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Fourth poll has Bailey in the lead, this time by 18 points

Wednesday, Jun 15, 2022

* Whew…


* No crosstabs. Methodology

Illinois Survey
• Conducted 06/10/22 - 06/13/22
• 1075 Respondents
• Likely 2022 GOP Primary Voters
• Response Rate: 1.43%
• Margin of Error: 2.9%
• Confidence: 95%
• Response Distribution: 50%
• Methodology: TheTrafalgarGroup.org/Polling-Methodology

* And this trend will add to the misery of establishment Republicans

Ms. Hubbard is, um, quite something.

* Pollster background

Trafalgar Group adjusts its polls for a “social desirability bias” effect, the hypothesized tendency of some voters to calibrate their responses to polls towards what they believe the survey taker would like to hear. It does this by not only asking respondents how they plan to vote, but also how they think their neighbors might vote. Former Democratic Party strategist Ed Kilgore, in New York Magazine in July 2020, criticized Trafalgar’s approach, writing, “The Shy Trump Voter may not be entirely a myth, but they’re not numerous enough to fill a Trump rally, much less change an election result or rebut a poll.” Responding to criticism of Trafalgar’s polling methods and its lack of transparency about its methods, Cahaly said in November 2020, “I think we’ve developed something that’s very different from what other people do, and I really am not interested in telling people how we do it. Just judge us by whether we get it right.”

In presidential polling, Trafalgar Group only conducts state-level polls; according to Cahaly, “we don’t do national polls, and that’s for the same reason I don’t keep up with hits in a baseball game: It’s an irrelevant statistic”.

Before the 2020 election, FiveThirtyEight gave Trafalgar a grade of C−. As of April 2021, FiveThirtyEight gave Trafalgar a grade of A−.

According to The New York Times, there is almost no explanation of the Trafalgar Group’s methodology: “the methods page on Trafalgar’s website contains what reads like a vague advertisement of its services and explains that its polls actively confront social desirability bias, without giving specifics as to how.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

99 Comments
  1. - Kris - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:15 am:

    The Bailey Bulldozer is rivaling the Trump Train…


  2. - So_Ill - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:15 am:

    I was honestly very hesitant to believe the first poll results showing Bailey up that was released by Proft. It’s impossible not to see where this race is at now.

    Republicans have completely lost their minds.


  3. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:15 am:

    I’ve felt in this 5 (I guess 6 officially) person race, anyone close to ~37% near or at the end is likely the winner…

    … Bailey at 37% here, leading in a fourth poll…

    Plus, Bailey is taking his “E”-Van-Gel-“Eye”-Cal tent revival bus tour to all 102 counties.

    Some might call that momentum.


  4. - So_Ill - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:17 am:

    I still wonder what would’ve happened had Irvin ran an authentic race on his actual record and not the biggest fraud campaign in history.


  5. - Publius - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:17 am:

    At this point they will call the general election at 1 minute past 7pm for the Democrats in most cases.


  6. - Baloneymous - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:18 am:

    With this fourth poll, Bailey keeps moving past 30 and even getting closer to 40 (obviously if polling is accurate), while Irvin is stuck around 20. What a difference a couple weeks make. Stunning turnaround.


  7. - Socially DIstant Watcher - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:22 am:

    The big winner here is Dan Brady. If he can hold on, he’s there only hope.


  8. - DuPage Dad - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:22 am:

    Penny for Ken Griffin’s thoughts/dollars?


  9. - vern - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:23 am:

    Pretty goofy methodology choices but everything’s coming back Bailey+15 or so. Good polls, sketchy local polls, and sketchy national polls all showing the same result means we know what ballpark we’re in. There’s no standard campaign practice for making up 15 points in 2 weeks, all Irvin can do is empty the oppo book and pray.

    I’m less willing to draw any conclusions from the Senate numbers, those have been all over the map and voters really don’t know anything about any of the candidates. Knuckleball race, anything could happen.


  10. - Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:26 am:

    You can question any one poll’s methodology all day. But 3, 4 in a row showing relatively consistent results? That’s a trend.

