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*** UPDATED x1 *** Three analysts, three conclusions about the new legislative maps

Monday, Jun 14, 2021

* Daily Kos staff writer…


* Sheldon H. Jacobson, Ph.D., professor of computer science at the University of Illinois, writing in the News-Gazette

However, when evaluating the likely outcome in the next election, the new maps position Democrats to win two additional Senate districts and four additional House districts, everything else being equal. This is something that the committee did not want you, the voters, to know.

Although Republicans fight against gerrymandering in Illinois, in neighboring states like Wisconsin or Indiana, Republicans hold the redistricting power and draw maps to serve their interests. However, with a Democratic governor holding veto power in Wisconsin, that division of power will create more balance in their final maps.

These remapping efforts also serve as a precursor to when Illinois’ congressional district map is redrawn later in the year. There is nothing to prevent the same partisan process being followed and the same egregious results achieved.

Gerrymandering is not a Democrat or Republican problem, it is an ethical problem, and any political body or people that willfully gerrymanders or is complicit with such activities is exhibiting questionable ethics. Are these the people you want running the state?

Now that these maps are law, the stage is set for Illinois to have another 10 years of dysfunctional government, a structurally imbalanced tax system and other artifacts of gerrymandering, effectively excluding voters from the democratic process. It is no surprise that people are fleeing Illinois en masse.

Numbers are numbers, but tossing in a screed on the “Illinois Exodus” is kind of a tell. Jacobson told me he used 2016 election results as a basis for these claims.

* Frank Calabrese was my consultant when the new maps were released. He posted a long tweet thread on the Senate, but here’s his conclusion…


Calabrese told me today that the key to rating these races is to plot the addresses of the incumbents. “I don’t think these other people did that. It takes a long time.” He did say, however, that he thought the House Democrats have a shot at as many as 5 more seats. But, as with everything, it will take some effort, the right candidates and could depend on what happens in DC.

*** UPDATE *** Good point…


- Posted by Rich Miller        

35 Comments
  1. - One hand //ing - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 10:30 am:

    === It is no surprise that people are fleeing Illinois en masse.===

    If you’re gonna present yourself as an authority on redistricting you could at least avoid lying about the census numbers.

    And people are leaving Illinois because of gerrymandering to go to states the author admits are also gerrymandering?

    Sheldon, get your money back on that PhD buddy.


  2. - fs - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 10:32 am:

    The analysis resulting in a possible R pickup in the 48th is interesting. That was clearly drawn for a Dems to retain. However, the incumbent also hasn’t been through the ringer of an election yet, so who knows.


  3. - JB13 - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 10:33 am:

    “Gerrymandering is not to credit for the Democratic supermajority in Springfield. We’re not like Republicans.”

    Then can we create an independent commission to create the maps?

    “No.”


  4. - anon2 - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 10:39 am:

    Daily Kos says the Democrats don’t gain. If Frank is right, then the GOP gains in the Senate under this map. Not exactly an unfair result. I’m confident the Democrats won’t gain seats under maps gerrymandered in states where the GOP is in control.


  5. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 10:41 am:

    === However, with a Democratic governor holding veto power in Wisconsin, that division of power will create more balance in their final maps.===

    So… “we miss Bruce Rauner”?

    Raunerites tried the “who do you want signing a map” thingy… Rauner lost by 15+ points.

    So… that point is a moot one.


  6. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 10:50 am:

    === “Gerrymandering is not to credit for the Democratic supermajority in Springfield. We’re not like Republicans.”

    Then can we create an independent commission to create the maps?===

    So Raunerites couldn’t come up with maps after a “no”?

    Huh.


  7. - Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 10:56 am:

    Sheldon Jacobson, putting the “piled higher and deeper” in Ph.D.


  8. - @misterjayem - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 10:58 am:

    “It is no surprise that people are fleeing Illinois en masse.”

    🤡

    – MrJM


  9. - DuPage Saint - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 11:09 am:

    I am old enough to remember Republicans gerrymandering especially at county board level. If you want to draw map win the elections. I personally enjoy the creativity of a well drawn gerrymandered map of either party.


