The Democrats’ “only chance of keeping the House” next year is if they redraw congressional lines to their advantage in New York and Illinois, Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman tells Axios’ Stef Kight.
Why it matters: The GOP is already poised to take advantage of its control of map-drawing in more states than Democrats. But Democrats have a chance to eliminate as many as seven Republican House seats in just New York and Illinois through redistricting in states they control.
• New York and Illinois are both set to lose a House seat because of slower population growth.
• On top of ensuring Republican districts are the ones lost to reapportionment this year, Democrats could rework the maps to help them pick up an additional four districts in New York and one in Illinois, said Wasserman, who focuses on redistricting as Cook’s House editor.
The big picture: Republicans will get to draw congressional district lines in big battleground states like Texas, Georgia, North Carolina and Florida. They were able to draw maps to maximize their partisan advantage after the 2010 census too.
• “The two states that Democrats control that are big, or where there’s margin left, are New York and Illinois,” Ben Williams, a nonpartisan redistricting specialist for the National Conference of State Legislatures, told Axios.
• Few other states offer options to create new, blue congressional districts, he and Wasserman said.
I think the media and the GOP are vastly underestimating the very real and growing anger out there among people who did the right thing and got vaccinated. Hyper-politicizing public health because your whole strategy is designed to appeal to a vocal and know-nothing segment of your base could very well backfire on the GOP… again.