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The numbers are pretty clear, so don’t believe 14-3 is a safe bet

Wednesday, Dec 1, 2021

* Sun-Times

Mayor Lori Lightfoot is in DC through Friday, kicking off her visit on Tuesday night with a dinner Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., hosted for the delegation in his Capitol office, and – to my surprise – since usually only Democrats show up at this sort of thing – in walked GOP Rep. Rodney Davis. […]

Before he left, Davis made a bold political prediction […]

Not so fast on that 14-3 outcome Democrats are claiming they will have [with the new congressional district map], Davis told me. […]

Some of those 14 districts have Democratic supermajorities; the Democratic edge in two or three other districts outside of Chicago is much thinner, and I asked Davis – we were out of earshot from the others - about their potential as swing districts.

“I’ll be happy to say very loudly here, we are going to compete in a lot more districts then what the Democrats in Springfield who drew this map thought we would,” he said.

The only people who are publicly saying this is a 14-3 map are some discredited DC “experts” who have said all sorts of weird and flat-out false things since the remap process began.

It’s probably 14-3 in an optimal Democratic cycle, but I don’t know anyone who believes that the Democrats will reverse the overwhelming historical trend and actually gain seats nationally next year.

* Look at the off-year numbers on this chart…


Remember, 2018 was a great year for Democrats in Illinois because it was an off-year for an unpopular Republican president and the Republican governor up for reelection here was a walking dumpster fire.

I tend to look at the AG results, the closest of the bunch. There are three “Democratic” congressional districts on this chart where Kwame Raoul won by about 3 points. That’s the best place to start: Casten/Newman, Foster and the new 17th (formerly Bustos). And then go from there, perhaps even to the 2016 comptroller’s special election. Factor in a likely Democratic slump, and you can see that anyone who claims this is definitely a 14-3 map might wanna lay off the weed.

* Here’s what Rodney Davis told Dave Dahl when asked about that purported 14-3 split

I certainly hope the Democrats thinks that. I certainly hope that the Illinois Democrats believe that that Republicans are only going to have three members of Congress after this next election. Because I think they’re going to be shocked, just like many in the media might be shocked.

We’re going to win. We’re gonna win more seats than the three that they’ve planned. Esther Joy King will be a member of Congress in the 17th district. We will have candidates in all of the districts that we see that are competitive, be it the new 13th district, we will have Republican candidates there that will be able to compete and win that district. And then the suburban districts. We saw in Virginia, we saw in New Jersey that even safe Democratic districts are no longer safe in a year where the American people are very frustrated with the Democrats lack of willingness to address the violent crime that’s plaguing our major cities in our country right now.

…Adding… McHenry County Blog

On Monday, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter issued its initial ratings for the 2022 congressional elections for Illinois’ 17 congressional districts.

Based on Cook‘s estimated partisan voting index (PVI) of the new districts, the following ratings were assigned:

    IL-17 (open): Tossup, estimated PVI of Democrat +3
    IL-13 (open): Leans Democrat, estimated PVI of Democrat +4
    IL-14 (Underwood): Leans Democrat, estimated PVI of Democrat +4
    IL-06 (Casten & Newman): Leans Democrat, estimated PVI of Democrat +5
    IL-11 (Foster): Likely Democrat, estimated PVI of Democrat +5

All 12 other districts are rated “safe” district, based on the Democrat or Republican incumbent representing them currently or who’ve declared their reelection.

Cook’s famous PVI is based on presidential election years, however.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

35 Comments
  1. - OneMan - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 10:32 am:

    == hat anyone who claims this is definitely a 14-3 map might wanna lay off the weed. ==
    But it provides revenue…

    To the actual question, it’s interesting that Underwood seems to have been considered the seat to pick up, but using those numbers there are some better options.

    Will Foster go to his own pocket to help protect his seat? Already seeing some Underwood ads on youtube, not seeing anything from Bill yet.


  2. - Jasmine - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 10:40 am:

    If the Democrats can make the November 2022 a referendum on Democracy itself, it will be another banner year for Illinois Democrats.

    Judge: Trump and allies ’stoked the flames of fear’ that led to Jan. 6 violence

    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/12/01/judge-trump-allies-jan-6-violence-523600


  3. - Life long Independent - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 10:41 am:

    For the R’s to win one of those seats they are going to need a moderate that can attract Suburban House Wife’s. So my advice going forward don’t engage Ives or Proft in the race or that Candidate is DOR.


