Does ballot order matter?
Thursday, Mar 24, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I posted the Board of Elections ballot position lottery results yesterday, but Taylor Avery fleshes it out for Sun-Times readers…
In a crowded race, candidates vie for any advantage they hope will mean the difference on Election Day — such as being listed first on the ballot.
Whether that coveted position will turn the tide for Darren Bailey remains to be seen, but the state senator from southern Illinois was celebrating Wednesday after he won the lottery for the top spot on the June primary ballot for governor.
“GOOD NEWS: we’re first on the Republican Primary ballot to fire JB Pritzker,” the Xenia Republican shared on Facebook and Twitter following the lottery. […]
“It’s tradition. It’s part of the summer camp aspect of campaigning,” [Christopher Mooney, a political science professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago] said. “But does it have an impact on average? No, it doesn’t. But again, in an individual case, who’s to say? We don’t know.”
Jesse Sullivan got the last spot on the ballot.
* Kina Collins fundraising email…
With the help of over 100 volunteer petition circulators, our campaign submitted six times the minimum number of petitions required to get on the ballot. But to be first on the ballot in Illinois, you have to win a lottery. Literally.
Well, guess what? We WON the lottery. Yesterday, we found out that my name will be listed first on the ballot on June 28th. Above the incumbent! This is a huge opportunity for our campaign. Studies suggest that being first on the ballot can add as much as 10% to a candidate’s vote share.
Collins is up against US Rep. Danny Davis.
From the study she referenced…
Abstract
Texas primary and runoff elections provide an ideal test of the ballot order hypothesis, because ballot order is randomized within each county and there are many counties and contests to analyze. Doing so for all statewide offices contested in the 2014 Democratic and Republican primaries and runoffs yields precise estimates of the ballot order effect across twenty-four different contests. Except for a few high-profile, high-information races, the ballot order effect is large, especially in down-ballot races and judicial positions. In these, going from last to first on the ballot raises a candidate’s vote share by nearly ten percentage points.
Governor’s races are high-profile, high-information contests and Collins is running against a legendary political figure. The study found a big impact on down-ballot races with “high rates of voter abstention.” This is mainly due to voter fatigue as they move down the ballot. Local judges are often at the bottom, so that’s where the biggest voter abstentions are and where ballot position is most important.
…Adding… Alexi Giannoulias fundraising email…
This month has been a defining moment for our campaign for Secretary of State. We filed our petitions and are now officially on the ballot, winning the FIRST position on the ballot. I’m immensely grateful for all the overwhelming support we’ve received as we head into the final 100 days of the primary campaign. We could not have achieved this momentum without your early support of our campaig
This is, of course, another high profile, up-ballot race.
- Huh? - Thursday, Mar 24, 22 @ 9:20 am:
IMO, ballot order doesn’t matter if you are a thinking, knowledgeable voter.
- Bruce( no not him) - Thursday, Mar 24, 22 @ 9:25 am:
I only vote for the first name cause they have to be the best to be first, right? /s
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Mar 24, 22 @ 9:28 am:
===thinking, knowledgeable voter===
Therein lies the rub.
- Baloneymous - Thursday, Mar 24, 22 @ 9:30 am:
when it’s AAA Alpha Plumbing in the phone book, it matters, but when it’s a Xenia Republican, not so much.
- MisterJayEm - Thursday, Mar 24, 22 @ 9:30 am:
I always figured that being first in a down-ballot race could be advantageous because in a crowded race you can tell voters, “Mine will be the first name on your ballot.”
That way, even if they forget the name of the nice lady who came to the door…
Might not make much difference, but in tight races it doesn’t take much to make a difference.
– MrJM
- thisjustinagain - Thursday, Mar 24, 22 @ 9:35 am:
“I’m first on the Republican ballot in Illinois”
– future former candidate who didn’t win.
- Tom - Thursday, Mar 24, 22 @ 9:36 am:
Why the so-called media continue to go to supposed experts on topics few of them ever have competed in is beyond me. Moody is wrong. It is evident in scholarly journals and polls ballot positions do matter. Every race has low information voters and if you don’t think so, you haven’t run one. Some of those low infomration voters will pick top or bottom names on a ballot. The studies show it to be true.
- Norseman - Thursday, Mar 24, 22 @ 9:37 am:
I doubt it matters in higher office races and perhaps to a small degree on lower ballot races.
This reminds me of the poli sci class discussion of the voting pattern that was observed during the year of the legislative blanket ballot. People went down from the top of the first column and up from the bottom on the second.
- Michelle Flaherty - Thursday, Mar 24, 22 @ 9:41 am:
“My friends, I won the lottery,” — Bailey.
“Hold my chardonnay,” — Irvin, sitting atop a pile of Ken Griffin’s cash.
- left of what - Thursday, Mar 24, 22 @ 10:01 am:
Ballot order matters, it matters more down ballot where the candidates are less likely to be known to voters, but definitely matters for all races to some extent.
- Long time Independent - Thursday, Mar 24, 22 @ 10:10 am:
I think it matters in down ballot races and if it’s a Female/ Male race. Being a Male I definitely would prefer the number one spot in a race against a Female. JMO
- ArchPundit - Thursday, Mar 24, 22 @ 10:16 am:
===This reminds me of the poli sci class discussion of the voting pattern that was observed during the year of the legislative blanket ballot. People went down from the top of the first column and up from the bottom on the second.
Hadn’t even thought of that, but it makes sense. I haven’t kept up on the literature for ballot position, but as far as I’m aware Tom is correct here in terms of the lit. Top of the ballot it doesn’t matter much, but even SoS is a position that many not pay attention to so I’d rather have the top position than the middle position.
- left of what - Thursday, Mar 24, 22 @ 10:21 am:
I would also add, that study Collins is referencing looks a little suspect that it would have found an effect size that large. Typically you might expect like .5% to 5% bump depending on the election and candidates. Also, SSRN is not a peer reviewed platform so that is probably someone’s term paper or something.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Mar 24, 22 @ 10:22 am:
===an effect size that large===
Mainly at the bottom of the ballot. Long lists of judges nobody ever heard of.
- left of what - Thursday, Mar 24, 22 @ 10:27 am:
==Long lists of judges nobody ever heard of.==
That also makes a lot of sense.
- Huh? - Thursday, Mar 24, 22 @ 10:59 am:
“winning the FIRST position on the ballot”
Thanks for the advance notice. I won’t have to look for your name on the ballot.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 24, 22 @ 11:26 am:
I’ve felt ballot positions matter, still do, especially when folks rarely know about candidates for races some aren’t even aware are on that ballot.
It’s enough of a matter of “mattering” like the margin of error in polls? Maybe, but I’m sure I don’t wanna say it doesn’t matter.
- The Way I See It - Thursday, Mar 24, 22 @ 11:46 am:
The Michelle Flaherty comment above is why I wish this blog had a like feature. That literally made me laugh.