    Sure looking like the Irvin slate will be a colossal and expensive failure. And if Hubbard and Devore win? Hoo boy. As Ozzy said we’re going off the rails on a crazy train.


  11. - Streator Curmudgeon - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:28 am:

    With these numbers for Bailey, can a Trump endorsement be near?


  12. - Dance Band on the Titanic - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:30 am:

    Gee, guess the Tribune bump alone isn’t going to put Schimpf over the top.


  13. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:32 am:

    Today was possibly not a good day for the Irvin campaign in that SCOTUS did not issue the abortion case ruling. That’s more time in which he doesn’t release a statement. Bailey and other anti-abortion candidates can keep defining themselves/attacking Irvin’s scripted silence, as time is almost up in this race.


  14. - Norseman - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:34 am:

    The wind is definitely not blowing in Irvin’s favor. I hope he enjoyed the ride he got for selling his soul.


  15. - Grimlock - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:35 am:

    Will Trump endorse Bailey, given that Bailey is likely to lose in November?


  16. - Bruce( no not him) - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:35 am:

    Between Bailey and Sullivan almost 50% of the vote.
    Downstate seems to be leading.


  17. - Concerned Observer - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:38 am:

    Just for the sake of argument, let’s say the final numbers are like these.

    When we do the post-mortem, will we be looking at a ‘turning point’? Or was it always thus - Bailey had it the whole way, despite the Irvin dollars, and in part thanks to the Pritzker cash?


  18. - Middle Way - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:41 am:

    A Bailey-Hubbard ticket, for a moderate conservative…please pass the hemlock!


  19. - Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:42 am:

    -When we do the post-mortem, will we be looking at a ‘turning point’? Or was it always thus-

    The Dem money certainly helps, but I think it will be voter enthusiasm and perceived personal conviction vs mushy dishonesty.


  20. - Real - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:48 am:

    -Republicans have completely lost their minds-

    The ones voting for Irvin would fit more into this category. At least you know who Bailey is. Irvin on the other hand you have no clue because he changes each day.


  21. - Homebody - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:49 am:

    Irvin ran a Jeb Bush style campaign, and is getting Jeb Bush style results.


  22. - Illinois - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:50 am:

    Campaigns are about energy - who has it, who doesn’t. Bailey has it and has been underestimated from day one. He could make a general election closer than the wise guys think.


  23. - McGuppin - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:50 am:

    I’m less than impressed with the “vaunted” Griffin political operation. Are there mostly Rauner folks? Who’s driving this train? I can’t help but wonder where KG spends his general election $ if all his horses lose in the primary. Or does he pick up his remaining toys and go home? Many questions.


  24. - So_Ill - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:53 am:

    ==He could make a general election closer than the wise guys think.==

    Does he support a single policy that polls over 50%?

    If Trump lost by 17 points in 2016 and 17 points in 2020, how could anyone really think this guy has a legitimate chance?


  25. - DougChicago - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:54 am:

    The Illinois GOP will once again snatch defeat from the jaws of at least a possible victory. And with two or more candidates at the top of the ticket so fundamentally out of step with the vast majority of Illinois voters, good congressional and legislative candidates will go down the drain as well.

    The commentators will need to come up with a new adjective to describe how blue Illinois is — cobalt doesn’t seem to do justice anymore.

    Dan Prof(i)t wins the lotto.

    But I will cast my Republican across the board ballot as I always have and await the day I retire and depart.


  26. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 10:55 am:

    ===Bailey has it and has been underestimated from day one.===

    That’s wholly inaccurate.

    The monies, first by the DGA, and later by Uihlein, allowed the core Trumpkin, old, angry, white voter to find Bailey. It was always a question to the money, not just a message to Trumpkin voters.

    ===He could make a general election closer than the wise guys think.===

    Did Trump get more popular in Illinois all of a sudden?

    It’s not an accident the DGA and Pritzker are pushing who Bailey is, and Bailey embracing that DGA help. The problem is the voter universe will now include folks who will be anti-Trump who voted that way and will still vote that way.

    By the way… close… losing is losing, winners make policy. Ask Dan Proft.