  10. - Edyrdologist - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 11:13 am:

    That Daily Kos analyst has talked up Multi-Member Districts (something Illinois used to have until relatively recently prior to the Cutback Amendment), proportional representation (similar to the Irish electoral system), and Ranked-Choice Voting (which is increasingly being adopted, most notably in the NYC mayoral election) as a way to counteract these gerrymandering games without imposing a geography penalty/bonus on either party. It never made sense to me that in a district that is 51/49, 60/40, or even 80/20 that the 49, 40 and 20% essentially have zero say in their representation after election day. Not an equal say, obviously, but a say.


  11. - Arsenal - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 11:16 am:

    ==The analysis resulting in a possible R pickup in the 48th is interesting. That was clearly drawn for a Dems to retain. However, the incumbent also hasn’t been through the ringer of an election yet, so who knows. ==

    There’s just not a ton you can do in that part of the state. It’s certainly better for Turner than Manar’s version of the district woulda been.


  12. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 11:16 am:

    ===essentially have zero say in their representation after election day.===

    Depends on the legislator.

    Those who represent their districts well, they find common ground with those of all parties for a common good.

    If you’re saying electing rank partisans is happening, well, that gets into a whole can of worms with “primaries and purity”


  13. - Huh? - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 11:48 am:

    N # of opinions of IL maps = 5N + 1


  14. - Edyrdologist - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 11:50 am:

    ===Depends on the legislator===

    Fair enough, and in an ideal world I agree that it would be preferable if we had great legislators in every single-member district who could bridge the views of all their constituents, even the ones who didn’t vote for them.

    But I just think with increasing political polarization (which is simply not going to go away in a rapidly diversifying country) and the transformation of the two parties into more ideologically homogenous, European-style parties, it’ll become much harder for even the best legislator to find common ground between people who believe the 2020 election was stolen, COVID is a hoax and that immigrants are destroying the country and people who want single-payer healthcare, a more humane immigration system, and much greater access to the ballot box. Not exactly sure it’s even possible to do that.


  15. - low level - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 11:58 am:

    == Now that these maps are law, the stage is set for Illinois to have another 10 years of dysfunctional government, ==

    Dude, you’re a professor of computer science. Computer. Science. You have no background or expertise to make such a claim.


  16. - Mike K - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 12:29 pm:

    Don’t argue with the experts: https://cs.illinois.edu/news/donald-trump-has-0-chance-winning-election-according-u-i-computer-scientists


  17. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 12:31 pm:

    === Don’t argue with the experts===

    Trump didn’t win the beauty contest election, Trump won the electoral votes to be elected.


  18. - Ducky LaMoore - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 12:32 pm:

    “the stage is set for Illinois to have another 10 years of dysfunctional government”

    The Ryan years, the Blago years, the Quinn years, the Rauner years. The map has nothing to do governmental disfunction. Illinoisans elect their governor. And for the first time in since the 90s, the voters chose correctly. We currently have, at minimum, a replacement level governor. Which is a dramatic improvement. Things are getting better. Sorry, there is no magic wand to erase all disfunction. And if Sheldon had his way, things would be worse not better.


  19. - Louis G Atsaves - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 12:45 pm:

    So even the Daily Kos calls the district lines as drawn as being ugly. And the professor being derided here feels that this type of severe gerrymandering will continue the dysfunctional government of Illinois for the next 10 years? He also calls this behavior willfully unethical?

    No wonder Governor Pritzker signed those remap bills into law without a public ceremony, behind closed doors, with no smiling and proud legislators standing behind him.


  20. - Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 12:49 pm:

    ===as being ugly===

    You want pretty lines, move to lilly white Iowa.


  21. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 1:00 pm:

    What’s always amusing is the ignoring of the Voting Rights Act to have “pretty maps” or maps that are, how is it being spun, ah yes, “compact”

    Right now, the GOP in Illinois is 0-8 in statewide offices. Not one office.

