Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » *** UPDATED x1 *** Irvin pulls Downstate ads, “reassessing” ad strategy with 20 days to go
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*** UPDATED x1 *** Irvin pulls Downstate ads, “reassessing” ad strategy with 20 days to go

Wednesday, Jun 8, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* According to a search of Facebook’s ads, Richard Irvin’s campaign has been dark on that platform since May 27th. Irvin currently has $960,000 [UPDATE: It’s now $937K, down from $960K, but that was down by about half from $1.8 million] of ads on Chicago broadcast through next Monday, but has nothing on the air and nothing booked Downstate at the moment except for a little bit of cable. This explanation is kinda weird since he has so much Griffin money and Griffin said he was going “all in.” And if he stops talking to Downstate voters, he will lose even more of them to Bailey…


I just didn’t buy that explanation, so, when pressed, the campaign told me they’re “reassessing” their ad strategy. Apparently, this darkness isn’t permanent. That would be a good thing because what they’ve been doing clearly isn’t working. They’ve been caught red-handed on their ridiculous claims that Darren Bailey is a Democrat. Crime is not polling as voters’ top interest.

“I’m willing to bet he’s up with all new creative and a more right wing brand to court the Bailey voters,” said one Dem operative, who I think could be correct.

But with 20 days until June 28th, and early voting happening now, it’s awful, awful darned late for a reboot. If that’s what is really going on.

*** UPDATE *** Here’s what I have been told since the post went up: Pritzker’s hard-hitting ads have put Irvin in the spot of either taking a hard right turn and risk killing his general election chances, or just say to heck with all this, be who he is on Chicago broadcast TV (because doing so Downstate would hurt him) and let the chips fall where they may. The Democrats would love him to lean hard to the right, but apparently, he isn’t gonna do it.

       

102 Comments
  1. - Socially DIstant Watcher - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 4:36 pm:

    Maybe that poll showing Bailey ahead wasn’t so far off?


  2. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 4:37 pm:

    ===wasn’t so far off? ===

    Maybe so. Something surely happened.


  3. - AlfondoGonz - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 4:40 pm:

    Irvin is gonna wind up in a campaign add wearing a carhartt shooting at thing that symbolize crime, abortion, and higher education.


  4. - NIU Grad - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 4:40 pm:

    “says 52% of electorate is in ChicagoTV markets”

    Already giving up on Downstate and he hasn’t even won the nomination…imagine how much attention he’ll give if elected?

    You’d think he would be trying harder to court Chicagoland voters with a more moderate message if this was the strategy…


  5. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 4:41 pm:

    Yikes.

    The thing about big ships going at fast rates on the high seas…

    … it’s tough to change course and when you do it’s not a guarantee to course correct will be in time.

    Whew.


  6. - Baloneymous - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 4:41 pm:

    On this morning’s open thread, I was going to post that I haven’t seen Irvin ads since last weekend or even last week and wondered what was going on. And then I forgot to post it.


  7. - New Day - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 4:45 pm:

    I know I sounds like a broken record, but where is the money? Griff gave him $50 million and he only put $14 million on TV through last week and he was bragging about this pushing you to put up his silly spreadsheet. Where. Is. The. Money????


  8. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 4:47 pm:

    “I’m willing to bet he’s up with all new creative and a more right wing brand to court the Bailey voters”

    Even more phoniness? Irvin is being attacked by multiple GOP/PAC campaigns for this very reason. Those TV ads are brutal.


  9. - Dance Band on the Titanic - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 4:47 pm:

    With less than 3 weeks left, it is virtually impossible to find an Irvin campaign sign anywhere on a suburban lawn. This is not a campaign that seems to have any real momentum.


  10. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 4:47 pm:

    ===Where. Is. The. Money?===

    Everyone is winning. Like Proft, it’s the money made that is the thing, not the money spent.


  11. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 4:48 pm:

    The best team that money can buy is flailing in the home stretch. I’d feel sorry for them, but then I remember that they are burning unlimited cash that they didn’t need to raise and I’m thinking they should lose their license to work on campaigns if they come up short to Darren “Hey Friends” Bailey.


  12. - New Day - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 4:49 pm:

    BTW, to my point, with $50 million, they can afford to run crappy ads while they’re coming up with better ads. Nobody would have noticed. Now we all get to point at the failed campaign. Dumb. Dumb. Dumb.


  13. - Skeptic - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 4:50 pm:

    I was wondering why TV was 1/3 less annoying lately.