  4. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 10:51 am:

    The one thing I do know, prognosticating a year away, is so much is going to change, but a Presidential Midterm is continually bad for that President’s party.

    I also know that today SCOTUS is hearing the Mississippi abortion law case. SCOTUS plans to hear the Texas abortion law case too. I can’t imagine diminishing Roe will be helpful in an overall come election time in Illinois.

    Candidate recruitment is critical too.

    I don’t know after these cases are heard that a staunch pro-life candidate cheering the Mississippi or Texas laws and rulings will be helpful, or Dems here reminding voters what those rulings could mean.

    I’d bet against 14-3, but I have no idea how these two cases and the rulings after will change the landscape for the GOP.


  5. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 10:54 am:

    ===a referendum on Democracy itself===

    That’ll likely go right over everyone’s heads, particularly independents. You gotta talk about what voters are talking about in real life, not on Twitter.


  6. - The Captain - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 10:57 am:

    The accomplishment for the Dems is that the seats most likely to be contested lean more Democratic than they did before the remap. However, as many have pointed out these seats are still vulnerable in a wave, just as they were before the remap.


  7. - low level - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 10:59 am:

    As usual, OW is exactly right. If Dems dont get a better message on Education and Crime, there are going to be upsets. However, if Roe is overturned, that will change the dynamic.


  8. - Norseman - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 11:41 am:

    === a referendum on Democracy itself ===

    Rich is right. While our democracy is at risk, too many people don’t care or don’t believe the facts. As we’ve seen by our pandemic response. People only think about themselves and the current price of …


  9. - truthteller - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 11:47 am:

    if democratic voters show up and vote, 14-3 will be met. The slow roll on DOJ, JAn 6th and the special committee will impact outcome as we know from the watergate era, When the public see countless GOP’ers take the 5th infront of the cameras, that imnpacts the voter’s set that GOP corruption is real


  10. - Hahaha - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 11:52 am:

    Commenters like truthteller and Jasmine live extremely online lives and get their punditry from twitter. The cake is baked on headwinds a year out as it almost always is on a midterm. The question is whether it will be a pretty good year for the GOP or a massive red wave like in 2010. Pretty good year nets republican CD 17 and maybe one other surprise. A red wave means Rs are sweeping all those CDs mentioned by Rich.


  11. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 12:07 pm:

    === The question is whether it will be a pretty good year for the GOP or a massive red wave like in 2010.===

    I can’t imagine a massive wave if SCOTUS rules against Roe in these cases from Mississippi and Texas. Frankly, if SCOTUS rules in favor of Mississippi and/or Texas it will be difficult to change the narrative too far that the GOP is dangerous to women’s health, and polling on abortion is so far a pro-choice lean.

    https://bit.ly/3lmwxAQ

    Even a year out, headwinds, and the midterm blues, SCOTUS could change the playing field?

    See me in June.


  12. - RNUG - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 12:15 pm:

    I’ve said it before, and Rodney sees it, crime is going to be one of the major issues this campaign cycle.

    Factually, I overall crime is down, but serious crime is up, and that segment is getting plenty of print and air time. The old broadcast adage is true: if it bleeds, it leads. So the perception of more crime is up … and all the social media outlets are driving that.

    Like Rich said, most voters don’t do nuance. And right now it is all background noise and a general feeling of unease; a lot of voters don’t even tune in until 30 days before the general election.

    It’s too early to know, but if we have another Summer of cities burning, I can imagine a red wave bigger than anything we have ever seen.


  13. - Thomas Paine - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 12:32 pm:

    It’s a competetive map, Democrats should agree loudly with Davis that its a competitive map, and frame it accordingly.

    “Out of earshot of most, Congressman Rodney Davis has admitted that Republican claims that the Congrsssional map was gerrymandered to make it uncompetitive for Republicans is hogwash. We agree with Congressman Davis that this is a competitive map.

    Republicans can compete, and win, if voters choose to go back to the era of Trump and the Trump agenda: price-gouging by pharmaceutical companies and big corporations, stealing from the middle class to give to the rich, a crippled economy, and a never-ending war on the rights of women, immigrants, union members, people of color.

