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Hospital admittance rate for unvaxed nearing last fall’s peak

Friday, Aug 27, 2021

* Rick Pearson, Lisa Schencker and Joe Mahr at the Tribune

A Tribune analysis of state and federal data has found that the rate of hospitalization for the unvaccinated [in Illinois] has risen nearly sevenfold since the end of June. The weekly rate of hospital admittance for that group is now above 28 per 100,000 residents, approaching the peak of 35 last fall.

The vaccine doesn’t stop every bad case, but the analysis found that for those fully vaccinated, the weekly hospital admittance rate is far lower, barely 2 per 100,000 residents, albeit still about four times higher than it was at the end of June before the surge in delta cases. […]

When averaged over the past week, the southern region’s ICU availability was just 4% of all its staffed ICU beds — far lower than the 20% threshold that the state had previously set as one marker for considering mitigations. Half of the state’s other 10 regions also averaged lower ICU availability than that threshold, including Chicago (17%), suburban Cook (17%) and North Suburban (15%).

A little over half the population here is fully vaxed, so the surge isn’t putting the same pressure on hospitals as it was last fall, when nobody was vaccinated. But it’s really getting bad out there, particularly in the south. As we have seen time and time and time again, things can always get worse before they get better

URBANA — As more of their beds fill up with COVID-19 patients, administrators at local hospitals are appealing to the thousands of unvaccinated people in their communities to get their shots.

“The hospital is filling up,” said Matthew Kolb, Carle Health’s chief operating officer.

IDPH probably needs to go back to daily updates.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

25 Comments
  1. - The Dude - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 6:30 am:

    The article also says Vax are 4x higher than in fall. That’s very concerning because that’s only in last few weeks and few weeks ago breakthrough were rare in the data.

    The Vax only gets weaker over time. We need to stop thinking of it as a Vax and think more like a temporary shot that boosts your immune system momentarily and demand a real Vax that is lasting.


  2. - Anon221 - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 7:10 am:

    The Dude- Just like the annual flu, COVID-19 has mutations, just on “steroids” for changes during this pandemic- months of mutations instead of yearly or even years for influenza. It is likely that, just like the annual flu shot, we’ll need booster shots annually to combat those changes that evolve in the COVID-19 virus. We were extremely fortunate, I believe, to have had 3 shots that have been as effective as they have been as long as they have been to date. Boosters should help get us through the fall/winter and into next spring, when a more targeted and refined vaccine might be needed depending where we are on the Greek alphabet scale of mutations by then.

    https://www.wane.com/top-stories/health-experts-encouraging-others-to-get-flu-shots-sooner-than-later/


  3. - natty lite - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 7:19 am:

    Dude - the key to a “lasting” vaccine is giving the virus fewer opportunities to mutate into new strains. The Delta variant is evolution and natural selection at work. Virus is constantly reproducing, some of those reproductions have random mutations that make them better suited to reproduce (i.e., better suited to be easily passed among people). To all the anti-vax folks out there: don’t think of it as a vaccine, think of it as your own personal battle against evolution.


  4. - Mason born - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 7:22 am:

    Just my 2c, but we are never going to be at Covid 0. In our entire history we’ve only ever eradicated Small pox, if the vaccines continue to keep the infections minor for the Vaccinated that’s a win. If the shots make Covid basically a flu for the vaxed then we can all move forward eventually, sooner if we can reduce the number of unvaxed.


  5. - Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 7:24 am:

    “demand a real vax that is lasting”

    Because Moderna, Pfizer, and J and J have been kicking their feet up and relaxing since developing the first vaccine.

    Things take time, genius. You sound like every other entitled American who honestly think they have some devine right for immediate gratification.


  6. - PublicServant - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 7:39 am:

    Freedom isn’t free.


  7. - NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 7:52 am:

    == when a more targeted and refined vaccine might be needed depending where we are on the Greek alphabet scale of mutations by then==

    And I would also think by then scientists would find a way to combine the Covid vaccine with the flu shot (and perhaps get the Pfizer/Moderna double doses down to a single dose with the same effectiveness). Meaning one shot for both flu and Covid. Even if it means you get your combined shot every 8 months instead of annually (and hopefully insurance will change to provide for 8-month Covid/flu shot intervals).


  8. - NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 7:59 am:

    ==IDPH probably needs to go back to daily updates==

    I second that motion. And unless they’re doing it already (but I admit I look mostly at regional/county positivity rates when I checked the IDPH site), IDPH needs to also have separate sets of COvid stats for the vaccinated and unvaccinated (and maybe another set for kids 12 and under not eligible for vaxes yet). To get a better idea on the number of breakthrough cases that are going on (and if some of the deaths are among vaccinated people due to Delta).


  9. - NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 8:01 am:

    Honestly, even if we actually get Covid under control, after this ordeal I refuse to ever go back to “normal” again. No big indoor/outdoor events for me (e.g., fairs, Major league ballgames, festivals), limiting the amount of stores I shop in, not wanting to eat at restaurants much, etc.


  10. - Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 8:19 am:

    “Honestly, even if we actually get Covid under control, after this ordeal I refuse to ever go back to “normal” again. No big indoor/outdoor events for me (e.g., fairs, Major league ballgames, festivals), limiting the amount of stores I shop in, not wanting to eat at restaurants much, etc.”

    I did this a few years ago as a matter of frugality and belt-tightening.

    You’ll be amazed the amount of money you’ll have left at the end of the month.