  14. - Alice Childress - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 4:53 pm:

    2 takeaways: 1) my first reaction after reading this post (and I bet it was shared with many others) was, ha ha ha. 2) I’m starting to believe that both Griff and the Irvin campaign thought Bailey and his campaign could never compete with their war chest; thought he was a downstate clown with outrageous positions.

    Well hey, at least Bailey has positions. Irvin? Not so much.

    I’m still giggling that they need to “reevaluate.”


  15. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 4:55 pm:

    Changing traffic just as the January 6th hearings begin and the Supreme Court is set to drop decisions on a few major issues. Oof. It’s going to be a bumpy three weeks for Ken Irvin. I mean Mayor Griffin.


  16. - ;) - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 4:55 pm:

    Boy, IL must be the only state where crime isn’t polling high. Crime is polling right at the top of the list everywhere else in the country, and the campaigns and election outcomes thus far are reflecting it too. So, either IL truly is an outlier with crime polling low or perhaps the pollsters are missing something…again. We will know in a few weeks I guess, but my money is on what I hear at the doors I am knocking with my Dem turfs at trust me, crime is definitely coming up a majority of the time.


  17. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 4:58 pm:

    ===to my point, with $50 million, they can afford to run crappy ads while they’re coming up with better ads. Nobody would have noticed.===

    Maybe the point is… not reminding folks about whom they are *not* voting for?

    Polling poorly, bad numbers to positive/negatives…

    You have the money, you have the talent… you go dark so folks forget to vote…?


  18. - Joe Bidenopolous - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 4:59 pm:

    ===Where. Is. The. Money?===

    Great question. No doubt their overhead is ridiculous - I assume they’re paying too many staff too much money. They’ve also been heavily invested in the socials. Figure their production shop/buyer eats up a pretty large chunk. Mail ain’t cheap (is he doing any?). The D2 will be interesting


  19. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 4:59 pm:

    ===Crime is polling right at the top of the list everywhere else in the country===

    No it isn’t. For example: https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-important-problem.aspx


  20. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 5:01 pm:

    ===they can afford to run crappy ads while they’re coming up with better ads.===

    Which is what those focus group ads may have been.


  21. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 5:02 pm:

    ===Crime is polling…===

    Meh. Gun control advocacy and abortion might eclipse so much more in the end… then throw in gas prices, inflation…

    Rich has the cite for “the now”


  22. - northsider (the original) - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 5:11 pm:

    Maybe the campaign invested in crypto?


  23. - Pundent - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 5:16 pm:

    It’s not that crime is or isn’t polling at the top of the list, it’s that Irvin is failing in his mission to make this the singular campaign issue. And part of that is due to the fact that Irvin isn’t a particularly good messenger.

    It seems as if the Griffin strategy here was to find a spokesperson capable of delivering this singular message. Irvin simply may not be the right person to do so. And at the same time, Bailey has shown the ability to run a multi-prong campaign as evidenced today by his gas tax stunt. That’s not to say that Bailey has been particularly effective. But he’s able to highlight where Richard Irvin is lacking. And that’s a problem for the Irvin team. And daylight is burning.


  24. - Chrishope - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 5:17 pm:

    This was the biggest waste of $50 million dollars even for a billionaire. Why doesn’t Ken Griffin just run himself? Those negative Richard Irvin TV ads must be working. I wonder if KG pulled the plug on the Irvin campaign.


  25. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 5:23 pm:

    Selling Mayor Irvin wasn’t the choice that that Crew thought could win.

    They conjured up Candidate Irvin, paired him with a young downstate seasoned female legislator, with conservative bona fides…

    I like(d) Mayor Irvin.

    This candidacy, campaign, strategy… the reason for the reset is conjuring something that doesn’t exist in one’s character rarely is seen by the public as relatable, policy or polling included.

    Rauner was an empty vessel phony, lacking actual character… soulless.

    Irvin is so bad at pressers, questions, not because he can’t campaign, it’s because he can’t be a soulless phony or something created for him.

    Now is the time it seems where it all caught up with things, and retracting, and not just retracting ads.


  26. - Real - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 5:24 pm:

    Sounds like Irvin and especially Griffin are in panick mode.


  27. - Nagidam - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 5:24 pm:

    I’m going to guess Leaders McConchie and Durkin are having bed sweats at night just thinking about an Irvin loss and all that cash leaving the playing field.


  28. - Real - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 5:29 pm:

    They’ve been caught red-handed on their ridiculous claims that Darren Bailey is a Democrat. Crime is not polling as voters’ top interest.

