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*** UPDATED x2 *** Lipinski gears up for indy bid

Monday, Jul 11, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From Dan Lipinski’s recent softball interview on WLS

For 16 years, I believed that I represented my constituents who put me there. I was not there to represent the Democratic Party and take directions from from Nancy Pelosi.

Hmm.

* Wikipedia

In 2004 Lipinski’s father ran for re-nomination in the Democratic primary. After easily winning the nomination, the elder Lipinski announced his retirement. As the Democratic committeeman for Chicago’s 23rd Ward—which is virtually coextensive with the Chicago portion of the 3rd district—he was able to persuade the state Democratic Party to select his son to replace him on the ballot. The move was somewhat controversial; since the younger Lipinski had not lived regularly in Illinois since 1989 or run for elected office before, but it allowed him to sidestep the Democratic primary—the real contest in this heavily Democratic district.

Somewhat controversial? Putting it mildly.

And then he breezed through the primaries with strong regular Democratic organization support (including and especially Speaker Madigan) until Marie Newman beat him in 2020, while Madigan was somewhat otherwise occupied.

* Back to the interview

Q: Do you realize how unhappy this news makes Sean Casten?

A: Well, look, I’ve heard from Democrats, they have been pleading with me not to run because I’m going to hurt Sean Casten, Democratic Party nominee. But I’ve also heard from Republicans who have said that they’ve they’ve done a poll, they’ve seen a poll that shows that I’m going to hurt the Republicans more than than the Democrats. So I have both. I have officials and operatives in both parties urging me not to not to run, but I think that just shows that they are, they’re both scared.

* Victory margins in the newly drawn 6th CD

    2020
    Biden: +10.89%
    Durbin: +11.56%

    2018
    Pritzker: +5.06%
    Raoul: +3.15%
    White: +37.7%
    Mendoza: +17.56%
    Frerichs: +9.44%

    2016
    Trump: -8.29%
    Duckworth: +5.79%
    Mendoza: +9.12%

That’s a big difference from the old district, which Pritzker, Raoul, Frerichs, Duckworth, Mendoza (2016), Quinn and Lisa Madigan all lost by varying margins.

* Politico

Former Congressman Dan Lipinski said his supporters gathered more than 5,400 signatures to get him on the ballot in November (he needs 5,000) and that he’ll announce today if he’s going to run for Congress as an independent in the newly drawn 6th Congressional District.

“Over the past week I’ve heard from people all over that they’re fed up with the 2 parties & that our country needs a new, better direction,” he tweeted.

* Another tweet…


*** UPDATE 1 *** And he’s out

However, after careful consideration I have decided to forgo a run this year. Instead, I will focus my attention on helping build the emerging “Independents Movement.” I already have had discussions with U.S. Rep. Adam Kinzinger about teaming up in this effort. […]

The New York Times reported that a group of donors is looking to raise money and recruit Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin to run for president as an independent along with a Republican running mate. This group may also be looking to support candidates running for Congress in 2024 and perhaps start a new party.

*** UPDATE 1 *** An eagle-eyed reader pointed out that Lipinski said earlier this month that he’d taken a Democratic primary ballot in June. That would’ve disqualified him from running for office for anything this year other than as a Democrat

A person who (i) filed a Statement of Candidacy for a partisan office as a qualified primary voter of an established political party or (ii) who voted the ballot of an established political party at a general primary election may not file a Statement of Candidacy as a candidate of a different established political party, a new political party, or as an Independent candidate for a partisan office to be filled at the general election immediately following the general primary for which the person filed the statement or voted the ballot.

       

54 Comments
  1. - Amalia - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:12 am:

    don’t think Newman should have run against Dan. But think Dan should stand down now. risk is electing someone who would actually vote with Republicans all of the time.


  2. - SpiDem - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:16 am:

    The dude was born on third base, thought he hit a triple, got thrown out taking too big of a lead off the bag, and now wants to take it out on the umpire.

    He’s still be in office today if he had represented his constituents. But he never really cared about that.


  3. - Hannibal Lecter - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:16 am:

    C’mon Dan. You have no chance in heck. Enjoy your retirement.


  4. - TJ - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:17 am:

    So Dan is going to split the Dem/left vote and likely tip the election to the GOP because of his ego.

    Way to go. /s


  5. - Hannibal Lecter - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:18 am:

    There’s also no way that his petitions survive a challenge. He only submitted more than 400 over the minimum. Even the most top shelf petition circulators can’t be successful at that rate.


  6. - Vote Quimby - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:23 am:

    Dan L gives draft dodgers a bad name.


  7. - vern - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:24 am:

    The “post-Congressional career” section of that Wiki is pretty thin. It would be surprising for a multi-term moderate Congressman to not land on his feet, most of them make more money lobbying or “consulting” than they did in Congress. He’s either broke or delusional, but probably a little of both.


  8. - Ron Burgundy - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:24 am:

    Dan wants to take us back to the “good old days” of blatant nepotism, I guess. No one puts up this much of a production without going through with it, so he’s running. Seems congratulations for Keith Pekau will be in order, because there’s no way Lipinski wins.