  27. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 11:05 am:

    Frankly, with this new poll, I’m starting to think that I might not need or, more importantly, want a full-on Trump nod. This isn’t three weeks and millions of dollars ago. Then again, he’s raised a lot of hopes among the faithful.


  28. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 11:06 am:

    == Bailey has it and has been underestimated from day one. ==

    In which estimation? Many people on here (hi!) always said Bailey had a shot. And Griffin didn’t give Irvin $50M for the primary bc he thought it was gonna be easy.


  29. - Clueless - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 11:10 am:

    A vote for Bailey is a vote for JB.


  30. - John Rodgers - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 11:10 am:

    “Frankly, with this new poll, I’m starting to think that I might not need or, more importantly, want a full-on Trump nod. This isn’t three weeks and millions of dollars ago. Then again, he’s raised a lot of hopes among the faithful.

    Quite frankly, Rich. I think it’s quite a shame that the DGA + Bailey + Proft destroyed Irvin and his name. With his face running all over state in a negative way, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s finished for life. He’s been RUINED.


  31. - John Rodgers - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 11:10 am:

    A vote for Bailey is a vote for JB


  32. - SAP - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 11:12 am:

    I just hope Pritzker isn’t out-cuting himself. If Bailey beats him in the general after getting his support in the primary, the Rauner years will look like a day at the beach. I underestimated Bailey the same way I underestimated Trump 6 years ago.


  33. - John Rodgers - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 11:12 am:

    Irvins name has been ruined, with all the sham “pay to play” crap and the other lies, he’s done. He’s been run through the mud because of Bailey, Pritzker, Proft and their trumpy crew.


  34. - anon2 - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 11:15 am:

    Another sign about how far the GOP has moved to the right: Kathy Salvi is considered the more moderate candidate compared to Hubbard.


  35. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 11:15 am:

    ===With his face running all over state in a negative way===

    Poor fella.

    He went negative early and hard, and he flat-out lied about two of his opponents (which was all pointed out here numerous times). This is a statewide campaign. He knew or should’ve known at least some of what he was getting into.

    The only person I feel bad for is his ex-girlfriend. She didn’t ask to be dragged into this.


  36. - Left of what - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 11:15 am:

    I don’t think this is a turnaround. Undecideds are breaking doe Bailey. There is a Bailey and non-bailey vote. When you have a crowded field and that dynamic the anti vote gets split among multiple candidates. It seems people thought there would be an Irvin and non Irvin vote, which would make him the main contender, didn’t happen.


  37. - AC - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 11:15 am:

    ==I think it’s quite a shame that the DGA + Bailey + Proft destroyed Irvin and his name.==

    Irvin did that to himself.


  38. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 11:16 am:

    ===I’m starting to think that I might not need or, more importantly, want a full-on Trump nod. This isn’t three weeks and millions of dollars ago. Then again, he’s raised a lot of hopes among the faithful.===

    Had a discussion yesterday on this, Mary Miller really needs that appearance by “Elvis” and “Elvis” telling folks “Mary is my candidate”

    While Bailey has promised “Elvis”, and Pritzker and the DGA already have a picture and Bailey’s words to “Elvis”, so all Bailey gets with sharing a stage with “Elvis” is more visuals for negative ads, if Bailey dies prevail, starting in July.

    Rabine was the only other candidate in that field that had Trump (kinda-sorta) bona fides, and that never materialized as a campaign prong for Rabine to push his candidacy, at least in paid media.

    Tent revivals rely on the magic of conjuring up real faith and using that faith to elevate the preacher. The preacher that is Bailey might not need the magic to keep the faithful in his tent.

    I’d like to see how Mary Miller utilizes a visit, so…


  39. - John Rodgers - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 11:17 am:

    ===Poor fella.===

    Irvin will be lucky to win another election in his life with all this nonsense.


  40. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 11:17 am:

    Also, most of the professional Dems I’ve talked to have long believed that Bailey would win the nomination. But Dems have known Republicans better than they’ve known themselves for years now.