    -

    Looks like you can’t run a campaign on lies just because you have the money and think that you will be able to fool everyone. Irvin did not grassroots outreach and thought that he could stay in the basement and only depend on paid ads for outreach.


  29. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 5:31 pm:

    == election outcomes thus far are reflecting it too==

    One SF election under weirdo rules is doing a lot of work.

    == what I hear at the doors I am knocking with my Dem turfs==

    Oh god, we have another Super Canvasser.


  30. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 5:33 pm:

    If they are pulling ads it is not to reassess, it is because Griffin has cut off their money, because polling shows that Irvin has no chance of winning no matter what they spend.

    Their message is not moving voters, and switching messages now is not going to make Irvin seem any more authentically Republican.


  31. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 5:33 pm:

    ===but my money is on what I hear at the doors I am knocking===

    That you, - A Guy -?


  32. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 5:35 pm:

    ===The Democrats would love him to lean hard to the right, but apparently, he isn’t gonna do it.===

    So, no more interviews on Fox? I was kind of hoping he’d be on Tucker’s show next.


  33. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 5:37 pm:

    ===just say to heck with all this, be who he is on Chicago broadcast TV (because doing so Downstate would hurt him) and let the chips fall where they may===

    I was in that train from Jump Street.

    But what do I know?

    ===it is because Griffin has cut off their money, because polling shows that Irvin has no chance of winning no matter what they spend.===

    Dunno about that.

    Tactics to an end game and Rich’s update makes the most logical and obvious sense.


  34. - Immigrants Welcome - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 5:39 pm:

    Hooooo boy, I don’t see this ending well for Richard Irvin.


  35. - Baloneymous - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 5:44 pm:

    So the strategy now might be:

    Hope Chicago area voters forget the fake and lying Irvin for the past few months and now believe the real and genuine Irvin less than 3 weeks before the election with early voting already in process?


  36. - Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 5:45 pm:

    If you have to portray your candidate as two different people in two different parts of the state, and the actual candidate is really neither of them, that seems problematic. That’s quite a trick box they have built for themselves. Say what you will about Bailey but what you see is unfortunately what you get.


  37. - allknowingmasterofraccoondom - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 5:49 pm:

    A complete and total disaster of a campaign. Irvin and Griffin have not notched one single win, not one.

    Irvin comes across as so unbelievable, it’s unbelievable. I know Mayor Irvin, and he is not much like Candidate Irvin.


  38. - Real - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 5:50 pm:

    It’s time for leader Durkin to retire. He as IL GOP leader is to blame for selling out his party to the likes of Rauner/Griffin. The IL GOP would look a lot better if they stayed true to themselves and were not selling out to Raunerism type candidates.


  39. - Yeah, no - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 5:50 pm:

    So the strategy is to concede downstate to Bailey where the plurality of the gop votes are and let proft and JB devote all their resources to Chicago media?


  40. - New Day - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 5:55 pm:

    “It’s going to be a bumpy three weeks for Ken Irvin. I mean Mayor Griffin.”

    I see what you did there, 47.

    And yea, Rich, you’re absolutely right. The focus group ads are seriously craptacular.


  41. - vern - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 5:55 pm:

    So now we have 3 different explanations, none of which make any sense.

    1: the 52% statement to MAA
    2: A “reassessment”
    3: Refusing to go hard right

    But going dark isn’t the answer to any of those. Ok 52% of the electorate is in the chicago area, but the other 48% of the vote also counts so it’s worth trying to win some. If the creative isn’t working then sure you reassess, but there’s no way that 10 days of silence is better than running what they had. As for the “far right” thing, he’s not going to win more primary votes by moving to the left on Chicago TV, and he’s definitely not going to win more votes by ending communication downstate.

    It sounds like they’re rerunning the Rauner 2018 playbook which is basically just not throwing good money after bad. But if they’re gonna pick huge swaths of the state to not spend money on, they have to stop whining about being outspent. The money is infinite, so getting outspent is a choice they made.


  42. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 5:56 pm:

    === So the strategy is to concede downstate to Bailey where the plurality of the gop votes are and let proft and JB devote all their resources to Chicago media?===

    It’s 19 days out.

    Early voting is here.

    Large ocean steamers don’t turn on a dime.

    March, February, money is a commodity but time is worth much more. Folks are learning that.


  43. - Dirty Red - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 6:02 pm:

    Richard Irvin cannot win a Republican primary in central and southern Illinois as a “Chicago” mayor accusing his quite obviously pro-Trump opponents of being the opposite.

