Proft releases his own poll
Thursday, Sep 29, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Press release…
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates recently completed a survey of 800 likely voters in the 2022 Illinois gubernatorial general election, and it is clear that the Pritzker vs. Bailey race is tightening significantly.
Some key takeaways:
- Pritzker previously was leading Bailey by 10 points in August, but Bailey has chopped that lead in half to 5 in September.
- Among “definite” voters, Pritzker is only up by 3 points, which is within margin of error.
- If you have an option of both candidates, Prizker’s lead is 3; if you’ve heard of both, Pritzker is up by only 1.
- Bailey is crushing it with independents, leading Pritzker by 12 points.
- Bailey is leading among all men by 2 points, while Pritzker leads with women by 12.
- Pritzker is underwater in both Total Approval (49% Approve vs. 50% Disapprove), and Strongly Disapprove (45%) vs. Strongly Approve (just 18%).
The poll’s margin of error is +/- 3.46%.
More here.
- filmmaker prof - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 2:20 pm:
And Trump really won the 2020 election.
- frustrated GOP - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 2:21 pm:
From a guy who doesn’t live here anymore that creates political hit pieces that look like newspapers. Yeah, not sure I’m buying his poll. I am wondering if he polled anyone above route 80
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 2:23 pm:
This is like your bookie telling you to spend more money “they’ll cover”, and they take your money anyway.
Proft sold this line to Uihlein… likely, lol
- The Dude Abides - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 2:25 pm:
Not buying this poll at all . I will be shocked if JB only wins by 3%.
- 47th Ward - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 2:25 pm:
On one hand, I have a hard time trusting anything Dan Proft says.
On the other hand, I have a hard time believing Fabrizio and Lee would let Proft ruin their reputation this way.
I’m not a pollster, and the info available doesn’t help me understand if this is legit or not. Can’t wait to learn more from some of the smarter commenters here.
- dan l - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 2:26 pm:
Well according to my own polling I am sexiest man alive among victoria’s secret models.
- low level - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 2:26 pm:
Hmmm… who do I trust? WGN who has been around for
100 years and has a solid reputation or Dan Profit, a hack who runs ads of crimes without permission from or consultation with the victims?
- Save Ferris - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 2:28 pm:
Dean Chambers now working for Pufnstuf Proft?
- Ron Burgundy - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 2:30 pm:
Noted writer of fiction says believe me this time.
- Donnie Elgin - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 2:36 pm:
Early voting start today - good timing on the poll showing Bailey closing in on JB
- DuPage Dad - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 2:37 pm:
The first thing on Dan Proft’s wiki page is “Florida resident” and its so accurate. It is one thing to be a principled Republican who takes issues and the pursuit of solutions seriously, its another to be a grifter like Proft. Ignore him.
- Demoralized - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 2:38 pm:
==good timing on the poll showing Bailey closing in on JB==
I’ve got some beachfront property in Arizona to sell you if you believe this poll.
- Socially DIstant watcher - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 2:39 pm:
Who cares if it’s accurate or not? Dems should knock on doors as if it’s true.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 2:40 pm:
=== Bailey closing in on JB===
lol
The poll is for Uihlein, not for voters, to keep at least 2-3 checks coming.
There’s no reason to believe a 12 point spread is Bailey closing a gap given Bailey’s negatives have been consistent
But, some people like fiction…
- G'Kar - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 2:41 pm:
Well not terrible, Fabrizio, Lee & Associates polling rates a B/C by 538: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/fabrizio-lee-associates/
- Bruce( no not him) - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 2:43 pm:
I’ve conducted my own poll, and It finds that Bailey will win by over 100%. Margin of error over 100%
/s
- Hot Taeks - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 2:46 pm:
I believe Fabrizio does very short text-based/ push polls. That being said, I wouldn’t just ignore the poll if you’re pro-Pritzker/ anti-Bailey. Average it with the WGN poll and you get like Pritzker +10. Now you can get fancy/ more correct and weigh the WGN poll more with it being higher quality and you get Pritzker +12.5 or so. Average it out and trust the Process!
- Demoralized - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 2:46 pm:
==Dems should knock on doors as if it’s true.==
I’ve not seen anything from the Governor other than a continued full frontal attack on Bailey. He ain’t letting up for anything. I don’t think he’s looking at polls to determine how he should approach this election. It’s full steam ahead.