  41. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 11:17 am:

    John, nobody is entitled to win other elections in their lives.


  42. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 11:19 am:

    The “Undecided” number in the Governor’s race is starting to come way down and it looks like all of those are breaking Bailey’s way. The bottom line is that Irvin completely blew his campaign. He never came across as genuine because he flip flopped all over the place from what he was publicly on record supporting. I guess they thought they could just pretend that his past didn’t exist and that the Red Sea would part when he entered the race and he would walk right through.


  43. - John Rodgers - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 11:19 am:

    I suppose. But it is very unfortunate, I knocked on doors for Irvin in his mayoral bid.


  44. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 11:20 am:

    ===I knocked on doors for Irvin in his mayoral bid===

    Icarus comes to mind.


  45. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 11:21 am:

    === A vote for Bailey is a vote for JB===

    So the GOP base is wrong? That’s not how you win a primary, telling the core base voters they ain’t right. This is where the campaign is showing it’s failing and that they are behind.

    === Irvins name has been ruined, with all the sham “pay to play” crap and the other lies, he’s done. He’s been run through the mud because…===

    When one can’t recognize their own oppo, these things happen. Politics ain’t bean bag. Irvin signed up to be a candidate.

    === Irvin will be lucky to win another election in his life with all this nonsense.===

    I doubt that.

    Aurora *seems* to think Irvin is doing a good job.

    Who exactly can beat Irvin for mayor?


  46. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 11:25 am:

    ===Icarus comes to mind.===

    Indeed. Why?

    It’s not like ANY of the oppo on Irvin, or the praise Irvin heaped on Pritzker, or the words Irvin used during BLM are all “new” to Irvin… Irvin, himself, knew his own oppo… Irvin feeling it “on all sides”… the sun is much hotter and more intense when flying those wings of feathers and wax so close.


  47. - JSI - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 11:38 am:

    Rich, when do we get to start talking about an independent bid for Governor?


  48. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 11:48 am:

    == with all the sham “pay to play” crap and the other lies==

    “Sham”, huh?

    No one lied about Irvin more than Irvin himself. Remember calling the National Guard?


  49. - Socially DIstant watcher - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 11:50 am:

    @JSI: you just did.

    To run as an independent, you can’t take a partisan ballot in the primary. So plan ahead.


  50. - CubsFan16 - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 11:50 am:

    Now that Bailey is a “done deal”, GOP’s best scenario is Devore and Hubbard avoiding the general election ballot. If your slate is Bailey, Salvi, Kim, Demmer, Theresi, and Brady, you only have one liability. If it’s Bailey, Hubbard, Devore, Demmer, Theresi, and Brady….oh boy.


  51. - Highland IL - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 11:51 am:

    This is more proof that the MAGA crowd has taken over the IL GOP. The super minority couldn’t or wouldn’t distance themselves from the Eastern Bloc and are paying the ultimate price.


  52. - former cubs fan - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 12:00 pm:

    perhaps this election will be the proof everybody needs that Mike Z isn’t the political genius Illinois Republicans needed, but who was thrust upon them by the other genius, Bruce Rauner.


  53. - The Dude Abides - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 12:02 pm:

    One thing I have to give Bailey credit for is he’s not being pretentious. He’s telling everyone exactly who he is. He appeals to a lot of Conservatives. Is Illinois ready to elect a strong pro life candidate? I think not.


  54. - vern - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 12:04 pm:

    === I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s finished for life. He’s been RUINED ===

    There’s always his successful law practice, and he’s going to make six figures as mayor for a few more years, and there’s that LLC in Virginia. He’ll be fine.

    Honestly he’ll probably be better off. He doesn’t seem to enjoy running for Governor, so likely wouldn’t enjoy having the job. Most people go their entire lives never being elected to anything. On balance, winning elections probably “ruins” more people than losing them does.


  55. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 12:06 pm:

    Holy elitism, Batman. Do Irvin and his supporters think he can be as phony as he is and entitled to win? It’s an insult, to the GOP base.


