tax uncertainty. […]

He also points to data suggesting that, while tech and other high-education fields still are attracting educated people to the state, those fields attract relatively few Blacks and Latinos, at least so far.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

10 Comments
  1. - Anyone Remember - Wednesday, Jan 6, 21 @ 10:06 am:

    As an immigrant, I’ve always have said that outside Metro Chicagoland (& possibly Champaign), the leading economic export of every Illinois county is high school graduates.


  2. - @misterjayem - Wednesday, Jan 6, 21 @ 10:13 am:

    “those fields a̶t̶t̶r̶a̶c̶t̶ hire relatively few Blacks and Latinos, at least so far.”

    – MrJM


  3. - DrunkLibrarian - Wednesday, Jan 6, 21 @ 10:19 am:

    “As an immigrant, I’ve always have said that outside Metro Chicagoland (& possibly Champaign), the leading economic export of every Illinois county is high school graduates.”

    Anecdotally, I would say the big cities along the I-74 Corridor (Champaign-Urbana, but also Bloomington-Normal, Peoria, and Quad Cities) and *maybe* Metro-East are the only level/slightly growing areas outside of Chicagoland.

    Every place else in the state is basically in a fire sale for population whose top industries are crippling depression and white grievances.


  4. - Fav Human - Wednesday, Jan 6, 21 @ 10:23 am:

    decline in international immigration during the Trump presidency…… . Either way, over 10 years, it’s added up.

    I must have been seriously not paying attention. I though Trump was only president for four years.

    more susceptible to economic pressures, such as the impact of the new federal cap on deducting state and local income taxes.

    Downstate I don’t think many people are hit by the 10000 dollar cap. And that bill was actually progressive. The bottom 50% share of Fed tax payers paid 2.9 % after as opposed to 3.1% before.


  5. - Merica - Wednesday, Jan 6, 21 @ 12:08 pm:

    Look at what society’s leaders do. What do the children of the political leaders in Central and Southern Illinois do? What do the children of the wealthiest farming families do?

    Well, in many cases those children live in Chicago, NYC, San Fransisco, etc.. The parents have a house in Illinois, but their real house, the expensive house, the house they spend money on and enjoy being at is in Florida, on the gulf shores, or in South Carolina.

    There isn’t much to do in Central and Southern Illinois and the people that can, who have roots, choose to invest their time and money elsewhere.


  6. - Pot calling kettle - Wednesday, Jan 6, 21 @ 12:23 pm:

    Subtract the 17-18,000 COVID deaths and the loss is similar to the last two years.


  7. - Essential State Employee - Wednesday, Jan 6, 21 @ 1:08 pm:

    Looks more and more probable by the day that 2 congressional seats will be going bye-bye in 2 years.


  8. - Anyone Remember - Wednesday, Jan 6, 21 @ 2:40 pm:

    DrunkLibrarian -
    I-74 Corridor? Other than the Quad Cities, those are places with universities … .


  9. - Downstate Illinois - Wednesday, Jan 6, 21 @ 2:52 pm:

    If Chicago isn’t healthy the rest of the state doesn’t have a chance. It’s the economic driver of the state. I may live 300+ miles to the south, but it’s true. Small rural Illinois counties have been losing population for decades. Agriculture still employs thousands but with increases in productivity it needs fewer workers every year. Corruption at the top and poor leadership by our governors have left the state rudderless. Increasing regulations and taxes makes the state less competitive. Increasing crime, failing schools and more recently the limitation on basic civil rights and the gutting of public schools have robbed Illinoisans of any pride in the Land of Lincoln. Meanwhile Texas and Florida compete with our neighbors for our attention and eventual relocation.


  10. - Anyone Remember - Wednesday, Jan 6, 21 @ 6:02 pm:

    Downstate Illinois

    The lack of Trump-era immigration (legal and illegal) has depressed population levels in Chicago, and therefore, Illinois.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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