    What if Irvin tried a tact no other Republican ia doing: NEVER TRUMP!

    The bipartisan committee, of which Illinois is home to one of the “bipartisans,” is going to dominate the cycle between now and the primary. Navarro was just the beginning. Meanwhile, the Feds have a long way to go and plenty of milestones left in their corruption cases against prominent Chicago Dems and “the machine,” including old Irish ward bosses Madigan and Burke, who have their own connections to Trump and real estate wrongdoings.

    If you’re Bruce Rauner’s campaign team and borrowing from your 2018 playbook is not working, is it time to go instead to 2014 and start shaking up in Springfield? Tear down the whole thing! Look at this mess! Time to shake things up (again)!

    Populist reformers do pretty well here.

    GOPers are going to want distance from Trump to win here - especially with everything we’re about to “learn” about him. Right now Irvin has text messages and a bad playbook. He can only get rid of one of those things, and the texts play better in an Illinois general.


  44. - Been There - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 6:13 pm:

    ====And yea, Rich, you’re absolutely right. The focus group ads are seriously craptacular.====

    That’s not what “normal people” think. /s


  45. - TheInvisibleMan - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 6:14 pm:

    ==but apparently, he isn’t gonna do it.==

    Today, Aurora pulled the permit for the Pride parade.

    He’s going to have to run an awful lot of ads in the suburbs showing who he really is, after showing who he really is.


  46. - Donnie Elgin - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 6:16 pm:

    ==Early voting is here==

    GOP types tend to vote in person either early or on election day. Right now you need to schlep to the county clerks to vote early, June 13th is the real start to early voting.


  47. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 6:21 pm:

    ===June 13th is the real start to early voting. ===

    Irvin has been doing early voting events for days and days.


  48. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 6:26 pm:

    ===The money is infinite===

    They don’t even need more money. They have a ton of it on hand now.


  49. - Roadrager - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 6:37 pm:

    ==GOPers are going to want distance from Trump to win here - especially with everything we’re about to “learn” about him.==

    It’s all lies because he had the election stolen from him and that’s the extent of the coverage the GOP base is going to see on their preferred media outlets.

    It’s bad enough - but manageable - when your opponents make claims of you not sufficiently praising Dear Leader in the past. To do so in the present with your own mouth and money is career suicide.


  50. - Middle Way - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 6:38 pm:

    “Dirty Red” is on the right track with his comments.


  51. - Real - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 6:44 pm:

    ==GOPers are going to want distance from Trump to win here - especially with everything we’re about to “learn” about him.==
    -

    Irvin and Griffin have been using a lot of campaign ads focused on distancing Bailey and Sullivan from Trump.


  52. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 6:44 pm:

    Nineteen days to retool messaging that includes staying dark in central and southern Illinois while early voting has begun.

    It’s not Bailey, Trump, conservatives, Proft, Pritzker, money… it’s not even a message need … none of these, individually or collectively… are the problem(s).

    Time.

    Time passed, time yet to see…

    Time is the enemy.


  53. - Big Dipper - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 6:50 pm:

    ==== what I hear at the doors I am knocking with my Dem turfs==

    Oh god, we have another Super Canvasser.==

    Even if true the sane people don’t answer the door. He is talking to lonely kooks.


  54. - Dirty Red - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 6:56 pm:

    = Crime is polling right at the top of the list everywhere else in the country =

    Fun fact: Every time this is said outloud, the DGA releases a clip of an insurrectionist storming the Capitol on Jan. 6.


  55. - Norseman - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 7:00 pm:

    Ordering more popcorn. This is fun to watch.


  56. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 7:06 pm:

    Just saw an Irvin TV ad at his most right wing, attacking “handouts” and being liberals’ biggest fear. Now he might want to revert back to Mayor Irvin the liberal Republican, because the Raunerite manufacturing is failing. What a mess, of the candidate’s own making.


  57. - walker - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 7:50 pm:

    Economy and fears about my family’s future in general, way more important than crime, for voters in my area. I suspect they will be top issues in most states.


  58. - Only Way Forward - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 8:13 pm:

    The last path left to Irvin seems to be this. They need to prop up Sullivan downstate with aggressive spending targeting Bailey and promoting Sullivan. And run the moderate ads on Chicago media for Irvin. And, get as many +s as you can during early voting before the numbers get worse. Remember, Dillard lost in 2014 by only a couple points. Had the field cleared then he would have beat Rauner and his early lead.