  56. - God's Country - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 12:09 pm:

    ===Rich, when do we get to start talking about an independent bid for Governor?===

    Filing for Independent Candidates ends on July 11th. They need 25,000 good signatures to be on the ballot. That ship ain’t sailing anytime soon.


  57. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 12:11 pm:

    ===the proof===

    Elections aren’t proof of anything dealing with campaigns or campaign apparatus or leadership.

    You can run an utterly miserable campaign, and you can win.

    You can run a flawless, perfect campaign, and you can lose.

    Granted, your chances of winning increase 10 fold by running a good campaign, but…

    This race, this field, these candidates, the DGA, Pritzker…

    The only proof I’ve seen of poor work done by the Irvin Camp?

    That’s the easiest thing.

    Like “Apollo 13” and the mistake made well before the mission began, the faulty part was what detailed that mission…

    … the real lack of understanding… Irvin’s own oppo, the real overall of quotes, voting record, business/law “things”, that package… so much of the headwind Irvin faced and is facing now begins and ends with the choice of Irvin as the candidate…

    … and I say that as one who continually has praised Mayor Irvin time and time again.

    I’m sure Z cares “less than less” to any thoughts, sentences, words I have towards him or this race, but the only proof is that an un-vetted candidate with real issues in a fiercely partisan primary faces significant challenges in a purity contest.

    Z will cash his check all the same.


  58. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 12:14 pm:

    ===when do we get to start talking about===

    You can talk about it anytime you want. But I won’t be unless and until there’s an actual and viable candidate.


  59. - Left of what - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 12:15 pm:

    Is it that Irvin’s crew made a ton of mistakes or is it that his brand of politics is out of phase with the base?


  60. - ArchPundit - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 12:17 pm:

    ===When we do the post-mortem, will we be looking at a ‘turning point’?

    I think when Uihlein put in money it allowed Bailey to keep his name recognition up.

    One thing glossed over is that Bailey isn’t a bad candidate. He can stay on message and even while he goes negative, he comes off as an optimist for the future and that’s why he has been able to resonate with the Republican base.


  61. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 12:19 pm:

    ===You can run a flawless, perfect campaign, and you can lose===

    If you work as hard and smart as the some of the best losing candidates you can make a good buck out in the business world. It’s one reason why politics is such a crazy thing. Work your tail off night and day, 7 days a week and still lose.


  62. - Proud Papa Bear - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 12:26 pm:

    “When we do the post-mortem, will we be looking at a ‘turning point’?”
    To me, it was Pritzker’s anti-Bailey (wink-wink) ad. One of the most brilliant strokes of political gamesmanship I’ve ever seen.
    Irvin’s leaked texts were the finishing blow.

    But if signs could vote, Soloman is running away with this, at least in Crystal Lake. /s


  63. - Big Dipper - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 12:28 pm:

    ==But I will cast my Republican across the board ballot as I always have and await the day I retire and depart.==

    Enjoy Alabama.


  64. - ArchPundit - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 12:28 pm:

    ==Is it that Irvin’s crew made a ton of mistakes or is it that his brand of politics is out of phase with the base?

    Both. He’s not a true believer which made the sale harder, but he also focused on crime in a primary where that isn’t the biggest issue for most. It might have been an okay general election issue, but it doesn’t distinguish him from his rivals in any real way. So do you want the guy who seems like a squish and is good on crime or do you want the true believer and is good on crime?


  65. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 12:29 pm:

    ===I underestimated Bailey the same way I underestimated Trump 6 years ago.===

    Trump lost the popular vote, twice.


  66. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 12:33 pm:

    Irvin’s focus on crime was trying to make a virtue of necessity; it was basically the only issue where he could front as a conservative Tuff guy without alienating the General Election vote.


  67. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 12:34 pm:

    ===Is it that Irvin’s crew made a ton of mistakes or is it that his brand of politics is out of phase with the base?===

    Neither

    The candidate was flawed in ways that the candidate could be attacked by all sides on who he was, far more than any policy or political thought to policy.

    I woulda thought Irvin “the mayor” and eating and owning the lane that wasn’t in competition with a Bailey or Sullivan tilting Right was where 37% could be found.