    If the voters want to go back to that, Republicans will do well and could retake control of Congress, but if Illinoisans wants to continue to make progress toward a brighter future, Democrats have a great opportunity in 2022.”


  14. - City Zen - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 12:36 pm:

    ==a referendum on Democracy itself==

    See: Virginia.


  15. - Lucky Pierre - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 12:49 pm:

    As usual OW gets it exactly wrong.

    It would be earth shattering if the Supreme Court overturned 50 years of precedent but the impact in Illinois would be absolutely zero given the makeup of our state legislature no one thinks will be run by Republicans anytime soon


  16. - Lucky Pierre - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 12:53 pm:

    Stealing from the middle class to give to the rich?

    The Republican Party is unanimously against fully reinstating the SALT deductions that is the biggest line item in Democrats BBB and only benefit the wealthy in blue states.


  17. - low level - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 2:20 pm:

    ==absolutely zero given the makeup of our state legislature no one thinks will be run by Republicans anytime soon==

    Are you a GOP strategist? If so, please go with that reasoning. Maybe 1 in 10 voters know the partisan makeup of the legislature. 10 in 10 understand choice.


  18. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 2:22 pm:

    === It would be earth shattering if the Supreme Court overturned 50 years of precedent but the impact in Illinois would be absolutely zero===

    Really?

    You think those Congressional seats will flip Red with the Texas and Mississippi laws being upheld?

    That’s… in Illinois…

    Huh.


  19. - Joe Bidenopolous - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 2:23 pm:

    =The Republican Party is unanimously against fully reinstating the SALT deductions that is the biggest line item in Democrats BBB and only benefit the wealthy in blue states=

    So Republicans are for being taxed twice. Got it.

    Also, methinks you forgot the Trump tax bill. That was a $1.9 trillion bill (Build Back Better is about $1.5T for comparison) in which 66% of the benefits when to the top 20% of all earners in 2018. By 2027, the top *1%* will receive 83% of all benefits from that tax bill.

    But please, do go on about how Republicans fight for the working class


  20. - John Lopez - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 2:49 pm:

    === So Republicans are for being taxed twice. Got it. ===

    Double-taxing is illegal.

    Every metric out of think tanks, including left-leaning ones, proves elimination of SALT (state and local taxes) deduction limits benefits the rich.

    Senate may cap House-passed BBB provision to households making under $400K.

    The Underwood-Casten legislation is a more reasonable approach to dealing with SALT deduction limits, but that did not pass the House.


  21. - City Zen - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 2:52 pm:

    ==So Republicans are for being taxed twice.==

    If that’s a problem, then Illinois can let taxpayers deduct federal income taxes paid from state taxable income, like Iowa.


  22. - John Lopez - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 2:58 pm:

    === You think those Congressional seats will flip Red with the Texas and Mississippi laws being upheld? ===

    Yes. If TX/MS laws upheld, no impact on Illinois thanks to SB 25 in 2019.


  23. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 3:35 pm:

    ===no impact on Illinois thanks to SB 25===

    No legal impact. Voters don’t do nuance.


  24. - JS Mill - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 3:39 pm:

    =like Iowa.=

    You mean progressive income tax Iowa?

    At least we can build a decent bridge.


  25. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 3:44 pm:

    === Yes. If TX/MS laws upheld, no impact on Illinois thanks to SB 25 in 2019.===

    (Sigh)

    If I’m to believe Crime and such is a big deal, and I’m not saying they’re not, how can abortion rights after these two cases, decided in an election year *not* be a big deal if these decisions are seemingly going against the national trend?

    “Do you support the right to an abortion”

    Rich is on it, voters don’t do nuance, but they may have an opinion on abortion and where a congressional candidate stands.


  26. - John Lopez - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 4:24 pm:

    === Rich is on it, voters don’t do nuance, but they may have an opinion on abortion and where a congressional candidate stands. ===

    I don’t do nuance either, I deal with facts and the record.

    Every congressional incumbent cast a vote on September 24 on H.R. 3755, the “Women’s Health Protection Act”, the federal legislative equivalent of Roe v. Wade.

    Republicans from IL voted against it, Democrats from IL voted for it.

    SCOTUS decision or not on TX/MS cases that won’t impact Illinois, H.R. 3755 is closest a U.S. House member gets to Roe v. Wade.

