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Cook Political Report: Democrats’ future congressional majority depends on Illinois, New York remaps

Wednesday, Jul 14, 2021

* Axios

The Democrats’ “only chance of keeping the House” next year is if they redraw congressional lines to their advantage in New York and Illinois, Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman tells Axios’ Stef Kight.

Why it matters: The GOP is already poised to take advantage of its control of map-drawing in more states than Democrats. But Democrats have a chance to eliminate as many as seven Republican House seats in just New York and Illinois through redistricting in states they control.

    • New York and Illinois are both set to lose a House seat because of slower population growth.
    • On top of ensuring Republican districts are the ones lost to reapportionment this year, Democrats could rework the maps to help them pick up an additional four districts in New York and one in Illinois, said Wasserman, who focuses on redistricting as Cook’s House editor.

The big picture: Republicans will get to draw congressional district lines in big battleground states like Texas, Georgia, North Carolina and Florida. They were able to draw maps to maximize their partisan advantage after the 2010 census too.

    • “The two states that Democrats control that are big, or where there’s margin left, are New York and Illinois,” Ben Williams, a nonpartisan redistricting specialist for the National Conference of State Legislatures, told Axios.
    • Few other states offer options to create new, blue congressional districts, he and Wasserman said.

Maybe.

I think the media and the GOP are vastly underestimating the very real and growing anger out there among people who did the right thing and got vaccinated. Hyper-politicizing public health because your whole strategy is designed to appeal to a vocal and know-nothing segment of your base could very well backfire on the GOP… again.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

25 Comments
  1. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 14, 21 @ 12:28 pm:

    For me, this discussion to “drawn seats” and “presumed leaning”

    Casten and Underwood…

    The angst in suburban Illinois (to keep it Illinois centric to a possible national feel) made the thoughts of Ives, Oberweis…

    … Foster, Schneider, Krishnamoorthi

    Seats long given up, now after Trump and the pandemic, the suburban foothold lost… Hastert (no loss there, but I digress) Dold, Walsh… those losses now givens to Dems, and won’t be swinging any time soon.

    5 seats… all but lost.

    Ya think a map is going to bring back… 3 of those?

    Throw in Kinzinger, for good measure.

    Make the Bustos seat Red, let Kinzinger’s seat trend blue, let some phony Trumpkin conspiracy theorist run there… in a toss up…

    Illinois “Republicans” have marginalized themselves in such a way that a shrinking base demands unequivocal purity, so pure that being competitive in a competitive district is a non-starter… way before Trump, insurrectionists, and the ugly of a racist wing took hold of the brand.

    “These seats are going down. I can’t stop it anymore”


  2. - ZC - Wednesday, Jul 14, 21 @ 12:33 pm:

    They really don’t need to pick up many House seats however. They could run a fairly rotten 2022 and belly flop over the finish line, given how many factors are currently trending in their favor. I think the dynamics you are outlining, could be more at play in statehouse races and the battle for the US Senate in 2022.


  3. - @misterjayem - Wednesday, Jul 14, 21 @ 12:35 pm:

    “The GOP is already poised to take advantage of its control of map-drawing in more states than Democrats.”

    If anything is always the absolutely worst possible strategy, it’s unilateral disarmament.

    – MrJM


  4. - EssentialStateEmployeeFromChatham - Wednesday, Jul 14, 21 @ 12:35 pm:

    ==Make the Bustos seat Red,==

    Couldn’t they, by default, move LaHood into the Bustos seat by adding all of Peoria County (including Dunlap, where he’s from) into the new 17th? And drop a lot of rural GOP leaning townships in some counties (e.g., trim back Fulton County except for Canton, most of Carroll County except for Savanna and along the river), plus extend the district to include Macomb and WIU?


  5. - EssentialStateEmployeeFromChatham - Wednesday, Jul 14, 21 @ 12:39 pm:

    ==plus extend the district to include Macomb and WIU?==

    Or as an alternative extend the new 17th along I-74 from Peoria to include Bloomington-Normal. Depending on how much more of the Metro East the new 13th takes in, most likely B-N is going to be the area dropped in the new map.


  6. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 14, 21 @ 12:40 pm:

    === Couldn’t they===

    They could do all kinds of things… but not give up the 13 seats that already *are* Dem leaning, (at the least) and swapping Kinzinger for Bustos (I mean, the Trumpkins want Kinzinger gone, right) the 13-4 ratio remains.

    That means Miller/Bost/Davis trifecta vie in two seats… and looking more and more like Davis is scared of Miller so that works itself out.

    They can do lots… but can’t diminish the 13-4… and can’t roll a 14-3 map without it being untenable to any honesty to a pretending to a “fair map”


  7. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Jul 14, 21 @ 12:41 pm:

    Meanwhile, in Colorado (language warning):

    https://politicalwire.com/2021/07/09/quote-of-the-day-2933/


  8. - Nick Name - Wednesday, Jul 14, 21 @ 12:42 pm:

    ===I think the media and the GOP are vastly underestimating the very real and growing anger out there among people who did the right thing and got vaccinated.===

    Hopefully a lot of people saw that clip of attendees at last weekend’s CPAC convention literally cheer for more death. Hopefully Democrats are smart enough to use that clip in campaign commercials.


  9. - muon - Wednesday, Jul 14, 21 @ 1:11 pm:

    One of the potential challenges for mappers is whether Hispanic population growth will be enough to require a second seat. It was a point raised last decade during litigation, but numbers weren’t yet high enough to require a seat.