    Then again… no one is asking me anything about a campaign, let alone writing me checks, Griffin included.


  68. - Pundent - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 12:43 pm:

    Should any of this really surprise us? We learned from an earlier poll that 67% of Republican voters in this state believe “the big lie.” If you are, as Bill Barr put it, “detached from reality” why not believe that Darren Bailey has a shot? The Republican party continues to apply purity tests to it’s candidates. You can argue all you want about the importance of that but Bailey passes the test and Irvin likely doesn’t. Feeling good about, and identifying with the candidate, “trumps” electability.


  69. - Lester Holt’s Mustache - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 12:44 pm:

    == Is Illinois ready to elect a strong pro life candidate? I think not.==

    Bailey is closer to Mary Miller than he is Rodney Davis. He’s also strong on Trump being the REAL winner of the 2020 election, kicking Chicago out of Illinois, taking horse dewormer to treat Covid and “face masks are an assault on mah liberty”. Being strongly pro-life is actually one of Bailey’s more reasonable positions.


  70. - Rabid - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 12:52 pm:

    politicians that signed up with team Irvin, reality check


  71. - Pundent - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 12:56 pm:

    =Will Trump endorse Bailey, given that Bailey is likely to lose in November?=

    Yes. Trump is looking for surrogates that will keep him relevant and minimize not only the events of 1/6 but the criminal/civil fallout to come. Ne needs and wants defenders throughout the party and in every state. Bailey fills that role. It’s not a guarantee of a Trump endorsement. But Trump’s interest are far more personal than political.


  72. - Moby - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 12:56 pm:

    ===Trump lost the popular vote, twice.===

    Haha…ouch.


  73. - JS Mill - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 12:57 pm:

    =Downstate seems to be leading.=

    You may want to check the numbers (if you believe in them) because that is a mathematical loser by epic proportions in the general.

    And to those saying Bailey is running and “authentic” campaign, I beg to differ. He is staying on message for sure (if you can understand him when he speaks) but it is not authentic.

    He is a very wealthy farmer that has enriched himself through government subsidies yet is against it for those that actually need it.

    He is anti-abortion not pro-life given his record on COVID so let’s stop the pro-life talk. He isn’t.

    He and his sweetie DeVore have caused incalculable harm to many public servants because of their lies. Not very christian either.

    He agreed to wear. a mask after his anti mask grandstanding. Although it was the correct action, he is not honest to facts.

    I look forward to his run a governor. I predict it will make Rauner’s beating look like gentle caresses from his momma.


  74. - Roadrager - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 12:59 pm:

    ==Holy elitism, Batman. Do Irvin and his supporters think he can be as phony as he is and entitled to win? It’s an insult, to the GOP base.==

    Wait until you find out who that base wants to be president. Heck, wait until you find out who a solid chunk of that base thinks is the president right now.


  75. - Left of what - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 1:04 pm:

    =Will Trump endorse Bailey, given that Bailey is likely to lose in November?=

    I highly doubt it, or would vbe very surprised if he did. Trumps endorsements are usually where he thinks the candidate will have a shot at winning. He doesn’t want to pick losers and has already had mixed success this primary season. Bailey seems to have what it takes to win a modern gop primary, but a general in a +15 Dem state? I don’t think so.


  76. - Friendly Bob Adams - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 1:12 pm:

    My opinion is that Irvin should have started off positive, i.e., he’s got a solid record as the mayor of a pretty large city, he’s had white, Black and Latino support, he’s enjoyed the support of Democrats and Republicans, he’s a coalition builder… all of which is true. There should have been a better way to characterize his actions during the protests, e.g., maintaining order while allowing for free expression.

    Sorry that he got tangled up in such a lousy campaign, but as many have noted, he made his bed and has to lie in it.


  77. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 1:25 pm:

    It’s not that Bailey is inauthentic. It’s that Irvin is blatantly inauthentic. And he runs from the base and important questions, like he did from Ives. Many can spot the big phony. For years Trump pushed birtherism and walked a right wing walk. He still is who he was coming down the escalator seven years ago today or thereabout, to announce his candidacy. If Irvin loses, it’s a lesson to aspiring candidates, to more or less be themselves.