  9. - Just one word. - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:26 am:

    Go Away. Please. No. I mean, reeaally go away.


  10. - Ron Burgundy - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:28 am:

    -So I have both. I have officials and operatives in both parties urging me not to not to run, but I think that just shows that they are, they’re both scared.-

    Or it might show they think you’re a jerk that can’t read the room, er district.


  11. - Roadrager - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:35 am:

    Handing a swing district to a die-hard Trumpist because you’re a pre-Vatican II Catholic who can’t stand to see anyone marginally left of you hold the seat Daddy and The Machine gave you for Christmas one year.

    Has Dan tried applying for a job with the White House instead?


  12. - JS Mill - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:36 am:

    =White: +37.7%=

    Jessie White is a political juggernaut.

    =C’mon Dan. You have no chance in heck.=

    I wouldn’t go that far. I grew up in what is a part of the district. There is a large, conservative (traditional not wacko) electorate in that district. They are more moderate than Peckau and could give Lipinski some real support.

    I think there is some chance, I wouldn’t go so far as to put money on it though, but the 6th has a moderate republican/centrist democratic element that could make this interesting.


  13. - Frumpy White Guy - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:38 am:

    Two pro life anti Immigration candidates running against Pro Choice Casten.


  14. - DeeLay - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:40 am:

    Stay home Dan.
    Don’t give Peckau a boost.


  15. - twowaystreet - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:42 am:

    “We need to offset gerrymandering in other states and maximize seats in Illinois.” -Dems

    “Hold my beer.” - Lipinski


  16. - Dan Johnson - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:42 am:

    Too bad we don’t have a runoff. Or a ranked choice ballot with an instant runoff so the majority vote can’t get split. Maybe we should.


  17. - Donnie Elgin - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:43 am:

    Huge boost for Keith Pekau’s chances


  18. - Hannibal Lecter - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:44 am:

    =C’mon Dan. You have no chance in heck.=

    === I wouldn’t go that far. ===

    I would. As someone who knows the district very well, I can tell you that he has no shot. And he wont make the ballot!


  19. - Roman - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:45 am:

    I’ll agree with Lipinski on this much: It’s unclear whether his candidacy hurts Casten or Pekau most. I think it hurts Casten a little bit, but would love to see polling.

    If Lipinski had anything bordering on an enthusiastic base during his tenure it was from right-to-lifers — everyone else just sort of tolerated him, especially as the vaunted constituents services operation his father built waned. I can see some older Dem voters from the old 3rd CD supporting him out of habit, but a lot of those southwest side precincts that made up the Lipinski core are not in the new district.


  20. - TheInvisibleMan - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:45 am:

    “I have officials and operatives in both parties urging me not to not to run”

    There’s an old saying that seems pretty apt to paraphrase here.

    - If someone else is a jerk to you, they’re a jerk. If *everyone* is a jerk to you, then maybe you’re the jerk.


  21. - Joe Bidenopolous - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:48 am:

    =“I will never understand the appeal of trump, especially to conservative christians.”=

    I mean, it’s a pretty simple explanation. They made a Faustian bargain to support him in exchange for judges, specifically Supreme Court Justices. And their calculus worked.


  22. - Nuke The Whales - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:48 am:

    ==He only submitted more than 400 over the minimum. Even the most top shelf petition circulators can’t be successful at that rate.==
    That photo is at what looks like a train station which would make me even more bearish on the chances of those holding up. Train station service areas are split between districts. While it was a low turnout primary, people already pulled primary ballots. Overlap in the number of people willing to sign a petition who already signed one for another candidate, and so on and so forth…


  23. - Joe Bidenopolous - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:49 am:

    Whoops, wrong thread, sorry folks.


  24. - Old IL Dude - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:49 am:

    I’m in IL-6. Doubt anyone would really vote for Dan Lipinski now who wouldn’t be voting for Keith Pekau, or simultaneously, anyone who would have been voting FOR Sean Casten would turn around and vote for Dan Lipinski.

    Just grateful that Newman is out of office, and before that was grateful that the white Todd Stroger (aka Dan L.) was out of office.


  25. - Amalia - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:51 am:

    He is a smart reflective person. someone hire him and he won’t run.


  26. - MisterJayEm - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:54 am:

    “Too bad we don’t have a runoff. Or a ranked choice ballot with an instant runoff so the majority vote can’t get split. Maybe we should.”

    I agree 100%.

    My question is whether the current SCOTUS would permit a voting mechanism that so accurately reflected the will of the people.

    – MrJM


  27. - Seats - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:55 am:

    I’m no expert but I feel like Roe will be a big factor with voters in November. I think he will hurt both fairly equally considering he will split the pro-life vote that don’t care for Trump around the same amount as he will hurt the Dem split based solely on he was a Dem before.


  28. - hisgirlfriday - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:56 am:

    @Amalia - Why did you think Dan did not deserve a Democratic primary challenge when Marie primaried him? He opposed Obama’s re-election in 2012, for Pete’s sake.

