Cutting through some of the bail reform hype
Thursday, Jul 8, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Rex Huppke at the Tribune…
A recent study by researchers at Loyola University Chicago found that bail reform in Cook County “had no effect on new criminal activity or crime,” a finding in line with studies of crime data from other large cities.
The percentage of Cook County defendants released prior to bail reform who were charged with a new violent criminal act: 3%.
The percentage of defendants released after bail reform who were charged with a new violent criminal act: 3%. […]
Defendants’ probability of new criminal activity prior to bail reform: 17.5%.
Defendants’ probability of new criminal activity after bail reform: 17.1%.
The study is here.
* Meanwhile, here’s the Sun-Times…
Community activists on Wednesday called on Gov. J.B. Pritzker to declare a state of emergency decree for gun violence after Chicago recorded its deadliest and most violent weekend yet this year. […]
Green called gun violence a “public health crisis” and said “it’s clear” city leadership can’t get a handle on the situation. That’s why, he said, the group is asking Pritzker to step in. […]
In a statement Wednesday evening, Jordan Abudayyeh, a spokeswoman for Pritzker’s office, did not mention Pritzker issuing a state of emergency decree, though she said the Democratic governor is committed to a “comprehensive approach to gun violence,” which includes investing in programs that produce pathways to better education, careers and safe communities.
“The Governor believes we have to treat the epidemic of gun violence as a public health crisis, which is why since day one his administration has significantly increased funding for violence interruption and prevention programs,” said Abudayyeh, noting that Pritzker increased funding to these programs by $50 million in his first year in office.
Abudayyeh also said this year’s budget allocates $128 million for violence prevention programs.
In comparison, CPD’s annual budget is $1.7 billion.
* Related…
* President Biden came to Chicago area to talk ‘human infrastructure,’ but shooting of 3 officers brings gun violence to forefront
* Person of Interest Questioned in Shooting That Wounded CPD Officer, ATF Agents: Source
* Man whose case helped end death penalty in Illinois dies
- Feed up - Thursday, Jul 8, 21 @ 10:09 am:
Regardless of what side you on, the current system which has been in place for years ISP not working…if anything its worse. If you don’t change anything then don’t expect any change. Lets roll.
- Candy Dogood - Thursday, Jul 8, 21 @ 10:10 am:
=== Rex Huppke at the Tribune===
So in about two weeks we’ll see an Op-Ed in the Tribune claiming the opposite in spite of facts previously reported in the Tribune?
- Feed up - Thursday, Jul 8, 21 @ 10:11 am:
Is not working….datm spell check
- Lucky Pierre - Thursday, Jul 8, 21 @ 10:17 am:
Gun violence is certainly a public health crisis for the innocent people who get shot
The real crisis is the failure of the city’s and state’s leaders to marshal federal resources during the previous administration to address the gang violence/ illicit drug trafficking by undocumented Chicago residents affiliated with the cartels
- Edyrdologist - Thursday, Jul 8, 21 @ 10:36 am:
The Chip Mitchell WBEZ piece you linked is a great look at CPD Supt. Brown’s claims about bail reform driving the summer violence this year and just how spurious a basis those claims rest on. Brown and Lightfoot are just looking for excuses for why their traditional, status quo policing strategy has had such little impact on the level of violence in the city while also taking a cheap shot at reformers who want significant changes in the city’s approach to public safety.
- Louis G Atsaves - Thursday, Jul 8, 21 @ 10:47 am:
Are these the bail reforms that were implemented by the Chief Judge in Cook County or the reforms that are being phased in by recently enacted legislation coming out of Springfield?
Either way we may have to wait and see a little longer if the effects are positive or negative.
- Amalia - Thursday, Jul 8, 21 @ 10:53 am:
Don’t know what studies Supt. Brown claims refute the Loyola study, but there is analysis from the Manhattan Institute in City Journal to the contrary of the Loyola claim. Trouble is, if you look at sites that give actual crime information there is a worrying tally of serious crime committed by those on bail and on ankle monitors. these stories are painful. Actual cases…not just numbers… should give more thoughts about policies and the way forward. what is the phrase Tony LaRussa uses about baseball….observational analytics?
- PublicServant - Thursday, Jul 8, 21 @ 11:19 am:
Basing the analysis on arrests while on monitoring is only one aspect. It’s not a true measure of crimes, which may not be reported due to the fear of retribution from those released. Also, one needs to be caught to be arrested, many crimes go unsolved and it’s an unknown factor that is difficult to measure. There is more being hidden by the Chief Judge’s office since the FOIA provisions are not applied to the courts in the same manner. Loyola study is flawed.
- Bennie - Thursday, Jul 8, 21 @ 11:30 am:
The study stopped collecting data in Dec 2019, a lot has changed since the pandemic. And I wouldn’t be excited about a 17% re-arrest rate while on bond (the 3% is only for murder/rape/assault type charges).
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Jul 8, 21 @ 11:38 am:
===Loyola study is flawed===
Maybe some. But CPD’s “facts” are completely made up.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Jul 8, 21 @ 11:42 am:
Please don’t post long excerpts of copyrighted material in comments. Thanks.
- Chicagonk - Thursday, Jul 8, 21 @ 11:55 am:
The bail reform arguments are a distraction from real issues that have been causing crime spikes in Chicago. Clearance rates in Chicago for violent crime are abysmal and this falls on CPD, the court system, and the States Attorney. And hearing Kim Foxx refer to illegal gun possession as non-violent recently shows where her priorities lie.