  10. - Norseman - Wednesday, Jul 14, 21 @ 1:16 pm:

    === Hyper-politicizing public health because your whole strategy is designed to appeal to a vocal and know-nothing segment of your base could very well backfire on the GOP… again. ===

    From your lips to God’s ears.


  11. - SWIL_Voter - Wednesday, Jul 14, 21 @ 1:17 pm:

    I think there’s a real possibility we won’t see another Democratic President in our lives. These new election laws give multiple states the ability to overturn results and send whatever electors they want. In order for Dems to win they’re going to need even bigger blowouts than are currently required. They already have to win by 7 million in order to have a chance


  12. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 14, 21 @ 1:31 pm:

    ===I think there’s a real possibility we won’t see another Democratic President in our lives.====

    As fragile as this democracy is, it held under the heavy pressure of 2020.

    The access, the idea of access, to voting is more of a danger than actual results.

    When you think about AZ’s “phony recount”… in another state… hidden… the reality is the winners of elections *now* will be predicated on access to voting, more than manipulating any process to counting.

    The maps being drawn and the access to vote are far more dangerous to the democracy… today.


  13. - MZ - Wednesday, Jul 14, 21 @ 1:38 pm:

    ===I think the media and the GOP are vastly underestimating the very real and growing anger out there among people who did the right thing and got vaccinated.===

    I’m not entirely convinced this will be that much of a factor in terms of 2022; however, I do see your point. The factor will end up being the independents and moderates and how they view the Dems and GOP. If what you’re saying turns out to be true then the GOP is really digging itself into a grave by sticking hardcore to Trump and not doing something about people like Greene. They really need to take a deep look at areas they lost in terms of the Presidential election and not just pander to Trump. Assuming they do either a). fail to take the house, b). lose seats even after an edge in redistricting or c). both. I really hope, for their sakes, they take a deeper look at their failings. Who knows…maybe they’ll finally apologize to Kinzinger and Cheney (sarcasm implied).


  14. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Jul 14, 21 @ 2:13 pm:

    What could be wrong with us as a country if we’ve suffered through a pandemic and then get re-emerged in it because of vast refusal to get vaccinated? Hopefully this will outrage enough voters to make a difference. They don’t have to like Democrats necessarily, but maybe they will be angry enough to vote against the anti-vaxers.

    Democrats have a small time window until 2023 in which to get big things done, i.e. infrastructure. That means perfectly threading the needle. That means purity taking a back seat, moderate purity and leftist purity, and commitment to enacting both infrastructure plans. If they don’t deliver, their bad political fate would be substantially on them.


  15. - ZC - Wednesday, Jul 14, 21 @ 2:13 pm:

    The issue environment changes so much in a year. By this time in 2022, it could be all post-Roe v Wade, all the time. (Vaccinations, what was that about?)


  16. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 14, 21 @ 2:15 pm:

    === Roe v Wade===

    As far as polling goes, who would that help?


  17. - Dave Fako / Fako Research & Strategies - Wednesday, Jul 14, 21 @ 2:22 pm:

    Our public opinion research firm has done a lot of policy polling on vaccinations, including pre-COVID early February 2020 - when we picked up on anti-CV19 vaccines before evrything went sideways and a vax that was not even on the radar. Rich’s point about the sentiments of those who did the right thing has relevance.


  18. - JB13 - Wednesday, Jul 14, 21 @ 2:51 pm:

    –I think the media and the GOP are vastly underestimating the very real and growing anger out there among people who did the right thing and got vaccinated –

    Because the country wants laws passed to force everyone to get vaccinated?

    Or because Democratic governors and a Democratic president will overreact and implement mitigations to protect people who don’t want their protection? Then say, in effect, “Look what you made me do?” Or “This hurts me more than it hurts you?”


  19. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jul 14, 21 @ 2:57 pm:

    ===Because the country wants laws passed to force everyone to get vaccinated?===

    No because some idiots are refusing to pull their own weight during an ongoing crisis, you dummy.


  20. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 14, 21 @ 3:11 pm:

    === Or because Democratic governors and a Democratic president will overreact and implement mitigations to protect people who don’t want their protection? Then say, in effect, “Look what you made me do?” Or “This hurts me more than it hurts you?”===

    Are *you* vaccinated… or is this some sort of silly dorm room fear?


  21. - Corn Country - Wednesday, Jul 14, 21 @ 3:17 pm:

    The election won’t turn on vaccination. (there are plenty of folks in the rural areas who have made great efforts to be vaccinated - the stereotyping doesn’t help in any direction…)

    Economic issues and safety perceptions will be the top items - look at the recent New York City mayoral contest.


  22. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jul 14, 21 @ 3:51 pm:

    ===look at the recent New York City mayoral contest===

    The national media is based there. Just because they think they’re the center of the universe doesn’t mean everyone else has to pay such close attention.


  23. - Joe Bidenopolous - Wednesday, Jul 14, 21 @ 3:53 pm:

    =Economic issues and safety perceptions will be the top items - look at the recent New York City mayoral contest.=

    Sorry, I’m just a bumpkin from Chicago. NYC had an election?


  24. - Nick - Wednesday, Jul 14, 21 @ 3:53 pm:

    14-3 here we come


  25. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 14, 21 @ 3:56 pm:

    === 14-3 here we come===

    You’re betting Pritzker will agree to that, out his signature *on that*

    I’m not sold on that premise.

    13-4 from a time of 10-8… and losing a GOP seat merely by drawing it away… tough to say you are for any thoughts to fair after signing the GA maps, the ILSC maps… then… a 14-3 map?

    Hmm.


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