  11. - Pundent - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 8:25 am:

    Daily updates do seem beneficial at this point. We also need to get more pointed with our data wherever possible. A year ago we saw that this disease was particularly dangerous and deadly with the elderly. But with the the unvaccinated trend the demographics are now very different and we’re seeing this impact people that are far younger and in most instances could take steps to protect themselves. That needs to be the messaging. With the exception of those under 12 and immunocompromised, this is now still largely a virus of choice. But because of the way this virus is mutating, the vaccinated are now more at risk than they should have been. We need more immediate consequences for the unvaccinated (mandates, higher premiums, medical treatment differentiation) and to start building encouragement for boosters as soon as they’re available.


  12. - NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 8:27 am:

    ==I did this a few years ago as a matter of frugality and belt-tightening.

    You’ll be amazed the amount of money you’ll have left at the end of the month.==

    Yes indeed, I know that difference very well–and that amount goes as extra contributions either into my Roth IRA or mutual fund accounts (I’ve picked mutual funds with about 10-12% ROI since inception). And I can see the difference in my investment totals periodically.


  13. - Banish Misfortune - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 8:34 am:

    “if we can reduce the number of unvaxed”

    They seem to be doing that by themselves


  14. - Eastern Bloc Mitigation - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 8:57 am:

    What happened to the state’s 5-phase Restore Illinois plan? Is it defunct now? Looks like the whole state is still considered to be in phase 5, but the actual metrics and the new mitigations recently announced would suggest we should be moved back to a more restrictive phase.


  15. - Anonymous - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 9:04 am:

    I’m in the Novavax trials and am fully vaccinated with Novavax. From what I’m reading and what little info I get from Novavax and my trial site it appears Novavax may be more durable than the mRNA vaccines. Novavax uses a more traditional vaccine platform. The best part is that I had very minor side effects, a slight headache after the first dose and minor fatigue after the second dose. I hope they get an EUA from the FDA soon so everyone can benefit from this vaccine.A lot of people specualting the the mRNA manufactures are in bed with the FDA, which is slowing Novavax approval. I don’r believe that, I think it has more to do with mismanagement on the part of Novavax.


  16. - Pundent - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 9:05 am:

    =What happened to the state’s 5-phase Restore Illinois plan? Is it defunct now?=

    It largely ended with widespread vaccine availability. Because that signified our opportunity to defeat the virus. We blew that opportunity.


  17. - RetiredStateEmployee - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 9:05 am:

    People have 2 choices, get the vaccine or get the disease.


  18. - NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 9:13 am:

    ==It largely ended with widespread vaccine availability. Because that signified our opportunity to defeat the virus. We blew that opportunity.==

    Since we blew the opportunity, bring back the phase system. Or at least put the whole state back on Phase 3 or 4.


  19. - Leap Day William - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 10:03 am:

    === Yes indeed, I know that difference very well–and that amount goes as extra contributions either into my Roth IRA or mutual fund accounts (I’ve picked mutual funds with about 10-12% ROI since inception). And I can see the difference in my investment totals periodically. ===

    Right when the pandemic started picking up steam in March 2020 and safer-at-home became a thing, I realized I probably wasn’t going to be traveling for a while so I went ahead and set my 403(b) and 457 contributions to max out, and kept it there until we returned to the office this August. The only silver lining to this pandemic is that while it has been a huge negative for everything else in my life, it has been extremely good to my supplemental retirement portfolio; like 75% growth good.


  20. - LakeCo - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 10:23 am:

    Mason born - I don’t disagree with you, but don’t forget polio


  21. - Techie - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 10:52 am:

    @Anonymous @ 9:04am

    Yes, I read an article which discussed the Novavax vaccine. It has a similar level of effectiveness as Moderna and Pfizer, but is made using more traditional vaccine technology than mRNA. I don’t remember them discussing the longevity of protection, but wouldn’t be surprised to find that it’s more durable than mRNA.

    The fact that it’s as effective, but made using traditional technology, should help assuage the concerns some people have about mRNA vaccines. It’s really a shame the media hasn’t discussed the Novavax vaccine for precisely this reason. I wouldn’t be surprised if a good quarter or more of current vaccine holdouts would feel a lot more comfortable taking the Novavax vaccine than Pfizer/Moderna (no mRNA) or Johnson and Johnson (no known issues with blood clots, and Novavax is more effective).


  22. - Cool Papa Bell - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 11:32 am:

    = natty lite - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 7:19 am:

    Dude - the key to a “lasting” vaccine is giving the virus fewer opportunities to mutate into new strains. =

    Yep. The fewer chances the virus has to replicate, and it replicates the most in the very sick, the longer the vaccine works and better it is for everyone.

    Curiosity peaked about the Novavax..

    But get me under 12 from FDA like NOW. I trying hard to think that the FDA is doing the right thing here. But what is the material difference between an 11 1/2 year old and a smaller 12 year old? Frustrated and slightly worried parent.


  23. - Mason Born - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 12:18 pm:

    Lake Co

    I think we don’t consider Polio eradicated since it still raises it’s hideous head in 3rd world countries. 84 cases in 2020.


  24. - Dotnonymous - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 1:04 pm:

    Zoonotic viruses can not be eliminated due to the viral reservoir in animals.


  25. - Grandson of Man - Friday, Aug 27, 21 @ 3:23 pm:

    This is happening in large part because of the unvaccinated. It is exacerbated by the anti-maskers and anti-mandate people, and the policians who pander to or support them. People are politicizing health facts, something that didn’t happen in the past. Now many are taking unproven, unapproved animal de-wormer pills and getting sick.


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