  78. - Pundent - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 1:27 pm:

    =When we do the post-mortem, will we be looking at a ‘turning point’?=

    I’m not so sure there was a turning point as much as there was a failure to read the room. Perhaps the turning point was the injection of Uihlein and/or Pritzker/DGA money. But maybe it wouldn’t have mattered.

    Clearly Jim Durkin and the “establishment” Republicans are out of step with the voters within their own party. Accusing Pritzker of “meddling” likely didn’t help as it was an affront to Bailey and his supporters. It likely energized the base and got Uihlein and Proft more engaged than they might otherwise be.

    The bigger post mortem question is where does the heart and sole of the ILGOP lie? It’s clearly not with Durkin and the party establishment who may be on the verge of being rejected. But I called that out months ago when Durkin decided to sit on the sidelines as Bailey emerged as the standard bearer of the ILGOP. And maybe that was the turning point. While I don’t see Bailey winning in November, I do see him having a hand in reshaping the ILGOP. The party cultivated that and they will reap what they sow. It doesn’t portend well for future statewide elections.


  79. - TJ - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 1:36 pm:

    Man, did Irvin really end up being a purely astroturf candidate.


  80. - DougChicago - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 1:59 pm:

    =Enjoy Alabama=

    I will. Or maybe Texas. I hear a lot of big companies are moving there.


  81. - New Day - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 2:05 pm:

    Trafalgar had Trump winning so there’s that.


  82. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 2:08 pm:

    ===Trafalgar had Trump winning so there’s that.===

    The popular vote? Huh. Really?

    - DougChicago -

    The reason you can’t leave now?

    Can’t find a job where you can earn enough to retire?

    I’m always amazed that the folks “when I retire” when they should leave now.


  83. - Real - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 2:20 pm:

    No wonder Ken Griffin gave those angry remarks about JB not go long ago.


  84. - Real - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 2:32 pm:

    -. The party cultivated that and they will reap what they sow. It doesn’t portend well for future statewide elections.-

    It already hasn’t been going well for them under the current establishment. So I don’t see how a new establishment is supposed to be worse off if it is providing the base what they want opposed to the lukewarm offerings of the current establishment.


  85. - Real - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 2:39 pm:

    Irvin launched his campaign with a big chip on his shoulder. When other campaigns would love to have an opportunity to speak with the press and media to get their message out Irvin was hiding and putting out t.v. ad’s but not telling what exactly he wanted to do. There was no hunger in his campaign just ego where he is walking around thinking he had it won just because the richest man in the state was funding him.


  86. - DougChicago - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 2:39 pm:

    =I’m always amazed that the folks “when I retire” when they should leave now.=

    Well, you know some folks have careers (other than commenting almost constantly on chat boards) that they are reasonably close to completing and that, quite frankly, could not be easily replicated elsewhere. And Illinois is home. But its governing political elites are willing to tax anything that moves and it increasingly has a far-left policy disposition that is just no longer to my taste. And that seems unlikely to change any time soon if ever. So that seems like a fairly reasoned explanation why a sensible person would stay as long as possible to make a change and then, having seen no change being made, conclude that an orderly exit is necessary.

    Hope that helps. Now your mom wants you to clean up the basement and take off your tinfoil hat.


  87. - Roadrager - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 2:44 pm:

    ==Trafalgar had Trump winning so there’s that.==

    Well, when you factor in the “social desirability bias” of people not saying out loud ahead of time that they would storm the Capitol to upend the election in favor of him, he very nearly did.


  88. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 2:45 pm:

    ===Well, you know some folks have careers (other than commenting almost constantly on chat boards)===

    … and yet you find yourself here… commenting

    ===And Illinois is home===

    No it’s not, you’re leaving, right after you retire. It’s not home.

    ===So that seems like a fairly reasoned explanation why a sensible person would stay as long as possible to make a change and then, having seen no change being made, conclude that an orderly exit is necessary.===

    Illinois is home, but you’re gonna leave anyway, you can’t find work to have your lifestyle after retirement, so you stay miserable because looking for work that will pay what you could retire on isn’t possible elsewhere.

