In Madison County, IL:
- Sheriff: Jeff Connor is likely favored to win the Sheriff nomination for the GOP (and due to the Democrats not fielding anyone, will all but flip the office red). Connor has been endorsed by many Dems, while Jeff Larner is the Madison County Conservative Caucus-aligned choice.
- Madco Treasurer: Incumbent Chris Slusser is doing his best to fend off MCCC-backed Doug Hulme. Slusser has the narrow advantage.
- IL-HD112: Establishment-oriented candidate Joe Hackler and Speak For Students-backed QAnon candidate Jennifer Korte are battling for the right to face State Rep. Katie Stuart (D) this November. Korte seems to be favored.
- US Senate: Peggy Hubbard’s signs are being seen the most down here, and is the narrow favorite to be the nominee, who’ll lose to Duckworth in the General.
- Secretary of State: Anna Valencia likely wins Madison County for the Democrats and could be close statewide.
- Governor: On the GOP side, it’s a battle between Irvin and Bailey.
Looks like the GOP has more motivation in the primary, largely due to the Gubernatorial and Senatorial primary (and the Sheriff and Treasurer ones to a lesser extent), though the Dems have the Secretary of State and the IL-13 races that are up for grabs.
Lots of inexplicable interest group decisions in the Democratic legislative races. Labor, abortion, and gun groups are all over the map, opposing reliable allies who are also favorites to win. Feels like a lot of folks aren’t thinking clearly about the fundamentals and will have a lot of regrets after June.
Good week for Irvin. Went through Tribune and Daily Herald ed boards proving he is fully capable of articulating positions on all issues, fast on his feet in a debate and loaded for bear against his opponents. Gone is the “not ready for primetime” drumbeat if anyone cared to notice. Will be curious to see if Bailey stays away from NBC debate for fear he’d get beaten badly. Bailey’s Rauner campaign manager likely advising staying in his basement and letting DGA ads speak for him.
- Governor looks like a two-way race on the GOP side, but I think the Senate primary deserves more attention since it appears to be close with a huge number of undecideds. If the nominee is really out there, it could blow up on the whole ticket even with their having little chance in the general.
- Dem SOS race is making it look like a prime opportunity for a GOP pickup.
- In my local congressional race at this early stage I think it will be Casten vs Pekau in November, a stark contrast.
- Bruce( no not him) - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 4:04 pm:
Primary day can’t come soon enough.
- Back to the Future - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 4:05 pm:
I keep getting pollster calls for the Dem Candidates in my Congressional District.
I keep saying I am voting for Danny Davis and the pollster then starts talking about the other candidate. We used to call those “push polls”.
Thinking Danny still has some gas in the tank and will win another term. Always felt like I owed him my vote for things he did in the past.
I believe that Irvin will win the Republican primary but come away nearly as damaged as Rauner was by Ives for not meeting various purity tests.
SoS is clearly in play for the GOP. And the winner will likely face Giannoulias. I see Casten beating Newman in the race that matters most too me. She’s simply got too many issues and suffers from the same acerbic attitude as Lori Lightfooot.
Unsurprisingly I see a lot of Dan Brady signs in McLean County, even in yards next to Darren Bailey signs when Dan Brady is not your Eastern Bloc type and has had a lot of GOP grumbling the last couple cycles for not being conservative enough. Maybe he will benefit being off the slate headed by Irvin given how poorly received Irvin is downstate?
Even though both Biden and Durbin won McLean County in 2020 it appears that once again the county Dems failed to field any candidate for sheriff, treasurer or the judge seats up for election but I have not seen any sample ballot as of yet.
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Friday, May 20, 22 @ 4:38 pm:
A lot of meh on the Democratic primary side. Alexi v. Valencia, Kaegi v. Steele, Ramirez v. Villegas. I will have to pick one of each to vote for, but none have really won my vote.