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Opposing mitigations is also bad statewide politics here
Tuesday, Feb 2, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller * Setup…
* Trump’s pollster looked at exit polls from five states that flipped to Biden (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) and the five most competitive states won by Trump in 2016 and 2020 (Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas). “Voters prioritized stopping the spread of coronavirus over reopening the economy in both groupings, larger in the states that flipped”…  * “Three quarters of voters favored mask mandates both in the Flipped and Held groups. Biden ran up the score with this large majority of voters, especially in the states that flipped”… 
* OK, now let’s look at some of the Illinois exit poll results compiled by the Tribune…  * Approve/disapprove on handling the pandemic..  Trump’s “strong disapprove” level was an astounding 57 percent. The Trib didn’t report on a mask question. There are two polls here. So, read the rest for the methodologies. * As an aside, the poll found that Biden lost whites nationally 46-52, but he won white Illinois voters 52-45. Biden also won non-college graduate men 51-44 in Illinois, while losing that demographic nationally 46-51. His margin here among women, Latinos and Black voters was larger than it was nationally. He also won urban and suburban areas by more than he won nationwide. Biden’s loss among small town/rural voters was actually 2 points larger here than nationally - the only tiny bright spot for Trump in Illinois.
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- Precinct Captain - Tuesday, Feb 2, 21 @ 9:25 am:
Who would have guessed that the Bailey-Rezin strategy on COVID is not only bad economics, health and science, but also bad politics?
- Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Tuesday, Feb 2, 21 @ 9:39 am:
Disease, war, social unrest, doesn’t matter.
People don’t feel safe, no economy.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 2, 21 @ 9:47 am:
The loud, vocal, minority to safety and to honesty of the dangers of the virus are no different than the Trumpkins who feel first they are part of a silent majority, then peter out to a “you are infringing on my rights” minority” bend.
The sheer ignorance (as defined by the word itself) by the angry minority running in parallel to the old, angry, white Trumpkins, they feel aggrieved more than feel anything towards understanding the dangers.
- Paddyrollingstone - Tuesday, Feb 2, 21 @ 9:52 am:
While I certainly respect the work that Tony Fabrizio did here, when I saw the header:
-hemorrhaging white support
-disapproval of coronavirus management
- a voter perception that he wasn’t “honest and trustworthy”
I was like “no kidding.”
- DuPage Saint - Tuesday, Feb 2, 21 @ 9:56 am:
Yes, let us be real, real proud true Republicans throw out them RINOS grab a Gadsden flag, toss out AK and grow our majority and turn this state bright red. That’s gonna work just fine.
- Blake - Tuesday, Feb 2, 21 @ 10:01 am:
There is a political scientist from St. Louis, using mostly Ohio, Pennsylvania & Ontario as proof, divides American into 6 types of communities. I feel like reporting results into those 6 groups would be helpful for these polling/election results crosstabs. Rich’s last paragraph left me feeling a bit uncertain whether by suburbs are they throwing in Chatham & Savoy with Belleville & Aurora? By urban, are they including Springfield & Champaign with Chicago?
The 6 types:
1. Big cities
2. Suburbs of big cities
3. Small/Mid-size cities (Springfield, Champaign, Quad Cities, Rockford)
4. Suburbs of small/mid-size cities (Chatham, Savoy, Silvis)
5. Urban clusters (Lincoln, Monticello, Aledo, Galesburg)
6. Rural areas
- JJJJJJJJJJ - Tuesday, Feb 2, 21 @ 10:08 am:
Ah well ya see the Illinois polls don’t take into account the hordes of 17 year olds who are anti Pritzker because he took away their high school sports. Many parents are saying they will doom Pritzker’s career when they turn 18!
- Frank talks - Tuesday, Feb 2, 21 @ 10:15 am:
So if Trump won rural and small towns in Illinois 2 points higher here than nationally they obviously feed off the message. So are there enough suburban republicans who can pull a moderate over the line in a GOP Gov primary to make it a real race? Or does the Eastern Bloc now represent the way of the illinois GOP going forward?
