Suburbanite- I am guessing the polling is just fine based on the continued DGA concerns and spending…which you do not count in your 39 to 1 ratio comment. The more that people see Bailey and hear him the more they run, they will run to Schimpf or Sully or Rabine, but run they will. Very few people can imagine Beetle running a lemonade stand, let alone a State. He is that scary Republican that Jim Edgar warned us about. He would absolutely ruin the GOP for the fall and everybody understands that.
Rabine and Sullivan will each be clawing their way to 12% of the vote. Solomon and Schimpf will top out around 2.5% each. That leaves 71% between Irvin and Bailey. First one to 36-37% is going to be the nominee. I agree with Elliott Ness, and believe Bailey may lose a little support over the next 27 days…Richard Irvin will win with somewhere between 37 and 40% of the vote.