- JJJJJJJJJJ - Thursday, Jul 8, 21 @ 11:59 am:
@ Chicagonk
Strictly speaking gun possession is not a violent crime. This is a category of crimes in which violence occurs. Owning a gun illeglly, while concerning, is not violent.
- Yep - Thursday, Jul 8, 21 @ 12:02 pm:
Yep another day another program. Just like fifty years of drug programs and a trillion dollars later the problem is worse today. More money/programs won’t fix what ails us. The question shouldn’t be what causes crime it should be what causes virtue.
- Shield - Thursday, Jul 8, 21 @ 12:08 pm:
==In comparison, CPD’s annual budget is $1.7 billion.==
Sounds like we need an Abe Beame.
- JJJJJJJJJJ - Thursday, Jul 8, 21 @ 12:23 pm:
@Amalia
==Don’t know what studies Supt. Brown claims refute the Loyola study, but there is analysis from the Manhattan Institute in City Journal to the contrary of the Loyola claim.==
My greatest pet peeve on this site is people not linking to stuff. It’s not hard. One google search.
https://www.city-journal.org/bail-reform-in-chicago-has-increased-crime
This is the section I believe you are referring to:
“But if 500 additional people were released under the order, and the same share of released individuals reoffended, then the total number of crimes in Chicago would necessarily rise. It’s a mathematical fact: more offenders multiplied by a constant crime rate equals more crimes. Using precise figures from the paper, the 9,200 individuals released following reform committed roughly 1,573 crimes and 294 violent crimes. If only 8,700 offenders had been released, they’d have committed 1,488 new crimes and 278 violent crimes. In other words, the release of just 500 people led to roughly 85 additional crimes, including 16 additional violent crimes.”
What that author omits, and what explains Loyola’s conclusion, is that 85 additional crimes during the span of the study, when compared to total crimes committed, is not statistically significant. In fact, that is what Loyola says: “no statistically significant change in the level of crime.”
So, the Manhattan Institute guy does not refute Loyola.
- RamblerFan - Thursday, Jul 8, 21 @ 12:24 pm:
As someone who knows the Loyola study “intimately,” all research has limitations, but better to use the best objective, rigorous research available to guide policy and practice than guesses. The bail reforms implemented in Cook County took place in 2017 (which is what the Loyola study examined) and the reforms recently passed don’t go into effect until Jan 2023. Difficult to link those 2017 and future 2023 changes to what happened in 2020 and is happening in 2021. Between 2017 and 2019, after the Cook County bond court reforms had been in place for two years, murders in Chicago had decreased 24%. Explaining the 55% increase in homicides from 2019 to 2020 within the context of COVID requires alot more than pointing to a policy from 2017 as the blame, particularly when up until 2019 things seemed to be improving.
As for people who illegally possess guns being violent, that too is difficult to examine objectively, but some recent research by Loyola has shown that most of those arrested for illegal gun possession in Cook County/Chicago have never been CONVICTED of a violent crime (https://www.luc.edu/media/lucedu/ccj/pdfs/CookCountygunpossessionbulletindecember2020.pdf). Usually decisions made in the courts that rely on criminal histories of people need to be based on convictions, not arrests that never resulted in a conviction or hunches.
- 14th ward - Thursday, Jul 8, 21 @ 12:33 pm:
Whatever study or statistician you want to follow, there is a crisis on MLL hands. When fall arrives and we open schools, there will be many empty seats in the classroom; along with empty seats around the dinner table. She needs help and guidance.
- 1st Ward - Thursday, Jul 8, 21 @ 12:50 pm:
In the footnotes of the study of appendix B table B.2 states that violations of probation/bail have almost doubled from 6.2% pre-reform to 11.7% post reform. I don’t buy CPD’s narrative but I also don’t buy the one being pushed by Judge Evans and CCSA Foxx. I do find it ridiculous that this dude from Iowa got such a low bond regardless if he commits another crime while out on bond. Especially after what we learned about the Las Vegas shooter scoping out hotels across from Grant Park for Lollapalooza a few years back. It’s sending a message that these types of crimes are not serious and that as a society we will not take them seriously until the unthinkable happens.
- @misterjayem - Thursday, Jul 8, 21 @ 1:43 pm:
“fifty years of drug programs”
The War on Drugs was a “drug program” in the much the same way that Fat Man and Little Boy were an “urban renewal program.”
– MrJM
- chijeep - Thursday, Jul 8, 21 @ 3:01 pm:
K.Foxx is a public defender masquerading as a prosecutor. Her policies and the anti-police rhetoric currently prevalent are two causes of the police backing off of crime prevention.
- Amalia - Thursday, Jul 8, 21 @ 7:37 pm:
Aha. Percentages are not numbers, stories, crimes. Presiding Judge Evans was just on Chicago Tonight. The transcript will have important information. It went something like this…. When asked by PSchutz if the figure of over 2500 out on bail/monitored who committed another violent crime was correct, Evans said yes, but it is only 3-4% of those out and the 97-96% success rate is great. He also said that these out on monitors are monitored 24/7, lol, McDonald’s shooting Judge. the numbers are high in failure in and of themselves because the full numbers of crime are extremely high. Victims are victims. those over 2000 victims don’t feel like this is success.