  59. - G'Kar - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 8:14 pm:

    ==Mail ain’t cheap (is he doing any?).==

    I don’t know if that was snark or not, but a day doesn’t go by that I don’t get at least one, and sometimes two mailers from Irvin.


  60. - Crank - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 8:17 pm:

    JB’s team outsmarted them. Plain and simple. Everyone thought he was the frontrunner just because he had a team of has-beens and some money. Turns out you actually need to work to get elected and JB’s team beat them at their own game.


  61. - Fivegreenleaves - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 8:17 pm:

    I wonder how much the DGA’s ad about “Darren Bailey is too conservative for Illinois” is helping him downstate. They must want Bailey to win to play that kind of ad in rural Illinois.


  62. - Primate - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 8:18 pm:

    Could this be? No… The first signs of the end and purge of Raunerism along with its disciples? The Illinois GOP can only hope so.


  63. - Donnie Elgin - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 8:28 pm:

    ==Economy and fears about my family’s future in general==

    Agreed, and voters that go to polls based on the economy won’t be a plus for JB.


  64. - Mary Poppins - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 8:46 pm:

    Too bad Ken Griffin didn’t just invest the money he spent on this campaign in anything else, like scholarships for underserved kids from Chicago, seems like that would have been a better bet.


  65. - Suburban Mom - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 8:55 pm:

    Whenever I watch ANYTHING on YouTube (which isn’t super-often, and is always science videos with my kids), I get Irvin ads pre-roll and mid-roll. My kids are like, “UGH, THIS GUY AGAIN?” He’s the DeVry University of politicians, at least in terms of frequency of YouTube ads.

    And like, I cannot imagine a bigger waste of money than repeatedly targeting me personally with GOP ads, my social graph is left of AOC. I never get targeted by Dem ads unless they’re issue ads encouraging me to take a specific action; because they know I’m a reliable Dem voter based on my social graph, who will turn out for rallies and go door-knocking. But anyway, whoever is placing Irvin’s YouTube ads is fleecing him, because I’m seeing them three times per 6-minute dinosaur video and all it’s doing is irritating me more. It’s money thrown into a pit, and Alphabet and Meta both clearly know that I’m only interested in left-leaning causes; the issue ads they serve me reflects that, as does my profile that I can go in and review.

    Like, Irvin Team, I kind-of hope you lose to Bailey, because he’s a clown who has no hope in the suburbs or the city and I like to see Ken Griffin lose things. But your ad people are absolutely stealing your money for zero return with online ads, and are using your money to repeatedly show your ads to die-hard Democrats whose social graphs are exclusively left-leaning. I don’t know who they think they’re reaching on YouTube and FB, but their targeting is so terrible that I have to think someone is lying to them about who their ad is reaching or what the conversion rate is or something. It’s nonsensical, and the whole point of social media targeting is that you can reach actually persuadable voters.

    Irvin Team, get more competent social media advertising people, yours are EXTREMELY bad at their jobs. Ken Griffin, you are wasting your money, and honestly have you considered lighting it on fire? It’d be more useful that way; at least we’d have a neat bonfire.


  66. - Real - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 8:56 pm:

    Turns out you actually need to work to get elected and JB’s team beat them at their own game.

    -

    Yeah. Jb and Lt Gov both worked hard campaigning and traveling all over the state talking with voters during both the primary and general. Irvin has only been running ad’s and not engaging any type of voters.


  67. - Big Dipper - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 9:00 pm:

    The Rose Garden strategy only works for incumbents.


  68. - New Day - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 9:00 pm:

    “They must want Bailey to win to play that kind of ad in rural Illinois.”

    Gee, ya think?


  69. - Tired Teachet - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 9:01 pm:

    Why is this a surprise? Same foolish people that brought us Rauner are behind Irvin; who acts like a parody of a leader. JB will face Bailey and blow him out of the water in November.


  70. - Candy Dogood - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 9:06 pm:

    ===to court the Bailey voters,” said one Dem operative, who I think could be correct. ===

    Irvin is making an appropriate response and it suggests appropriate strategy. Some people in the GOP still haven’t figured out counties don’t vote, people do and in this primary the candidate that wins does not need 50%+1 they just need one more vote than the next closest candidate. After running ads and sending out mailers the Irvin campaign has the money to check whether or not those actions moved polling responses any in their favor and then change what their approach is going to be.