    Unless Illinois captures part of Wisconsin, Missouri, Kentucky, or Indiana… or… the GOP changes from being Raunerite/Trumpkins to actually attract more voters especially in the collar counties…

    But, the victimhood to perfect lines…


  22. - DTAG - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 1:02 pm:

    I know Frank, he probably has the least amount of credentials of the three and will probably be the most correct.


  23. - Louis G Atsaves - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 1:17 pm:

    So there lies the rub of it all. No one ever asked for pretty lines, only fair lines. Why are dissenters always invited to leave Illinois if they don’t like the hardball politics others enjoy?

    Still waiting for that public signing ceremony. Won’t be holding my breath while waiting.


  24. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 1:26 pm:

    === Still waiting for that public signing ceremony.===

    It’s already signed, no?

    Is this the pounding the table part of Lawering?

    === Why are dissenters always invited to leave Illinois if they don’t like the hardball politics others enjoy?===

    I say “win elections”

    If you can’t win the statewide elections, what exactly do ya think is appealing to… anyone?


  25. - Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 1:32 pm:

    ===No one ever asked for pretty lines===

    You specifically whined about ugly lines.


  26. - lake county democrat - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 1:44 pm:

    So the Illinois Democrats message to reformers is “you can either hand power to those Trumpists or live with our gerrymandering.” Guess Rauner wasn’t the only one taking hostages.


  27. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 1:48 pm:

    === Guess Rauner wasn’t the only one taking hostages.===

    Huh? What does this even mean?

    The maps are signed. There will be lawsuits.

    Rauner used Dunkin, Drury, and Franks to purposely hurt Illinois for something in return he couldn’t get.

    Good try. No.

    Do I think these maps will hold up in any court, I have no idea, but I know the votes in the GA, the signature, and no one is seemingly going to state court to discuss process to the Illinois constitution.


  28. - Chicagonk - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 2:01 pm:

    Since any argument about the maps and redistricting is 100% political, my political view is that drawing legislators out of districts as a way to get even and control how members vote is much worse than gerrymandering to add more seats.


  29. - Rich Miller - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 2:03 pm:

    ===and control how members vote===

    Where did this happen?


  30. - walker - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 2:09 pm:

    “”It is no surprise that people are fleeing Illinois en masse.””

    To use Wisconsin as an example of a fair map process is another disqualifier for the Prof. Clueless.


  31. - Frank talks - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 2:20 pm:

    Lots of conjecture and FB style ranting here.
    Map is signed and now going to court.
    Any lawsuits are just that. Because someone files a lawsuit doesn’t mean it has merit. Anyone can file a lawsuit.


  32. - lake county democrat - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 2:27 pm:

    And I have no idea what is meant by the discussion of lawsuits - I don’t think the problem most critics have against the maps is that they are illegal, at least under current Supreme Court jurisprudence which seems to say nearly any partisan gerrymandering is permitted. If you’re against it on principle and the response of the Democrats is “live with it or go elect that other party into power,” I think you have to ignore the real world context of what today’s Republican party not to reach the same conclusion. It doesn’t have to be the same thing as Rauner’s budget fiasco to still be hardball.

    But as to the state court, I’ll say again, when the Dem majority on the Illinois Supreme Court twice refused to rule on the question of whether *any* referendum is state-constitutional, they gave themselves away every bit as much as the GOP SCOTUS majority did in the Bush v. Gore decision.


  33. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 2:30 pm:

    === I don’t think the problem most critics have against the maps is that they are illegal, at least under current Supreme Court jurisprudence===

    If they’re not illegal, than it’s just opinionated likes.

    The rest is noise to those likes… or partisan whining.


  34. - Rabid - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 2:38 pm:

    You don’t know what you don’t know, data for the maps came from the census report


  35. - low level - Monday, Jun 14, 21 @ 3:41 pm:

    == Why are dissenters always invited to leave Illinois if they don’t like the hardball politics others enjoy?==

    Maybe because they are always threatening to leave? Just a guess.


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