    Don’t forget the Hyde Amendment, and why mainstream voters who are pro-choice don’t believe tax dollars should be used to fund an abortion outside of rape, incest or threat to mother’s life.

    Even Jim Edgar recently said he believes repeal of parental notification went too far.

    Where congressional candidates stand on abortion will have little bearing on 2022 being a Republican year given the issues facing voters now and 11 months from now, even in Illinois.


  27. - City Zen - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 4:28 pm:

    ==You mean progressive income tax Iowa?==

    Correct, the state that taxes retirement income progressively allows those retirees to deduct the federal income taxes they paid on their retirement income from their state taxable income. This is an important deduction because retirement income is taxable in progressive Iowa.


  28. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 4:38 pm:

    === I don’t do nuance either, I deal with facts and the record.===

    Elections are won or lost on issues where voters can relate to the thoughts.

    Republicans are dangerous to women’s health is one issue that voters can relate to if the Mississippi and Texas laws are upheld.

    === Even Jim Edgar recently said he believes repeal of parental notification went too far.===

    The thing you want is a nuance to a bigger picture.

    If you think that’s smart politics, then the follow up will be “do you think a 12 year old should be required to carry a pregnancy to term?”

    It’s statutory rape, but parental notification?

    Abortion is not a winner for Republicans.

    If it was, social media would be chock full of Republicans excited the Mississippi case was being heard today.

    Nuance.


  29. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 4:39 pm:

    === Where congressional candidates stand on abortion will have little bearing on 2022 being a Republican year given the issues facing voters now and 11 months from now, even in Illinois.===

    Then why are there no pro-choice Republicans now running in Illinois?

    You think on that.


  30. - Dotnonymous - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 4:43 pm:

    I have never used the word “bold” and the name Rodney Davis in the same sentence.


  31. - John Lopez - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 4:47 pm:

    === Abortion is not a winner for Republicans.

    If it was, social media would be chock full of Republicans excited the Mississippi case was being heard today. ===
    @GOP tweeted the following this morning supporting TX & MS:

    “Life is precious. Republicans will always stand for the sanctity of life.”

    === Then why are there no pro-choice Republicans now running in Illinois?

    You think on that. ===

    Nothing to think about, same goes for pro-life Democrats in Illinois, and what happened to the Democrat who didn’t vote for SB 25 in 2019?

    Double-edged swords cut both ways.


  32. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 4:52 pm:

    === @GOP tweeted the following this morning supporting TX & MS:

    “Life is precious. Republicans will always stand for the sanctity of life.”

    === Then why are there no pro-choice Republicans now running in Illinois?

    You think on that. ===

    Nothing to think about, same goes for pro-life Democrats in Illinois, and what happened to the Democrat who didn’t vote for SB 25 in 2019?

    Double-edged swords cut both ways.===

    Hmm. Yeah. Hmm.

    So… after all that… you still think abortion won’t be an issue for Republicans… oh… and Democrats are pro-choice so they won’t be motivated to make any curtailing of abortion, which by the way polls better, a campaign issue.

    Boy, it sounds like in two comments you contradicted yourself.

    No nuance there.

    :)


  33. - low level - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 4:59 pm:

    John Lopez:

    Citing HR 3755 (US House) and SB 25 (Illinois) is wonderful for those of us who follow inside baseball stuff, but you’d be hard pressed to find 1 in 100 voters who know what those are or why they matter.


  34. - John Lopez - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 5:09 pm:

    === Citing HR 3755 (US House) and SB 25 (Illinois) is wonderful for those of us who follow inside baseball stuff, but you’d be hard pressed to find 1 in 100 voters who know what those are or why they matter. ===

    I’ll leave it to the creative minds among the better campaign consultants to communicate the facts to something that connects to mainstream voters and storyboard them into TV commercials for broadcast TV.

    That’s why firms like that make big bucks.


  35. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 1, 21 @ 5:35 pm:

    === I’ll leave it to the creative minds among the better campaign consultants to communicate the facts to something that connects to mainstream voters and storyboard them into TV commercials for broadcast TV.

    That’s why firms like that make big bucks.===

    “Republicans are dangerous to women’s health”

    That’s what is gonna be out there. If you nuance that, you’re explaining… if you’re explaining, you’re losing.


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