    Don’t mistake this as running for the hills, there’s a lot of GOP voters that would have never cast a ballot for a black man in a primary regardless of his past, positions, or views. There’s other factors that would make other voters unable to be persuaded and if I had data that told me that 20% of voters in Cook County and 20% of voters in Pope County were undecided, I know where I am spending my campaign chest and it isn’t Pope County. Even if 50% of voters in Pope County were undecided and just 5% of voters in Cook County were undecided, it isn’t going to be Pope County.

    I wouldn’t be so sure he’s planning on rebranding and coming out strong for the Bailey voters. He simply may not need to do that unless a bunch of people are about to drop out and start endorsing Bailey. Campaign where the voters are.


  71. - Excitable Boy - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 9:13 pm:

    Wait a minute, are you telling me team Z and the gang aren’t actually geniuses who use elite military tactics like “OODA” loops to win no matter the opposition? I feel like I’ve been living a lie for nearly 8 years.


  72. - Al - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 9:26 pm:

    Irving has come to a conclusion: he is running in the wrong primary. He will refile next week as a donkey./s


  73. - Shanna - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 9:44 pm:

    ===And yea, Rich, you’re absolutely right. The focus group ads are seriously craptacular.====

    That’s not what “normal people” think.

    That was so insulting. He knows no Black folks, no latino folks? That commercial made me so uncomfortable. I’m not a normal person. How can he pivot to Black folks after that?


  74. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 10:39 pm:

    Z and his merry band are laughing all the way to the bank. They should have let Irvin be Irvin instead of trying to make him into a caricature. Irvin isn’t a bad guy but he tried to be who they wanted in exchange for wheelbarrows of money.


  75. - Pot calling kettle - Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 11:08 pm:

    ===They should have let Irvin be Irvin instead of trying to make him into a caricature.===

    That would have been a good strategy from day 1. He would not have done well downstate, but with so many opponents, he didn’t need to. Unfortunately, that ship has probably sailed.


  76. - Galway Bay - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 5:43 am:

    Dillard could have won this. Good luck with Bailey in the general.


  77. - PublicServant - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 7:21 am:

    Golly Ken, if you’d have just paid the Fair Tax, you’d have saved yourself some money.


  78. - hisgirlfriday - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 7:51 am:

    @GalwayBoy - Dillard wouldn’t have got through the primary with the Obama endorsement millstone around his neck.


  79. - Lurker - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 8:15 am:

    New Coke changing back to the Original Coke worked for Coca-Cola


  80. - Real - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 8:34 am:

    Except he has never been old or new coke at any time.


  81. - Occasional Quipper - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 8:39 am:

    == or just say to heck with all this, be who he is ==

    What a unique approach that would be. If they would all just do that it would be a lot easier to choose.


  82. - Laketrail Runner - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 8:47 am:

    There is no reboot that’s going to solve this. Maybe just maybe the Irvin team should have spent less time telling everyone how smart they are and more time running an actual campaign.

    JB’s team outsmarted and outfoxed them at every step.


  83. - Arsenal - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 8:57 am:

    Let me tell you something: the candidate is the principal. It’s his name on the ballot, on all the signs. No campaign decision needs to be made without his say so. “Let Irvin be Irvin” assumes otherwise. This has been Irvin up to this point.


  84. - JS Mill - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 8:58 am:

    =Campaign where the voters are.=

    So absolutely correct. Bill Brady could have been our governor (thank goodness he wasn’t) had he understood the state he was trying to represent. Something the ILGOP candidates have messed up in recent years (the lone exception being Rauner).

    I think it is a huge mistake to take this development as a white flag or anything like that. nI seriously doubt Irv fully rebrands, more like tweeks the message a bit. No chance he goes full on Trumper style. He will get crushed in the general.

    Irvin is still the guy to beat in the primary. Bailey would be wise to get some of the others to drop out and help him.

    I will be voting for Bailey in the primary as I would be overjoyed to see that doofus get destroyed in the general and completely demoralize his base. That is not to say that it wouldn’t be fun to see the same thing happen to fast talkin Irv. But I have a special disdain for the likes of Bailey and the headaches his followers have caused for public education.


  85. - Juvenal - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 9:00 am:

    == or just say to heck with all this, be who he is ==

    Saying whatever he thinks is going to get him what he wants is who Richard Irvin is.

    When he is in Chicagoland, he supports exceptions for rape, abortion, and the health of the mother; when he is downstate he is 100% pro-life.

    When he is downstate, he is an ex-military 2A-er, when he is in Chicago he supports stronger gun control like background checks.