- Roadrager - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 2:49 pm:
“I reject your reality, and replace it with my own.”
- Ron Burgundy - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 2:59 pm:
-I believe Fabrizio does very short text-based/ push polls.-
I’ve gotten texts recently purporting to be polls. When I can’t verify the organization from the information given, I ignore them. In this day and age of scams, who responds to those sorts of things without at least a little bit of thought?
- MisterJayEm - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 3:02 pm:
“I’m not a pollster, and the info available doesn’t help me understand if this is legit or not.”
FiveThirtyEight.com gives Fabrizio, Lee & Associates a provisional rating of B/C.
More on them here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/fabrizio-lee-associates/
Three observations:
1) The comparison with the earlier August poll does seem to be a legitimate apples to apples comparison.
2) A legitimate pollster can (and with enough polling WILL) occasionally produce a valid but outlying poll.
3) Unless I’m reading this wrong, the poll shows that Bailey has gained three points since August, Pritzker has lost two points since August, and Undecided has lost one point since August.
That would suggest that most of Bailey’s gains weren’t from previously undecided voters (pulling one point of his three point gain from them) but from previously Pritzker voters (purporting pull 2/3 of his new points from them).
That feels a little… 🤔
– MrJM
- Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 3:03 pm:
“I’ll show you. I’ll release a poll that still has Pritzker winning 4 times.”
- What's in a name? - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 3:05 pm:
@ Ron Burgundy
==who responds to those sorts of things without a little bit of thought?
It would appear Bailey supporters. I suspect “little thought” maybe a requirement.
- Politix - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 3:07 pm:
Anthony Fabrizio is an American Republican pollster and strategist - Thanks, Google. That’s all I needed to know.
- Arsenal - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 3:12 pm:
== good timing on the poll showing Bailey closing in on JB==
It’s just getting sad at this point.
If you think releasing this poll was timed for EV and not a defensive reaction to yesterday’s poll, you desperately need to touch some grass.
- New Day - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 3:22 pm:
Fabrizio is a real GOP pollster. That said, I wouldn’t take this to the bank. I agree with the commenter who said it’s probably about a ten point race.
- DougChicago - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 4:18 pm:
One imagines that a silent partner in Fabrizio, Lee & Associates is Cicero Dan Prof(i)t.
- Thomas Paine - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 4:31 pm:
Proft’s poll has the LV at 42% Democratic, 32% Republican.
That would be a seismic shift from 2018, when the electorate was 48% Democratic and 26% Republican.
It also doesn’t square with other polls that are public.
If Proft can explain why 250K Illinois voters switched from Democrat to Republican over the last four years and no one noticed, I am all ears.
Maybe the pollster can answer that one?
- Over It - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 4:33 pm:
this poll actually has Pritkzer up 8 with the libertarian on the ballot. that seems closer to actuality than wgn’s 15. i bet wgn’s oversampled college educated voters to get the 15 point margin
- Arsenal - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 4:54 pm:
== Proft’s poll has the LV at 42% Democratic, 32% Republican.
That would be a seismic shift from 2018, when the electorate was 48% Democratic and 26% Republican==
R midterm vs. D midterm.
I mean, probably not, but there is a potential explanation here.
- Steve Rogers - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 5:13 pm:
There’s a typo. It’s says the margin of error is 3.46%. I think they mean it’s 34.6%.
- Amalia - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 6:02 pm:
I do think it’s closer than it should be given the two candidates. Goddess help us if Mr. Haney gets elected.
- James - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 6:48 pm:
Proft writes just 18% strongly approve of J.B. But the actual poll has that number at 31%. Didn’t he JUST complain about WGN making that exact same mistake?
- btowntruth from forgottonia - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 10:49 pm:
12% lead by Bailey in independents?
In their dreams.
- mjtroll - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 10:55 pm:
I do not think is unreasonable to compare the polls forecasting a Democratic victory by a significant margin in 2016 Presidential election to the ones predicting a Democratic victory by substantial margin in the Illinois Governors race
- MisterJayEm - Thursday, Sep 29, 22 @ 11:50 pm:
“I do not think is unreasonable to compare the polls forecasting a Democratic victory by a significant margin in 2016 Presidential election to the ones predicting a Democratic victory by substantial margin in the Illinois Governors race”
Might be reasonable once you identify the Electoral College of Illinois — otherwise it’s reasonable to presume that you’re just another goof.
– MrJM