    === Now your mom wants you to clean up the basement and take off your tinfoil hat.===

    There’s another mom joke available, but this is a family blog…. as you, yourself… are commenting.

    :)

    Just don’t pull a John Kass and retire and move to Chicago, lol


  89. - Pundent - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 2:57 pm:

    =But its governing political elites are willing to tax anything that moves and it increasingly has a far-left policy disposition that is just no longer to my taste.=

    Well as the saying goes, wherever you go, there you are. And I’ll let you in on a secret. You’ll find people complaining in every state about one thing or another. I’ve got friends and family in Texas which is getting a lot of attention these days. Down there they hate the lousy schools, unreliable electric grid, and Ted Cruz (and some even vote for him). If “far left policies” bug you by all means go. Don’t suffer any longer than you have to. But I can assure you that no matter where you find yourself, you’ll be forced to live with yourself.


  90. - Left of what - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 3:10 pm:

    ===Well, you know some folks have careers (other than commenting almost constantly on chat boards)===

    If there’s one thing all Americans regardless of political affiliation love, it’s posting.


  91. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 3:12 pm:

    === posting.===

    I, like most of us, am a commenter (and a guest here)

    Rich posts things.

    Sorry. It’s just a “thing”. I don’t post anything. I comment.


  92. - Lincoln Lad - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 3:16 pm:

    I think some of the Bailey support is just people not wanting Irvin. He’s clearly a phony and he’s been a disaster when interviewed time after time. Bailey is the alternate choice for those voting against Irvin.


  93. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 3:23 pm:

    =and yet you find yourself here… commenting=

    I’ll put my number of comments up against your obsessive freak-like volume any day of the week.


  94. - JS Mill - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 3:26 pm:

    =Well, you know some folks have careers (other than commenting almost constantly on chat boards) that they are reasonably close to completing and that, quite frankly, could not be easily replicated elsewhere.=

    Wait, I thought the anti-life southern states like Texas was the land of milk and honey. If Illinois uscks so bad and these states are so much better, someone with your obvious talents should have no problem finding suitable employment to continue your lifestyle.

    End yet you seemingly can’t so it must not be that great.

    That or you are just another hypocrite.

    =elites=

    Like the wealthy Bailey?


  95. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 3:29 pm:

    If your career can’t be matched elsewhere, your lifestyle maintained elsewhere, but you still think Illinois is terrible, you’re likely a phony, but it’s a phony to yourself.


  96. - Ducky LaMoore - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 3:44 pm:

    “I will. Or maybe Texas. I hear a lot of big companies are moving there.”

    My nephew believed all the lies and moved to Texas. He hated it so much, he moved to Germany. Germany. There is a lot more to the story. But it makes me smile.


  97. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 3:45 pm:

    == Well, you know some folks have careers (other than commenting almost constantly on chat boards)==

    He says on his third comment today…

    == could not be easily replicated elsewhere==

    Which, of course, is the point; every complaint about IL’s “business climate” is a code for “we need to let bosses treat their employees worse”. Everyone who makes that argument is, whether they know it or not, saying that working folks should take a pay cut to lure another corporate HQ to the Loop. And my response is, simply:

    You first.

    You’ve decided not to, that IL can, in fact, protect your livelihood better than another state could. You look pretty smart to me.


  98. - Original Rambler - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 4:04 pm:

    I wish all these people who are leaving (or who have left) Illinois would just go and take their “observations” with them. I’m sure their new neighbors would appreciate hearing them. My family and I? We’re staying for a variety of reasons. Illinois isn’t perfect but its advantages outweigh its detriments. This gets reinforced with every poll I read and election result like yesterday in SC.

    To the post, Griffin has been quiet for quite awhile. No public statements on anything. He has to be semi-apoplectic.


  99. - sal-says - Wednesday, Jun 15, 22 @ 5:34 pm:

    == Fourth poll has Bailey in the lead, this time by 18 points ==

    Scary times; these.


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