    You can’t get away with that in the internet age. People in Chicago know what you said in Danville before you’ve driven back home to Aurora now.

    If they thought they could take votes away from Bailey, they would put Irvin on camera saying whatever words they needed to come out of his mouth.

    What really did them in I think was losing the Chicago Tribune endorsement. That must have really boiled Ken’s britches.


  86. - Real - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 9:01 am:

    At this point there is no point in Irvin being Irvin. Who wants to vote for anyone that has alreasy shown they are sold?


  87. - duck duck goose - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 9:41 am:

    I think that Irving’s and Griffin’s mistake was giving the Republicans too much credit. They seemed to assume that the GOP voters would (at least eventually) line up behind a candidate that has a snow-ball’s-chance-in-hell of winning an Illinois general election. That assumption would be wrong. The Illinois GOP (particularly Downstate) seem pretty eager to re-elect Pritzker. A primary vote for Bailey, Sullivan, or Ravine is as good as pulling the lever for JB.

    At this point, I don’t see why Griffin continues to waste his money on Republicans. It seems like he could get a better ROI by buying Democrats.


  88. - Annonin' - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 9:50 am:

    This Just IN
    Another episode of “Ask Avery” this time from DarrenB. It has been so sad to see TrickyDick and ‘Riffie are still makin’ you wear your winter coat. Can we hope the during reboot someone runs out to Farm and Fleet and grabs you a new get up or two? Do we have to start a Go Fund Me Page? [


  89. - Montrose - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 10:14 am:

    *I think that Irving’s and Griffin’s mistake was giving the Republicans too much credit. They seemed to assume that the GOP voters would (at least eventually) line up behind a candidate that has a snow-ball’s-chance-in-hell of winning an Illinois general election. That assumption would be wrong.*

    I think that assumption used to be correct, but dynamics have changed, and Team Z’s tactics haven’t. You would have thought the “surprisingly” close primary between Rauner and Ives would have taught them a lesson or two.


  90. - Juvenal - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 10:27 am:

    === Maybe just maybe the Irvin team should have spent less time telling everyone how smart they are and more time running an actual campaign. ===

    This, all day. They seem to have hillaried it.

    Worse for their careers, they have fleeced Griffin in the process.

    And worst of all, they seem to have managed to accomplish something no other Republican operatives have accomplished ever: losing to Dan Proft.


  91. - Midwesterner - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 10:45 am:

    Being old enough to remember 1972, some GOP’ers thought it would be really cute to vote in the Democratic gubernatorial primary to support Dan Walker over Paul Simon. Their thought was Walker would be a pushover for incumbent Governor Richard Ogilvie. Unfortunately for them–and perhaps for Illinois as well, Walker beat him and four years of fun ensued.

    It would be highly ironic if Pritzker’s and DGA’s meddling results in Illinois ending up with Governor Bailey.


  92. - Roadrager - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 10:59 am:

    I think it’s a little presumptuous to say that this is now Darren Bailey’s nomination. This race is still Irvin’s to lose, and I think it would take a concerted, intentional effort on the scale of “The Producers” to lose it. He’ll win, just like Bruce Rauner won over Jeanne Ives. And I do mean just like it.


  93. - Louis G Atsaves - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 12:56 pm:

    The more they attack Irvin, the more I like him. The attacks on Irvin are as disgusting as the attacks on Bailey. And that includes the mailers that all are sending to my mail box. What is all this nonsense about who pulled Democratic/Republican ballots in the past not only in this race, but local races? Who is a real Republican/Democrat and who isn’t? I seem to recall Trump admitting to voting in a few Democratic primaries way way back in time and Reagan was a Democrat back in the day for years until he switched parties. We have a few locals in Lake County who switched from being Democrats into Republicans and vice-versa, including a few judges. What’s next, Secretary of State candidates vowing to be anti-choice or pro-life? Using Trump as a hammer against Republicans is OK but using Madigan as a hammer against Democrats is not?

    In the meantime, the mass shootings, not just in schools but in neighborhoods, shopping centers, stores continue and the press is totally fixated on them. Carjackings soaring? Threatening Supreme Court justices by protesting in their front yards? Now some clown is arrested for attempted murder of Justice Kavanaugh? Did we forget the poor Federal Judge who lost her husband and one child to a shooter upset with her rulings just a few years ago?