- Amalia - Tuesday, Feb 2, 21 @ 10:28 am:
turns out, most people are not fans of getting sick and dying.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Feb 2, 21 @ 10:33 am:
I get the loss on the Fair Tax and all, but potential Gov candidates for ‘22 should be looking at polls like this and swallowing hard.
- Excitable Boy - Tuesday, Feb 2, 21 @ 10:34 am:
I’ve tried explaining this to some of my Trump loving friends countless times. If he’d simply pushed for mask mandates he would have probably won, and saved thousands of lives.
- Give Me A Break - Tuesday, Feb 2, 21 @ 10:41 am:
Are those hordes of HS football players that are going to doom JB the same hordes who were going to pack up their family, sell their homes quit their jobs and move to states that were playing football in the Fall. There were thousands going to do that ya know. Just ask the Ken and Dereck Leonards of the world.
How did that work out?
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Feb 2, 21 @ 10:45 am:
=== Ah well ya see the Illinois polls don’t take into account the hordes of 17 year olds who are anti Pritzker because he took away their high school sports. Many parents are saying they will doom Pritzker’s career when they turn 18===
This is truly a pathetic thing.
It’s embarrassing to think it, let alone think 18 year olds… who play sports… are the difference.
Talk about self-righteous ignorance.
Tell that to the 400K plus and growing that died.
If your kid was good enough to play at the next level, they woulda found your kid.
SD308 had a whole signing day…
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Feb 2, 21 @ 11:14 am:
JB can point to last spring and summer, when the president yelled for states to “liberate” and governors of certain states reopened too soon, with subsequent massive spikes in daily COVID cases. Our governor helped save many lives and avoided much suffering and sorrow by holding to mitigation measures. BTW those early reopening states are models the right wing tries to push onto Illinois, lower income states with no adult-only Medicaid expansion in a pandemic. JB can campaign against the red state models all day long.
- Ummmm - Tuesday, Feb 2, 21 @ 1:05 pm:
I’ve been saying this to anyone that will listen. The idea that JB is underwater and easy to beat is just simply false. His approval has been good in every poll and as it turns out voters like living in a place where they feel safe. He’s led the state through this crisis and voters won’t soon forget this crisis in 2022. It’s going to be real easy to find soundbites of Republicans backing the open everything up side, considering that it started with the Eastern Bloc but made its way into “normal” GOP pretty quickly.
Losing the fair tax (that didn’t really have JB’s name attached to it) amid a recession should not give the GOP hope. They’re not winning the suburbs with what they have become and that’s going to be their challenge.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 2, 21 @ 1:43 pm:
===Losing the fair tax (that didn’t really have JB’s name attached to it) amid a recession should not give the GOP hope===
Yes, it should. He took a 60 percent issue and made it a 47 percent issue. Not an easy feat.
- Anonanonsir - Tuesday, Feb 2, 21 @ 3:39 pm:
It looks like the Trib stuff is based on pre-election polling, which was somewhat off.
“AP’s VoteCast is a survey of the American electorate conducted in all 50 states by NORC at the University of Chicago. The survey of an estimated 140,000 registered voters is conducted Oct. 26 to Nov. 3, concluding as polls close on Election Day.”
Wikipedia gives different national results; for example, it indicates that Trump won whites by about 17 points.
I’d guess that the general conclusions about Illinois are mostly valid.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Feb 2, 21 @ 3:40 pm:
===is based on pre-election polling, which was somewhat off===
You can’t do exit polling anymore because of mail voting.
- Sir Reel - Tuesday, Feb 2, 21 @ 4:30 pm:
Something’s wrong with me. I’m white, old, often angry and live in a rural area, but can’t for the life of me figure out why anyone supports or believes Donald Trump.
- Blitz - Wednesday, Feb 3, 21 @ 8:06 am:
Interesting to note in rural Coles County Trump/Pence increased their share of the vote by 3% in 2020 compared to 2016. Baffling I agree Sir Reel. On the positive side the Trump/Pence ticket did not receive 50% of the vote in Charleston, but obviously swept the rest of the county.