    Why can’t he find something else to do with his life after occupying a House seat for 16 years that he never earned on his own?

    Or is running as a spoiler candidate for the GOP something he is required to do to land a lobbying contract somewhere?


  29. - ;) - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 11:57 am:

    Lipinski can win; it won’t be easy and will require work like he hasn’t had to do before, but definitively suggesting otherwise just tells me you haven’t knocked a door in the area lately.


  30. - Jocko - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 12:03 pm:

    ‘Draft Dan’ sounds a lot better than their first choice ‘Save me from having to get a real job’


  31. - Dan Johnson - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 12:06 pm:

    Depressing question MisterJayEm…


  32. - Roadrager - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 12:06 pm:

    ==Lipinski can win; it won’t be easy and will require work like he hasn’t had to do before==

    So what you’re saying is “Lipinski can’t win.”


  33. - SAP - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 12:15 pm:

    You may feel a slight sting. That’s pride bleeping with you. Bleep pride. Pride only hurts, it never helps.


  34. - Roman - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 12:21 pm:

    Adding…If the old 3rd CD was preserved in redistricting and Newman was running for re-election against Pekau, I think a Lipinski indy candidacy would be much more disruptive. But 60 percent of the new 6th CD has no historic connection to Lipinski.


  35. - Three Dimensional Checkers - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 12:36 pm:

    Fine, but he has the run as the Lyndon LaRouche Democrat Party.


  36. - IL4Ever - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 12:42 pm:

    “Dan Lipinski is an anti-woman elitist whose daddy got him elected the first time.”

    Too long to put on a sign but if someone wants to make it I’ll put it in my yard in the district.


  37. - Screw Gerrymandering - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 12:43 pm:

    Leave it to Dan Lipinski to help out the republicans when the workers’ rights referendum is on the ballot.


  38. - Ron Burgundy - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 12:43 pm:

    -tells me you haven’t knocked a door in the area lately.-

    Something I would have in common with Dan, then.


  39. - Gerrymandering sucks - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 12:44 pm:

    Leave it to Dan Lipinski to play with the republicans once the workers’ rights referendum is on the ballot.


  40. - Suburban Mom - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 1:31 pm:

    How can we miss you if you won’t go away, Dan?


  41. - Huh? - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 1:40 pm:

    Dan - How can we miss you if you don’t stay away?


  42. - New Day - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 1:52 pm:

    I haven’t looked at the numbers yet or done any polling, but my guess is that the “Sean Casten is doomed” mantra of so many commenters is probably not correct.


  43. - Nick - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 2:03 pm:

    Dan is selfish spiteful and narcissistic

    And a wonderful example of why we shouldn’t make house seats a hereditary position


  44. - James - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 2:25 pm:

    If he wanted the seat he should have primaried Pekau.


  45. - Surly Dan - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 2:35 pm:

    I’m sure his anti-abortion platform will work wonders in a post-Roe world.


  46. - Shytown - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 3:45 pm:

    Sorry I’m so late to the party, but he needs to go away. And he better get more than 5400 signatures because there are plenty of folks who would love to knock him off the ballot.


  47. - MisterJayEm - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 5:25 pm:

    To the UPDATE: Area man, arrogant and entitled, gets the attention he craves, burns petition volunteers.

    – MrJM


  48. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 6:03 pm:

    Welp, to the update.

    “And that’s that”


  49. - Roadrager - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 6:06 pm:

    ==However, after careful consideration I have decided to forgo a run this year. Instead, I will focus my attention on helping build the emerging “Independents Movement.” I already have had discussions with U.S. Rep. Adam Kinzinger about teaming up in this effort. […]

    The New York Times reported that a group of donors is looking to raise money and recruit Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin to run for president as an independent along with a Republican running mate. This group may also be looking to support candidates running for Congress in 2024 and perhaps start a new party.==

    I don’t know whether to hoot or holler.


  50. - Ron Burgundy - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 6:17 pm:

    To the updates: We now return you to your regularly scheduled “No one cares, Dan” programming…


  51. - Amalia - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 6:53 pm:

    @hisgirlfriday, his rank on infrastructure committee was helpful. AND I’d rather spend the money against Republicans than have a primary fight. But, memo to Dan, your Independent movement of you and Kinzinger is anti choices. no thanks.


  52. - Just Sayin - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 8:20 pm:

    Maybe he run for Mayor next year.


  53. - Just Sayin - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 8:26 pm:

    Speaking of Mayors, the way Springfield’s Langfelder has been adamant about his view on mask mandates since fall 2020, he would also sound like another candidate for the “independents” movement like Dan and Adam.


  54. - Just Sayin - Monday, Jul 11, 22 @ 8:28 pm:

    ==Speaking of Mayors, the way Springfield’s Langfelder has been adamant about his view on mask mandates since fall 2020, he would also sound like another candidate for the “independents” movement like Dan and Adam.==

    Plus maybe infamous Springfield alderman Joe McMenamin too (DINO-Ward 7), who also seems to hate unions (at least the public ones, he might be ok with the trades) and their pensions too based on his time at City Council.


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