    If I am to believe the anti-Irwin ads and arguments, he strong armed the majority of Democrats on the Aurora council to vote to make Griffin billions of dollars? Hey, think about he can strong arm those super majorities of Democrats in Springfield. The ad tells me he can do what Rauner failed to do. He took care of his arrested girlfriend at the time yet the case remains pending in Kane County court? Not my definition of being taken care of. But the more we learn about him, the worse it gets. A Republican running that type of ad would be hounded out of existence. But a Democrat can? Irvin only says what Griffin wants him to say, making him a puppet on a string, or leaving us with the ugly visual that he is a bought black politician by a wealthy white man? Is that a Gone With The Wind thing here? Or just plain old systemic dating back to the Civil War or those Jim Crow days? Irvin is a Democrat because he complimented Pritzker on an Aurora visit while Mayor? Was he supposed to insult and swear at him him instead?

    Crime isn’t an issue. Keep talking like that gang. I know, we will always have crime. Crime figures go up and down. Crime is polling as a strong issue and the cumulative fears of crime, stampeding inflation rivaling the Jimmy Carter days, wiping out all those wage gains, skyrocketing gasoline prices that will hit $6 a gallon by next week in my area, empty shelves of baby formula and a foreign policy that looks like a train wreck that will exacerbate all of the above. All meaningless or not the fault of any local Illinois politicians. Yet locally didn’t our esteemed legislature and Governor freeze the latest automatic gas tax increase, to be unfrozen automatically next year? In Lake County we got hammered with a local gas tax. Didn’t those esteemed local unmentionables also tinker with a few previously passed crime reform bills and now are pointing to that tinkering to tell us that they aren’t really softies on crime?

    In the meantime, a record number of cops, nationally and locally, are getting shot. And Bill Maher last weekend bemoaned the end of civilization in this country and his rabid audience applauded him for speaking out.

    So don’t call me confused. Don’t call me any names. Save your breath and don’t waste any of that on me. I am reading and watching all this garbage this year with total astonishment. And yes, I put out a Irvin sign on my front lawn, along with Dan Brady and Kathy Salvi.

    November can’t come fast enough for me this year. After all, to paraphrase that wealthy guy who approved his own stupid set of ads, the more we find out, the worse it gets.


  94. - Da big bad wolf - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 2:31 pm:

    Louis G Atsaves I also don’t like negative ads but your long rant is confusing.
    $6 plus gas and baby formula and some nut stalking Kavanaugh then informing on himself to the police so he doesn’t do something horrible. Ok. What does that stream of consciousness have to do with the governor’s race?


  95. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 2:34 pm:

    ===Louis G Atsaves I also don’t like negative ads but your long rant is confusing.===

    He’s coming to a realization that Roe likely being overturned and Republicans stalling gun reform… in Illinois… those two realities make a GOP headwind possible.

    So, he pounds the table.


  96. - Louis G Atsaves - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 2:46 pm:

    ===He’s coming to a realization that Roe likely being overturned and Republicans stalling gun reform… in Illinois… those two realities make a GOP headwind possible.===

    Nope. Try again.


  97. - Fly like an eagle - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 2:48 pm:

    === And Bill Maher last weekend bemoaned the end of civilization in this country and his rabid audience applauded him for speaking out.===
    Referencing Bill Maher? Hoo boy, the atheist who is so self righteous and holier than thou he would embarrass the most rigid holy roller. Maher’s like the worst of both universes combined in one human being.


  98. - Real - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 3:00 pm:

    Louis G

    You mentioned liking Irvin and then how candidates sending you mail about how candidates voted in other party primaries. Last I checked is Irvins team was stuffing mailboxes with those claims. I stopped reading after realizing you are the buzz word type of voter that Irvin and Rauner target.


  99. - Louis G Atsaves - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 3:48 pm:

    ===you are the buzz word type of voter that Irvin and Rauner target.===

    Nope.


  100. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 3:59 pm:

    With respect,

    Rauner was - Louis G Atsaves - sponsor. His family did well those years.

    I may disagree with him, but - Louis G Atsaves - is being loyal.


  101. - Louis G Atsaves - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 4:27 pm:

    ===His family did well those years.===

    Nope. Minor pay increase with the promotion in exchange for 80+ hours 7 days a week is doing well in your opinion? Still nope.

    ===- is being loyal.===

    Nope. That one was you imitating Carson’s Karmak.


  102. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Jun 9, 22 @ 4:30 pm:

    ===Minor pay increase===

    Social services closed, your family made out better.

    ===That one was you===

    You are still loyal to the RaunerS…

    LOL

    Just own it.


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